CV19 - Cure worse than the disease? (Vol 3)
Discussion
sambucket said:
Elysium said:
I was musing on our predicament this morning and had an idea.
Why don't we simply drop all measures for 1 week, then reinstate them and wait 2 weeks?
This is pretty low risk, there are hardly any cases now and if the number of people with the virus doubles in a week its no great shakes. We could take some extra steps to keep the elderly and vulnerable out of the way, so very low risk in terms of fatalities and no threat to hospital capacity.
If nothing bad happens, we drop everything permanently and try to figure out why we did all these things in the first place.
Seems like a good plan to me.
This was the original plan proposed by imperial wasn't it? Back when sustained suppression was considered impossible. There was trigger ICU levels in and out, with binary state chances. For 18 months! Adaptive triggering it was called. I think originally it was preferred to not have phased return at all, and jump instantly between states.Why don't we simply drop all measures for 1 week, then reinstate them and wait 2 weeks?
This is pretty low risk, there are hardly any cases now and if the number of people with the virus doubles in a week its no great shakes. We could take some extra steps to keep the elderly and vulnerable out of the way, so very low risk in terms of fatalities and no threat to hospital capacity.
If nothing bad happens, we drop everything permanently and try to figure out why we did all these things in the first place.
Seems like a good plan to me.
This would be a one off experiment to see if all this nonsense actually has a purpose.
FN2TypeR said:
Elysium said:
10% improvement in schools going back is a negative, I am at 100% already. I need something worthwhile.
You're not gonna get that whilst speaking to him, that's for sure.https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/actions...
sambucket said:
FN2TypeR said:
Elysium said:
10% improvement in schools going back is a negative, I am at 100% already. I need something worthwhile.
You're not gonna get that whilst speaking to him, that's for sure.https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/actions...
sambucket said:
Elysium said:
I was musing on our predicament this morning and had an idea.
Why don't we simply drop all measures for 1 week, then reinstate them and wait 2 weeks?
This is pretty low risk, there are hardly any cases now and if the number of people with the virus doubles in a week its no great shakes. We could take some extra steps to keep the elderly and vulnerable out of the way, so very low risk in terms of fatalities and no threat to hospital capacity.
If nothing bad happens, we drop everything permanently and try to figure out why we did all these things in the first place.
Seems like a good plan to me.
This was the original plan proposed by imperial wasn't it? Back when sustained suppression was considered impossible. There was trigger ICU levels in and out, with binary state chances. For 18 months! Adaptive triggering it was called. I think originally it was preferred to not have phased return at all, and jump instantly between states.Why don't we simply drop all measures for 1 week, then reinstate them and wait 2 weeks?
This is pretty low risk, there are hardly any cases now and if the number of people with the virus doubles in a week its no great shakes. We could take some extra steps to keep the elderly and vulnerable out of the way, so very low risk in terms of fatalities and no threat to hospital capacity.
If nothing bad happens, we drop everything permanently and try to figure out why we did all these things in the first place.
Seems like a good plan to me.
Mrs just had her 16 week appointment, by phone.
20 week scan is in august, I still won't be able to go. (But we could book a private one where we can both go, as we had to do for the 12 week)
25 week appointment will also be by telephone as the NHS still won't want to see patients in another 2 months time.
The NHS ability to adapt is horrendous, their murder toll from lack of care over the next 10 years is going to be prolific.
Atleast the statistics wont drop to far below the 5 year average as they'll keep it topped up.
Absolute waste of money.
Anyone know if you can have babies delivered on bupa?
20 week scan is in august, I still won't be able to go. (But we could book a private one where we can both go, as we had to do for the 12 week)
25 week appointment will also be by telephone as the NHS still won't want to see patients in another 2 months time.
The NHS ability to adapt is horrendous, their murder toll from lack of care over the next 10 years is going to be prolific.
Atleast the statistics wont drop to far below the 5 year average as they'll keep it topped up.
Absolute waste of money.
