Boris Johnson- Prime Minister (Vol. 4)
Discussion
edh said:
The makeup of SAGE does look like a factor. No public health people, too much focus on modelling without considering the validity of the model and / or inputs.
My point about PPE was less about stockpiles and more about a fast response to new procurement.
New procurement was limited since the majority of PPE comes from China and they banned the export of it very early doors. I should know, I was trying to procure some on a fairly large scale and it was practically impossible due to limited flights out and customs checking all packages. Its Not as simple as raising a purchase order and it arriving, especially when other manufacturers such as Turkey raised prices unreasonably or provided substandard gear.My point about PPE was less about stockpiles and more about a fast response to new procurement.
steveatesh said:
No arguments from me about the PPE thing, apart from of course I have no idea of the cost of setting up and maintaining a huge amount of the stuff on a just-in-case basis, and by the time we had realised what was happening (bear in mind various authorities including WHO and the European equivalent of the CCD were saying risks from the virus were low as late as mid February) we were competing globally for the stuff.
There’s a lot that could have been done differently with a combination of better planning, more money spend on preparing for risks and of course hindsight. The most interesting thing for me was Norths suggestion that the way SAGE was set up allows the introduction of Group Think so nothing was seriously challenged.
We need a lock stock review of the way we handle crisis end to end.
Simulations and exercises like Winter Willow in 2007 and Cygnus in 2016 all highlighted these issues though. There’s a lot that could have been done differently with a combination of better planning, more money spend on preparing for risks and of course hindsight. The most interesting thing for me was Norths suggestion that the way SAGE was set up allows the introduction of Group Think so nothing was seriously challenged.
We need a lock stock review of the way we handle crisis end to end.
The government knew this wasn’t a flu pandemic weeks before it arrived. It seems surprising that someone said “hey Boris, looks like there’s pandemic coming form China“ so he said “what do we do now” and someone else said “well we’ve got a pandemic plan” and nobody noticed it was for flu viruses and was different from what everyone else was doing.
ToastMan76 said:
edh said:
The makeup of SAGE does look like a factor. No public health people, too much focus on modelling without considering the validity of the model and / or inputs.
My point about PPE was less about stockpiles and more about a fast response to new procurement.
New procurement was limited since the majority of PPE comes from China and they banned the export of it very early doors. I should know, I was trying to procure some on a fairly large scale and it was practically impossible due to limited flights out and customs checking all packages. Its Not as simple as raising a purchase order and it arriving, especially when other manufacturers such as Turkey raised prices unreasonably or provided substandard gear.My point about PPE was less about stockpiles and more about a fast response to new procurement.
edh said:
The makeup of SAGE does look like a factor. No public health people, too much focus on modelling without considering the validity of the model and / or inputs.
My point about PPE was less about stockpiles and more about a fast response to new procurement.
The trouble is also that the government kept repeating their mantra “following the science” without ever saying what science they were following. It’s ok though because they’re following some science so it all looks good. But wait all those other countries are following different science, oh and we’re suddenly changing tack, it must be the science though. My point about PPE was less about stockpiles and more about a fast response to new procurement.
What? the science was a plan for the wrong kind of pandemic and then we changed strategy due to Shagger Ferguson’s models that were based on the nhs being overwhelmed and exponential growth. Then there was the carehome strategy.
This is about poor crisis management and poor decision making and yes, austerity and years of government not reviewing plans, not just blaming Blair for only making a flu pandemic plan in 1997.
El stovey said:
The trouble is also that the government kept repeating their mantra “following the science” without ever saying what science they were following. It’s ok though because they’re following some science so it all looks good. But wait all those other countries are following different science, oh and we’re suddenly changing tack, it must be the science though.
It's a bit of a myth that other Western nations were doing dramatically better than us though, or following dramatically different science. France, Italy, Spain, Germany, Ireland, Belgium - they all followed similar paths and certainly in the first couple of months the statistics just weren't there to suggest radically different outcomes.That's not to say there weren't differences in preparedness, or action, but the general shape of the response was pretty much agreed across Europe - isolate, protect, hope it goes away.
