Coronavirus - the killer flu that will wipe us out? (Vol. 7)

[pquinn]

With the NHS figure you have to ignore the announcement figure and jump straight to the trend on the daily breakdown - numbers this week are settling to around 20 deaths per day, which probably means averaging low teens next week if the trend continues as it has for months.

There's likely to be a long tail though depending on whether on how long they count a positive test as relevant when someone is taking months to leave hospital, say due to massive brain damage.

[grumbledoak]

Robertj21a said:

Are you assuming that it will then give you immunity ?

I think that must be the default assumption pending evidence to the contrary.

[rover 623gsi]

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Edited by rover 623gsi on Sunday 12th July 09:29

[pquinn]

grumbledoak said:

Robertj21a said:

Are you assuming that it will then give you immunity ?

I think that must be the default assumption pending evidence to the contrary.

Put another way, despite endless screeching from some quarters about it being possible that there's no immunity, has there been a single proven case of reinfection? We've had months and millions of test subjects to give us data.

So far every possible reinfection seems to have been down to test glitches.

The only open question would be how long immunity might last, and what forms of immunity exist.

[grumbledoak]

pquinn said:

Put another way, despite endless screeching from some quarters about it being possible that there's no immunity, has there been a single proven case of reinfection? We've had months and millions of test subjects to give us data.

So far every possible reinfection seems to have been down to test glitches.

The only open question would be how long immunity might last, and what forms of immunity exist.

And our best guess is probably "the same as similar viruses" - several years.

[isaldiri]

grumbledoak said:

pquinn said:

The only open question would be how long immunity might last, and what forms of immunity exist.

And our best guess is probably "the same as similar viruses" - several years.

Well, that seems to depend on how severe a dose of covid you've got. If it was severe yes likely several years like sars/mers. If it was a very mild case though like a standard hcov where you get not much more than a cold, maybe a year but not much more if that.

[grumbledoak]

isaldiri said:

Well, that seems to depend on how severe a dose of covid you've got. If it was severe yes likely several years like sars/mers. If it was a very mild case though like a standard hcov where you get not much more than a cold, maybe a year but not much more if that.

Sure. But if you only get a mild case every year, who cares? It's not the End of The World. Unless...

[MaxFromage]

I've always found cold viruses and infection quite interesting. I went through a phase of not having a single cold for around 3-4 years, then a period of around 2 years of very frequent colds. Present day, and I haven't had a cold for around 3 years. Nothing changed lifestyle-wise during that time.

[king arthur]

pquinn said:

Put another way, despite endless screeching from some quarters about it being possible that there's no immunity, has there been a single proven case of reinfection? We've had months and millions of test subjects to give us data.

So far every possible reinfection seems to have been down to test glitches.

The only open question would be how long immunity might last, and what forms of immunity exist.

The cases described here suggest that yes you can catch it twice and the second time is more intense -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qhyEBIpaIaM

But these are only a handful of cases.

[jshell]

grumbledoak said:

But you don't seem to understand them and they are scaring you. You are then quite obviously relishing telling others to be afraid.

The number of cases we see is largely dictated by how many tests we perform and on who we perform them. The rise and the plateau we see here is mostly the limit of how fast we can test. The true number of infections is some number way above that. That's all we know really.

If you want hard facts you should look at the numbers of hospitalizations, or deaths. These are more valid.

The virus is indeed very infectious. I believe a great many of us have already had it. If I haven't already, I hope I get it in the summer months.

Is the virus 'infectious' because the testing is throwing up many, many false positives? Seems the testing is not working: https://off-guardian.org/2020/06/27/covid19-pcr-te...

Apparently it doesn't distinguish between the cold, flu, measles, Ebola, etc...

[otolith]

konark said:

I was in Morrisons on Saturday and absolutely no-one was wearing a mask.

I visited several supermarkets yesterday looking for an item. In Morrisons, Aldi, Lidl and Asda I was pretty much the only person wearing one.

In Booths (for southerners, small Northern chain, think Waitrose) virtually everyone was wearing one.

[FiF]

otolith said:

konark said:

I was in Morrisons on Saturday and absolutely no-one was wearing a mask.

I visited several supermarkets yesterday looking for an item. In Morrisons, Aldi, Lidl and Asda I was pretty much the only person wearing one.

In Booths (for southerners, small Northern chain, think Waitrose) virtually everyone was wearing one.

Seems to be evidence that mask wearing is a social class indicator. Middle and professional class wearing, working manual class mainly not. Exceptions to that rule obviously but seems to be a trend.

As before not getting into premature adjudication as turbobloke accurately calls it. Going out and about trying to keep the wheels of life turning but not being a dick about it. Those out last night, pubs rammed, great heaving throng outside 'Spoons, mostly early twenties crowd at latest. A few older folks seemed to go to quiet places and went home early. We will see in a few weeks.

