Coronavirus - the killer flu that will wipe us out? (Vol. 7)
Discussion
smashing said:
grumbledoak said:
no no no no just look at the graphs and prepare for that second wave!!!
Meaningless without the test numbers and the age distribution of the infected.Imo we are a *minimum* of two years away from really understanding what went on, when, why and how. Actually that sentence should really be reworded to "to what IS going on, etc" Not finished yet by a long chalk. That's not being doom and gloom and hiding behind the sofa as some claim.
Two things from military thoughts. "Hope for the best, plan for the worst." and "No plan survives first contact completely intact."
Still those who want to take selective premature information will continue in order to justify doing what they had pre-ordained from outset, bash Boris etc. Carry on, it just means you'll be ignored even more in future. There are genuine criticisms due and truly well deserved in various quarters, including Bozzer, but let's issue them backed up with proper complete and objectively researched facts. Seems we don't even have proper and accurate death figures, which is a bit of a really basic shortcoming. Staggering.
El stovey said:
Stu T said:
More testing going on? Second wave?
Delayed first wave after changes in lockdowns?
Difficult to tell.
Surely deaths or even excess deaths in each country are the only real indication, assuming how they’re recorded isn’t changing.
FiF said:
smashing said:
grumbledoak said:
no no no no just look at the graphs and prepare for that second wave!!!Imo we are a *minimum* of two years away from really understanding what went on, when, why and how. Actually that sentence should really be reworded to "to what IS going on, etc" Not finished yet by a long chalk. That's not being doom and gloom and hiding behind the sofa as some claim.
Two things from military thoughts. "Hope for the best, plan for the worst." and "No plan survives first contact completely intact."
Still those who want to take selective premature information will continue in order to justify doing what they had pre-ordained from outset, bash Boris etc. Carry on, it just means you'll be ignored even more in future. There are genuine criticisms due and truly well deserved in various quarters, including Bozzer, but let's issue them backed up with proper complete and objectively researched facts. Seems we don't even have proper and accurate death figures, which is a bit of a really basic shortcoming. Staggering.
There are things where it’s too early to fully judge. But this isn’t science, it’s politics, and no amount of “reasoning” will calm the pressure mounting.
markyb_lcy said:
FiF said:
smashing said:
grumbledoak said:
no no no no just look at the graphs and prepare for that second wave!!!Imo we are a *minimum* of two years away from really understanding what went on, when, why and how. Actually that sentence should really be reworded to "to what IS going on, etc" Not finished yet by a long chalk. That's not being doom and gloom and hiding behind the sofa as some claim.
Two things from military thoughts. "Hope for the best, plan for the worst." and "No plan survives first contact completely intact."
Still those who want to take selective premature information will continue in order to justify doing what they had pre-ordained from outset, bash Boris etc. Carry on, it just means you'll be ignored even more in future. There are genuine criticisms due and truly well deserved in various quarters, including Bozzer, but let's issue them backed up with proper complete and objectively researched facts. Seems we don't even have proper and accurate death figures, which is a bit of a really basic shortcoming. Staggering.
turbobloke said:
Leithen said:
Log Scale doesn’t help.
Surely if people understand why a logarithmic scale is used and what it shows, it helps.It's used for a reason.
turbobloke said:
There sure are plenty of people around with their own political motivation for not waiting until there's sufficient data to form a reasoned view using analytical methods rather than bias. Much better to pop off continuously with no rational basis but lots of indignation.
It’s not *just* political motivations though is it? For some, they feel that they don’t want what they see as a public health disaster getting any worse than they see it already is.I’m not saying they are wrong or right, but they do exist, and they aren’t going to let up just because others keep telling them it’s still the longest half time in history.
Despite all the machinations about CV on here, other threads and the media I remain somewhat confused about a couple of things:
1. Has anybody coherently explained was has happened and is going on in London. It seems as though the virus has exited the capital in some way but I cannot find any 'concrete' reason why. Similar for New York?
