CV19 - Cure worse than the disease? (Vol 5)
Discussion
RonaldMcDonaldAteMyCat said:
The real insanity is the confirmation bias loop the lockdowns promote.
The ONS confirmed that there is no second wave, as posted on here as well excess deaths are low. So yes preemptive stuff would stop deaths, but the whole thing now feels like project fear to sell a message, whatever the actual data is. The doubling graph, the new ter system(is that 2 or 4 stupid systems now).it isn't about lives now it is purely political.
The Spruce Goose said:
RonaldMcDonaldAteMyCat said:
The real insanity is the confirmation bias loop the lockdowns promote.
The ONS confirmed that there is no second wave, as posted on here as well excess deaths are low. So yes preemptive stuff would stop deaths, but the whole thing now feels like project fear to sell a message, whatever the actual data is. The doubling graph, the new ter system(is that 2 or 4 stupid systems now).it isn't about lives now it is purely political.
Elysium said:
For perspective, this shows 2020 vs max, min and average deaths for the previous 5 years. When we talk about excess deaths we are comparing with the 5 year average.
What is immediately clear is that this years deaths have been within the normal range since wk 24 (ends June 14th) and wk 41 (ends 11th Oct):
The first part of the 'second wave' is entirely unremarkable.
That's the graph I keep showing to people when I tell them my position is "it was a big deal but now it's not", but unfortunately people keep lumping me into both the "it's all a hoax!" and "Lockdown forever, one death is too many!" groups.What is immediately clear is that this years deaths have been within the normal range since wk 24 (ends June 14th) and wk 41 (ends 11th Oct):
The first part of the 'second wave' is entirely unremarkable.
We really should be a state of "here's some advice on how to keep safer, follow it if you are in an at-risk category. The deaths are about where we expect a virus to be at this stage".
Earthdweller said:
We have as a society become completely detached from the concept of death
As our society has evolved we have become more insular and less aware of what is happening around us
We routinely pack the old folk off to homes where they are invisible and their passing is not noticeable or noted
The feeling is that life is guaranteed to be long and death will come in sleep at a great age after a life well lived and in good health is the expectation
Unfortunately it is not like that, and never has been
Having spent over 30 years on the frontline in the emergency services I have seen far far too much random senseless traumatic unexpected death
It can come to any of us at any time, sometimes in the most horrific and traumatic manner
I struggle with the idea that life is sacrosanct and every life must be saved .. at whatever cost
I’ve been in the position where I’ve had to make a conscious decision, when faced with a choice, of which life to save at the scene of a RTA
It’s not pleasant but it’s sometimes necessary .. it still haunts me
My life experience makes me feel that we are messing with the natural way of things
There has to be a balance, I don’t think there is at the moment
100% but what's worse is to use your RTA experience, in order to save one of those unfortunate people in that accident you flag down a car and start trying to kill the driver to save your RTA victim. As our society has evolved we have become more insular and less aware of what is happening around us
We routinely pack the old folk off to homes where they are invisible and their passing is not noticeable or noted
The feeling is that life is guaranteed to be long and death will come in sleep at a great age after a life well lived and in good health is the expectation
Unfortunately it is not like that, and never has been
Having spent over 30 years on the frontline in the emergency services I have seen far far too much random senseless traumatic unexpected death
It can come to any of us at any time, sometimes in the most horrific and traumatic manner
I struggle with the idea that life is sacrosanct and every life must be saved .. at whatever cost
I’ve been in the position where I’ve had to make a conscious decision, when faced with a choice, of which life to save at the scene of a RTA
It’s not pleasant but it’s sometimes necessary .. it still haunts me
My life experience makes me feel that we are messing with the natural way of things
There has to be a balance, I don’t think there is at the moment
Clearly we should do whatever we can to ensure nobody needlessly dies from any cause but we surely at a moral level can't start inflicting death and pain and suffering on people who would otherwise be "fine" to resolve an emergent crisis.
johnboy1975 said:
ORD said:
Elysium said:
For perspective, this shows 2020 vs max, min and average deaths for the previous 5 years. When we talk about excess deaths we are comparing with the 5 year average.
What is immediately clear is that this years deaths have been within the normal range since wk 24 (ends June 14th) and wk 41 (ends 11th Oct):
The first part of the 'second wave' is entirely unremarkable.
One would expect fewer deaths than normal, however, given how many died early this year. There’s no doubt this is a bad year. What is immediately clear is that this years deaths have been within the normal range since wk 24 (ends June 14th) and wk 41 (ends 11th Oct):
The first part of the 'second wave' is entirely unremarkable.
But I agree that it’s not out of proportion with any other bad year. The response is absurdly OTT.
I posted earlier, this year is the 8th worse for excess deaths in the last 27 years. EIGHTH. But im struggling to find a concise link to back that up
This year we are at 473,702 a difference of 20,822 or 4.6%
This is, in my opinion, reassuringly low given the 53k deaths recorded involving COVID and all of the deaths that have occured due to reductions in numbers seeking help or being treated by the NHS.
2020 is a bad year, but we need to maintain a sense of proportion, given that it is currently only 4.6% worse than a year we saw as statistically unremarkable, given the hysteria around this global pandemic.
