CV19 - Cure worse than the disease? (Vol 5)

[JagLover]

RonaldMcDonaldAteMyCat said:

The most effective argument against the tiered local lockdowns, is that they're ineffective.

Good

They are half hearted measure that don't seem to me to do anywhere near as much economic damage as a full lockdown. They meet the need to be seen to "do something" without renaming the economy old Yeller and start cleaning the shotgun.

[Boringvolvodriver]

RonaldMcDonaldAteMyCat said:

The most effective argument against the tiered local lockdowns, is that they're ineffective.

Agreed - our area has been under the forerunner of tier 2 since mid September, then tier 2 and prior to that only out of them for 3 weeks or so. Cases have not gone down and I have heard from my very reliable source that the numbers that will be announced tomorrow will show a further increase.............

[MDMetal]

ChocolateFrog said:

Alucidnation said:

johnboy1975 said:

smashing said:

johnboy1975 said:

smashing said:

johnboy1975 said:

http://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-welsh-govern...

Sanitary products "not essential "?

This is the rabbit hole that banning non essential products leads you down. Especially if the list is drawn up by a man.

The cynic in me says that was well played by Tesco's

How so?

More interesting, Drakeford said this

He said:

that supermarkets in the country can sell non-essential items during the firebreak lockdown in "exceptional circumstances".

So presumably if your kettle breaks, you can buy a new one. If you are just buying one for sts and giggles though, you can't

Tesco losing out on sales because of government intervention creates SM st storm to force government to undo said intervention.

Its a fairly bonkers interpretation of the rule though. And the fault for that lies squarely with Tesco.

Edit: Apparently after receiving advice from Welsh government

I think it will be u turned. Whether this has helped or not, I'm not so sure.

Respect to the guy doing his weekly shop in his boxers to show the stupidity of clothes being non essential

Edited by johnboy1975 on Monday 26th October 16:14

I thought the idea was to stop supermarkets selling non essential stuff, as non essential shops were forced to close and this would be seen as unfair?

They don't have the internet in Wales?

I'd not considered the possibility Tesco was doing a bit of political manoeuvring. Makes perfect sense as I can't imagine anyone, even a bloke, could class tampons as non-essential.

The issue though is it's vagaries, but backed by heavy fines, so it's not about what seems sensible (If only eh?!) If Tesco asked and they were told then that's what they did, they clearly didn't want to be fined and the advice is handed down so they may as well implement it as described even if it's wrong. As has happened people railed at Tesco, but it was clear the advice was wrong. You'd think this would be a microcasm of the issues on society and some people might wake up a bit...

[ChocolateFrog]

Evolved said:

Disastrous said:

stitched said:

In my experience it is not a lack of competence with some parents, just laziness.
A couple I knew who owned the fattest kid in my sons school year were a prime example, the child was invited to a party at my house, 5 kids and I had decided to let them, with supervision, cook cottage pie.
He had never seen potatoes or carrots peeled before. Never seen mince cooked.
12 years of age and never seen a meal cooked. Unable to comprehend that the house contained no crisps, sweets or fizzy drinks.
He actually got embarrassed as he thought I was too poor to supply such things, when I realised what he was thinking I pointed out that the house belonged to me outright, the 2 decent cars were mine and so were the 2 motorcycles in the garage.
That the lack of ste in the cupboards was a lifestyle choice was completely alien to his thinking

I know it's not what you mean but I love the mental picture of an adult angrily setting a child straight on the material value of his assets at a kids party. "No mate, it's an S1000rr and it is NOT on a PCP. This watch? Omega. Your dad got one of them? Didn't think so."

Haha, I read it that way too. Kid was thinking, wish I’d not asked now, getting a right lecture

Reminded me of a school trip in Year 8. I had to butter a mates toast (not a euphemism) as his mum always did it and he didn't know how.

In hindsight i probably wasnt helping.

[Shepster]

smashing said:

The cynic in me says that was well played by Tesco's

Sanitary products not essential; what a bloody mess...

[stitched]

ChocolateFrog said:

Evolved said:

Disastrous said:

stitched said:

In my experience it is not a lack of competence with some parents, just laziness.
A couple I knew who owned the fattest kid in my sons school year were a prime example, the child was invited to a party at my house, 5 kids and I had decided to let them, with supervision, cook cottage pie.
He had never seen potatoes or carrots peeled before. Never seen mince cooked.
12 years of age and never seen a meal cooked. Unable to comprehend that the house contained no crisps, sweets or fizzy drinks.
He actually got embarrassed as he thought I was too poor to supply such things, when I realised what he was thinking I pointed out that the house belonged to me outright, the 2 decent cars were mine and so were the 2 motorcycles in the garage.
That the lack of ste in the cupboards was a lifestyle choice was completely alien to his thinking

I know it's not what you mean but I love the mental picture of an adult angrily setting a child straight on the material value of his assets at a kids party. "No mate, it's an S1000rr and it is NOT on a PCP. This watch? Omega. Your dad got one of them? Didn't think so."

Haha, I read it that way too. Kid was thinking, wish I’d not asked now, getting a right lecture

Reminded me of a school trip in Year 8. I had to butter a mates toast (not a euphemism) as his mum always did it and he didn't know how.

In hindsight i probably wasnt helping.

[MDMetal]

Evolved said:

Disastrous said:

stitched said:

In my experience it is not a lack of competence with some parents, just laziness.
A couple I knew who owned the fattest kid in my sons school year were a prime example, the child was invited to a party at my house, 5 kids and I had decided to let them, with supervision, cook cottage pie.
He had never seen potatoes or carrots peeled before. Never seen mince cooked.
12 years of age and never seen a meal cooked. Unable to comprehend that the house contained no crisps, sweets or fizzy drinks.
He actually got embarrassed as he thought I was too poor to supply such things, when I realised what he was thinking I pointed out that the house belonged to me outright, the 2 decent cars were mine and so were the 2 motorcycles in the garage.
That the lack of ste in the cupboards was a lifestyle choice was completely alien to his thinking

I know it's not what you mean but I love the mental picture of an adult angrily setting a child straight on the material value of his assets at a kids party. "No mate, it's an S1000rr and it is NOT on a PCP. This watch? Omega. Your dad got one of them? Didn't think so."

Haha, I read it that way too. Kid was thinking, wish I’d not asked now, getting a right lecture

Best have pointed out you specced the metallic paint and paid extra!

I do agree though, I'm not healthy but my little boy never gets sweets or chocolate and although as a toddler he hates veg unless well hidden he eats lots of fruit and we try to cook everything for him, he never had baby food out of jars etc.

[Otispunkmeyer]

EddieSteadyGo said:

The tiered 1, 2 and 3 level restrictions though aren't really lockdowns. And some SAGE members are already publishing their evidence today that they don't reduce interactions between people and so are ineffective.

Which will be like a pincer movement, bearing in mind as I mentioned earlier, the incorrect arguments being made by the sceptics, which will result in a justification for a full lockdown.

Got a link for the SAGE stuff?

[frisbee]

JagLover said:

Good

They are half hearted measure that don't seem to me to do anywhere near as much economic damage as a full lockdown. They meet the need to be seen to "do something" without renaming the economy old Yeller and start cleaning the shotgun.

Bad.

Either do something properly or don't do it at all.

Who knows what's going to happen. What is clear is that the inept morons in charge, all of them, will only make things worse.

[Elysium]

EddieSteadyGo said:

JagLover said:

There has already been suggestions that Boris has been held back from further restrictions by fear of a backbench revolt.

I'm certain this is the case. We would already be in lockdown if we didn't have some sceptical MPs willing to put their head over the parapet.

However, my concern is that they are going into battle using the wrong arguments e.g. "false positives", "casedemic", "lockdowns don't work" etc.

These are the wrong arguments, and they will be proven to be wrong. "False positives" as the primary cause of the recent rise in cases has largely been debunked by the ONS survey. I believe the "casedemic" arguments will fall when excess deaths start to rise in the next 2-3 weeks. Arguing "lockdowns don't work" is another fallacy - of course if you lock everyone down and reduce interactions between people you will reduce the spread of a respiratory infection - and we will see this from the reduction in infection rates in Wales from their lockdown which will be hard to argue against.

The effective arguments are i) how the harms caused by lockdown are more damaging to overall public health than the lives it saves ii) how shielding can actually work in practise to achieve a lower mortality figures than would be achieved with rolling lockdowns and iii) how we should be focused on isolating those with symptoms rather than the healthy.

IMO Boris is going to continue with the tier system until the credibility of those who have picked the wrong arguments are proven clearly to be wrong. After which he will switch to a lockdown policy towards the end of Nov.

I think we are reaching a tipping point where the public push back against restrictions. I also think that Johnson wants that to happen.

The next couple of weeks will be interesting.

The 'casedemic' has happened. The whole of Europe has convinced itself that there is a 'second wave' based on PCR tests, which lead to cases, which lead to hospitalisations, which lead to deaths.

Excess deaths will happen because COVID is real, it is additional to existing risks and because we continue to kill people by restricting access to treatments for other conditions.

The only thing that gets us out of this terrible mess is public opinion. I don't honestly care what arguments need to be made to change it, it just needs to change, because we are destroying our country.

[isaldiri]

JagLover said:

RonaldMcDonaldAteMyCat said:

The most effective argument against the tiered local lockdowns, is that they're ineffective.

Good

They are half hearted measure that don't seem to me to do anywhere near as much economic damage as a full lockdown. They meet the need to be seen to "do something" without renaming the economy old Yeller and start cleaning the shotgun.

Well be careful for what you wish for as it's leading us to what is perceived to actually have worked by the politicians ie full blown lockdown.

[MDMetal]

isaldiri said:

JagLover said:

RonaldMcDonaldAteMyCat said:

The most effective argument against the tiered local lockdowns, is that they're ineffective.

Good

They are half hearted measure that don't seem to me to do anywhere near as much economic damage as a full lockdown. They meet the need to be seen to "do something" without renaming the economy old Yeller and start cleaning the shotgun.

Well be careful for what you wish for as it's leading us to what is perceived to actually have worked by the politicians ie full blown lockdown.

The problem is with literally non of the affected high tier areas improving and the government already having to commit more funding to lock the whole country down again is going to cost a mini fortune that we can't afford. I can't believe they magic money tree is going to get a big shake like the first time round.

[Elysium]

Some graphs for today:

1. Distribution of reported cases by specimen date:



2. Cases per 100k tests vs Deaths with a 10 day lag. After correction for testing volumes cases are bumping around but the rate of increase has slowed. Hopefully deaths will start to do the same:



3. This is cases per 100k tests vs Whitty / Vallance 7 Day Doubling. Actual growth is much slower:

Edited by Elysium on Monday 26th October 18:55

[monkfish1]

MDMetal said:

The problem is with literally non of the affected high tier areas improving and the government already having to commit more funding to lock the whole country down again is going to cost a mini fortune that we can't afford. I can't believe they magic money tree is going to get a big shake like the first time round.

You had better believe it. Because its happening.

Its clear we wont be deviating from the chosen path anytime soon. You cant seriously believe that Boris is going to pop up and say, sorry chaps, we misjudged this, it not bad afterall, all get back to life?

Unless he does more borrowing and money printing is coming.

[Elysium]

England remains in lockstep with Scotland and Northern Ireland in terms of cases. The drop off at the end is reporting lag and the last few days will increase.

The 'circuit breakers' are not a resounding success:

[Condi]

Has SAGE or the government been bending the ears of the BBC again? There are a lot of Covid stories today about how dangerous it is, including a street in Bradford where 2 (yes TWO) people died in a month, and scary stories about an 87 year old being in hospital.

Maybe I'm skeptical but it feels a bit like as people are starting to get fed up and care less some parts of the media are ramping up the fear again.

[grumbledoak]

MDMetal said:

The problem is with literally non of the affected high tier areas improving and the government already having to commit more funding to lock the whole country down again is going to cost a mini fortune that we can't afford. I can't believe they magic money tree is going to get a big shake like the first time round.

I expect lockdown before Christmas. More mask creep. And shaking that tree like we'll never have to repay it.

[Earthdweller]

These are the figures from Ireland where 39 people remain in ICU and 334 in hospital

Rates of hospitalisation and icu occupancy and deaths arent rising yet the country is completely locked down

https://covid19ireland-geohive.hub.arcgis.com/

[wombleh]

There was a story in the Oxford paper that the JR hospital had 16 people in suffering with covid, 2 on ventilators. Then a few days later a story that the local councillors had requested the area get bumped up a tier, which the govt rejected, there’s another story today that the greens want the area at the next tier

[MellowshipSlinky]

Nottingham going to Tier 3 from Thursday.

Cases appear to have almost halved in the last week.....