Has the world overreacted re Covid-19

[Alucidnation]

Not at all.

In fact, i think HMG did a good job considering nothing has ever happened like this before.

[Crippo]

If we didn’t know it was Covid and didn’t test for it, then the death rate would be a bit worse than normal. It wouldn’t make the news and we would all eventually get it and 99% of us would recover.
I think this is the problem when Facebook and google set Global policy. Stupid people get panicked about things and set off a chain reaction of events.....we are now where we are. We could have been somewhere else but we’re not. So the sooner the Public are somehow calmed down and the news shifts to how badly this will effect is in every other way the sooner life will get back to normal....because people will demand it....eventually.

[PositronicRay]

Crippo said:

I think this is the problem when Facebook and google set Global .

Do really believe that?

[vonuber]

Alucidnation said:

Not at all.

In fact, i think HMG did a good job considering nothing has ever happened like this before.

Spanish Influenza would like a word or two.

[Pit Pony]

vonuber said:

Alucidnation said:

Not at all.

In fact, i think HMG did a good job considering nothing has ever happened like this before.

Spanish Influenza would like a word or two.

My Grandads parents both died of that in 1918 leaving him and his 6 siblings as orphans. Only found out due to C19.

[Alucidnation]

vonuber said:

Alucidnation said:

Not at all.

In fact, i think HMG did a good job considering nothing has ever happened like this before.

Spanish Influenza would like a word or two.

I'm sure it would, but science has come a long way since then, plus, the impressive quick response to cv19 the world over has saved many, many lives.

[anonymous-user]

It wasnt the question, but I do think if the outbreak had originated, say in the UK, then we would have suffered a lot more than as it has from china (allegedly). Obviously, they have a different culture and practices in regard to, well lots of things, but we'll still buy things from china. If this was UK (or say France) the country would be ostracized. I know all that is not only hypothetical but difficult to ever prove in practice, but it's my opinion on it.

I think elements of what every country has done has been overreacted but that is hindsight and/or for the quest of saving lives. If this killed more younger people I think we would be in deep, deep st and more of the population would be seriously worried. Am I right in saying (for UK) that the number of deaths is fewer than 400 for under 45s? That's very low relatively speaking.

[Teddy Lop]

ATG said:

Evidence to support the statement that virologists panic about viruses, please.

Isn't it just a fraction more likely that virologists have informed opinions about viruses?

As an electrician do you panic about electrocution? Do you panic about electrical fires?

yes, I do insofar as I anticipate the worst case scenarios. I advise and in some cases urge people on the benefits of going over and above the basic minimum requirements. For example, you don't want the failure-prone garden lighting on the same sensitive circuit breaker as your fridge freezer, but theres no reg to say you can't. I can tell you where extra money on good quality is worth the investment and where not to bother.

Like any person with a depth of knowledge in a specialised field and a pride in my work I don't want to deliver the absolute minimal. Many people, however, don't want to spend a penny more than they have to, so yes there are similarities between me and a virologist who wants more funding and gravitas.

I've seen and in many cases put right the work of those you might call far more optimistic than I. You're welcome to that approach...

[JMGS4]

Alucidnation said:

the impressive quick response to cv19 the world over has saved many, many lives.

Quick response????
It was present at the Military world games in Wuhan in October last year... 3 french athletes returning had it, their blood tests proved it (although at the time they didn't look for CV19, they looked in April!!!), and was present in N Italy and Alsace in December....

THEN China suppressed all knowledge till Feb/March '20 with the able assistance of the WHO... and now deny having anything to do with it...

and then the west reacted mostly slowly... methinks Germany ( in central Europe) reacted fastest as soon as the infection rate in Italy became obvious....
GB and the NHS were very slow to act, and GMB were letting flights in from China (no testing, no quarantine, no nothing) when it was raging......
Canada slammed the door quickly and also banned all flights from infected areas, which others (like GB) refused to do!
A lot of mistakes by a lot of people and downright lies from the CCP from the very beginning.....
That virus should be called CH1Na.........

Sorry, to come back to the original question.... a lot of exageration by the press worldwide, over reaction in some cases, but mostly a measured reaction IMHO....

Edited by JMGS4 on Sunday 5th July 16:57

[philv]

The death toll is currently 535000.
It will be much higher as we are far from the end.

That is after an 'overreaction'.

A lesser response and the world would be in the millions already.

How can anyone call the response an overeaction?

We undereacted.

Those that say the world overreacted obviously don't realize it is far from over, have not had a loved one die from the virus, and had a crystal ball they didn't share with the world 4 months ago.

[S1KRR]

Yes.

But that is with the benefit of a ton of hindsight.

[Jasandjules]

LimSlip said:

Do you have some evidence that if the whole world just carried on as usual that millions wouldn't have died?

DO you have evidence they would?
Evidence, not a computer guess or "research" by a team that have gotten it wrong so many times before.

[Jasandjules]

MitchT said:

The thing that sticks in my mind is...

