CV19 - Cure worse than the disease? (Vol 5)
Discussion
Saweep said:
Not-The-Messiah said:
Saweep said:
I went for dinner last night in London at a relatively famous restaurant. Didn't wear a mask to walk in, like most other people. Track and trace thing wasn't offered, no collection of our details.
All very normal.
Sadly it was still half empty.
I assume the track and trace was sorted out when you booked, or did you just walk in off the street? All very normal.
Sadly it was still half empty.
There were 5 of us from 3 different households. They definitely don't have my details. And made 0 effort to get them.
That's all I know.
Graveworm said:
Darth Paul said:
Graveworm said:
Elysium said:
It is the Govt who are dishonest. These rules, which destroy lives, livelihoods and freedoms are dishonest.
The honest, true, right and moral thing to do is resist them. To do what is best for us and our loved ones.
Johnson, Hancock, Whitty and Vallance have lied to us repeatedly. They have acted as if they are all powerful kings. As if democracy was nothing.
I do not believe the various Coronavirus Regulations have been lawfully created and I am happy, willing and proud to break them.
Great be proud to break them, lying in order to get away with doing it is dishonest. The honest, true, right and moral thing to do is resist them. To do what is best for us and our loved ones.
Johnson, Hancock, Whitty and Vallance have lied to us repeatedly. They have acted as if they are all powerful kings. As if democracy was nothing.
I do not believe the various Coronavirus Regulations have been lawfully created and I am happy, willing and proud to break them.
"He lied first so I can lie" Cheapens your argument to the playground level.
Rosa Parks saying "I'm sorry I didn't realise that I was supposed to give up my seat" Would not have had the same impact.
king day! 
It's due another change in London from Saturday. 
They are telling us what they are going to do in advance to avoid civil unrest.OddCat said:
ORD said:
OddCat said:
Stuff about GDP
Do some research. You have missed that economic activity generates wealth. It is a fairly basic point.Joe public is relatively worse off in real terms that he was 20 years ago. But a lot of people are better off now, and saving large amounts, with there being less economic activity. Go figure. Really, go figure.
Gecko1978 said:
TheDrBrian said:
isaldiri said:
Graveworm said:
What was the last virus that came along that we ignored, that with all the measures we put in place killed 50,000 people in the UK
Flu. 45000+ excess winter deaths in 2014/15 and again in 2017/18.No one seemed to give a damn at hundreds dying per week.
Tbh, those are ons numbers and we know how good they are! My own simpleton maths from the data I’ve got probably puts it about 25-30k. 2015 is an interesting one though. There were in the region of 30k excess deaths compared to 2014. 1st jan to 31st dec. I said at the start of all this, I’d be surprised if it doesn’t all balance out by mid next year. Again my maths shows that the average amount of people who die in a year compared to population is 0.89%. As of end of August we are about 0.68%. I’d predict about 0.95% of the pop have died by end of the year. Worse than previous years, no doubt. Excessive? That’s for you to decide. For reference 2015 & 2018, the bad years were about 0.91%
Gecko1978 said:
Gym fined £1000 for staying open claiming it was for benefit of members mental and physical health.
Raised £31k in go fund me donations. Being healthy helps you fight covid. Its crazy we are not using this as an opportunity to get Britain healthy an not just back to working in factories and going to gregs and then getting sick.
Sky News: https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-merseyside-...
I suspect Plod were a bit thin on the ground here though........Raised £31k in go fund me donations. Being healthy helps you fight covid. Its crazy we are not using this as an opportunity to get Britain healthy an not just back to working in factories and going to gregs and then getting sick.
Sky News: https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-merseyside-...
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8809427/H...
gareth_r said:
Elysium said:
In the summer, I argued that SARS-CoV-2 seemed to be just about 'done' in the UK. Michael Levitt also made a prediction that the USA would 'saturate' in August and that excess deaths would return to normal.
It might be controversial to say this, but I am not sure that anything we are seeing now disproves that.
We are not currently experiencing statistically significant levels of excess death, despite the very obvious impacts of lockdown and the slowdown in NHS treatment, which we know is damaging the health of millions of people:
https://fingertips.phe.org.uk/static-reports/morta...
Using cases as a metric is flawed. We are recording people as cases when they have a positive PCR test, but no symptoms. It does not appear that a consistent PCR cycle threshold is being used or that we have routine retesting to rule out false positives.
Hospitalisations and deaths are both affected by the PCR test issues, because anyone who dies within 28 days of a positive test is automatically a COVID death and anyone testing positive 14 days before going into hospital or whilst in hospital is a COVID admission. These definitions will ensure that COVID is never understated as a threat.
Our recent 'second wave', which I think is no more than a ripple began with more cases after August bank holiday weekend. We know from experience that this is typical for any respiratory virus, that a four fold increase is common and that an eight to ten fold increase is likely in an epidemic year.
