Coronavirus - the killer flu that will wipe us out? (Vol. 7)

[Stu T]

loafer123 said:

vaud said:

Bloomberg article worth reading:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2020-07-15...

Thanks - fascinating stuff, and hopeful too.

That's the best state of play on the Oxford vaccine I've seen

[bnseven]

and the Hong Kong Flu of '69 was only 10 years after the '59 Asian Flu and nearly as bad....

[p1stonhead]

Stu T said:

loafer123 said:

vaud said:

Bloomberg article worth reading:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2020-07-15...

Thanks - fascinating stuff, and hopeful too.

That's the best state of play on the Oxford vaccine I've seen

Must be amazing to be working on a ‘money no object’ project after struggling like everyone does to get funding for whatever they are proposing.

[JagLover]

bnseven said:

and the Hong Kong Flu of '69 was only 10 years after the '59 Asian Flu and nearly as bad....

Asian Flu wasn't particularly deadly in the UK though

Estimate death toll here of 33K and an IFR of 0.3% which made it barely more dangerous than a bad seasonal Flu outbreak.

HK Flu killed 80K here.

[markyb_lcy]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

The Peston comment I found particularly funny. Good work.

[bnseven]

JagLover said:

Asian Flu wasn't particularly deadly in the UK though

Estimate death toll here of 33K and an IFR of 0.3% which made it barely more dangerous than a bad seasonal Flu outbreak.

HK Flu killed 80K here.

Stand corrected, had my pandemics the wrong way round !! Asian Flu was 57 as well..doh! Mind 33k out of a population of 51million is a fairly rough seasonal flu, admittedly not as bad as 69, which I should have remembered as my Dad volunteered to do 7 nightshifts in a hospital due to their being no nursing staff and it being Christmas.....

he had run the RAF hospital on Christmas Island so wasnt a total amateur

[markyb_lcy]

JagLover said:

Asian Flu wasn't particularly deadly in the UK though

Estimate death toll here of 33K and an IFR of 0.3% which made it barely more dangerous than a bad seasonal Flu outbreak.

HK Flu killed 80K here.

Hong Kong was a dependant territory of the UK at the time though, which is what I think was being got at.

[rover 623gsi]

Monday 1 June - 1,418 / 111
Monday 8 June - 1,089 / 55
Monday 15 June - 874 / 38
Monday 22 June - 865 / 15
Monday 29 June - 735 / 25
Monday 6 July - 352 / 16
Monday 13 July - 530 / 11

Tuesday 2 June - 1,345 / 326
Tuesday 9 June - 1,059 / 289
Tuesday 16 June - 994 / 236
Tuesday 23 June - 730 / 171
Tuesday 30 June - 569 / 155
Tuesday 7 July - 534 / 155
Tuesday 14 July - 398 / 138

Wednesday 3 June - 1,232/ 365
Wednesday 10 June - 1,087 / 250
Wednesday 17 June - 912 / 184
Wednesday 24 June - 726 / 154
Wednesday 1 July - 605 / 176
Wednesday 8 July - 634 / 126
Wednesday 15 July - 538 / 85

Edited by rover 623gsi on Wednesday 15th July 19:37

[Zoobeef]

rover 623gsi said:

Monday 13 July - 530 / 11
Monday 6 July - 352 / 16
Monday 29 June - 735 / 25
Monday 22 June - 865 / 15
Monday 15 June - 874 / 38
Monday 8 June - 1,089 / 55
Monday 1 June - 1,418 / 111

Tuesday 14 July - 398 / 138
Tuesday 7 July - 534 / 155
Tuesday 30 June - 569 / 155
Tuesday 23 June - 730 / 171
Tuesday 16 June - 994 / 236
Tuesday 9 June - 1,059 / 289
Tuesday 2 June - 1,345 / 326

Wednesday 15 July - 538 / 85
Wednesday 8 July - 634 / 126
Wednesday 1 July - 605 / 176
Wednesday 24 June - 726 / 154
Wednesday 17 June - 912 / 184
Wednesday 10 June - 1,087 / 250
Wednesday 3 June - 1,232/ 365

Second wave is here, hold onto your hats...

[anonymous-user]

Feels a bit liked we have gone through the 5 stages and ended up back at square 1 again.

[Zoobeef]

sambucket said:

Feels a bit liked we have gone through the 5 stages and ended up back at square 1 again.

