Coronavirus - the killer flu that will wipe us out? (Vol. 7)
Discussion
turbobloke said:
This pandemic has been different from previous instances e.g. young people not so affected, and the rest. What lessons can be learned? Stockpiling PPE will need a change in PPE to avoid use-by date issues.
The aim of desperados calling for an inquiry now, at barely half-time, is a transparent attempt to grab any half-baked premature conclusion (already set up by virulent journos) to use against Brexit Boris and the Landsliders.
The appalling realization for European leaders is that Europe did not initially help them... Italy was initially abandoned.The aim of desperados calling for an inquiry now, at barely half-time, is a transparent attempt to grab any half-baked premature conclusion (already set up by virulent journos) to use against Brexit Boris and the Landsliders.
vaud said:
turbobloke said:
This pandemic has been different from previous instances e.g. young people not so affected, and the rest. What lessons can be learned? Stockpiling PPE will need a change in PPE to avoid use-by date issues.
The aim of desperados calling for an inquiry now, at barely half-time, is a transparent attempt to grab any half-baked premature conclusion (already set up by virulent journos) to use against Brexit Boris and the Landsliders.
The appalling realization for European leaders is that Europe did not initially help them... Italy was initially abandoned.The aim of desperados calling for an inquiry now, at barely half-time, is a transparent attempt to grab any half-baked premature conclusion (already set up by virulent journos) to use against Brexit Boris and the Landsliders.
Then people wonder why we voted for Brexit.
sambucket said:
FiF said:
Good news about the Oxford vaccine though. Phase 1 shown that it triggers both antibody and T-cell response. Phase 2 underway with 5,000 in Brazil. Waiting to see if picked for next phase.
There are noises about it being read by end of year, anyone know if this realistic?FiF said:
Good news about the Oxford vaccine though. Phase 1 shown that it triggers both antibody and T-cell response. Phase 2 underway with 5,000 in Brazil. Waiting to see if picked for next phase.
The Beeb covered that this morning, it's looking promising with another three vaccines from other organisations in similar positions, Imperial being one (I can't remember the other two, will the vaccines do anything for one's memory?).Fair play to you for partaking
FiF said:
Good news about the Oxford vaccine though. Phase 1 shown that it triggers both antibody and T-cell response. Phase 2 underway with 5,000 in Brazil. Waiting to see if picked for next phase.
I thought all the monkeys went on to develop the disease anyway?https://www.forbes.com/sites/williamhaseltine/2020...
grumbledoak said:
I thought all the monkeys went on to develop the disease anyway?
https://www.forbes.com/sites/williamhaseltine/2020...
Given that Covid-19 isn't particularly dangerous partial protection is probably all that is needed.https://www.forbes.com/sites/williamhaseltine/2020...
They can announce "here is a vaccine now go back to normal" and it should help should you become infected. All it would have to do is halve death rates to make Covid-19 about as dangerous as seasonal flu.
JagLover said:
Given that Covid-19 isn't particularly dangerous partial protection is probably all that is needed.
They can announce "here is a vaccine now go back to normal" and it should help should you become infected. All it would have to do is halve death rates to make Covid-19 about as dangerous as seasonal flu.
Halving a death rate comparable with that of lightning strikes in return for risking a vaccine injury? You would have to be mad.They can announce "here is a vaccine now go back to normal" and it should help should you become infected. All it would have to do is halve death rates to make Covid-19 about as dangerous as seasonal flu.
Or forced, of course.
grumbledoak said:
JagLover said:
Given that Covid-19 isn't particularly dangerous partial protection is probably all that is needed.
They can announce "here is a vaccine now go back to normal" and it should help should you become infected. All it would have to do is halve death rates to make Covid-19 about as dangerous as seasonal flu.
Halving a death rate comparable with that of lightning strikes in return for risking a vaccine injury? You would have to be mad.They can announce "here is a vaccine now go back to normal" and it should help should you become infected. All it would have to do is halve death rates to make Covid-19 about as dangerous as seasonal flu.
Or forced, of course.
Edit - wait, you serious?
Edited by p1stonhead on Thursday 16th July 10:51
grumbledoak said:
Halving a death rate comparable with that of lightning strikes in return for risking a vaccine injury? You would have to be mad.