Things like stockpiling of PPE and emergency manufacture should surely be something that rests with the public health body though shouldn't it? I believe PHE has a budget assigned for these things - what has it been spending it on?
Vanden Saab said:
Your post shows you have no understanding of what a WTO exit is or what they do or do not do. TBF it would have been better if Tuna had called it leaving without a full FTA but even so...I can guarantee that if a full FTA is not possible there will be a plethora of 'side deals' in place before the end of the year.
I have some idea. I've been following the developments, or rather the disbanding, of its regulator body over recent years.I agree that it would be better to call a hard brexit anything but 'WTO' as it is no longer viable. The USA have killed it. It didn't suit them.
What that means is that it is a free-for-all. WTO terms is something we can ask other trading blocks and individual countries to base agreements on, but there's no obligation for them to do so.
The WTO is dead. It would be kind to bury it and never refer to it again.
You can guarantee nothing.
Tuna said:
El stovey said:
The trouble is also that the government kept repeating their mantra “following the science” without ever saying what science they were following. It’s ok though because they’re following some science so it all looks good. But wait all those other countries are following different science, oh and we’re suddenly changing tack, it must be the science though.
It's a bit of a myth that other Western nations were doing dramatically better than us though, or following dramatically different science. France, Italy, Spain, Germany, Ireland, Belgium - they all followed similar paths and certainly in the first couple of months the statistics just weren't there to suggest radically different outcomes.That's not to say there weren't differences in preparedness, or action, but the general shape of the response was pretty much agreed across Europe - isolate, protect, hope it goes away.
Things like stockpiling of PPE and emergency manufacture should surely be something that rests with the public health body though shouldn't it? I believe PHE has a budget assigned for these things - what has it been spending it on?
As to "following the science" there's a misunderstanding in the post you replied to, at least an apparent misunderstanding, it may be deliberate.
Science is a process, not a single infallible viewpoint. Infallibility is for religion, not science.
Expecting this process to lead to any form of singularity is misguided with anything much beyond recognising a test tube. The job Vallance has, and Cabinet beyond him, is to distil viewpoints which will include disagreements in order to arrive at recommendations and ultimately, policy.
Thinking that other countries have better infallibility (!) which happens with some as a matter of routine in virus threads, is folly at this stage and beyond the inherent absurdity it suggests bias.
turbobloke said:
Indeed.
As to "following the science" there's a misunderstanding in the post you replied to, at least an apparent misunderstanding, it may be deliberate.
Science is a process, not a single infallible viewpoint. Infallibility is for religion, not science.
Expecting this process to lead to any form of singularity is misguided with anything much beyond recognising a test tube. The job Vallance has, and Cabinet beyond him, is to distil viewpoints which will include disagreements in order to arrive at recommendations and ultimately, policy.
Thinking that other countries have better infallibility (!) which happens with some as a matter of routine in virus threads, is folly at this stage and beyond the inherent absurdity it suggests bias.
It suggests bias when you have an inability to recognise that the U.K. adopted different policies to other countries, that were criticised at the time, that likely helped lead to worse outcomes. As to "following the science" there's a misunderstanding in the post you replied to, at least an apparent misunderstanding, it may be deliberate.
Science is a process, not a single infallible viewpoint. Infallibility is for religion, not science.
Expecting this process to lead to any form of singularity is misguided with anything much beyond recognising a test tube. The job Vallance has, and Cabinet beyond him, is to distil viewpoints which will include disagreements in order to arrive at recommendations and ultimately, policy.
Thinking that other countries have better infallibility (!) which happens with some as a matter of routine in virus threads, is folly at this stage and beyond the inherent absurdity it suggests bias.
Unfortunately, as we can see now “Following the science” was actually following an old pandemic plan for the wrong kind of pandemic, not being able to test and trace due to lack of capability, delaying preventative measures like holding Cheltenham festival and football matches and keeping pubs and restaurants open but “urging” people not to go to them due to the science of “doing the right things at the right time” which is apparently another term for avoiding behavioural fatigue and inadequate policies for protecting the old and vulnerable when they were identified early on as being most at risk.
