CV19 - Cure worse than the disease? (Vol 3)
Discussion
Twinfan said:
Or have a missed something in the last month? I would just assume that the lack of symptoms means they have a very low viral load and their body is killing it off before it takes hold, and therefore onwards transmission would be very low risk to others.
I don't think that is quite right.My understanding (which could be wrong) is as follows;
If the virus enters the body and gets defeated by the first line of defence e.g. antibodies in the mucus (IgA) then the person isn't likely to develop antibodies in the blood (IgM / IgG). I think they are also unlikely to test positive via a PCR test because the virus hasn't being able to get a strong foothold in the cells and started to replicate itself at scale. (I say this because a very large proportion of people who tested positive via PCR go on to test positive for IgG antibodies).
If the virus does get to that point, then your body starts to make millions and millions of virus copies. The quantity of virus measured in the respiratory tract is what is called the 'viral load'.
That doesn't mean though you are necessarily giving the virus to other people - just that you are creating lots of new copies of the virus.
The problem is when scientists measured the viral load in the respiratory tract of people who were asymptomatic and symptomatic, they found the viral loads were often high in both cases. They found the same in some children - which caused the initial confusion as to whether children were infectious or not.
So I don't think there is a good correlation between the viral load (i.e. quantity of virus in a person's respiratory tract) and their symptoms.
However, just because you have the virus in your respiratory tract doesn't mean you will give covid to someone else. And we know from the low 'k' value, many infectious people don't pass it to anyone else.
So how does this all fit together?
I believe it is likely related to the dose you receive from another person. My theory is that if you receive a small amount of virus, then your body generates a response via T-cells. This perhaps triggers IgA antibodies in the mucus. At this stage, you won't test positive via PCR. (This is based on the paper which showed many people in close contact with confirmed covid cases developed a T-cell response but didn't ever test positive for covid on a PCR).
If the virus gets past this point, the virus will replicate and you could then have a high viral load, even though you don't have symptoms. However, to infect someone you need to give them quite a lot of virus particles. So if you are singing or shouting at someone close by, you could infect them, even if you are asymptomatic. However, more likely is that you are symptomatic and so are coughing on them.
And if you don't do those things, the number of virus particles will be much lower, and the other person's first line of defence will be able to mop it up without them developing covid. Which you would only see if you checked specifically for T-cell response or IgA, neither of which we normally do.
It's probably going to turn out, just to complete the utter lunacy of the last 4 months, that only people coughing and sneezing pass it on.
And our grandmothers were right all along that "coughs and sneezes spread diseases".
And that quarantining the sick, like with every disease before Covid, would have done the trick.
And our grandmothers were right all along that "coughs and sneezes spread diseases".
And that quarantining the sick, like with every disease before Covid, would have done the trick.
Saweep said:
It's probably going to turn out, just to complete the utter lunacy of the last 4 months, that only people coughing and sneezing pass it on.
And our grandmothers were right all along that "coughs and sneezes spread diseases".
And that quarantining the sick, like with every disease before Covid, would have done the trick.
Honestly, I think that is likely to sum it up. And our grandmothers were right all along that "coughs and sneezes spread diseases".
And that quarantining the sick, like with every disease before Covid, would have done the trick.
Saweep said:
It's probably going to turn out, just to complete the utter lunacy of the last 4 months, that only people coughing and sneezing pass it on.
And our grandmothers were right all along that "coughs and sneezes spread diseases".
And that quarantining the sick, like with every disease before Covid, would have done the trick.
With two slight qualifications, I agree:And our grandmothers were right all along that "coughs and sneezes spread diseases".
And that quarantining the sick, like with every disease before Covid, would have done the trick.
(1) It will turn out that asymptomatic transmission is possible but rare.
(2) Transmission via surfaces (and face touching) may contribute materially.
ORD said:
With two slight qualifications, I agree:
(1) It will turn out that asymptomatic transmission is possible but rare.
(2) Transmission via surfaces (and face touching) may contribute materially.
I think it is pretty much certain asymptomatic infection is rare. Infected people who are asymptomatic might still have a high 'viral load' but those virus particles still need to get out in sufficient quantities to infect someone. So perhaps by singing or shouting. But much more likely via coughing.(1) It will turn out that asymptomatic transmission is possible but rare.
(2) Transmission via surfaces (and face touching) may contribute materially.
I personally doubt the transmission via surfaces will be large 'vector'. I'm sure it is possible in theory, but if it were a big issue we would have seen far greater spread which wouldn't be able to be stopped.
Suddenly SAGE don't feel that bad:-
https://www.independentsage.org/wp-content/uploads...
Basically, 12 months of misery with no real explanation of what would happen at the end of that period. No mention of the economy, other deaths caused by their strategy, etc.
