CV19 - Cure worse than the disease? (Vol 5)
Discussion
monkfish1 said:
I think you are in for a major disappointment.
They likely will accept it, and frankly, have no choice anyway. HMG are out of control with their new found powrs such that they operate by decree.
I don't know. Already there are signs that the 10pm pub curfew is up for debate. Matt Hancock apparently admitted something along the lines that the decision was not based on science but was a matter of policy. That sounds like the beginnings of another u-turn to me.They likely will accept it, and frankly, have no choice anyway. HMG are out of control with their new found powrs such that they operate by decree.
johnboy1975 said:
I think, from looking at stats, deaths have been tailing off over the past few years. Basically, we are keeping people alive for longer, and the deaths are falling to pretty much record lows, even accounting for s growing population. All well and good on paper, but that's a very rickety house of cards to build. Something like a pandemic would smash it to pieces......
Hopefully we can rebuild. Not a new normal. An old normal but with enhancements (technology).
My hope us 2021 is a record year for growth and we put all this behind us.
My fear is that when we emerged from this in 2024 there is pretty much nothing left of the old normal, and unemployment rates are still at elevated levels
I don't think the number of jobs will be the problem it's the quality and type of jobs. Hopefully we can rebuild. Not a new normal. An old normal but with enhancements (technology).
My hope us 2021 is a record year for growth and we put all this behind us.
My fear is that when we emerged from this in 2024 there is pretty much nothing left of the old normal, and unemployment rates are still at elevated levels
They are going to be low paid zero hour with little or no benefits. It's going to be a take it or leave it environment.
Twinfan said:
Another view is that the Asian countries have been exposed to more similar viruses in the past therefore they have a level of immunity already.
So under that theory, it has cock all to do with masks.
So it's all due to a hitherto unknown coronavirus that no one had ever heard of or isolated that seemingly has never caused sufficient illness in recent memory in any of the East Asian countries that also never spread anywhere else despite widespread global travel? So under that theory, it has cock all to do with masks.
isaldiri said:
So it's all due to a hitherto unknown coronavirus that no one had ever heard of or isolated that seemingly has never caused sufficient illness in recent memory in any of the East Asian countries that also never spread anywhere else despite widespread global travel?
The one that’s strikingly similar to the body and in symptoms to the common winter respiratory viruses seen worldwide for decades, and were found to have a degree of immunity in 30% of those studied even when never having met it before, that’s right.CABC said:
Twinfan said:
pussinboots said:
I think it's very much cultural. If you look at the East Asian countries, wearing masks is much more prevalent. Although difficult to prove any causal link, the Asian countries are doing far better in controlling the virus than the West. These countries are much more densely populated and have not instituted the kind of lockdowns to the same extent as here. They have not made mask wearing mandatory because they don't need to - it's become a social norm. To me it's just common sense that wearing masks may help reduce infection rates, and at worst does very little. The alternatives are either harsh lockdowns, or large number of deaths. I think the choice is clear?
Another view is that the Asian countries have been exposed to more similar viruses in the past therefore they have a level of immunity already.So under that theory, it has cock all to do with masks.
king whoops 
Boringvolvodriver said:
Jordan210 said:
O F off Kier we dont need a circuit break
We can only hope that if Labour are wanting one, the Tories will say no! Boris was being asked on what measure regions could be removed from Tier 3, to which he failed to have an answer. He then attempted to turn it around on SKS asking on what measure a “circuit breaker” would be ended (perhaps forgetting that it’s “Prime Minister’s Questions”, that he is there to answer). SKS didn’t have the good grace to point out that the whole idea of a “circuit breaker” unlike Tier 3, is that its length is decided up-front.
For me, although I don’t agree with either, I think I’d prefer the whole country goes through 2-3 weeks of total lockdown rather than this patchwork of tiers for which at every tier there is no clear way out (it’s basically at the whim of the govt). These regions could be under these measures for months and months. How long has Leicester been going now? 3 months?
Unfortunately, my reading of the “circuit breaker” is that it would be in addition to all the other ridiculous measures. I can’t support it, nor this stupid tiered thing which doesn’t have a lower level than “medium”.
I’m starting to think Sturgeon’s incoming tiered system might be a better idea. It is expected to include a “zero tier” where life can be normal again. To what degree regions in Scotland will be allowed into it though, is still unclear.
Edited by markyb_lcy on Wednesday 21st October 13:03
The Spruce Goose said:
When the show graphs they should show the last 5 years before as well, to give an honest comparison.
agreed and when they talk about hospital and ITU capacity they should give details of prior years occupancy rates.Without giving context these figure mean nothing.
markyb_lcy said:
Boringvolvodriver said:
Jordan210 said:
O F off Kier we dont need a circuit break
We can only hope that if Labour are wanting one, the Tories will say no! Boris was being asked on what measure regions could be removed from Tier 3, to which he failed to have an answer. He then attempted to turn it around on SKS asking on what measure a “circuit breaker” would be ended (perhaps forgetting that it’s “Prime Minister’s Questions”, that he is there to answer). SKS didn’t have the good grace to point out that the whole idea of a “circuit breaker” unlike Tier 3, is that its length is decided up-front.
For me, although I don’t agree with either, I think I’d prefer the whole country goes through 2-3 weeks of total lockdown rather than this patchwork of tiers for which at every tier there is no clear way out (it’s basically at the whim of the govt). These regions could be under these measures for months and months. How long has Leicester been going now? 3 months?
Unfortunately, my reading of the “circuit breaker” is that it would be in addition to all the other ridiculous measures. I can’t support it, nor this stupid tiered thing which doesn’t have a lower level than “medium”.
I’m starting the think Sturgeon’s tiered system might be a better idea. It is expected to include a “zero tier” where life can be normal again. To what degree regions in Scotland will be allowed into it though, is still unclear.
Edited by markyb_lcy on Wednesday 21st October 13:02
WinstonWolf said:
Lockdown has been experimented with for three months in Leicester and it hasn't worked. It won't work nationally either...
Indeed, but maybe we need to do it again just so people can see that. Apparently it failing once wasn’t enough.Until public mood about these measures moves significantly, we will be stuck with them.
Be aware that although I prefer Sturgeon’s idea to Boris’, that I don’t notionally support either.
markyb_lcy said:
WinstonWolf said:
Lockdown has been experimented with for three months in Leicester and it hasn't worked. It won't work nationally either...
Indeed, but maybe we need to do it again just so people can see that. Apparently it failing once wasn’t enough.Until public mood about these measures moves significantly, we will be stuck with them.
https://www.leicester.gov.uk/your-council/coronavi...
EddieSteadyGo said:
markyb_lcy said:
WinstonWolf said:
Lockdown has been experimented with for three months in Leicester and it hasn't worked. It won't work nationally either...
Indeed, but maybe we need to do it again just so people can see that. Apparently it failing once wasn’t enough.Until public mood about these measures moves significantly, we will be stuck with them.
https://www.leicester.gov.uk/your-council/coronavi...
This is all “lockdown” imo, just varying degrees of it.
i4got said:
The Spruce Goose said:
When the show graphs they should show the last 5 years before as well, to give an honest comparison.
agreed and when they talk about hospital and ITU capacity they should give details of prior years occupancy rates.Without giving context these figure mean nothing.
They want to be able to control the information, and use the stats which support their arguments, without allowing much scrutiny from their opponents.
But we can see what happened in Manchester this week when the government spin of "the hospitals in Manchester are nearly full" was shown to be exaggerated.
It is complicated though to calculate capacity accurately as so much of the resources can be flexed based on need across departments and between hospitals.
Plus the government know if they do allow the information to be released it is going to show lots of embarrassing things which will cause other (non covid) issues for the government.
But regardless of the two points above, we do need urgently some capacity measures which are accepted as being (at least broadly) correct.
markyb_lcy said:
I’m starting to think Sturgeon’s incoming tiered system might be a better idea. It is expected to include a “zero tier” where life can be normal again. To what degree regions in Scotland will be allowed into it though, is still unclear.
It's for show. Here's a Nostradamus like prediction for you - nowhere in Scotland, not even islands that have been Covid free for months, will be in Tier Zero.Can someone check my working on this. Sturgeon's chief clinical adviser made this statement
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-scotland-546212...
Jason Leitch said:
On 7 October, there were 1054 positive cases. If they were doubling every nine days it would have meant by 16 October there would have been 2,500 cases, Prof Leitch says, but there were not.
This suggests the restrictions around household visits and on hospitality "are working but they are working slowly," he says, which is why the government is reluctant to move away from them.
Given the 7 day positive case figure only increased by 50-60% between 7th & 16th, despite increased testing, (source - https://www.gov.scot/binaries/content/documents/go... ) - as far as I can see, there's no way that these interventions had any sort of effect on anything like that scale & actually what's being seen is probably the University impact levelling off. Anyone agree/disagree?This suggests the restrictions around household visits and on hospitality "are working but they are working slowly," he says, which is why the government is reluctant to move away from them.
Hospitality has now been told that it's staying closed for at least another week, until it's closed again by the "tiered restriction" nonsense. They were expecting to be back open on Monday & I imagine a lot of restaurants will already have orders in for fresh food. How are you meant to run a business like this?
markyb_lcy said:
EddieSteadyGo said:
markyb_lcy said:
WinstonWolf said:
Lockdown has been experimented with for three months in Leicester and it hasn't worked. It won't work nationally either...
Indeed, but maybe we need to do it again just so people can see that. Apparently it failing once wasn’t enough.Until public mood about these measures moves significantly, we will be stuck with them.
https://www.leicester.gov.uk/your-council/coronavi...
This is all “lockdown” imo, just varying degrees of it.
Nothing wrong with lockdowns like the one in Leicester. I think we're supposed to believe the problem is that people don't comply with the restrictions.
Where do people think is going between now and CHristmas?
Easing back towards normality?
No change.
More circuit breakers/firebreaks/local lockdowns in different regions?
Some easing in areas while others see restrictions imposed?
Individual country lockdowns?
UK wide national lockdown?
Something else?
I'm convinced the whole country will be tier 3 by Christmas and that effectively a national lockdown will be in place. It won't be called that though. It will be something like 'a temporary isolation period'.
Where do people think is going between now and CHristmas?
Easing back towards normality?
No change.
More circuit breakers/firebreaks/local lockdowns in different regions?
Some easing in areas while others see restrictions imposed?
Individual country lockdowns?
UK wide national lockdown?
Something else?
I'm convinced the whole country will be tier 3 by Christmas and that effectively a national lockdown will be in place. It won't be called that though. It will be something like 'a temporary isolation period'.
markyb_lcy said:
Sure, but they had their “local lockdown” from like June until the Tier 2?
This is all “lockdown” imo, just varying degrees of it.
The tier system makes no sense at all - nor does a circuit breaker p, fire break, or whatever else you want to call it. This is all “lockdown” imo, just varying degrees of it.
Given where the “cases” are coming from, if you want to try and control the virus and help the NHS, then you need to shut schools and stop anybody visiting old people.
My wife has a view that all the vulnerable should be given the facts about the risk to them and then allow them to make a decision as to what to do. With the proviso that should they end up requiring hospital admissions, then they will only get a bed if there is room and then it will only be palliative care.
At the peak of the crisis, a friend of ours had the virus and sadly died. Despite numerous calls to 111, his wife had to go through a process over a few days before he could go to hospital. He eventually went to hospital and after less than 24 hours died - he was 75 with high blood pressure. He was clearly “filtered” or as it is called in medical terms triaged.
Gassing Station | News, Politics & Economics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff