CV19 - Cure worse than the disease? (Vol 5)

[V1nce Fox]

king arthur said:

320d is all you need said:

I don't think any one here is "anti vaxxer".

I don't personally want a vaccine for an illness I'm at a virtually zero risk of dying of.
When the risks of having the vaccine are completely unknown.

Ditto.

same here.

[croyde]

Tyre Smoke said:

Of course it was! The Chinese wouldn't make that up.

I don't believe what the Chinese say on their news anymore than what the BBC say, these days.

[anonymous-user]

The PPE procurement mess takes a new twist today with the release of documents that show friends of the government were offered beneficial access to contracts.

That's not a good look

https://goodlawproject.org/news/special-procuremen...

[R Mutt]

JagLover said:

V1nce Fox said:

i’m going to take st for saying this but imho closing schools should be one of the last resorts. the damage there already is pretty bad.

You are completely correct.

A society that would sacrifice its children's future, in a foolish and futile attempt to prevent the very elderly from passing away naturally, has lost is bearings.

Lucky there's no notion among HM Opposition of financial compensation in lieu of education during Lockdown otherwise they'd be screaming for schools to be shut.

[Taylor James]

Jamesgt said:

Darth Paul said:

The French are usually pretty good at ignoring pointless laws and equally the French police are pretty good at not enforcing them either. I was surprised how readily they fell inline with the first lockdown so will be interested to see what happens on v2.0.

My sister lives in Paris. She was stopped multiple times during the first lock down while she was just out for a walk or run. It all seems very un-french.

Not if you read some history and know the French. They have a labyrinthine and crushing bureaucracy and very high levels of compliance. Their Police as as enthusiastic as any others when it comes to following orders and ordering people about. People here are given the false impression that the French are constantly protesting about something or other and their Police stand by and watch. It's not like that all.

Not aimed at you or your sister but Paris is no more representative of France than London is of the UK or Washington DC the US.

[ORD]

I apologise for being rude to Isaldri. He’s an obnoxious git, but so am I. I am sorry for being unpleasant. I find this all deeply upsetting and am finding it hard to be as tolerant as I wish.

Back on topic, ‘cases’ rising doesn’t concern me at all. There’s no other way out of this. We have to remember how to be courageous and show some backbone. We used to be a very proud and impressive people.

[isaldiri]

WindyCommon said:

The REACT-1 study is conducted through PCR testing of a random/representative group of participants nationally. This means no pre-selection based on symptoms, so it should give the most reliable indication of general prevalence. It is conducted periodically, with the latest round covering the 10-day period to October 25th.

REACT-1 study said:

Overall prevalence of infection in the community in England was 1.28% or 128 people per 10,000, up from 60 per 10,000 in the previous round. Infections were doubling every 9.0 (6.1, 18) days with a national reproduction number (R) estimated at 1.56 (1.27, 1.88) compared to 1.16 (1.05, 1.27) in the previous round. Prevalence of infection was highest in Yorkshire and The Humber at 2.72% (2.12%, 3.50%), up from 0.84% (0.60%, 1.17%), and the North West at 2.27% (1.90%, 2.72%), up from 1.21% (1.01%, 1.46%), and lowest in East of England at 0.55% (0.45%, 0.68%), up from 0.29% (0.23%, 0.37%). Clustering of cases was more prevalent in Lancashire, Manchester, Liverpool and West Yorkshire, West Midlands and East Midlands. Interim estimates of R were above 2 in the South East, East of England, London and South West, but with wide confidence intervals. Nationally, prevalence increased across all age groups with the greatest increase in those aged 55-64 at 1.20% (0.99%, 1.46%), up 3-fold from 0.37% (0.30%, 0.46%). In those aged over 65, prevalence was 0.81% (0.58%, 0.96%) up 2-fold from 0.35% (0.28%, 0.43%). Prevalence remained highest in 18 to 24-year olds at 2.25% (1.47%, 3.42%).

Whatever your preferences/beliefs, this is worrying data.

React-1 is and has been in line with the ONS prevalence levels, down to high age group prevalence levels. Following the >65 per react and >70s per ONS levels it is no surprise at the rise of covid and excess deaths seen so far and there's no good reason why it wouldn't continue rising by quite a bit for a good while longer.