THIS is what sticks in my mind

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/high-consequence-infec...

"As of 19 March 2020, COVID-19 is no longer considered to be a high consequence infectious disease (HCID) in the UK"

[HoHoHo]

Jasandjules said:

MitchT said:

The thing that sticks in my mind is...

THIS is what sticks in my mind

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/high-consequence-infec...

"As of 19 March 2020, COVID-19 is no longer considered to be a high consequence infectious disease (HCID) in the UK"

Interesting.

After the month old marches and rioting shouldn’t we be seeing massive rises in infections by now if it’s as bad and virulent as some would like to believe?

And don’t forget VE Day when far too many gathered against the rules and that was weeks and weeks ago.

[rjg48]

Jasandjules said:

LimSlip said:

Do you have some evidence that if the whole world just carried on as usual that millions wouldn't have died?

DO you have evidence they would?
Evidence, not a computer guess or "research" by a team that have gotten it wrong so many times before.

Does he have any evidence that as many people wouldn't have died, if the Part Time PM hadn't been running the Country?

Millions dead?

500,000 so far. 40,000 in the UK.

[poo at Paul's]

rjg48 said:

Does he have any evidence that as many people wouldn't have died, if the Part Time PM hadn't been running the Country?

Millions dead?

500,000 so far. 40,000 in the UK.

It's between 6 and 3 months old where it ahs hit so far and has by no means gone away! 10million infections, 500k dead so far, that's some strike rate. It could easily kill 100k people in UK this year, directly, ONS figures reckon it is 55k here already, but only 44k deaths attributed to it. Get used to that figures sticking around the 45k "official" figures and the ONS figures steadily rising...

[JagLover]

Funk said:

This.

Why bother with experts if we're not going to listen to their informed opinion - especially those who are directly employed by governments for the purposes of informing the decisions governments make?

Well thankfully we know what that looks like - all we have to do is look at the US right now. We're seeing exactly what happens when the advice of informed and knowledgeable people is ignored.

Well talking about the "informed opinion" of experts.

Most epidemiologists have revealed themselves to be little more than cheap fairground fortune-tellers. Confidently saying they can predict the future with their back of the envelope models that are laughingly inadequate at modelling the real world.

[HoHoHo]

rjg48 said:

Jasandjules said:

LimSlip said:

Do you have some evidence that if the whole world just carried on as usual that millions wouldn't have died?

DO you have evidence they would?
Evidence, not a computer guess or "research" by a team that have gotten it wrong so many times before.

Does he have any evidence that as many people wouldn't have died, if the Part Time PM hadn't been running the Country?

Millions dead?

500,000 so far. 40,000 in the UK.

There is no way whatsoever that over 40,000 have died in the UK from the virus.

A family member works with the NHS and has said if you die and it even looks like you’ve got Covid a box is ticked and that’s your cause of death....with no testing after death so the figures are, frankly absolutely inaccurate.

IMO the number of deaths due entirely to the virus is tiny and probably no more than a couple of thousand at most and the real number of deaths with the help of Covid is thousands, but not 40,000.

[Condi]

philv said:

The death toll is currently 535000.

How can anyone call the response an overeaction?

We undereacted.

Not really. There are 7 billion people in the world. 10,000 a week die within the UK every week, year in, year out. The UK has had 1 month of excess deaths, many of whom would have only had months or very few years left anyway, and were only alive due to modern medicines ability to keep people alive without preserving quality of life. The cost of this has already run into the many billions of Pounds, with much of the fallout still to come in the form of job losses, diminished opportunities and economic hardship. That is before you look at the additional deaths due to delayed cancer scans, postponed preventative work, and public staying away from the NHS when they should have really gone.

I'm not saying we shouldn't have done anything, but what has happened will have far reaching repercussions long after Covid has claimed its final victim.

[JagLover]

philv said:

The death toll is currently 535000.
It will be much higher as we are far from the end.

That is after an 'overreaction'.

A lesser response and the world would be in the millions already.

How can anyone call the response an overeaction?

We undereacted.

Those that say the world overreacted obviously don't realize it is far from over, have not had a loved one die from the virus, and had a crystal ball they didn't share with the world 4 months ago.

You are linking the death toll with the lockdown measures as if the latter automatically prevents the former.

Many of the lockdown measures had little effect on the death toll. Closing the schools for example was completely unnecessary. Lockdown of young healthy adults only prevents deaths if they were going to otherwise infect the vulnerable. If they weren't going to all it does it stop the development of Herd Immunity.

Secondly 1/2 million deaths worldwide isn't particularly significant. World wide seasonal Flu (not the pandemics) kills up to 650,000 a year per the WHO.

If Covid-19 does indeed have an IFR of 0.26%, as the CDC claims, then that is only just outside the normal range for seasonal Flu at 0.1-0.2%.

Personally I doubt it is as low as 0.26% but the contrast to our reaction to seasonal Flu, which is very little, and our reaction to a slightly more dangerous virus, which is to inflict massive economic and social damage, is very marked.