We do see a rise in associated deaths 2 weeks later, which reinforces the timescales previously assumed - 5 days from infections to symptoms and 2 weeks from symptoms to death for the unlucky few.
If we use 15th Sept as a baseline then the total number of people who have died in this second wave is 1,309. We had 1,073 deaths in a single day at the 8th April peak.
SAGE are arguing that the increase in incidence we are seeing now could suddenly, exponentially surge. I think that is unlikely, but only time will tell. In the meantime, the events of the last month are a small blip in the context of this epidemic.
In the meantime, we know that the excess deaths that are occuring are happening in the home and that, at this moment in time, COVID is not a particularly significant cause of death in the UK:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunit...
Do we know how admissions for respiratory infections in general compare with previous years?It might be controversial to say this, but I am not sure that anything we are seeing now disproves that.
We are not currently experiencing statistically significant levels of excess death, despite the very obvious impacts of lockdown and the slowdown in NHS treatment, which we know is damaging the health of millions of people:
https://fingertips.phe.org.uk/static-reports/morta...
Using cases as a metric is flawed. We are recording people as cases when they have a positive PCR test, but no symptoms. It does not appear that a consistent PCR cycle threshold is being used or that we have routine retesting to rule out false positives.
Hospitalisations and deaths are both affected by the PCR test issues, because anyone who dies within 28 days of a positive test is automatically a COVID death and anyone testing positive 14 days before going into hospital or whilst in hospital is a COVID admission. These definitions will ensure that COVID is never understated as a threat.
Our recent 'second wave', which I think is no more than a ripple began with more cases after August bank holiday weekend. We know from experience that this is typical for any respiratory virus, that a four fold increase is common and that an eight to ten fold increase is likely in an epidemic year.
We do see a rise in associated deaths 2 weeks later, which reinforces the timescales previously assumed - 5 days from infections to symptoms and 2 weeks from symptoms to death for the unlucky few.
If we use 15th Sept as a baseline then the total number of people who have died in this second wave is 1,309. We had 1,073 deaths in a single day at the 8th April peak.
SAGE are arguing that the increase in incidence we are seeing now could suddenly, exponentially surge. I think that is unlikely, but only time will tell. In the meantime, the events of the last month are a small blip in the context of this epidemic.
In the meantime, we know that the excess deaths that are occuring are happening in the home and that, at this moment in time, COVID is not a particularly significant cause of death in the UK:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunit...
https://twitter.com/ClareCraigPath/status/13159661...
Not-The-Messiah said:
OddCat said:
ORD said:
OddCat said:
Stuff about GDP
Do some research. You have missed that economic activity generates wealth. It is a fairly basic point.Joe public is relatively worse off in real terms that he was 20 years ago. But a lot of people are better off now, and saving large amounts, with there being less economic activity. Go figure. Really, go figure.
QE aside - the issue was one of GDP essentially being mostly churning the same old money round and round the UK. National wealth can really only be increased if we obtain net positive money from outside (ie a positive balance of payments). Otherwise we are just handing round the same money. It is a net neutral game (HMRC take ignored) where for every guy who gets a £1 someone else is down a £1. Some people are in much better financial fettle because of the Covid crisis (ie saving the money rather than pi$$ing it all up the wall). Others are up $hit creek because they don't have income any more.
I mused a hypothetical situation where everyone spent what they would have done regardless of not getting a service. Example: I go and give my local take away £20 even though I'm not having a take away type thing. So we all 'spend' the same amount we previously did. Therefore no businesses go bust because their income continues as it was / would have been. But instead the billions that aren't being spent are being saved.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8842707/L...
Liverpool's biggest NHS trust claims its intensive care units are only 80% full and quieter than usual - despite councillor's claims they are 95% occupied amid Covid-19 spike
Councillor Paul Brant sparked fears yesterday after claiming the city's critical-care units were already 95 per cent full and 'filling up very fast' amid a spike in Covid-19 cases.
But Liverpool University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, which runs three hospitals across the city, dismissed the claim, insisting that its units were only 80 per cent full yesterday morning with just 47 of 61 critical-care beds occupied.
This means they are quieter than normal for this time of year, MailOnline revealed yesterday. The trust's intensive care unit is normally 85 per cent full in October.
Liverpool's biggest NHS trust claims its intensive care units are only 80% full and quieter than usual - despite councillor's claims they are 95% occupied amid Covid-19 spike
Councillor Paul Brant sparked fears yesterday after claiming the city's critical-care units were already 95 per cent full and 'filling up very fast' amid a spike in Covid-19 cases.