2. I assume that the usual flu has continued to make its way through the population over the winter and that somewhere between 10k and 20k succumbed to it as per a normal year. These must be contained within the deaths and is there any analysis of how many there have been and is there a contribution to excess deaths along with the lack of elective procedures and deaths through cancer, heart attacks, renal failure and the like. Or has CV, as the big boy, kicked flu out of town these days?
Can anybody shed any light on these topics?
1. Has anybody coherently explained was has happened and is going on in London. It seems as though the virus has exited the capital in some way but I cannot find any 'concrete' reason why. Similar for New York?
2. I assume that the usual flu has continued to make its way through the population over the winter and that somewhere between 10k and 20k succumbed to it as per a normal year. These must be contained within the deaths and is there any analysis of how many there have been and is there a contribution to excess deaths along with the lack of elective procedures and deaths through cancer, heart attacks, renal failure and the like. Or has CV, as the big boy, kicked flu out of town these days?
Can anybody shed any light on these topics?
Garvin said:
Despite all the machinations about CV on here, other threads and the media I remain somewhat confused about a couple of things:
1. Has anybody coherently explained was has happened and is going on in London. It seems as though the virus has exited the capital in some way but I cannot find any 'concrete' reason why. Similar for New York?
2. I assume that the usual flu has continued to make its way through the population over the winter and that somewhere between 10k and 20k succumbed to it as per a normal year. These must be contained within the deaths and is there any analysis of how many there have been and is there a contribution to excess deaths along with the lack of elective procedures and deaths through cancer, heart attacks, renal failure and the like. Or has CV, as the big boy, kicked flu out of town these days?
Can anybody shed any light on these topics?
Here is one theory:1. Has anybody coherently explained was has happened and is going on in London. It seems as though the virus has exited the capital in some way but I cannot find any 'concrete' reason why. Similar for New York?
2. I assume that the usual flu has continued to make its way through the population over the winter and that somewhere between 10k and 20k succumbed to it as per a normal year. These must be contained within the deaths and is there any analysis of how many there have been and is there a contribution to excess deaths along with the lack of elective procedures and deaths through cancer, heart attacks, renal failure and the like. Or has CV, as the big boy, kicked flu out of town these days?
Can anybody shed any light on these topics?
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavi...
Stu T said:
If that article was the other way round, i.e. herd immunity is at 80% and we are many years away, it would be front page news, all over the bbc homepage etc. Amazing how our press is following the doom and generally not pushing the other potential viewpoint. It does logically make sense to me. Countries that now seem to be seeing an uptick (albeit in cases rather than deaths) are ones that locked down too early to get the the 20%.
I still maintain we’re all going to out turn the same in the end, just at different speeds.
panholio said:
Stu T said:
If that article was the other way round, i.e. herd immunity is at 80% and we are many years away, it would be front page news, all over the bbc homepage etc. Amazing how our press is following the doom and generally not pushing the other potential viewpoint. It does logically make sense to me. Countries that now seem to be seeing an uptick (albeit in cases rather than deaths) are ones that locked down too early to get the the 20%.
I still maintain we’re all going to out turn the same in the end, just at different speeds.
https://twitter.com/richardhorton1/status/12852064...
Good news I think?
Editor of Lancet : The phase 1/2 Oxford COVID-19 vaccine trial is now published. The vaccine is safe, well-tolerated, and immunogenic. Congratulations to Pedro Folegatti and colleagues. These results are extremely encouraging.
Good news I think?
Editor of Lancet : The phase 1/2 Oxford COVID-19 vaccine trial is now published. The vaccine is safe, well-tolerated, and immunogenic. Congratulations to Pedro Folegatti and colleagues. These results are extremely encouraging.
panholio said:
Stu T said:
If that article was the other way round, i.e. herd immunity is at 80% and we are many years away, it would be front page news, all over the bbc homepage etc. Amazing how our press is following the doom and generally not pushing the other potential viewpoint. It does logically make sense to me. Countries that now seem to be seeing an uptick (albeit in cases rather than deaths) are ones that locked down too early to get the the 20%.