You arent supposed to flip flop around the stages daily though Karen.

[rover 623gsi]

in terms of cases, and taking the just over 500 reported in England (as that is where almost all of them are)

Cases are assigned to 149 upper tier LAs - based on today's reported number:

79 are accounted for by just two local authorities ; Leicester and Bradford, so around 15% of the total cases in England

257 cases are accounted for by 15 LAs (incl Leicester and Bradford)

37 LAs (so 25 % of the total) account for 381 (approx 75%) of cases

47 LAs had [b]0]/b] cases in today's figure; and the bottom 75 had just 27 cases in total between them.

It is worth also remembering that today's figure does not relate to cases with a specimen date of yesterday. For England it comprises:

14th July - 18 cases
13th July - 335 cases
12th July - 45 cases
11th July - 46 cases
10th July - 36 cases
9th July - 10 cases
8th July - 15 cases

then various corrections going back as far as 16th March specimen date.

The rate of decline has slowed in the last week or but case numbers have still more than halved again as compared to the position at the start of June.

The next step change, will be more challenging because in a lot of areas cases really are now at really quite low levels. The virus has not gone away so we are likely to see blips like Leicester, Bradford, Blackburn, the farm in Herefordshire that will disproportionately impact the overall number of cases.

[Welshbeef]

Zoobeef said:

rover 623gsi said:

Monday 13 July - 530 / 11
Monday 6 July - 352 / 16
Monday 29 June - 735 / 25
Monday 22 June - 865 / 15
Monday 15 June - 874 / 38
Monday 8 June - 1,089 / 55
Monday 1 June - 1,418 / 111

Tuesday 14 July - 398 / 138
Tuesday 7 July - 534 / 155
Tuesday 30 June - 569 / 155
Tuesday 23 June - 730 / 171
Tuesday 16 June - 994 / 236
Tuesday 9 June - 1,059 / 289
Tuesday 2 June - 1,345 / 326

Wednesday 15 July - 538 / 85
Wednesday 8 July - 634 / 126
Wednesday 1 July - 605 / 176
Wednesday 24 June - 726 / 154
Wednesday 17 June - 912 / 184
Wednesday 10 June - 1,087 / 250
Wednesday 3 June - 1,232/ 365

Second wave is here, hold onto your hats...

Can you explain your comment as the data above in my eyes appears to indicate nothing but a decreasing situation - slowly decreasing but decreasing none the less.

Which dates and numbers are you picking out to qualify the statement you made?

[Ultra Sound Guy]

Zoobeef said:

Second wave is here, hold onto your hats...

New cases per day for UK.

[sim72]

red_slr said:

PM talking about an inquiry.... WHY!?
I mean, what good is going to come from that.

Will take years and cost tens of millions for no doubt the "lessons to be learnt" etc etc...

If it's anything like the Russia/Brexit "inquiry" we'll never see the (useful) results anyway.

[hidetheelephants]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

Who is going to be afraid of saying having modern slaves living in overcrowded pestilent dormitories is a gigantic infection risk? It's disgusting and should be stopped.

[cymatty]

Ultra Sound Guy said:

New cases per day for UK.

Ah the spike caused by Wales delayed reporting of pillar 2 tests. Never mind sorry to disappoint you

Also t-cells again, looks promising so do t expect to see it on the BBC

twitter

[red_slr]

Ireland and Spain both look to be having a slight ramp up in numbers.

[vaud]

red_slr said:

Ireland and Spain both look to be having a slight ramp up in numbers.

I guess it was to be expected. None of this was about eliminating CV-19, it was getting it under control and then monitoring regional spikes? Also increased focus and testing will skew the numbers slightly.

[turbobloke]

sim72 said:

red_slr said:

PM talking about an inquiry.... WHY!?
I mean, what good is going to come from that.

Will take years and cost tens of millions for no doubt the "lessons to be learnt" etc etc...

If it's anything like the Russia/Brexit "inquiry" we'll never see the (useful) results anyway.

This pandemic has been different from previous instances e.g. young people not so affected, and the rest. What lessons can be learned? Stockpiling PPE will need a change in PPE to avoid use-by date issues.

The aim of desperados calling for an inquiry now, at barely half-time, is a transparent attempt to grab any half-baked premature conclusion (already set up by virulent journos) to use against Brexit Boris and the Landsliders.