CV19 - Cure worse than the disease? (Vol 5)

[Elysium]

Graveworm said:

Elysium said:

Which she refused to give up to a white man. A situation that would have not been remotely remarkable if she was white.

Your analogy remains terrible.

The lie I proposed would however have applied to a black person.

But anyway you are doing far more than she, in lying to a restaurant owner to resist an unjust law which no one will ever know your are resisting.

In doing so you are minimising any impact of your rebellion, if you are right and it's pointless; whilst maximising any damage, if you are wrong and it matters. A law so objectively unjust that it's mirrored in most of the civilised world, voted on and passed by an elected parliament, supported by the majority of the public, the medical & scientific communities and subject to judicial review.
I think you mean a law you don't agree with.

I will know I am resisting as will the friend or family member I am meeting. We will both enjoy the benefit of acting as free people without suffering this insane totalitarian oppression that is masquerading as law.

The restaurant owner will also benefit from our custom.

I normal times I would probably agree with the rest of your post, but these are not normal times. The ordinary rule of law, parliamentary scrutiny and the role of the judiciary have all failed us. The Govt are imposing levels of restriction based on emergency procedures that have never been considered let alone tolerated in our country before as a matter of ministerial whim, with no consideration or coherent opposition.

You bring the medical and scientific community into it entirely wrongly. We know that there are a wide range of scientific and medical opinions on this situation. We also know that the group advising the Govt have admitted there is next to no evidence for the actions we are taking and next to no understanding of the harms it will cause.

You also appeal to the majority by referencing public opinion, which is of course a ridiculous flawed argument based on a logical fallacy.

Your objective seems to be to pass this all off as normal and to argue that no resistance is justified because 'it is the law'. I imagine you would be one of the first to deliver a potentially lethal electric shock in Milgrams experiment and would probably queue up to join the secret police or dob in your neighbour for some tiny infringement of 'the rules' given half a chance.

I don't agree with these laws because they are evil and immoral. I understand the difference between right and wrong and what we are doing here is very very wrong.

I am confident that history will be firmly on my side in time.

[Boringvolvodriver]

Elysium said:

OK -

4. Finally, this shows cases per 100k tests vs hospital admissions (5 day lag) vs deaths (10 day lag). These are still tracking closely, so the new cases are resulting in deaths, but an an IFR which is likely to be below 0.49%:
.

Elysium, is the IFR based on cases as reported or on hospital admissions? I think we all know that a case that is being reported is really an infection. The way the data is reported is very poor and I suspect deliberately so to confuse.

[Misanthrope]

Ntv said:

Indeed. Remember the borrowed money is just that, borrowed from someone else. Someone else’s wealth. And has to be repaid.

The worst thing is, it's purely borrowing for consumption - none of it is going for any kind of investment. It's like a skag head borrowing money from a loan shark to fund his habit. He's already dead; he just doesn't realise it yet.

[Graveworm]

Elysium said:

You bring the medical and scientific community into it entirely wrongly. We know that there are a wide range of scientific and medical opinions on this situation. We also know that the group advising the Govt have admitted there is next to no evidence for the actions we are taking and next to no understanding of the harms it will cause.

I am confident that history will be firmly on my side in time.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000nghf/newsnight-13102020 19 minutes in:

[amgmcqueen]

pocty said:

I can't see a working vaccine being released before 2023.

Johnson & Johnson has paused its Covid-19 vaccine trial due to an “unexplained illness” in a participant, the company confirmed.

The pharmaceutical giant was unclear if the patient was administered a placebo or the experimental vaccine, and it’s not remarkable for studies as large as the one Johnson & Johnson are conducting – involving 60,000 patients – to be temporarily paused.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/12/john...

Pocty

99.04% of us already have a vaccine.

[Elysium]

Boringvolvodriver said:

Elysium said:

OK -

4. Finally, this shows cases per 100k tests vs hospital admissions (5 day lag) vs deaths (10 day lag). These are still tracking closely, so the new cases are resulting in deaths, but an an IFR which is likely to be below 0.49%:
.

Elysium, is the IFR based on cases as reported or on hospital admissions? I think we all know that a case that is being reported is really an infection. The way the data is reported is very poor and I suspect deliberately so to confuse.

This is my attempt to infer predicted infections from deaths (with a 10 day lag) if the IFR was 0.49%

[i4got]

pocty said:

I can't see a working vaccine being released before 2023.

Johnson & Johnson has paused its Covid-19 vaccine trial due to an “unexplained illness” in a participant, the company confirmed.

The pharmaceutical giant was unclear if the patient was administered a placebo or the experimental vaccine, and it’s not remarkable for studies as large as the one Johnson & Johnson are conducting – involving 60,000 patients – to be temporarily paused.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/12/john...

Pocty

Someone who should know disagrees with you.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/health-54542571

[king arthur]

Elysium said:

What worries me is that the Govt are likely to claim the restrictions caused the slowdown and a lot of stupid people are likely to believe them.

This is the trouble isn't it.

"See - it's working so we need to keep doing it, until sometime next June...."

[Elysium]

Graveworm said:

Elysium said:

You bring the medical and scientific community into it entirely wrongly. We know that there are a wide range of scientific and medical opinions on this situation. We also know that the group advising the Govt have admitted there is next to no evidence for the actions we are taking and next to no understanding of the harms it will cause.

I am confident that history will be firmly on my side in time.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000nghf/newsnight-13102020 19 minutes in:

I assume you are posting this because you agree with me that scientists and medics are divided about the evidence and way forward?

The SAGE papers recommending the circuit breaker and other measures say that the evidence is weak, so it seems that Walport disagrees with his colleagues there as well.

[Graveworm]

Elysium said:

I assume you are posting this because you agree with me that scientists and medics are divided about the evidence and way forward?

The SAGE papers recommending the circuit breaker and other measures say that the evidence is weak, so it seems that Walport disagrees with his colleagues there as well.

You know what weak evidence means in a scientific context, it certainly doesn't mean "Next to no", but score your cheap points.
Divided suggests that there is some kind of parity or equal numbers on either side. As was pointed clearly out it is the consensus and the majority view.

[ORD]

Not even close. There have been 5 studies into the effectiveness of lockdowns. Not one concludes they save lives.

[pocty]

amgmcqueen said:

pocty said:

I can't see a working vaccine being released before 2023.

Johnson & Johnson has paused its Covid-19 vaccine trial due to an “unexplained illness” in a participant, the company confirmed.

The pharmaceutical giant was unclear if the patient was administered a placebo or the experimental vaccine, and it’s not remarkable for studies as large as the one Johnson & Johnson are conducting – involving 60,000 patients – to be temporarily paused.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/12/john...

Pocty

99.04% of us already have a vaccine.

Pocty

[Elysium]

Graveworm said:

Elysium said:

I assume you are posting this because you agree with me that scientists and medics are divided about the evidence and way forward?

The SAGE papers recommending the circuit breaker and other measures say that the evidence is weak, so it seems that Walport disagrees with his colleagues there as well.

You know what weak evidence means in a scientific context, it certainly doesn't mean "Next to no", but score your cheap points.
Divided suggests that there is some kind of parity or equal numbers on either side. As was pointed clearly out it is the consensus and the majority view.

I see. So you actually posted a link that directly contradicted your argument. A link in which a member of SAGE disagreed with both the stated SAGE papers and an eminent Prof from Oxford University.

And your argument is the logical fallacy that the majority view must be right.

Not very compelling is it?

[anonymous-user]

ORD said:

Not even close. There have been 5 studies into the effectiveness of lockdowns. Not one concludes they save lives.

When you look at the UK deaths rate from March, i have to admit the lockdown seemed to reduce deaths.

[IamJacksContempt]

Elysium said:

I don't agree with these laws because they are evil and immoral. I understand the difference between right and wrong and what we are doing here is very very wrong.

I am confident that history will be firmly on my side in time.

“Evil” and “immoral”? The only people on your side will be a couple of the other fruit loops that you share a tin foil umbrella with.

If you were “fighting” something that was implemented to be intentionally harmful and was opposed by the majority (as opposed to the few with delusions of grandeur as it currently stands) then maybe, just maybe you’d have a point.

[gareth_r]

bodhi said:

gareth_r said:

Do we know how admissions for respiratory infections in general compare with previous years?

Data for up to the 4th below - looks pretty much around average.

https://twitter.com/ClareCraigPath/status/13159661...

Thanks.

It's not clear whether that includes COVID-19 or not.

EDIT:
The graph posted on Twitter cane from the Emergency Department Syndromic Surveillance System: England Weekly Bulletin for 04/10/2020.
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/emergen...



I found this when I was looking for the stats >>>> https://questions-statements.parliament.uk/written...

If my maths is correct, the data in the spreadsheet show that the average number of unplanned daily admissions for respiratory infection, via A&E (so serious enough to result in a trip to A&E and a spell in hospital, not "tested positive but didn't even have a sore throat"), in October, for 2010-2011 to 2016-2017 was 682. November - 747. December - 928. January - 821.

Edited by gareth_r on Thursday 15th October 19:12

[Graveworm]

ORD said:

Not even close. There have been 5 studies into the effectiveness of lockdowns. Not one concludes they save lives.

We are not locked down.
But in any event.
After 30 seconds another 5 ..
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_i...
https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S2589...
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2405-7
https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m2743
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC72938...

Edited by Graveworm on Thursday 15th October 18:57

[pocty]

i4got said:

pocty said:

I can't see a working vaccine being released before 2023.

Johnson & Johnson has paused its Covid-19 vaccine trial due to an “unexplained illness” in a participant, the company confirmed.

The pharmaceutical giant was unclear if the patient was administered a placebo or the experimental vaccine, and it’s not remarkable for studies as large as the one Johnson & Johnson are conducting – involving 60,000 patients – to be temporarily paused.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/12/john...

Pocty

Someone who should know disagrees with you.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/health-54542571

1. I said workable.

2. Are these the same people who said that we would have a vaccine by Summer and then September and then January and now (feel free to fill in the blank space ( ).

3. I suggest you read this while your waiting for the vaccine
https://drmalcolmkendrick.org/2020/10/10/a-sars-co...

Pocty

[Graveworm]

Elysium said:

I see. So you actually posted a link that directly contradicted your argument. A link in which a member of SAGE disagreed with both the stated SAGE papers and an eminent Prof from Oxford University.

And your argument is the logical fallacy that the majority view must be right.

Not very compelling is it?

He didn't disagree with the papers, he disagreed with what you would like them to say. There will almost certainly never be strong evidence for most of this as randomised controlled studies are pretty much impossible. He disagreed with Professor Heneghan as does most of the scientific and medical community. Including another professor from his own university who literally wrote the text book on evidence based medicine, who is advocating practice based medicine for this pandemic.

Edited by Graveworm on Thursday 15th October 18:48

[croyde]

Howard- said:

I've been out for a few pub meals. Apart from having to wear a mask as you walk from the door to your table, which is hardly the end of the world, and the tables being a bit further apart, it's the same as it always was?

Well just took my boy, who is 18 today, to the pub so that he could buy me a pint.

Just two barmaids milling about and a short queue to get in. Seemed to take a while to get people processed and led to allocated tables, with masks on.

Asked to download the Young's app and the NHS app.

I said I didn't have a phone so was able to just have my name and number taken and put into a computer.

It was a sad and souless experience, plus the shocking price of a double vodka and a pint has put me off ever trying it again.