Coronavirus - the killer flu that will wipe us out? (Vol. 7)

[grumbledoak]

Graveworm said:

Whilst tragic most vaccines and treatments have possible side effects. A small increase in non fatal cases in 2 countries following nearly 35 million doses of a vaccine which was used to prevent a pandemic that killed thousands. They are still using the vaccine despite what they know.
But it's a deflection from your nonsense about lightning. If that level of side effects were present with an effective Covid vaccine it would be hugely beneficial.

linked article said:

Pandemrix is manufactured by GlaxoSmithKline in Europe and was specifically produced for pandemic 2009 H1N1 influenza. It was not used before 2009, and has not been used since the influenza pandemic season (2009-2010). It contains an oil-in-water emulsion adjuvant called ASO3. Adjuvants are substances added to a vaccine to increase the body’s immune response to that vaccine.

Pandemrix was not licensed for use in the United States.

[sim72]

JagLover said:

TTmonkey said:

72k new positive tests in the USA yesterday, and the death rate is starting to accelerate. Just back up above 1k deaths a day.

This time next week I think 2k, then doubling week in week until they get a handle on it.

Seconds wave over there....? Could be a tsunami.

No

The first wave most states didn't get. Very few of those cases are in New York.

The exception being Louisiana, which is definitely in 2nd wave territory.

[grumbledoak]

sim72 said:

The exception being Louisiana, which is definitely in 2nd wave territory.

Can you also show the total test numbers please? Lots more tests = lots more positives.

[JagLover]

grumbledoak said:

sim72 said:

The exception being Louisiana, which is definitely in 2nd wave territory.

Can you also show the total test numbers please? Lots more tests = lots more positives.

Yes, daily deaths aren't showing much evidence of a "second wave"

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/loui...

[sim72]

grumbledoak said:

sim72 said:

The exception being Louisiana, which is definitely in 2nd wave territory.

Can you also show the total test numbers please? Lots more tests = lots more positives.

Their testing has increased somewhat (134,000 last week compared to 88,000 a month ago) but is very variable.

The important metric, positive percentage has been floating around 5% since April, but in the last three weeks has gone up to just over 10%. So they're showing double the infection rate since mid-June.

[sim72]

JagLover said:

Yes, daily deaths aren't showing much evidence of a "second wave"

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/loui...

Too early to say. The case figures only started to go up around 20 days ago.

[Borghetto]

sim72 said:

Their testing has increased somewhat (134,000 last week compared to 88,000 a month ago) but is very variable.

The important metric, positive percentage has been floating around 5% since April, but in the last three weeks has gone up to just over 10%. So they're showing double the infection rate since mid-June.

There has been news reports of double or more counting of positive results and might explain the increase.

[Graveworm]

grumbledoak said:

Graveworm said:

Whilst tragic most vaccines and treatments have possible side effects. A small increase in non fatal cases in 2 countries following nearly 35 million doses of a vaccine which was used to prevent a pandemic that killed thousands. They are still using the vaccine despite what they know.
But it's a deflection from your nonsense about lightning. If that level of side effects were present with an effective Covid vaccine it would be hugely beneficial.

linked article said:

Pandemrix is manufactured by GlaxoSmithKline in Europe and was specifically produced for pandemic 2009 H1N1 influenza. It was not used before 2009, and has not been used since the influenza pandemic season (2009-2010). It contains an oil-in-water emulsion adjuvant called ASO3. Adjuvants are substances added to a vaccine to increase the body’s immune response to that vaccine.

Pandemrix was not licensed for use in the United States.

It is still licensed for use in the EU it may not have been used when that US report was written about it.

Edited by Graveworm on Thursday 16th July 15:01

[poo at Paul's]

p1stonhead said:

TTmonkey said:

72k new positive tests in the USA yesterday, and the death rate is starting to accelerate. Just back up above 1k deaths a day.

This time next week I think 2k, then doubling week in week until they get a handle on it.

Seconds wave over there....? Could be a tsunami.

Looks it based on hospitalisations.

Much of the US came out of lockdown first 2 weeks of May. It is concerning how it is going there, we will know in a month if we’re going the same way.

[rover 623gsi]

New positive tests and deaths

Monday 1 June - 1,418 / 111
Monday 8 June - 1,089 / 55
Monday 15 June - 874 / 38
Monday 22 June - 865 / 15
Monday 29 June - 735 / 25
Monday 6 July - 352 / 16
Monday 13 July - 530 / 11

Tuesday 2 June - 1,345 / 326
Tuesday 9 June - 1,059 / 289
Tuesday 16 June - 994 / 236
Tuesday 23 June - 730 / 171
Tuesday 30 June - 569 / 155
Tuesday 7 July - 534 / 155
Tuesday 14 July - 398 / 138

Wednesday 3 June - 1,232/ 365
Wednesday 10 June - 1,087 / 250
Wednesday 17 June - 912 / 184
Wednesday 24 June - 726 / 154
Wednesday 1 July - 605 / 176
Wednesday 8 July - 634 / 126
Wednesday 15 July - 538 / 85

Thursday 4 June - 1,140 / 177
Thursday 11 June - 918 / 152
Thursday 18 June - 945 / 137
Thursday 25 June - 636 / 149
Thursday 2 July - 556 / 89
Thursday 9 July - 649 / 85
Thursday 16 July - 642 / 66

[Electro1980]

RTB said:

sambucket said:

There are noises about it being read by end of year, anyone know if this realistic?