I still maintain we’re all going to out turn the same in the end, just at different speeds.
andy43 said:
https://twitter.com/richardhorton1/status/12852064...
Good news I think?
Editor of Lancet : The phase 1/2 Oxford COVID-19 vaccine trial is now published. The vaccine is safe, well-tolerated, and immunogenic. Congratulations to Pedro Folegatti and colleagues. These results are extremely encouraging.
The article in the Lancet is hereGood news I think?
Editor of Lancet : The phase 1/2 Oxford COVID-19 vaccine trial is now published. The vaccine is safe, well-tolerated, and immunogenic. Congratulations to Pedro Folegatti and colleagues. These results are extremely encouraging.
https://www.thelancet.com/lancet/article/s0140-673...
andy43 said:
https://twitter.com/richardhorton1/status/12852064...
Good news I think?
Editor of Lancet : The phase 1/2 Oxford COVID-19 vaccine trial is now published. The vaccine is safe, well-tolerated, and immunogenic. Congratulations to Pedro Folegatti and colleagues. These results are extremely encouraging.
Very good news. I've only just skimmed the paper but it looks like the phase 1 couldn't have gone much better.Good news I think?
Editor of Lancet : The phase 1/2 Oxford COVID-19 vaccine trial is now published. The vaccine is safe, well-tolerated, and immunogenic. Congratulations to Pedro Folegatti and colleagues. These results are extremely encouraging.
Garvin said:
Despite all the machinations about CV on here, other threads and the media I remain somewhat confused about a couple of things:
1. Has anybody coherently explained was has happened and is going on in London. It seems as though the virus has exited the capital in some way but I cannot find any 'concrete' reason why. Similar for New York?
2. I assume that the usual flu has continued to make its way through the population over the winter and that somewhere between 10k and 20k succumbed to it as per a normal year. These must be contained within the deaths and is there any analysis of how many there have been and is there a contribution to excess deaths along with the lack of elective procedures and deaths through cancer, heart attacks, renal failure and the like. Or has CV, as the big boy, kicked flu out of town these days?
Can anybody shed any light on these topics?
2 - The Financial Times have been championing excess deaths for a while now and have a free page that summarises them from around the world. Though a fair few of those graphs are out of date (Scroll down past the weird proportion graph, no idea what that is trying to show) they do give an indication of what's really going on with the deaths and you can compare different countries1. Has anybody coherently explained was has happened and is going on in London. It seems as though the virus has exited the capital in some way but I cannot find any 'concrete' reason why. Similar for New York?
2. I assume that the usual flu has continued to make its way through the population over the winter and that somewhere between 10k and 20k succumbed to it as per a normal year. These must be contained within the deaths and is there any analysis of how many there have been and is there a contribution to excess deaths along with the lack of elective procedures and deaths through cancer, heart attacks, renal failure and the like. Or has CV, as the big boy, kicked flu out of town these days?
Can anybody shed any light on these topics?
https://www.ft.com/content/a26fbf7e-48f8-11ea-aeb3...
I'm equally as flummoxed about your point 1., it's not just London and New York - every country that has had a lot of infections has a massive spike then drops right down, no matter what is put in place to halt the spread. Nowhere has a 'flattened curve', it's just a big spike.
rover 623gsi said:
Link said:
However, the trial has also been expanded to other countries because levels of coronavirus are low in the UK, making it hard to know if the vaccine is effective.
There will be a large trial involving 30,000 people in the US as well 2,000 in South Africa and 5,000 in Brazil.
Hmmm, so levels are low in the UK.There will be a large trial involving 30,000 people in the US as well 2,000 in South Africa and 5,000 in Brazil.
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