Coronavirus - the killer flu that will wipe us out? (Vol. 7)

[2Btoo]

motco said:

rover 623gsi said:

new positive tests and deaths

Sunday 12 July - 650 / 21
Sunday 5 July - 516 / 22
Sunday 28 June - 814 / 36
Sunday 21 June - 1,103 / 43
Sunday 14 June - 1,368 / 36
Sunday 7 June - 1,198 / 77

hospital admissions continue to fall
https://coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk/healthcare...

I suspect that a large chunk of the increase in positive tests is caused by increased testing and very localised clusters. I would like the govt to get the message out there (remind people?) that the vast majority of people who get coronavirus do not suffer serious symptoms

Edited by rover 623gsi on Sunday 12th July 17:23

Thanks rover 623gsi, I look for your very helpful tables every few days.

So do I. Thanks again Rover.

[anonymous-user]

Chedders said:

Found out my uncle has tested positive for Covid this afternoon. He has been fighting cancer for the past couple of years

Sorry to hear that. It's not a good combination. I hope he will get good treatment.

[FiF]

survivalist said:

vaud said:

survivalist said:

Depends on the demographic. Everyone I know that has either had it or is suspected to have had it has had no medical interaction. Stayed at home for as long as required, time off work etc

Seems to be an assumption that if you're ill with Covid 19 you are automatically in ICU, but the reality is that most won't leave home unless there is a severe risk.

Relatives if colleagues on the other hand have been older and have needed hospital treatment, but either we have got better at shielding this demographic or they have sadly passed away in the early weeks/months of the pandemic.

I partly agree. I (think) I had it early in the UK cycle and the symptoms are mild.

My point is more about the sunshine state, the demographic and looking at a near vertical acceleration of cases, from which many deaths will sadly follow.

I have lots of US colleagues saying "ahh this is second wave" when quite clearly for their state it is the first wave and will kill the more vulnerable in that state... and some (in the case fo Florida) still not not mandating masks. A wave in NY does not correlate to a wave in FL.

I guess that their benefit is they now have a wealth of information on which to base their decisions. Those at risk should have the option to shield but they should learn from our collective mistakes. Protecting care homes and allowing the elderly and vulnerable to perform their food shopping away from the less vulnerable part of the population make sense.

To me, trying to stop Covid19 from infecting the young, non-vulnerable parts of the population is both pointless and futile. The UK put in place a huge level of support for those unable to work during lockdown. The US simply won't do that, so there is no point in trying to force people to stay at home, not work, even wear masks and social distance.

The sad element of that is that it'll increase the wealth gap, but short of a miracle that ship sailed decades ago in the USA.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/12/us/30-year-old-...

[JagLover]

NerveAgent said:

I always remember looking at the New York stats reporting 1000 deaths a day and California reporting 7 or so and thinking California has just locked down extremely early and will just delay the inevitable.

Yep

Now getting the infections they would have got then. New Zealand might be able to isolate themselves from the world. Few other places have that luxury.

[JagLover]

survivalist said:

Why would you assume Russia would be badly hit? Given that the UK stats show than men are more vulnerable than women and the Russian average life expectance for a man is 65 years (2018). I would have expected Russia to be less affected as other ailments have killed off the men before Covid 19 got to do it's work.

Yes I just posted the same thing so deleted it.

Covid-19 takes the low hanging fruit and for various reasons many countries have less of that.

You would always expect the UK to be hit hard. Ageing population, overweight population, high population density, high BAME numbers. Other countries don't have all of the same characteristics.

[FiF]

JagLover said:

NerveAgent said:

I always remember looking at the New York stats reporting 1000 deaths a day and California reporting 7 or so and thinking California has just locked down extremely early and will just delay the inevitable.

Yep

Now getting the infections they would have got then. New Zealand might be able to isolate themselves from the world. Few other places have that luxury.

One of the data whiz bods is suggesting that what's happening in Oz may be actually the first wave. What they thought was the first wave was simply locally acquired family transmissions from travellers and there was never a wider spread of community transmissions.




Then look at Israel, this is one determined fecker. Controlled it, now second wave.