The official end of trial date (last subject last visit) is down for May 2021, but you don't need to wait until all the follow-ups are completed before you can use the data generated (unless it's a double-blind study). The Oxford/AZ study is a single blind study so the investigators will be getting data throughout Phase1 and Phase 2b studies that are ongoing.

It looks as though they have good safety data from the phase 1 (plus I expect they'll use the previous pre-clinical and clinical safety data from their MERS vaccine development) to support the approval. Efficacy data in terms of immune response will also be coming in from the Phase 1 trial.
The Phase 2b trial is more focussed on getting efficacy data in terms of protection from disease and infection and the big rate-limiting step there is trying to get those data while infections are falling.

I work in oncology clinical trials and the size of the phase2b trials that have recruited for the vaccine are far in access of anything we would do within our disease area. The efficacy results coming out of this are going to be pretty powerful (statistically speaking), as is the safety data. For a phase 3 oncology clinical trial a 1000 patients is a big study and would take at least 3 years to recruit and complete, to give you some idea (then again finding relevant oncology patients is a lot more challenging and the readouts are many times more complicated than a vaccine trial).

To answer your question, yes it is possible to read out and collect sufficient data by the end of the year. In fact providing they have hit upon some infection hotspots I suspect that they may have data earlier than that (they will already have some data). The question is how much data will the regulators require for approval, and how long with the approval take.

I don't know what discussions AZ are having with the regulators or what data is being shared on a rolling basis, but the approval timelines are going to have to be very short. Usual approval timelines in the EU is 210 days for a regular approval and 150 days for accelerated approval. We're in uncharted waters here so I've no idea what the approval timeline will look like.

I believe the current hope is for 1 million doses by the end of September and 30 million for the U.K., plus many more for equitable world wide distribution by the end of the year.

[saaby93]

It doesnt seem to be heading downwards - but maybe that's due to less restrictions

[sherbertdip]

saaby93 said:

It doesnt seem to be heading downwards - but maybe that's due to less restrictions

What isn't?

The top never will head down as it's a total, the lower one is heading down, but the decrease can't really be picked up on the scale used.

[vaud]

saaby93 said:

It doesnt seem to be heading downwards - but maybe that's due to less restrictions

Given we are down to <100/day you would need to look at the last few weeks on a different scale.

It's unlikely to hit 0 given the goal is not eradication.

[bodhi]

saaby93 said:

It doesnt seem to be heading downwards - but maybe that's due to less restrictions

Or maybe it's due to PHE's inability to count properly:

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/why-no-one-can-ever-...

[MOTORVATOR]

vaud said:

saaby93 said:

It doesnt seem to be heading downwards - but maybe that's due to less restrictions

Given we are down to <100/day you would need to look at the last few weeks on a different scale.

It's unlikely to hit 0 given the goal is not eradication.

Don't bother looking at deaths now as it will never be zero in England.

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/why-no-one-can-ever-...

[So]

bodhi said:

saaby93 said:

It doesnt seem to be heading downwards - but maybe that's due to less restrictions

Or maybe it's due to PHE's inability to count properly:

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/why-no-one-can-ever-...

Astonishing.

[MOTORVATOR]

So said:

Astonishing.

Whereas Sturgeon on the other hand claims no deaths and NRS says it is 13 but they don't count as the families can't register the deaths in time for her daily claims.

[turbobloke]

So said:

bodhi said:

saaby93 said:

It doesnt seem to be heading downwards - but maybe that's due to less restrictions

Or maybe it's due to PHE's inability to count properly:

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/why-no-one-can-ever-...

Astonishing.

"Anyone who has tested COVID positive but subsequently died at a later date of any cause will be included on the PHE COVID death figures."

It's OK. Partial, inhomogeneous and basically inadequate data from various sources is fine if it facilitates a pop or two at the government from those who didn't vote for it and/or don't want it.

[Vanden Saab]

So said:

bodhi said:

saaby93 said:

It doesnt seem to be heading downwards - but maybe that's due to less restrictions

Or maybe it's due to PHE's inability to count properly:

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/why-no-one-can-ever-...

Astonishing.

Oh no it is far worse than astonishing, AIUI everybody who has been admitted to hospital since testing started really has been tested. If they died before the test result was known the cause of death would be whatever killed them but PHE then go back and check weeks later for the result of the test and amend the figures. I wonder what the figures are on the likelihood of people who are admitted to hospital dying compared to the general population...also AIUI everybody in a care home has been tested in the last few weeks and since the beginning of July are being tested on a weekly basis. Estimates are that around 40% of all Covid deaths were in care homes.
Add into that the fact that historically figures for deaths were spread out for months after a flu outbreak due to the figures being collected slowly and yet now the figures are being collected with in days and the huge increase between excess deaths in the last few months vs the 5 year average makes more sense. To understand it imagine how low the death rate would go if the PHE delayed the number of deaths by three of four weeks for the next three months...