CV19 - Cure worse than the disease? (Vol 5)

CV19 - Cure worse than the disease? (Vol 5)

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grumbledoak

31,544 posts

234 months

Wednesday 28th October 2020
quotequote all
A quick "where we are with the second wave" comparison with March. I shifted the "Second wave" so they both start when they reach double digits.


https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths

Oakey

27,591 posts

217 months

Wednesday 28th October 2020
quotequote all
markyb_lcy said:
Oakey said:
markyb_lcy said:
It is not the job of shopkeepers to enforce the law.
Shopkeepers enforce the law all the time. Or would you be happy for your underage kid to come home with a carrier full of fags, booze and knives in one hand and a box of matches and can of petrol in the other?
Do they? Or do they call someone to enforce it for them?
What planet are you living on? Who do you think they call when some underage kid tries to buy alcohol? They ID them and if they fail to produce it they refuse to serve them. That's it.

I suspect the only reason they don't challenge people over masks is because the sort of person who makes a scene about not wearing one is probably the sort to resort to violence.

markyb_lcy

9,904 posts

63 months

Wednesday 28th October 2020
quotequote all
Oakey said:
markyb_lcy said:
Oakey said:
markyb_lcy said:
It is not the job of shopkeepers to enforce the law.
Shopkeepers enforce the law all the time. Or would you be happy for your underage kid to come home with a carrier full of fags, booze and knives in one hand and a box of matches and can of petrol in the other?
Do they? Or do they call someone to enforce it for them?
What planet are you living on? Who do you think they call when some underage kid tries to buy alcohol? They ID them and if they fail to produce it they refuse to serve them. That's it.

I suspect the only reason they don't challenge people over masks is because the sort of person who makes a scene about not wearing one is probably the sort to resort to violence.
As another user has already stated...

That is not ENFORCING the law, it is complying with it.

It is against the law for the shopkeeper to sell alcohol to the kid, not for the kid to buy alcohol.

What planet are you living on?

johnboy1975

8,403 posts

109 months

Wednesday 28th October 2020
quotequote all
Lord Marylebone said:
JagLover said:
The Spruce Goose said:
On the news, cases doubling, second wave, hospital admissions doubling. Are any of these statements based on facts?
They might well all be correct. Whether we should be worried by these events is another matter entirely.

Hospital admissions and deaths still only a fraction of the April peak and cases increasing far less rapidly than they did then.
I agree.

I would expect figures like hospital admissions to be pretty accurate, because lets be honest, it's fairly easy for hospitals to count how many patients they have and what they are suffering from.

Having said that, what Jag goes on to say is perhaps the more important point of 'should we be worried?'.

I would say that provided our hospitals are coping and aren't being overrun, then we shouldn't be concerned over the number of cases. The slight issue with this of course, is that hospital admissions tend to lag behind cases/infections.
2 things

1 Covid admission is made up of 2 numbers, serious resitory infection with prior covid positive test leading to admittance, and positive covid test whilst in the hospital for something else. So the 1000 a day is fairly meaningless without a breakdown.

2 Our hospitals are overrun every winter. So its all very well to say "whilst the hospitals aren't being overran, crack on". But we are not going to be able to use that argument for much longer.

I'm very much against another lockdown, but I think Boris, having started down this route, is painted into a corner now. The worse of all worlds, he looks stingy (trying to avoid a lockdiwn, trying to do it on the cheap), not down with the science (sage said lockdown) and late (Labour been calling for it for week(s)

Condi

17,207 posts

172 months

Wednesday 28th October 2020
quotequote all
markyb_lcy said:
As another user has already stated...

That is not ENFORCING the law, it is complying with it.

It is against the law for the shopkeeper to sell alcohol to the kid, not for the kid to buy alcohol.

What planet are you living on?
Yes.

It is the law that shoppers must wear masks.
It is the law that shopkeepers cannot serve alcohol to underage kids.

It is not illegal for shopkeepers to serve those not wearing masks.
It is not illegal for a 14 year to try and buy alcohol.

Ergo, the shopkeeper is complying with the law, not enforcing it, when he asks for ID.

ORD

18,120 posts

128 months

Wednesday 28th October 2020
quotequote all
If the country locks down again, anyone with assets should sell them and get gone before the collapse. FTSE is already dive-bombing at the mere threat of it.

markyb_lcy

9,904 posts

63 months

Wednesday 28th October 2020
quotequote all
ORD said:
If the country locks down again, anyone with assets should sell them and get gone before the collapse. FTSE is already dive-bombing at the mere threat of it.
Go where though? Sweden doesn’t have room for us all!

I’ve been considering where might be good to parachute into, if this continues, and there isn’t a great deal of choice.

Elysium

13,835 posts

188 months

Wednesday 28th October 2020
quotequote all
grumbledoak said:
A quick "where we are with the second wave" comparison with March. I shifted the "Second wave" so they both start when they reach double digits.


https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths
It’s not like March. The second wave has taken six weeks to get here. Growth in cases slowed 2 weeks ago so deaths are likely to follow.

Even if they don’t, what are we going to do about it?

Lockdowns destroy lives and wreak unbelievable harm. The Tier system doesn’t work and circuit breakers don’t work.

Sooner or later we are going to need to shrug our shoulders and face this.

I say we do it now.

R Mutt

5,893 posts

73 months

Wednesday 28th October 2020
quotequote all
grumbledoak said:
A quick "where we are with the second wave" comparison with March. I shifted the "Second wave" so they both start when they reach double digits.


https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths
Can we adjust both for 5 year average deaths?

kingston12

5,483 posts

158 months

Wednesday 28th October 2020
quotequote all
Condi said:
Yes.

It is the law that shoppers must wear masks.
It is the law that shopkeepers cannot serve alcohol to underage kids.

It is not illegal for shopkeepers to serve those not wearing masks.
It is not illegal for a 14 year to try and buy alcohol.

Ergo, the shopkeeper is complying with the law, not enforcing it, when he asks for ID.
The part in bold isn't quite right - it's illegal for an underage person to buy or attempt to buy alcohol as well as being illegal for the shopkeeper to sell it to them.

https://www.drinkaware.co.uk/advice/underage-drink...

There's definitely no law on serving those without masks as far as I am aware.

johnboy1975

8,403 posts

109 months

Wednesday 28th October 2020
quotequote all
Elysium said:
grumbledoak said:
A quick "where we are with the second wave" comparison with March. I shifted the "Second wave" so they both start when they reach double digits.


https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths
It’s not like March. The second wave has taken six weeks to get here. Growth in cases slowed 2 weeks ago so deaths are likely to follow.

Even if they don’t, what are we going to do about it?

Lockdowns destroy lives and wreak unbelievable harm. The Tier system doesn’t work and circuit breakers don’t work.

Sooner or later we are going to need to shrug our shoulders and face this.

I say we do it now.
beer

Too late, the groundwork has been done, and the direction of travel is clear. I imagine calculations are being done as we speak as to when to time it for maximum effect. If 2 weeks buys us a month, as reported by sage, if they can get into November they have a chance of Christmas not being cancelled. I reckon that's a higher priority than perhaps it should be, not least because of the threat of no one complying, and them looking a bit silly

jshell

11,006 posts

206 months

Wednesday 28th October 2020
quotequote all
ORD said:
If the country locks down again, anyone with assets should sell them and get gone before the collapse. FTSE is already dive-bombing at the mere threat of it.
Small, easily transportable, untraceable assets is where it's at...pre-wealth tax introduction.

Elysium

13,835 posts

188 months

Wednesday 28th October 2020
quotequote all
johnboy1975 said:
Elysium said:
grumbledoak said:
A quick "where we are with the second wave" comparison with March. I shifted the "Second wave" so they both start when they reach double digits.


https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths
It’s not like March. The second wave has taken six weeks to get here. Growth in cases slowed 2 weeks ago so deaths are likely to follow.

Even if they don’t, what are we going to do about it?

Lockdowns destroy lives and wreak unbelievable harm. The Tier system doesn’t work and circuit breakers don’t work.

Sooner or later we are going to need to shrug our shoulders and face this.

I say we do it now.
beer

Too late, the groundwork has been done, and the direction of travel is clear. I imagine calculations are being done as we speak as to when to time it for maximum effect. If 2 weeks buys us a month, as reported by sage, if they can get into November they have a chance of Christmas not being cancelled. I reckon that's a higher priority than perhaps it should be, not least because of the threat of no one complying, and them looking a bit silly
2 weeks buys us fk all.

We have the data from Scotland and their attempt did nothing.

If they try another lock down we say no.

If we let it happen again there will be no going back.

Brave Fart

5,737 posts

112 months

Wednesday 28th October 2020
quotequote all
Elysium said:
<slight edit>

Lockdowns destroy lives and wreak unbelievable harm. The Tier system doesn’t work and circuit breakers don’t work.
Sooner or later we are going to need to shrug our shoulders and face this.
I say we do it now.
Couldn't agree more Elysium, well said. Trouble is, I think those of us who think this way are in a small minority. Boris and Hancock are beyond stupid and will double down on their fear mongering. The Labour party wants a national lockdown, and we can see what Sturgeon and Drakeford think, let alone the NI assembly. Germany, yes Germany, is going for tougher measures.

As you say, we can face this. Or we can pretend that stricter measures are needed, and my sense is that they're inevitable. I have ceased to be angry and frustrated; there's no point because the herd is too scared to be rational. Christmas is cancelled. So be it. I'm opening a bottle of red. Cheers!

Brave Fart

5,737 posts

112 months

Wednesday 28th October 2020
quotequote all
jshell said:
ORD said:
If the country locks down again, anyone with assets should sell them and get gone before the collapse. FTSE is already dive-bombing at the mere threat of it.
Small, easily transportable, untraceable assets is where it's at...pre-wealth tax introduction.
An Aston Martin you say? V12 Vantage, registered to my mother? Off to Auto Trader now!

monkfish1

11,076 posts

225 months

Wednesday 28th October 2020
quotequote all
Brave Fart said:
jshell said:
ORD said:
If the country locks down again, anyone with assets should sell them and get gone before the collapse. FTSE is already dive-bombing at the mere threat of it.
Small, easily transportable, untraceable assets is where it's at...pre-wealth tax introduction.
An Aston Martin you say? V12 Vantage, registered to my mother? Off to Auto Trader now!
Not quite sure he had cars in mind! Its certainly not an untraceable asset. Indeed, its probably niether!

a311

5,806 posts

178 months

Wednesday 28th October 2020
quotequote all
Brave Fart said:
Elysium said:
<slight edit>

Lockdowns destroy lives and wreak unbelievable harm. The Tier system doesn’t work and circuit breakers don’t work.
Sooner or later we are going to need to shrug our shoulders and face this.
I say we do it now.
Couldn't agree more Elysium, well said. Trouble is, I think those of us who think this way are in a small minority. Boris and Hancock are beyond stupid and will double down on their fear mongering. The Labour party wants a national lockdown, and we can see what Sturgeon and Drakeford think, let alone the NI assembly. Germany, yes Germany, is going for tougher measures.

As you say, we can face this. Or we can pretend that stricter measures are needed, and my sense is that they're inevitable. I have ceased to be angry and frustrated; there's no point because the herd is too scared to be rational. Christmas is cancelled. So be it. I'm opening a bottle of red. Cheers!
Thirded. The Germans going for a lockdown who were seen to handle the first wave well, leaves me zero hope the same won't happen in the UK in the near future. The inevitability is depressing in itself.

My area of Cumbria is sparsely populated. Infections are low but rising. None of this makes sense.

Elysium

13,835 posts

188 months

Wednesday 28th October 2020
quotequote all
Great article I’m from a pathologist on the potential issues with the data

https://lockdownsceptics.org/how-covid-deaths-are-...


isaldiri

18,604 posts

169 months

Wednesday 28th October 2020
quotequote all
a311 said:
Wonder what the difference has been in Germany to amke them go full lockdown. Usual seasonal increase in respiratory illness?
Germany isn't in full lockdown. Shutting hospitality like restaurant/pubs and some extra distancing rules is quite a bit different to the general stay at home order from March.

isaldiri

18,604 posts

169 months

Wednesday 28th October 2020
quotequote all
ORD said:
If the country locks down again, anyone with assets should sell them and get gone before the collapse. FTSE is already dive-bombing at the mere threat of it.
Funnily enough it's practically every equity market that is 'dive bombing' as you put it. Stop being such an economic karen - it's as daft as the bloody covid karens that drone on about the deadly disease and how much we need to fear it.
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