[survivalist]

FiF said:

JagLover said:

NerveAgent said:

I always remember looking at the New York stats reporting 1000 deaths a day and California reporting 7 or so and thinking California has just locked down extremely early and will just delay the inevitable.

Yep

Now getting the infections they would have got then. New Zealand might be able to isolate themselves from the world. Few other places have that luxury.

One of the data whiz bods is suggesting that what's happening in Oz may be actually the first wave. What they thought was the first wave was simply locally acquired family transmissions from travellers and there was never a wider spread of community transmissions.




Then look at Israel, this is one determined fecker. Controlled it, now second wave.

Don’t know about Israel specifically, but isn’t all this reporting of cases highly dependent on testing capacity?

Back in March I know a number of people who had suspected Covid 19, among them someone who receives the flu vaccine due to a heart condition and a pharmacist (presumably an essential worker). Neither could get tests due to capacity. Last week my neighbours daughter had a temperature and because she’s back at nursery was told to go for a test. Doesn’t surprise me that ‘cases’ are up now that we are easing lockdown and have a much bigger test capacity.

It also means comparing data from March with data from July is very difficult.

[FiF]

survivalist said:

FiF said:

JagLover said:

NerveAgent said:

I always remember looking at the New York stats reporting 1000 deaths a day and California reporting 7 or so and thinking California has just locked down extremely early and will just delay the inevitable.

Yep

Now getting the infections they would have got then. New Zealand might be able to isolate themselves from the world. Few other places have that luxury.

One of the data whiz bods is suggesting that what's happening in Oz may be actually the first wave. What they thought was the first wave was simply locally acquired family transmissions from travellers and there was never a wider spread of community transmissions.




Then look at Israel, this is one determined fecker. Controlled it, now second wave.

Don’t know about Israel specifically, but isn’t all this reporting of cases highly dependent on testing capacity?

Back in March I know a number of people who had suspected Covid 19, among them someone who receives the flu vaccine due to a heart condition and a pharmacist (presumably an essential worker). Neither could get tests due to capacity. Last week my neighbours daughter had a temperature and because she’s back at nursery was told to go for a test. Doesn’t surprise me that ‘cases’ are up now that we are easing lockdown and have a much bigger test capacity.

It also means comparing data from March with data from July is very difficult.

Have said right from beginning that what also needs to be reported is % of test results that are positive.

[survivalist]

FiF said:

survivalist said:

FiF said:

JagLover said:

NerveAgent said:

I always remember looking at the New York stats reporting 1000 deaths a day and California reporting 7 or so and thinking California has just locked down extremely early and will just delay the inevitable.

Yep

Now getting the infections they would have got then. New Zealand might be able to isolate themselves from the world. Few other places have that luxury.

One of the data whiz bods is suggesting that what's happening in Oz may be actually the first wave. What they thought was the first wave was simply locally acquired family transmissions from travellers and there was never a wider spread of community transmissions.




Then look at Israel, this is one determined fecker. Controlled it, now second wave.

Don’t know about Israel specifically, but isn’t all this reporting of cases highly dependent on testing capacity?

Back in March I know a number of people who had suspected Covid 19, among them someone who receives the flu vaccine due to a heart condition and a pharmacist (presumably an essential worker). Neither could get tests due to capacity. Last week my neighbours daughter had a temperature and because she’s back at nursery was told to go for a test. Doesn’t surprise me that ‘cases’ are up now that we are easing lockdown and have a much bigger test capacity.

It also means comparing data from March with data from July is very difficult.

Have said right from beginning that what also needs to be reported is % of test results that are positive.

I agree, but even that data needs to be treated cautiously. If you only test people who are ill enough to be admitted to hospital you’re likely to get a very high percentage of positives. If you test anyone who feels a bit ropey it’ll drop massively.

All it really tells us is that Covid 19 still exists. Over a long period of time it might tell us more.

[FiF]

survivalist said:

FiF said:

survivalist said:

FiF said:

JagLover said:

NerveAgent said:

I always remember looking at the New York stats reporting 1000 deaths a day and California reporting 7 or so and thinking California has just locked down extremely early and will just delay the inevitable.

Yep

Now getting the infections they would have got then. New Zealand might be able to isolate themselves from the world. Few other places have that luxury.

One of the data whiz bods is suggesting that what's happening in Oz may be actually the first wave. What they thought was the first wave was simply locally acquired family transmissions from travellers and there was never a wider spread of community transmissions.




Then look at Israel, this is one determined fecker. Controlled it, now second wave.

Don’t know about Israel specifically, but isn’t all this reporting of cases highly dependent on testing capacity?

Back in March I know a number of people who had suspected Covid 19, among them someone who receives the flu vaccine due to a heart condition and a pharmacist (presumably an essential worker). Neither could get tests due to capacity. Last week my neighbours daughter had a temperature and because she’s back at nursery was told to go for a test. Doesn’t surprise me that ‘cases’ are up now that we are easing lockdown and have a much bigger test capacity.

It also means comparing data from March with data from July is very difficult.

Have said right from beginning that what also needs to be reported is % of test results that are positive.

I agree, but even that data needs to be treated cautiously. If you only test people who are ill enough to be admitted to hospital you’re likely to get a very high percentage of positives. If you test anyone who feels a bit ropey it’ll drop massively.

All it really tells us is that Covid 19 still exists. Over a long period of time it might tell us more.

True, again refer back to my previous criticism at the time community testing was stopped and efforts reduced to only test those reporting with severe symptoms.

[anonymous-user]

Considering all the effort going in to stop the spread of the virus and people are doing this.

https://www.foxnews.com/us/texas-hospital-died-cov...

I think young and stupid applies in this case.

[otolith]

gottans said:

Considering all the effort going in to stop the spread of the virus and people are doing this.

https://www.foxnews.com/us/texas-hospital-died-cov...

I think young and stupid applies in this case.

Darwin Award candidate.

This guy would have fitted in well on PH.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/...

[p1stonhead]

otolith said:

gottans said:

Considering all the effort going in to stop the spread of the virus and people are doing this.

https://www.foxnews.com/us/texas-hospital-died-cov...

I think young and stupid applies in this case.

Darwin Award candidate.

This guy would have fitted in well on PH.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/...

Indeed.

Maybe deny idiots like that treatment in hospitals and see how many continue to risk it. These idiots are costing someone else a bed.

[Zoobeef]

I agree, also, anyone that condones lockdown or extreme social distancing should be at the back or removed from cancer treatment/screening lists.

[p1stonhead]

Zoobeef said:

I agree, also, anyone that condones lockdown or extreme social distancing should be at the back or removed from cancer treatment/screening lists.

Eh?

Where did that random detour come from!?
I honestly don’t follow.

[irc]

Who do you believe. A BBC news report last night about Arizona being the new hotspot in the USA.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-5333748...

Arizona Govt website showing hospitalisations declining steeply for last month.

https://www.azdhs.gov/preparedness/epidemiology-di...

[markyb_lcy]

sambucket said:

Zoobeef said:

I agree, also, anyone that condones lockdown or extreme social distancing should be at the back or removed from cancer treatment/screening lists.

Which country do you think we should model our response on? And did they cancel screening too?

Why do we have to model our response on another country at all? Is it not the case that some dynamism is lost if we must wait for whichever country is being modelled to react to something before we feel able to?

We are an advanced enough nation to have funded and undertook the required levels of research to form our own strategies.

The star student never needed to copy their classmates homework.

[anonymous-user]

irc said:

Who do you believe. A BBC news report last night about Arizona being the new hotspot in the USA.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-5333748...

Arizona Govt website showing hospitalisations declining steeply for last month.

https://www.azdhs.gov/preparedness/epidemiology-di...

I followed your link and got this for ICU? Looks like it's trending up to me.

[grumbledoak]

irc said:

Who do you believe. A BBC news report last night...

You could have stopped there, frankly.

[smashing]

sambucket said:

irc said:

Who do you believe. A BBC news report last night about Arizona being the new hotspot in the USA.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-5333748...

Arizona Govt website showing hospitalisations declining steeply for last month.

https://www.azdhs.gov/preparedness/epidemiology-di...

I followed your link and got this for ICU? Looks like it's trending up to me.

Because you looked at the ICU and not hospitalisations