Has the world overreacted re Covid-19
Poll: Has the world overreacted re Covid-19
Total Members Polled: 368
Discussion
Condi said:
It's one reason I am convinced that the virus was far more widespread early on than the modelling suggests, and which is in turn why the calculations around how dangerous the virus actually is are also wrong. For younger people it simply is not something to be concerned about, and there is no reason why they should have been locked down once the evidence was there.
That may have been the case in early March I dont think that is the case anymore.The CDC has an estimated IFR of 0.26%
Other studies estimated a range of between 0.5-1%.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01738-2
However the problem with calculating an IFR purely on seroprevalence studies is that many people seem to recover without producing detectable anti-bodies.
So the data is out there, as is the risk by age group. The problem is more hysterical media reporting which is obscuring the basic facts.
The basic facts are, IMO, Covid-19 is about twice as dangerous as a bad seasonal Flu outbreak in the general population. Risk is so skewed by age and co-morbidities that there is no point whatsoever for anyone healthy under the age of 45 or so to take any additional precautions.
mx5nut said:
I’m a doctor and, such is the incestuous nature of medicine, a large number of my friends are doctors and we talk to each other. Folk can believe what they want to believe, but I can tell you that at the height of the pandemic certain hospitals in London were a whisker away from having to start refusing admission to critical care to patients who had treatable illness. The notion is hardly outlandish since this is exactly what happened in Lombardy.
Nobody who is informed and honest will claim that the virus mitigation measures have come without significant cost, including numerous preventable deaths due to various other causes. Nevertheless without mitigation there would have been carnage.
Point of order about death certificates as I saw a comment on this upthread: I’ve signed plenty in my career and I’ve certified half a dozen COVID deaths. These are a legal document and knowingly completing one inaccurately is punishable in law. There is absolutely no incentive for a doctor to think “this dude probably died of a stroke but he also had a sniffle so let’s just chuck COVID on the certificate”. In fact I have certified a couple of deaths since the pandemic started where I strongly suspected COVID but due to lack of evidence certified the more generic “Lower Respiratory Tract Infection” instead. In this way it’s perfectly possible COVID deaths have been under-reported. The COVID deaths I have certified were either lab confirmed cases or care home residents with textbook symptoms where fellow residents tested positive.
Edited by DeWar on Monday 6th July 08:17
Up to 35,000 additional cancer deaths in UK due to lockdown measures.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53300784
If we add in extra deaths from other causes and then factor in years of life left. Likely more years of life were lost due to lockdown measures than due to Covid-19 itself.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53300784
If we add in extra deaths from other causes and then factor in years of life left. Likely more years of life were lost due to lockdown measures than due to Covid-19 itself.
JagLover said:
Up to 35,000 additional cancer deaths in UK due to lockdown measures.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53300784
If we add in extra deaths from other causes and then factor in years of life left. Likely more years of life were lost due to lockdown measures than due to Covid-19 itself.
You post implies a lot more certainty than the article itself does. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53300784
If we add in extra deaths from other causes and then factor in years of life left. Likely more years of life were lost due to lockdown measures than due to Covid-19 itself.
BBC said:
In a worst case scenario, if delays continue, there could be 35,000 additional cancer deaths within a year.
We can all speculate but we’re only a few months into a pandemic which may linger for several times that duration. The truth is that the number of deaths attributable to the virus and those due to mitigation, as well as the economic costs, will probably not be truly known until at least a year or two down the line. JagLover said:
Up to 35,000 additional cancer deaths in UK due to lockdown measures.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53300784
If we add in extra deaths from other causes and then factor in years of life left. Likely more years of life were lost due to lockdown measures than due to Covid-19 itself.
Then you've got to think how many additional cancer deaths would happen had treatment continued and they got the virus with zero immune system during cancer treatment. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53300784
If we add in extra deaths from other causes and then factor in years of life left. Likely more years of life were lost due to lockdown measures than due to Covid-19 itself.
HoHoHo said:
To be honest, like many people I know we don’t even know anyone who’s definitely had COVID!
I know 2, a couple in their mid 30's.One has asthma and nearly died, Twice, and 3 months on is still not back to full health.
The other is fit and healthy, does a 5k jog daily and was knocked for 6 for 2 whole weeks.
Ransoman said:
I know 2, a couple in their mid 30's.
One has asthma and nearly died, Twice, and 3 months on is still not back to full health.
The other is fit and healthy, does a 5k jog daily and was knocked for 6 for 2 whole weeks.
The problem with such anecdotal stories is that most people who have had Coronavirus either haven't noticed it or had symptoms no worse than a cold. One has asthma and nearly died, Twice, and 3 months on is still not back to full health.