JagLover said:
If Coronavirus carries you off when you reach that point then it is a natural end to a life hopefully well lived, not something to be feared or avoided.
All very true but that's a rather big 'if' there isn't it? If covid was simply bopping off oldies that were going to die soon as is often said here, we should have been seeing far lower excess deaths over summer into now. We haven't and given 50+k excess deaths happened over March to June, that 'if' doesn't seem quite so plausible looking at what has happened subsequently.
smashing said:
Social media awash with "the second wave is here, lockdown required ASAP"...doesn't matter what the ONS say...it wouldn't matter if they came out and said infections were 0 this week and that they had got the past 9 months wrong, it simply wouldn't matter there will always be a "what about.." or "but in two weeks we shall see..."...it needs some serious spine from our government to put this to bed but as above, it's far far far too lucrative right now to do so.
It is just a messed up situation. It is really a pandemic of misinformation, the media playing there part, might be a few odd counter stories, but they all are towing the line. Even the BBC.I listened to Radio 1 and the amount of misleading and incorrect information spouted was unreal. I think people don't really care, but everyday, people lives are being flushed down the bog, with zero help.
isaldiri said:
JagLover said:
If Coronavirus carries you off when you reach that point then it is a natural end to a life hopefully well lived, not something to be feared or avoided.
All very true but that's a rather big 'if' there isn't it? If covid was simply bopping off oldies that were going to die soon as is often said here, we should have been seeing far lower excess deaths over summer into now. We haven't and given 50+k excess deaths happened over March to June, that 'if' doesn't seem quite so plausible looking at what has happened subsequently.
Over a longer time frame, say two to three years, I think deaths will be as normal with the only "excess" due to people who died due to lockdown restrictions.
JagLover said:
"Soon" is a relative term and excess deaths have also been increased by the restriction on medical care to the general population. Look at the increase in those dying in their own homes for example.
Well the extra numbers dying at home are not matched by extra excess deaths so perhaps they would have died 'soon' anyway.....? Elysium said:
In the worst of the last 5 years we saw 452,880 deaths by the end of wk 41
This year we are at 473,702 a difference of 20,822 or 4.6%
<snipped for brevity>
That's interesting; and weren't UK flu deaths in 18/19 and 19/20 very low? Which might explain a lot of the deaths in March and April of this year - people who normally would have died from flu in earlier years, but didn't, and were highly vulnerable to covid. This year we are at 473,702 a difference of 20,822 or 4.6%
<snipped for brevity>
Australia
https://twitter.com/9NewsAUS/status/13186325327164...
Front page of yesterdays Metro
https://twitter.com/MetroUKNews/status/13182847862...
https://twitter.com/9NewsAUS/status/13186325327164...
Front page of yesterdays Metro
https://twitter.com/MetroUKNews/status/13182847862...
Sam.M said:
Disgusting, if AUS is anything like the UK they have 1 maybe 2 infant deaths from covid, probably like us in premature babies, so this one single action of stupidity has cost more lives than it's saved in that age bracket.teapea said:
I am really starting to feel the cure is worse than the disease.
This is going to go on a few years and if we keep spending like we currently what will happen.
The problem is, not just our gov, is that they have all based a strategy around a vaccine, with lockdowns etc. They won't change this now even if the vaccine never comes to fruition. This is going to go on a few years and if we keep spending like we currently what will happen.
MDMetal said:
Sam.M said:
Disgusting, if AUS is anything like the UK they have 1 maybe 2 infant deaths from covid, probably like us in premature babies, so this one single action of stupidity has cost more lives than it's saved in that age bracket.MDMetal said:
Clearly we should do whatever we can to ensure nobody needlessly dies from any cause but we surely at a moral level can't start inflicting death and pain and suffering on people who would otherwise be "fine" to resolve an emergent crisis.
This is the crux of the issue to me. Transferring the pain, suffering and death onto a different group of people to the group it's directly affecting is completely unacceptable.king arthur said:
I wonder what the real facts are there, surely the travel restrictions would make exemptions for medical emergencies?
I did wonder this too, I'd like to think there were other extenuating circumstances. It would seem that it was normative for babies to be flown out of Adelaide for heart surgery when needed, so what happened?teapea said:
I am really starting to feel the cure is worse than the disease.
This is going to go on a few years and if we keep spending like we currently what will happen.
It won't go on for a few years because people won't accept that. Already the government has u-turned on gym closures in Liverpool. Eventually when enough people realise that all the things that make life worth living are under threat their opinions will change and the government will lose what little control it had.This is going to go on a few years and if we keep spending like we currently what will happen.
Brave Fart said:
That's interesting; and weren't UK flu deaths in 18/19 and 19/20 very low? Which might explain a lot of the deaths in March and April of this year - people who normally would have died from flu in earlier years, but didn't, and were highly vulnerable to covid.
2018/19 relatively low yes but not very low. Not obviously 2019/2020 (pre march covid).If everyone wore masks and practised a bit of social distancing and good hygiene, then life could continue as normal. We don't need a full lockdown. I'm not sure why so many people refuse to wear one. We don't need concrete proof of their effectiveness. Wearing a mask is only a very mild inconvenience.
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