Anyone know if you can have babies delivered on bupa?
johnboy1975 said:
I would wear a snood providing it's not baking hot. I'm hoping schools are a 100% cert for August/September. But I have no faith in the government to keep to this plan if theres a slight uptick. Best case, I can see a series of local lockdowns fecking up kids education throughout the autumn and winter
How many cases a day are you at now? When do the masks come off? Jan 2021? Later? Never?
I have a snood too. I have a bunch for biking, feels much less weird. I think it counts as double layer, but need to check that! How many cases a day are you at now? When do the masks come off? Jan 2021? Later? Never?
7 day average is 8.4 cases. They found a cluster of cases near the border recently.
Re masks, yes I would guess early 2021. I was in town today and it was a typical saturday, no masks at all. But they are easing us in I think. Masks will be a feature at least for winter in Scotland. Emerging evidence can't be ignored anymore. UK is increasingly isolated in its attitude to masks.
It's a pain, but if it increases chances of keeping schools open etc, even by a small amount, it's hard to argue with.
Edited by anonymous-user on Saturday 4th July 18:54
Zoobeef said:
Mrs just had her 16 week appointment, by phone.
20 week scan is in august, I still won't be able to go. (But we could book a private one where we can both go, as we had to do for the 12 week)
25 week appointment will also be by telephone as the NHS still won't want to see patients in another 2 months time.
The NHS ability to adapt is horrendous, their murder toll from lack of care over the next 10 years is going to be prolific.
Atleast the statistics wont drop to far below the 5 year average as they'll keep it topped up.
Absolute waste of money.
Anyone know if you can have babies delivered on bupa?
Could you not cancel the birth and reschedule?20 week scan is in august, I still won't be able to go. (But we could book a private one where we can both go, as we had to do for the 12 week)
25 week appointment will also be by telephone as the NHS still won't want to see patients in another 2 months time.
The NHS ability to adapt is horrendous, their murder toll from lack of care over the next 10 years is going to be prolific.
Atleast the statistics wont drop to far below the 5 year average as they'll keep it topped up.
Absolute waste of money.
Anyone know if you can have babies delivered on bupa?
After all, the education of the child is going to be delayed...
Snoods?
I was wondering about going shopping with a full face helmet with the visor down come the day we all have to start wearing masks.
I just don't get why we suddenly need to start wearing masks now when the virus has been around for months,
Maybe I'm being stupid or cynical or simply missing some vital piece of information but why now?
I'm now convinced that a) the governments both Westminster and Edinburgh based have no real grasp of the situation and b)are trying to manage us whilst making political gestures at each other at our expense
And as for all the certified CV19 deaths, how many were caused just by CV19 and how many were just "hurried along" by the virus.
I'm as mad as hell and I'm not going to take it anymore. Howard Beale (Peter Finch) 1976
I don't have to tell you things are bad. Everybody knows things are bad. It's a depression. Everybody's out of work, or scared of losing their job. The dollar buys a nickel's worth, banks are going bust, shopkeepers keep a gun under the counter, punks are running wild in the street, and there's nobody anywhere who seems to know what to do, and there's no end to it! We know the air is unfit to breathe and our food is unfit to eat, and we sit watching our TVs while some local newscaster tells us that today we had fifteen homicides and sixty-three violent crimes, as if that's the way it's supposed to be! We know things are bad — worse than bad. They're crazy. It's like everything everywhere is going crazy, so we don't go out anymore.
I was wondering about going shopping with a full face helmet with the visor down come the day we all have to start wearing masks.
I just don't get why we suddenly need to start wearing masks now when the virus has been around for months,
Maybe I'm being stupid or cynical or simply missing some vital piece of information but why now?
I'm now convinced that a) the governments both Westminster and Edinburgh based have no real grasp of the situation and b)are trying to manage us whilst making political gestures at each other at our expense
And as for all the certified CV19 deaths, how many were caused just by CV19 and how many were just "hurried along" by the virus.