So no the U.K. has not been following the science, it was following the wrong pandemic plan and ending up not really following any method leading to high death tolls and longer lockdowns and introducing test and trace and quarantines long after they were needed and in a half arsed way.
Helicopter123 said:
frisbee said:
Tuna said:
As per the previous thread, the current situation in Hong Kong and China is going to be a test of this government's approach.
Equally, we're reaching a critical time in the Brexit negotiations (three weeks and counting). The EU has blinked, but the question is whether we end up accepting some half hearted compromise, force a real concession or go for broke with a WTO exit.
Unfortunately, as we're working through the pandemic, I'm pretty sure the anger and frustration at the whole process is going to overwhelm some people - and we're going to see the blame game fought in the media and through politics. Add in the challenge of economic recovery and even the best government is going to struggle to keep support.
Difficult times ahead.
The EU haven't blinked.Equally, we're reaching a critical time in the Brexit negotiations (three weeks and counting). The EU has blinked, but the question is whether we end up accepting some half hearted compromise, force a real concession or go for broke with a WTO exit.
Unfortunately, as we're working through the pandemic, I'm pretty sure the anger and frustration at the whole process is going to overwhelm some people - and we're going to see the blame game fought in the media and through politics. Add in the challenge of economic recovery and even the best government is going to struggle to keep support.
Difficult times ahead.
Also great to see you are continuing the fine Brexit tradition of blaming others nice and early!
Worrying, very worrying.
All this time later and they're still making the same excuses for why it's not working out.
WindyCommon said:
Boris looks a shadow of his pre-CV self to me. Like a batsman who’s lost his nerve against fast bowling, he seems unprepared to make the clear and decisive movements necessary. Whether this is a result of his personal CV19 experience, or simply a reaction to the undoubted stress of being PM at a time like this, I am unsure.
But right now he’s not the player he was. Or the player we (s)elected.
His entire career has been hiding from making tough decisions and passing the blame to others when things go wrong.But right now he’s not the player he was. Or the player we (s)elected.
He's utterly out of his depth now the buck stops with him and there are no easy slogans to get him out of it.
El stovey said:
It suggests bias when you have an inability to recognise that the U.K. adopted different policies to other countries, that were criticised at the time, that likely helped lead to worse outcomes.
Unfortunately, as we can see now “Following the science” was actually following an old pandemic plan for the wrong kind of pandemic, not being able to test and trace due to lack of capability, delaying preventative measures like holding Cheltenham festival and football matches and keeping pubs and restaurants open but “urging” people not to go to them due to the science of “doing the right things at the right time” which is apparently another term for avoiding behavioural fatigue and inadequate policies for protecting the old and vulnerable when they were identified early on as being most at risk.
So no the U.K. has not been following the science, it was following the wrong pandemic plan and ending up not really following any method leading to high death tolls and longer lockdowns and introducing test and trace and quarantines long after they were needed and in a half arsed way.
What was the correct pandemic plan? Agreed there were cock ups around care homes, but what else would have been part of this 'perfect plan' which you seem to know and thousands don't?Unfortunately, as we can see now “Following the science” was actually following an old pandemic plan for the wrong kind of pandemic, not being able to test and trace due to lack of capability, delaying preventative measures like holding Cheltenham festival and football matches and keeping pubs and restaurants open but “urging” people not to go to them due to the science of “doing the right things at the right time” which is apparently another term for avoiding behavioural fatigue and inadequate policies for protecting the old and vulnerable when they were identified early on as being most at risk.
So no the U.K. has not been following the science, it was following the wrong pandemic plan and ending up not really following any method leading to high death tolls and longer lockdowns and introducing test and trace and quarantines long after they were needed and in a half arsed way.
El stovey said:
The trouble is also that the government kept repeating their mantra “following the science” without ever saying what science they were following.
It was a slogan to attempt to pass the buck and avoid responsibility for the big decisions. Johnson's trademark move for this entire career.fastraxx said:
El stovey said:
It suggests bias when you have an inability to recognise that the U.K. adopted different policies to other countries, that were criticised at the time, that likely helped lead to worse outcomes.