But Liverpool University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, which runs three hospitals across the city, dismissed the claim, insisting that its units were only 80 per cent full yesterday morning with just 47 of 61 critical-care beds occupied.
This means they are quieter than normal for this time of year, MailOnline revealed yesterday. The trust's intensive care unit is normally 85 per cent full in October.
Watching everything slide backwards is pretty depressing.
Between the seasonal effect of the weather changing and nights drawing in, the increasingly random and short notice restrictions, the end of furlough and the pressure a lot of families face to put on a good show at Christmas (perhaps without some of their family with them) - I expect the mental health for a great many individuals is about to nose dive.
Between the seasonal effect of the weather changing and nights drawing in, the increasingly random and short notice restrictions, the end of furlough and the pressure a lot of families face to put on a good show at Christmas (perhaps without some of their family with them) - I expect the mental health for a great many individuals is about to nose dive.
OddCat said:
I mused a hypothetical situation where everyone spent what they would have done regardless of not getting a service. Example: I go and give my local take away £20 even though I'm not having a take away type thing. So we all 'spend' the same amount we previously did. Therefore no businesses go bust because their income continues as it was / would have been. But instead the billions that aren't being spent are being saved.
Nice thought, good luck getting those few individuals who have made fortunes due to the pandemic handing it all out to the many losers,Gecko1978 said:
Also fairly sure in worst year flu deaths were 25k. So not as bad as the Covid Death plague
That assumes more than 25k of the 'Covid deaths' represent deaths where folks genuinely died of Covid-19, not 28 days after a dubious test, not where their death certificate was rubber stamped CV-19 for convenience, etc.gregs656 said:
Watching everything slide backwards is pretty depressing.
Between the seasonal effect of the weather changing and nights drawing in, the increasingly random and short notice restrictions, the end of furlough and the pressure a lot of families face to put on a good show at Christmas (perhaps without some of their family with them) - I expect the mental health for a great many individuals is about to nose dive.
It's a kind of insidious torture the government are deliberately inflicting on the population, yet they beg for more like one of those women that always goes back to her abuser.Between the seasonal effect of the weather changing and nights drawing in, the increasingly random and short notice restrictions, the end of furlough and the pressure a lot of families face to put on a good show at Christmas (perhaps without some of their family with them) - I expect the mental health for a great many individuals is about to nose dive.
Wait till its dark at 4pm and theres nothing to do on a weekend except sit in your house and watch TV, day in day out as everything else will have been either banned or made untenable
1974nc said:
It's a kind of insidious torture the government are deliberately inflicting on the population, yet they beg for more like one of those women that always goes back to her abuser.
Wait till its dark at 4pm and theres nothing to do on a weekend except sit in your house and watch TV, day in day out as everything else will have been either banned or made untenable
Worryingly for those of us who enjoy getting out and about i feat that a big proportion of the UK populace would see that as heaven.Wait till its dark at 4pm and theres nothing to do on a weekend except sit in your house and watch TV, day in day out as everything else will have been either banned or made untenable
PJ's all day.
Netflix / Disney + all day.
Order a take away for dinner.
Watch some awful X factor / Britain's got no talent on TV in the evening.
Go to bed.
Wake up - Repeat.
For some, this is ideal. No work, no stress. No thinking.
1974nc said:
gregs656 said:
Watching everything slide backwards is pretty depressing.
Between the seasonal effect of the weather changing and nights drawing in, the increasingly random and short notice restrictions, the end of furlough and the pressure a lot of families face to put on a good show at Christmas (perhaps without some of their family with them) - I expect the mental health for a great many individuals is about to nose dive.
It's a kind of insidious torture the government are deliberately inflicting on the population, yet they beg for more like one of those women that always goes back to her abuser.Between the seasonal effect of the weather changing and nights drawing in, the increasingly random and short notice restrictions, the end of furlough and the pressure a lot of families face to put on a good show at Christmas (perhaps without some of their family with them) - I expect the mental health for a great many individuals is about to nose dive.
Wait till its dark at 4pm and theres nothing to do on a weekend except sit in your house and watch TV, day in day out as everything else will have been either banned or made untenable
snowen250 said:
Worryingly for those of us who enjoy getting out and about i feat that a big proportion of the UK populace would see that as heaven.
PJ's all day.
Netflix / Disney + all day.
Order a take away for dinner.
Watch some awful X factor / Britain's got no talent on TV in the evening.
Go to bed.
Wake up - Repeat.
For some, this is ideal. No work, no stress. No thinking.
A recipe for alcoholism, obesity, depression and suicide. Otherwise, cracking.PJ's all day.
Netflix / Disney + all day.
Order a take away for dinner.
Watch some awful X factor / Britain's got no talent on TV in the evening.
Go to bed.
Wake up - Repeat.
For some, this is ideal. No work, no stress. No thinking.
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