It's a chilling outlook.
https://www.independentsage.org/wp-content/uploads...
Basically, 12 months of misery with no real explanation of what would happen at the end of that period. No mention of the economy, other deaths caused by their strategy, etc.
It's a chilling outlook.
Saweep said:
It's probably going to turn out, just to complete the utter lunacy of the last 4 months, that only people coughing and sneezing pass it on.
And our grandmothers were right all along that "coughs and sneezes spread diseases".
And that quarantining the sick, like with every disease before Covid, would have done the trick.
I suspect so.And our grandmothers were right all along that "coughs and sneezes spread diseases".
And that quarantining the sick, like with every disease before Covid, would have done the trick.
I vaguely remember something about cleanliness too.
ant1973 said:
Suddenly SAGE don't feel that bad:-
https://www.independentsage.org/wp-content/uploads...
Basically, 12 months of misery with no real explanation of what would happen at the end of that period. No mention of the economy, other deaths caused by their strategy, etc.
It's a chilling outlook.
That is pretend SAGE not the real one...https://www.independentsage.org/wp-content/uploads...
Basically, 12 months of misery with no real explanation of what would happen at the end of that period. No mention of the economy, other deaths caused by their strategy, etc.
It's a chilling outlook.
ant1973 said:
Suddenly SAGE don't feel that bad:-
https://www.independentsage.org/wp-content/uploads...
Basically, 12 months of misery with no real explanation of what would happen at the end of that period. No mention of the economy, other deaths caused by their strategy, etc.
It's a chilling outlook.
What planet are these people on? "Following the science" my arse.https://www.independentsage.org/wp-content/uploads...
Basically, 12 months of misery with no real explanation of what would happen at the end of that period. No mention of the economy, other deaths caused by their strategy, etc.
It's a chilling outlook.
grumbledoak said:
Saweep said:
It's probably going to turn out, just to complete the utter lunacy of the last 4 months, that only people coughing and sneezing pass it on.
And our grandmothers were right all along that "coughs and sneezes spread diseases".
And that quarantining the sick, like with every disease before Covid, would have done the trick.
I suspect so.And our grandmothers were right all along that "coughs and sneezes spread diseases".
And that quarantining the sick, like with every disease before Covid, would have done the trick.
I vaguely remember something about cleanliness too.
TheDrBrian said:
Project FEAR! alive and well in Australia
This is what happens when you try to suppress the virus, as soon as you open up off it goes again. 12 weeks of lockdown started too early followed by 4 or 5 weeks of getting back to normal followed by another 6 weeks of lockdown and repeat. https://medium.com/@vernunftundrichtigkeit/coronav...
Interesting article to read by someone who you'd think was rather well qualified to comment even if I suppose it's only going to reinforce opinions on one side while the other side of the pro lockdown argument blanket dismiss everything there.
Interesting article to read by someone who you'd think was rather well qualified to comment even if I suppose it's only going to reinforce opinions on one side while the other side of the pro lockdown argument blanket dismiss everything there.
sambucket said:
Ok here is a loony prediction for you, that you are welcome to quote. Measured from this date forward, over the next 12 months, England will have the longest period of social distancing in Europe, the longest hospital waiting lists, the worst cancer detection rates, the worst PISA scores, the most excess deaths, the largest second wave in winter, the lowest mask use, the worst hit economy, the most travel blacklists, and the steepest rise in anti vax sentiment.
And the second prediction is this thread will blame all this on lockdown.
Do you get some sort of kick out of this?And the second prediction is this thread will blame all this on lockdown.
I can't see any purpose to this post, other than to torment people.
Elysium said:
sambucket said:
Ok here is a loony prediction for you, that you are welcome to quote. Measured from this date forward, over the next 12 months, England will have the longest period of social distancing in Europe, the longest hospital waiting lists, the worst cancer detection rates, the worst PISA scores, the most excess deaths, the largest second wave in winter, the lowest mask use, the worst hit economy, the most travel blacklists, and the steepest rise in anti vax sentiment.
And the second prediction is this thread will blame all this on lockdown.
Do you get some sort of kick out of this?And the second prediction is this thread will blame all this on lockdown.
I can't see any purpose to this post, other than to torment people.
ks).Tormentingly depressing or not.
anonymous said:
[redacted]
Hospital admissions have increased slightly from the data I have seen, however most hospitals in the US have recently re-started elective surgeries and are now back operating at something close to normal - for eg in Florida:https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1279641993...
Also worth remembering what summer temperatures are like in the US States in question - Texas, Arizona and Florida. Most locals tend to stay inside in the air conditioning for the worst of it, and we know air con does a great job of circulating this disease around.
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