Unfortunately, as we can see now “Following the science” was actually following an old pandemic plan for the wrong kind of pandemic, not being able to test and trace due to lack of capability, delaying preventative measures like holding Cheltenham festival and football matches and keeping pubs and restaurants open but “urging” people not to go to them due to the science of “doing the right things at the right time” which is apparently another term for avoiding behavioural fatigue and inadequate policies for protecting the old and vulnerable when they were identified early on as being most at risk.
So no the U.K. has not been following the science, it was following the wrong pandemic plan and ending up not really following any method leading to high death tolls and longer lockdowns and introducing test and trace and quarantines long after they were needed and in a half arsed way.
What was the correct pandemic plan? Agreed there were cock ups around care homes, but what else would have been part of this 'perfect plan' which you seem to know and thousands don't?Unfortunately, as we can see now “Following the science” was actually following an old pandemic plan for the wrong kind of pandemic, not being able to test and trace due to lack of capability, delaying preventative measures like holding Cheltenham festival and football matches and keeping pubs and restaurants open but “urging” people not to go to them due to the science of “doing the right things at the right time” which is apparently another term for avoiding behavioural fatigue and inadequate policies for protecting the old and vulnerable when they were identified early on as being most at risk.
So no the U.K. has not been following the science, it was following the wrong pandemic plan and ending up not really following any method leading to high death tolls and longer lockdowns and introducing test and trace and quarantines long after they were needed and in a half arsed way.
fastraxx said:
What was the correct pandemic plan? Agreed there were cock ups around care homes, but what else would have been part of this 'perfect plan' which you seem to know and thousands don't?
More testing and contact tracing at the beginning and continued through the pandemic, earlier and stricter lockdowns and ensuring the target group for the virus were better protected and especially not sending sick people to carehomes. Clearer communication and advice for the public. Releasing the details of changes to rules at the same time as announcing the changes.It’s not me vs thousands, all these mistakes have been pointed out frequently and as they were happening.
The U.K. is being criticised all over the world for its handling of the virus. Nobody is looking at the U.K. and wishing they’d followed our plan or decision making failures.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/biggest-failur...
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/06/britai...
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/30/uk/britain-coro...
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavi...
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/coronavirus-38-...
https://www.ft.com/content/af17147c-84a1-11ea-b555...
The mistakes go far beyond “cock ups around care homes”
El stovey said:
More testing and contact tracing at the beginning and continued through the pandemic, earlier and stricter lockdowns and ensuring the target group for the virus were better protected and especially not sending sick people to carehomes. Clearer communication and advice for the public. Releasing the details of changes to rules at the same time as announcing the changes.
It’s not me vs thousands, all these mistakes have been pointed out frequently and as they were happening.
The U.K. is being criticised all over the world for its handling of the virus. Nobody is looking at the U.K. and wishing they’d followed our plan or decision making failures.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/biggest-failur...
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/06/britai...
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/30/uk/britain-coro...
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavi...
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/coronavirus-38-...
https://www.ft.com/content/af17147c-84a1-11ea-b555...
The mistakes go far beyond “cock ups around care homes”
Hindsight bias is a wonderful thing. I will be convinced when there is a proper report and investigation completed. Not a bunch of angry politically motivated posts/articles.It’s not me vs thousands, all these mistakes have been pointed out frequently and as they were happening.
The U.K. is being criticised all over the world for its handling of the virus. Nobody is looking at the U.K. and wishing they’d followed our plan or decision making failures.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/biggest-failur...
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/06/britai...
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/30/uk/britain-coro...
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavi...
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/coronavirus-38-...
https://www.ft.com/content/af17147c-84a1-11ea-b555...
The mistakes go far beyond “cock ups around care homes”
fastraxx said:
Hindsight bias is a wonderful thing. I will be convinced when there is a proper report and investigation completed. Not a bunch of angry politically motivated posts/articles.
All these mistakes were pointed out frequently as they were happening. Presumably for balance there’s posts and articles showing how successful the U.K. has been in managing the pandemic?
Edited by anonymous-user on Monday 1st June 11:07
mx5nut said:
Of course they do, we just can't reveal our negotiating position and show our hand yet
You mean "can't reveal our negotiating position" as in "published them in full for anyone to read"??? Links here: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/our-app...