The other is fit and healthy, does a 5k jog daily and was knocked for 6 for 2 whole weeks.
Without mass testing from the start personal confirmed experience will be toward the more extreme end of the scale.
Where it has been confirmed due to blanket testing. This is a more typical outcome
navalnews said:
Nearly two thirds of the Charles de Gaulle’s crew -1,046 sailors out of 1,760 – were contaminated. As of last week, 20 sailors were still ill, including two hospitalized, one of them in intensive care.
A French Navy spokesman confirmed to AFP on May 4. 2020 that almost all the sailors of the Charles de Gaulle have been cured:
“There are only two sailors left in hospital, including a naval officer in intensive care and a second sailor under surveillance.18 other sailors are still in lockdown in Toulon, in a military compound.”
“98% of the positive cases of the aircraft carrier strike group are cured
https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2020/05/covid-19-aboard-french-aircraft-carrier-98-of-the-crew-now-cured/A French Navy spokesman confirmed to AFP on May 4. 2020 that almost all the sailors of the Charles de Gaulle have been cured:
“There are only two sailors left in hospital, including a naval officer in intensive care and a second sailor under surveillance.18 other sailors are still in lockdown in Toulon, in a military compound.”
“98% of the positive cases of the aircraft carrier strike group are cured
DeWar said:
mx5nut said:
I’m a doctor and, such is the incestuous nature of medicine, a large number of my friends are doctors and we talk to each other. Folk can believe what they want to believe, but I can tell you that at the height of the pandemic certain hospitals in London were a whisker away from having to start refusing admission to critical care to patients who had treatable illness. The notion is hardly outlandish since this is exactly what happened in Lombardy.
JagLover said:
Ransoman said:
I know 2, a couple in their mid 30's.
One has asthma and nearly died, Twice, and 3 months on is still not back to full health.
The other is fit and healthy, does a 5k jog daily and was knocked for 6 for 2 whole weeks.
The problem with such anecdotal stories is that most people who have had Coronavirus either haven't noticed it or had symptoms no worse than a cold. One has asthma and nearly died, Twice, and 3 months on is still not back to full health.
The other is fit and healthy, does a 5k jog daily and was knocked for 6 for 2 whole weeks.
Without mass testing from the start personal confirmed experience will be toward the more extreme end of the scale.
Where it has been confirmed due to blanket testing. This is a more typical outcome
The couple above are not Covid statistics. They were never tested and a test was never offered. Their GP's has told them that they have, with 100% certainty had it based on the symptoms and when they had it (the girl had been in contact with a person diagnosed with CV19 shortly before she came down with symptoms) so they do not factor in the UK stats.
One of my work colleagues also got it shortly after lockdown started. She was pretty rough for a few weeks too.
My sister in law works for an occupational health company which does CV19 screening. There were 82 confirmed cases from personnel medivacced from offshore last week and on those same days Sturgeon announced no new CV19 cases in Scotland so there is no doubt in my mind that CV19 infections and death numbers are being fudged to look lower.
HoHoHo said:
To be honest, like many people I know we don’t even know anyone who’s definitely had COVID!
My next door neighbours were pretty ill with it, though fortunately didn't need ICU. The wife still has a bad cough several months on. They picked it up on a long weekend trip to London prior to lockdown.Two people from work got it (during lock down, so not actually at workplace), one ended up in ICU but is making a good recovery, the other one didn't make it
Louis Balfour said:
ATG said:
Quite. It's a bit like saying I don't need chainsaw trousers because I've never cut my leg off while I've been wearing them.
That's one of my sayings.The old chainsaw trousers is getting a bit tedious...we need a new one really.
I suspect testing was/is very hit and miss. My wife works in a hospital and was very ill with all the symptoms for a week. Yet the test came back negative. All her colleges had similar symptoms and time off, out of 10, only 4 were tested positive. Make of that what you will. Of course it could have just been another bug going around.
Dr Doofenshmirtz said:
Louis Balfour said:
ATG said:
Quite. It's a bit like saying I don't need chainsaw trousers because I've never cut my leg off while I've been wearing them.
That's one of my sayings.The old chainsaw trousers is getting a bit tedious...we need a new one really.
Dr Doofenshmirtz said:
I suspect testing was/is very hit and miss. My wife works in a hospital and was very ill with all the symptoms for a week. Yet the test came back negative. All her colleges had similar symptoms and time off, out of 10, only 4 were tested positive. Make of that what you will. Of course it could have just been another bug going around.