[johnboy1975]

ORD said:

I apologise for being rude to Isaldri. He’s an obnoxious git, but so am I. I am sorry for being unpleasant. I find this all deeply upsetting and am finding it hard to be as tolerant as I wish.

Back on topic, ‘cases’ rising doesn’t concern me at all. There’s no other way out of this. We have to remember how to be courageous and show some backbone. We used to be a very proud and impressive people.

Robert Jenrick (todays government stooge) on Sky still resisting national lockdown. Which is a good sign (or not, considering how often they u turn)

Sky News: https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-live-latest...

Live news event for some reason. Around 730am

[johnboy1975]

isaldiri said:

React-1 is and has been in line with the ONS prevalence levels, down to high age group prevalence levels. Following the >65 per react and >70s per ONS levels it is no surprise at the rise of covid and excess deaths seen so far and there's no good reason why it wouldn't continue rising by quite a bit for a good while longer.

Are you saying 300 / 400 / 500 deaths a day all winter?

Won't infections peak shortly, followed by deaths in about 2 weeks time?

[21st Century Man]

JagLover said:

V1nce Fox said:

i’m going to take st for saying this but imho closing schools should be one of the last resorts. the damage there already is pretty bad.

You are completely correct.

A society that would sacrifice its children's future, in a foolish and futile attempt to prevent the very elderly from passing away naturally, has lost is bearings.

I don't disagree, but where's the logic? Particularly with the current narrative that is being pushed? I've just turned the telly on and it's rabid panic.

The sectors that are responsible for by far the greatest number of infections/transmissions are untouched, as if they were sacrosant, yet sectors that are responsible for only a teeny weeny percentage are being utterley destroyed.

Imagine the paramedics turning up and ignoring a major artery bleeding out, but instead massively focusing on a cut finger? Another analogy was fortifying your house yet leaving your front door open.

I've read that in France you can't mix or travel more than a kilometre, but they haven't shut schools. Whether you believe the narrative or not, it is nonetheless the narrative, so these things makes no sense.

[TheDrBrian]

rich888 said:

That's a bit harsh, bricks aren't that thick

I was under the impression after listening to Dr Mike Yeadon that the Covid-19 epidemic has nearly run its course having infected the majority of the population earlier in the year which peaked in March and killed quite a few of the elderly and frail population in the process, and as has been stated on here numerous times before, in healthy people their immune systems (specifically the t cells) kill the virus before it can do any damage, or they feel crap for a few weeks/months as the anti-bodies enter the fight before they recover, apparently it takes the body a few weeks to provide a large enough number of anti-bodies to kill the virus which is why most folks feel run down in the meantime, essential the body is building a war machine.

So the politicians know that there is a strong possibility that the case numbers and deaths will start dropping in the spring, so need to fool the general population into thinking it was their actions that caused the fall, otherwise they will be rumbled. And of course the magic vaccine will be unveiled which will save everyone, except the numbers were going to fall anyway as we move out of the flu season. They know that they have screwed up the economy with unnecessary lockdowns and other stupid actions, but they can't reverse the decisions because they are politicians and need to appear to be intelligent, when in actual fact, they are 'thick as bricks, badly advised, panicked and don’t know how to get back to sane'. Now where did I read that description of them before?

And that’s it in a nutshell. Politicians need to be right or else they’ll be voted out. And they can’t admit they were led by the media in March.


Anyway on to more positive news

25.5% of 18-24 year olds in America seriously considered suicide in June.

I’m sure it’s worth it.

[Elysium]

the-photographer said:

WindyCommon said:

The REACT-1 study is conducted through PCR testing of a random/representative group of participants nationally. This means no pre-selection based on symptoms, so it should give the most reliable indication of general prevalence. It is conducted periodically, with the latest round covering the 10-day period to October 25th.