Of forced, of course.
UK Deaths from Covid in 2020 45000 UK deaths from lightning strikes since 1900 about 250 .. Not to mention the people who caught Covid and didn't die but were very ill. We vaccinate against many far less lethal illnesses. Of forced, of course.
Edited by Graveworm on Thursday 16th July 10:58
p1stonhead said:
Edit - wait, you serious?
wait, you ignorant?
https://www.cdc.gov/vaccinesafety/concerns/history...
This s
t happens when they rush out a vaccine.grumbledoak said:
FiF said:
Good news about the Oxford vaccine though. Phase 1 shown that it triggers both antibody and T-cell response. Phase 2 underway with 5,000 in Brazil. Waiting to see if picked for next phase.
I thought all the monkeys went on to develop the disease anyway?https://www.forbes.com/sites/williamhaseltine/2020...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2020-07-15...
for a more balanced view
sambucket said:
There are noises about it being read by end of year, anyone know if this realistic?
The official end of trial date (last subject last visit) is down for May 2021, but you don't need to wait until all the follow-ups are completed before you can use the data generated (unless it's a double-blind study). The Oxford/AZ study is a single blind study so the investigators will be getting data throughout Phase1 and Phase 2b studies that are ongoing. It looks as though they have good safety data from the phase 1 (plus I expect they'll use the previous pre-clinical and clinical safety data from their MERS vaccine development) to support the approval. Efficacy data in terms of immune response will also be coming in from the Phase 1 trial.
The Phase 2b trial is more focussed on getting efficacy data in terms of protection from disease and infection and the big rate-limiting step there is trying to get those data while infections are falling.
I work in oncology clinical trials and the size of the phase2b trials that have recruited for the vaccine are far in access of anything we would do within our disease area. The efficacy results coming out of this are going to be pretty powerful (statistically speaking), as is the safety data. For a phase 3 oncology clinical trial a 1000 patients is a big study and would take at least 3 years to recruit and complete, to give you some idea (then again finding relevant oncology patients is a lot more challenging and the readouts are many times more complicated than a vaccine trial).
To answer your question, yes it is possible to read out and collect sufficient data by the end of the year. In fact providing they have hit upon some infection hotspots I suspect that they may have data earlier than that (they will already have some data). The question is how much data will the regulators require for approval, and how long with the approval take.
I don't know what discussions AZ are having with the regulators or what data is being shared on a rolling basis, but the approval timelines are going to have to be very short. Usual approval timelines in the EU is 210 days for a regular approval and 150 days for accelerated approval. We're in uncharted waters here so I've no idea what the approval timeline will look like.
TTmonkey said:
72k new positive tests in the USA yesterday, and the death rate is starting to accelerate. Just back up above 1k deaths a day.
This time next week I think 2k, then doubling week in week until they get a handle on it.
Seconds wave over there....? Could be a tsunami.
Looks it based on hospitalisations. This time next week I think 2k, then doubling week in week until they get a handle on it.
Seconds wave over there....? Could be a tsunami.
grumbledoak said:
wait, you ignorant?
https://www.cdc.gov/vaccinesafety/concerns/history...
This s
t happens when they rush out a vaccine.But it's a deflection from your nonsense about lightning. If that level of side effects were present with an effective Covid vaccine it would be hugely beneficial.
TTmonkey said:
72k new positive tests in the USA yesterday, and the death rate is starting to accelerate. Just back up above 1k deaths a day.
This time next week I think 2k, then doubling week in week until they get a handle on it.
Seconds wave over there....? Could be a tsunami.
No This time next week I think 2k, then doubling week in week until they get a handle on it.
Seconds wave over there....? Could be a tsunami.
The first wave most states didn't get. Very few of those cases are in New York.
JagLover said:
TTmonkey said:
72k new positive tests in the USA yesterday, and the death rate is starting to accelerate. Just back up above 1k deaths a day.
This time next week I think 2k, then doubling week in week until they get a handle on it.
Seconds wave over there....? Could be a tsunami.
No This time next week I think 2k, then doubling week in week until they get a handle on it.
Seconds wave over there....? Could be a tsunami.
The first wave most states didn't get. Very few of those cases are in New York.
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