Best estimate is that the PCR test has a sensitivity of about 70% i.e. it will pick up about 7 out of 10 genuine cases on one go. I have seen barn door cases which swabbed negative and my hospital colleagues say the same thing. I had one patient who was admitted to hospital (and eventually died of COVID) who had four swabs before he tested positive. The fact is it’s a virus with a particular affinity for lung tissue that by necessity is being sampled by swabbing mucous membranes in the nose and throat - false negatives are inevitable. Edited by DeWar on Monday 6th July 10:47
DeWar said:
Dr Doofenshmirtz said:
I suspect testing was/is very hit and miss. My wife works in a hospital and was very ill with all the symptoms for a week. Yet the test came back negative. All her colleges had similar symptoms and time off, out of 10, only 4 were tested positive. Make of that what you will. Of course it could have just been another bug going around.
Best estimate is that the PCR test has a sensitivity of about 70% i.e. it will pick up about 7 out of 10 genuine cases on one go. I have seen barn door cases which swabbed negative and my hospital colleagues say the same thing. I had one patient who was admitted to hospital (and eventually died of COVID) who had four swabs before he tested positive. The fact is it’s a virus with a particular affinity for lung tissue that by necessity is being sampled by swabbing mucous membranes in the nose and throat - false negatives are inevitable. HoHoHo said:
To be honest, like many people I know we don’t even know anyone who’s definitely had COVID!
Well a colleague of mine spent 11 days in hospital and many weeks recovering from it, far from mild symptoms. No underlying health conditions, looks after himself, etc.The real problem with Covid-19 is apart from the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions it is hard to predict who will become seriously ill with it, bit of a lottery I wouldn't want to play.
gottans said:
HoHoHo said:
To be honest, like many people I know we don’t even know anyone who’s definitely had COVID!
Well a colleague of mine spent 11 days in hospital and many weeks recovering from it, far from mild symptoms. No underlying health conditions, looks after himself, etc.The real problem with Covid-19 is apart from the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions it is hard to predict who will become seriously ill with it, bit of a lottery I wouldn't want to play.
ATG said:
Teddy Lop said:
ATG said:
Evidence to support the statement that virologists panic about viruses, please.
Isn't it just a fraction more likely that virologists have informed opinions about viruses?
As an electrician do you panic about electrocution? Do you panic about electrical fires?
yes, I do insofar as I anticipate the worst case scenarios. I advise and in some cases urge people on the benefits of going over and above the basic minimum requirements. For example, you don't want the failure-prone garden lighting on the same sensitive circuit breaker as your fridge freezer, but theres no reg to say you can't. I can tell you where extra money on good quality is worth the investment and where not to bother.Isn't it just a fraction more likely that virologists have informed opinions about viruses?
As an electrician do you panic about electrocution? Do you panic about electrical fires?
Like any person with a depth of knowledge in a specialised field and a pride in my work I don't want to deliver the absolute minimal. Many people, however, don't want to spend a penny more than they have to, so yes there are similarities between me and a virologist who wants more funding and gravitas.
I've seen and in many cases put right the work of those you might call far more optimistic than I. You're welcome to that approach...
gottans said:
HoHoHo said:
To be honest, like many people I know we don’t even know anyone who’s definitely had COVID!
Well a colleague of mine spent 11 days in hospital and many weeks recovering from it, far from mild symptoms. No underlying health conditions, looks after himself, etc.The real problem with Covid-19 is apart from the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions it is hard to predict who will become seriously ill with it, bit of a lottery I wouldn't want to play.
The number of people with no underlying conditions under 65 has been 400 and something. That approx the same number of deaths in car accidents in the same period (in normal times). Several hundred people a year die falling down the stairs.
It would seem you, and many millions of others, are illogically applying extra weight to the risk of the virus whilst happily ignoring all sorts of other risks you take daily.
Accept that if you are in a "vunerable" group that will skew things.
monkfish1 said:
gottans said:
HoHoHo said:
To be honest, like many people I know we don’t even know anyone who’s definitely had COVID!
Well a colleague of mine spent 11 days in hospital and many weeks recovering from it, far from mild symptoms. No underlying health conditions, looks after himself, etc.The real problem with Covid-19 is apart from the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions it is hard to predict who will become seriously ill with it, bit of a lottery I wouldn't want to play.
The number of people with no underlying conditions under 65 has been 400 and something. That approx the same number of deaths in car accidents in the same period (in normal times). Several hundred people a year die falling down the stairs.
It would seem you, and many millions of others, are illogically applying extra weight to the risk of the virus whilst happily ignoring all sorts of other risks you take daily.
Accept that if you are in a "vunerable" group that will skew things.
No doubt as cases continue to fall, people will become more comfortable with the risk, how best to protect themselves and others and maybe it will get the same lack of attention the risk driving a car gets. Trouble is we all judge risk differently as you recognise.
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