I'm as mad as hell and I'm not going to take it anymore. Howard Beale (Peter Finch) 1976
I don't have to tell you things are bad. Everybody knows things are bad. It's a depression. Everybody's out of work, or scared of losing their job. The dollar buys a nickel's worth, banks are going bust, shopkeepers keep a gun under the counter, punks are running wild in the street, and there's nobody anywhere who seems to know what to do, and there's no end to it! We know the air is unfit to breathe and our food is unfit to eat, and we sit watching our TVs while some local newscaster tells us that today we had fifteen homicides and sixty-three violent crimes, as if that's the way it's supposed to be! We know things are bad — worse than bad. They're crazy. It's like everything everywhere is going crazy, so we don't go out anymore.
Skyedriver said:
Could you not cancel the birth and reschedule?
After all, the education of the child is going to be delayed...
Probably not given all the mrs fertility treatments had been cancelled. Then a few weeks after the cancellation she found out she was pregnant. Her body obviously decided "fAfter all, the education of the child is going to be delayed...
king NHS, i'll do it myself".Just had a letter saying its starting back up so she has to phone them and let them know it's too late now.
Prob best not tempting fate by cancelling this one though.
Skyedriver said:
Snoods?
I was wondering about going shopping with a full face helmet with the visor down come the day we all have to start wearing masks.
I just don't get why we suddenly need to start wearing masks now when the virus has been around for months,
It's a combination of three things. I was wondering about going shopping with a full face helmet with the visor down come the day we all have to start wearing masks.
I just don't get why we suddenly need to start wearing masks now when the virus has been around for months,
1. Increased Peer pressure. There are exceptions, but most countries apart from UK increasingly wear masks in public. Even USA is better than us. If UK holds out on masks and ends up on top of deaths per capita, that's not going to look good.
2. Emerging evidence. A bit like steroids, everyone kind of knew masks helped but it takes time to prove it. That evidence is coming in.
3. Ambition. Scotland is increasingly ambitious for very low case numbers. Elimination seemed like a joke a month ago, but is looking more likely now. Masks may be one of the extra steps required to achieve these more aggressive targets.
Edited by anonymous-user on Saturday 4th July 20:10
Elysium said:
sambucket said:
A purely hypothetical question.
Would you wear a mask for 2 months, if you had good confidence it would the increase the odds of schools coming back full-time by 10%?
Not a great question because schools are going back full time. In England at least.Would you wear a mask for 2 months, if you had good confidence it would the increase the odds of schools coming back full-time by 10%?
I would accept mask wearing in public spaces for 2 months if it meant a permanent end to all social distancing measures.
sambucket said:
It's a combination of three things.
1. Increased Peer pressure. There are exceptions, but most countries apart from UK increasingly wear masks in public. Even USA is better than us. If UK holds out on masks and ends up on top of deaths per capita, that's not going to look good.
2. Emerging evidence. A bit like steroids, everyone kind of knew masks helped but it takes time to prove it. That evidence is coming in.
3. Ambition. Scotland is increasingly ambitious for very low case numbers. Elimination seemed like a joke a month ago, but is looking more likely now. Masks may be one of the extra steps required to achieve these more aggressive targets.
The chart you posted above from Travelling Tabby shows that this is basically gone in most of Scotland and has been gone in some of the islands since mid-April. I don’t understand what criminalising someone who walks into Tesco in Stornaway without a mask is really going to do.1. Increased Peer pressure. There are exceptions, but most countries apart from UK increasingly wear masks in public. Even USA is better than us. If UK holds out on masks and ends up on top of deaths per capita, that's not going to look good.
2. Emerging evidence. A bit like steroids, everyone kind of knew masks helped but it takes time to prove it. That evidence is coming in.
3. Ambition. Scotland is increasingly ambitious for very low case numbers. Elimination seemed like a joke a month ago, but is looking more likely now. Masks may be one of the extra steps required to achieve these more aggressive targets.
Edited by sambucket on Saturday 4th July 20:10
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