Bonus points for a classic 'nut style flat out lie.
mx5nut said:
WindyCommon said:
Boris looks a shadow of his pre-CV self to me. Like a batsman who’s lost his nerve against fast bowling, he seems unprepared to make the clear and decisive movements necessary. Whether this is a result of his personal CV19 experience, or simply a reaction to the undoubted stress of being PM at a time like this, I am unsure.
But right now he’s not the player he was. Or the player we (s)elected.
His entire career has been hiding from making tough decisions and passing the blame to others when things go wrong.But right now he’s not the player he was. Or the player we (s)elected.
He's utterly out of his depth now the buck stops with him and there are no easy slogans to get him out of it.
El stovey said:
turbobloke said:
Indeed.
As to "following the science" there's a misunderstanding in the post you replied to, at least an apparent misunderstanding, it may be deliberate.
Science is a process, not a single infallible viewpoint. Infallibility is for religion, not science.
Expecting this process to lead to any form of singularity is misguided with anything much beyond recognising a test tube. The job Vallance has, and Cabinet beyond him, is to distil viewpoints which will include disagreements in order to arrive at recommendations and ultimately, policy.
Thinking that other countries have better infallibility (!) which happens with some as a matter of routine in virus threads, is folly at this stage and beyond the inherent absurdity it suggests bias.
It suggests bias when you have an inability to recognise that the U.K. adopted different policies to other countries, that were criticised at the time, that likely helped lead to worse outcomes. As to "following the science" there's a misunderstanding in the post you replied to, at least an apparent misunderstanding, it may be deliberate.
Science is a process, not a single infallible viewpoint. Infallibility is for religion, not science.
Expecting this process to lead to any form of singularity is misguided with anything much beyond recognising a test tube. The job Vallance has, and Cabinet beyond him, is to distil viewpoints which will include disagreements in order to arrive at recommendations and ultimately, policy.
Thinking that other countries have better infallibility (!) which happens with some as a matter of routine in virus threads, is folly at this stage and beyond the inherent absurdity it suggests bias.
Unfortunately, as we can see now “Following the science” was actually following an old pandemic plan for the wrong kind of pandemic, not being able to test and trace due to lack of capability, delaying preventative measures like holding Cheltenham festival and football matches and keeping pubs and restaurants open but “urging” people not to go to them due to the science of “doing the right things at the right time” which is apparently another term for avoiding behavioural fatigue and inadequate policies for protecting the old and vulnerable when they were identified early on as being most at risk.
So no the U.K. has not been following the science, it was following the wrong pandemic plan and ending up not really following any method leading to high death tolls and longer lockdowns and introducing test and trace and quarantines long after they were needed and in a half arsed way.
I'd agree on care homes, we knew the stratification and comorbidities problem but - I think - didn't emphasis enough care in transfer from soon-to-be overwhelmed Lombardy type hospitals [8 'hospitals' built remember]. But this is also responsibility of PHE & Scottish system and care homes themselves, in my opinion. Some did a proper 'staff live on site / airlock for all contact' type regime, most didn't...
Remember the fuss about Cygnus and how it showed us we may have been short of a few gowns? What it actually showed is that we had nothing in place at all for anything worse than flu, despite 20 years of warning, like most western countries.
As I've said before, a better educated public could have got us out of lockdown a lot faster, instead top flight journos were still asking ministers and Health officials how to pass cutlery at a barbeque 9 weeks in. That's one of the shockers for me.
Dropping TTI and not seeing it as something to suspend but ramp up capability with the foresight of the exit strategy is one that baffles me also.
andy_s said:
Dropping TTI and not seeing it as something to suspend but ramp up capability with the foresight of the exit strategy is one that baffles me also.
I've been commenting on this for what seems like months... It's now been made clear that PHE tracing capacity was tiny & they never even attempted to engage LA's env health teams who had up to 5000 staff who could do this. Then March12 and nothing.. Seems SAGE wasn't interested in TTIGassing Station | News, Politics & Economics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff