Coronavirus - the killer flu that will wipe us out? (Vol. 7)

[anonymous-user]

Zoobeef said:

Maybe one day you'll be right about something. Today, alas, is not that day. I didnt originally quote you.
I dont need to wait for your every word. Its guaranteed that you've written some new ones every time I log in.

21 minutes, you are losing your touch

[markyb_lcy]

sambucket said:

markyb_lcy said:

Fair enough.

Even the under resourced NHS didn’t burst past 60% ICU bed use at the peak. We know from reports on these here forums also, direct from health workers that many who were not dealing with Covid patients were twiddling their thumbs and “enjoying” their quietest period in their working life. On the face of it, it feels to me like we could have been doing more to avoid non-Covid excess deaths (and suffering).

Can you point me to the 60% figure? The only data I've found is this from the imperial june 15th report, which suggests normal NHS would have struggled with 20% of the 2700 odd covid ICU patients at peak? mostly due to nurses. They had to cancel electives, draft in students, use private resources, and still came in 200 short?

I’ll try and dig it out. I was of the understanding the 60% utilisation was a widely known and accepted number.

Forget about imperial and their models. Dr Doom ruined their rep with me long back.

Edit: here is a graph (halfway down the page) of usage (raw numbers so we would need the total number of icu beds available to calculate it to 60%)...

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-19-uk-hospital...

Edited by markyb_lcy on Monday 13th July 21:43

[anonymous-user]

markyb_lcy said:

I’ll try and dig it out. I was of the understanding the 60% utilisation was a widely known and accepted number.

Forget about imperial and their models. Dr Doom ruined their rep with me long back.

This report is dated june 15th so I don't think it was a model? Not 100% sure though.

Maybe it's a staff sickness issue too?

[anonymous-user]

The issue with ICU beds is having enough trained staff to look after the patients and this is the limiting factor rather just having enough beds in the ward.

[John Locke]

p1stonhead said:

Zoobeef said:

I agree, also, anyone that condones lockdown or extreme social distancing should be at the back or removed from cancer treatment/screening lists.

Eh?

Where did that random detour come from!?
I honestly don’t follow.

Covid-19 has, according even to the rabid fear mongering "Independent", so far killed 1 person in 15,400 worldwide. How many non CV deaths during the period since it emerged?

[FiF]

Whichever side you're on then one thing is for sure, this thread and volume is going to be worth revisiting in February 2021 just to see some of the opinions which are being currently stated as fact.

Clearly one hopes the situation isn't as per Sir Patrick Vallance's latest reasonable worst case scenario. Yeah yeah modelling schmodelling.

[turbobloke]

FiF said:

Whichever side you're on then one thing is for sure, this thread and volume is going to be worth revisiting in February 2021 just to see some of the opinions which are being currently stated as fact.

Clearly one hopes the situation isn't as per Sir Patrick Vallance's latest reasonable worst case scenario. Yeah yeah modelling schmodelling.

Agreed.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/14/acti...

Wave 1 hasn't been near the reasonable worst case scenario.

[anonymous-user]

My local Tesco removed all the direction arrows on the floor of the store last week which was a lovely step forward. Guess it's now another step back!

[Robertj21a]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

There's been some suggestion that Keith Vaz only kept getting re-elected because the local businessmen told their wives and extended families that they must vote for him. Many didn't understand enough English (or the election processes) to do anything other than as directed by the head of their household........it is alleged.

[anonymous-user]

FiF said:

Whichever side you're on then one thing is for sure, this thread and volume is going to be worth revisiting in February 2021 just to see some of the opinions which are being currently stated as fact.

Clearly one hopes the situation isn't as per Sir Patrick Vallance's latest reasonable worst case scenario. Yeah yeah modelling schmodelling.

Is there a link to the new report please?

[motco]

turbobloke said:

FiF said:

Whichever side you're on then one thing is for sure, this thread and volume is going to be worth revisiting in February 2021 just to see some of the opinions which are being currently stated as fact.

Clearly one hopes the situation isn't as per Sir Patrick Vallance's latest reasonable worst case scenario. Yeah yeah modelling schmodelling.

Agreed.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/14/acti...

Wave 1 hasn't been near the reasonable worst case scenario.

What do you expect? They used second hand climate models from UAE!

[ChocolateFrog]

"The return to economic growth in May was described as "disappointing" by economists, who had expected an expansion of 5% or more."

The older you get the more you realise 'expert' is a criminally overused word.

Anyone with a half a brain could tell the economy wasn't going to just bounce back like nothing had happened.

Currently 25% down on Feb's figures, staggering really

[ChocolateFrog]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

Understandable when you're on £3 an hour with gangs to pay.

[grumbledoak]

ChocolateFrog said:

"The return to economic growth in May was described as "disappointing" by economists, who had expected an expansion of 5% or more."

The older you get the more you realise 'expert' is a criminally overused word.

The term is misused, especially by the media. What the media have is "talking heads", normally white men in dark suits for news readers and economists because "optics" and "focus groups". Academics wouldn't be seen dead in that attire, maybe a polo neck and jacket, but the exact same thing is going on. None of them can predict the future with any accuracy.

[motco]

grumbledoak said:

ChocolateFrog said:

"The return to economic growth in May was described as "disappointing" by economists, who had expected an expansion of 5% or more."

The older you get the more you realise 'expert' is a criminally overused word.

The term is misused, especially by the media. What the media have is "talking heads", normally white men in dark suits for news readers and economists because "optics" and "focus groups". Academics wouldn't be seen dead in that attire, maybe a polo neck and jacket, but the exact same thing is going on. None of them can predict the future with any accuracy.

The only futurologist I knew topped himself when his predictions were wrong. If every futurologist did that they would be an endangered species.

[MikeyC]

garyhun said:

My local Tesco removed all the direction arrows on the floor of the store last week which was a lovely step forward. Guess it's now another step back!

Yeah, I noticed this aswell

It seemed quite pointless when someone in an aisle typically wandered up & down in both directions!

[jimothyc]

Despite the best efforts of bats and pangolins to kill us off, it looks like we have an unlikely champion from the animal kingdom coming to our rescue, llamas!

https://epsrc.ukri.org/newsevents/news/engineered-...

[turbobloke]

MikeyC said:

garyhun said:

My local Tesco removed all the direction arrows on the floor of the store last week which was a lovely step forward. Guess it's now another step back!

Yeah, I noticed this aswell

It seemed quite pointless when someone in an aisle typically wandered up & down in both directions!

Indeed, it assumed that shoppers knew where things were and could collect stuff on their list with just one circuit. That was a false assumption even without the supermarket habit of moving things around. Still, something must be done, and arrows were/are something.

[turbobloke]

jimothyc said:

Despite the best efforts of bats and pangolins to kill us off, it looks like we have an unlikely champion from the animal kingdom coming to our rescue, llamas!

https://epsrc.ukri.org/newsevents/news/engineered-...

Fifi's nanobody cocktail could soon be legendary.

[FiF]

turbobloke said:

jimothyc said:

Despite the best efforts of bats and pangolins to kill us off, it looks like we have an unlikely champion from the animal kingdom coming to our rescue, llamas!

https://epsrc.ukri.org/newsevents/news/engineered-...

Fifi's nanobody cocktail could soon be legendary.

Not to mention alpacas, just so cute, friendly yet nosey with it.