[anonymous-user]

Zoobeef said:

You do realise the in the whole world in the last 6 months there hasn't been a single case of someone being infected twice.
So I think me being the one to get it 2 or 3 times this year is pretty unrealistic.
I have 0 fear of this virus unlike you, i can see the numbers and the threat is tiny. I'm racing cars this weekend, probably has a greater danger.

I think a reasonable question is how will you behave towards others who may not share your lack of fear of the virus? Will you still respect the 2m social distance or wear a mask if 2m is not possible i.e. 1m+. Or will you just dive-in ignoring everything because YOU have no fear of it?

[anonymous-user]

FiF said:

Seems to be evidence that mask wearing is a social class indicator. Middle and professional class wearing, working manual class mainly not. Exceptions to that rule obviously but seems to be a trend.

As before not getting into premature adjudication as turbobloke accurately calls it. Going out and about trying to keep the wheels of life turning but not being a dick about it. Those out last night, pubs rammed, great heaving throng outside 'Spoons, mostly early twenties crowd at latest. A few older folks seemed to go to quiet places and went home early. We will see in a few weeks.

Isn’t that just social Darwinism in action. People that can see the sense in wearing a mask are likely to have better jobs, more money better education, people, who think it’s an assault on their freedoms, not so much. Same with things like heart disease or diet or other health related social indicators.

Obviously with the virus though It’s different as young people don’t need to worry about catching it.

We saw this at the start with panic buying of loo roll and fights etc all happening in the cheaper supermarkets same with Black Friday sales and so on.

[Zoobeef]

gottans said:

I think a reasonable question is how will you behave towards others who may not share your lack of fear of the virus? Will you still respect the 2m social distance or wear a mask if 2m is not possible i.e. 1m+. Or will you just dive-in ignoring everything because YOU have no fear of it?

I'll laugh quietly while not going near the screaming Karen through fear of them making a scene.

[Dr Z]

otolith said:

konark said:

I was in Morrisons on Saturday and absolutely no-one was wearing a mask.

I visited several supermarkets yesterday looking for an item. In Morrisons, Aldi, Lidl and Asda I was pretty much the only person wearing one.

In Booths (for southerners, small Northern chain, think Waitrose) virtually everyone was wearing one.

Tesco's in Bromley. Been doing the weekly shop there throughout. Mask wearing has steadily increased through lockdown, and last weekend was the highest numbers I saw. I would put it at about 40%. People were generally being fastidious and not spending too much time in close proximity with others.

Less of the policing by other shoppers now.

[anonymous-user]

Zoobeef said:

gottans said:

I think a reasonable question is how will you behave towards others who may not share your lack of fear of the virus? Will you still respect the 2m social distance or wear a mask if 2m is not possible i.e. 1m+. Or will you just dive-in ignoring everything because YOU have no fear of it?

I'll laugh quietly while not going near the screaming Karen through fear of them making a scene.

Seems a bit judgy. Even if you don’t agree with it, it’s just common decency like if someone is religious I wouldn’t say I don’t believe in god unless asked or if I went to another country I’d try and respect their conventions.

To me masks seem like a good idea and I’m happy to wear one if I have to. I don’t normally if I’m just out and about though. I certainly don’t judge others who do.

Sometimes I go for a short ride on my (pedal) bike without a helmet or gloves, I’m not laughing quietly at people wearing a helmet.

[vaud]

otolith said:

I visited several supermarkets yesterday looking for an item. In Morrisons, Aldi, Lidl and Asda I was pretty much the only person wearing one.

In Booths (for southerners, small Northern chain, think Waitrose) virtually everyone was wearing one.

The Ilkley one is full of non-distancing OAPs reaching over you to "just get that" and OAP couples who seem to be treating it as an outing.

[otolith]

FiF said:

otolith said:

konark said:

I was in Morrisons on Saturday and absolutely no-one was wearing a mask.

I visited several supermarkets yesterday looking for an item. In Morrisons, Aldi, Lidl and Asda I was pretty much the only person wearing one.

In Booths (for southerners, small Northern chain, think Waitrose) virtually everyone was wearing one.

Seems to be evidence that mask wearing is a social class indicator. Middle and professional class wearing, working manual class mainly not. Exceptions to that rule obviously but seems to be a trend.

That was my thought - and I have already heard claims that covid disproportionately hurts people from lower socioeconomic groups, just adds another mechanism.

[Zoobeef]

El stovey said:

Seems a bit judgy. Even if you don’t agree with it, it’s just common decency like if someone is religious I wouldn’t say I don’t believe in god unless asked or if I went to another country I’d try and respect their conventions.

To me masks seem like a good idea and I’m happy to wear one if I have to. I don’t normally if I’m just out and about though. I certainly don’t judge others who do.

Sometimes I go for a short ride on my (pedal) bike without a helmet or gloves, I’m not laughing quietly at people wearing a helmet.

I also quietly chuckle at people believing in sky faries so maybe its related. Given the only thing they both do is give you faith, rather than actually do anything.