REACT-1 study said:

Overall prevalence of infection in the community in England was 1.28% or 128 people per 10,000, up from 60 per 10,000 in the previous round. Infections were doubling every 9.0 (6.1, 18) days with a national reproduction number (R) estimated at 1.56 (1.27, 1.88) compared to 1.16 (1.05, 1.27) in the previous round. Prevalence of infection was highest in Yorkshire and The Humber at 2.72% (2.12%, 3.50%), up from 0.84% (0.60%, 1.17%), and the North West at 2.27% (1.90%, 2.72%), up from 1.21% (1.01%, 1.46%), and lowest in East of England at 0.55% (0.45%, 0.68%), up from 0.29% (0.23%, 0.37%). Clustering of cases was more prevalent in Lancashire, Manchester, Liverpool and West Yorkshire, West Midlands and East Midlands. Interim estimates of R were above 2 in the South East, East of England, London and South West, but with wide confidence intervals. Nationally, prevalence increased across all age groups with the greatest increase in those aged 55-64 at 1.20% (0.99%, 1.46%), up 3-fold from 0.37% (0.30%, 0.46%). In those aged over 65, prevalence was 0.81% (0.58%, 0.96%) up 2-fold from 0.35% (0.28%, 0.43%). Prevalence remained highest in 18 to 24-year olds at 2.25% (1.47%, 3.42%).

Whatever your preferences/beliefs, this is worrying data.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/207534/coronavirus-infections-rising-rapidly-england-react/

The overall reproduction number (R) has increased to 1.6, with infections doubling every 9 days, meaning that the epidemic is continuing to grow across the country.

This corresponds to 96,000 new infections each day.

Prevalence was highest in Yorkshire and The Humber (2.7% up from 0.84%), where 1 in 40 were estimated to have the virus.

etc

Overall, after correction for testing levels, cases by specimen date have doubled over a 26 day period.

The ONS infection data released on the 23rd Oct showed growth slowing and will not be updated until tomorrow.

I am struggling to reconcile that with a 9 day doubling from react.

[mondeoman]

Alucidnation said:

Herd immunity is pie in the sky.

BOT BOT BOT

[mondeoman]

scottyp123 said:

Isn't herd immunity the thing that has stopped the human race going extinct many many times over in the last few million years.

yeah but, no, but yeah, but no butt

[paulw123]

Yet more obsession with lockdowns on the news this morning. No thoughts of an end game. Lockdowns are totally unsustainable and with education being unaffected are totally pointless

[isaldiri]

21st Century Man said:

don't disagree, but where's the logic? Particularly with the current narrative that is being pushed? I've just turned the telly on and it's rabid panic.

The sectors that are responsible for by far the greatest number of infections/transmissions are untouched, as if they were sacrosant, yet sectors that are responsible for only a teeny weeny percentage are being utterley destroyed.

Imagine the paramedics turning up and ignoring a major artery bleeding out, but instead massively focusing on a cut finger? Another analogy was fortifying your house yet leaving your front door open.

I've read that in France you can't mix or travel more than a kilometre, but they haven't shut schools. Whether you believe the narrative or not, it is nonetheless the narrative, so these things makes no sense.

I suppose the logic is that the social cost of shutting schools is very high so it's worthwhile letting the diseased little gits run riot while trying to shut off everything else to hope overall it gets down to R<1......

[monkfish1]

mondeoman said:

Alucidnation said:

Herd immunity is pie in the sky.

BOT BOT BOT

Consistent Bot.

I think trying to step in to sambuckets shoes but using less words.

[Boringvolvodriver]

isaldiri said:

I suppose the logic is that the social cost of shutting schools is very high so it's worthwhile letting the diseased little gits run riot while trying to shut off everything else to hope overall it gets down to R<1......

Agree that the social long term cost of shutting schools maybe worthwhile although not shutting schools will not bring the numbers down. I suspect that they are the ones causing the “cases” to rise in homes.

I think it is more a political decision in that they have said they won’t close schools so it will be the head in the sand approach.

And as for the Imperial model - let’s hope there is no vested interest in delaying infections............

Finally, if 96,000 are being infected every day, then it helps towards the population immunity that has stopped every other virus in the past.

My big frustration is that the media are never reporting that the hospital admissions are mainly old people who would probably going into hospital now with flu or some other ailment which could also hasten their death.

I don’t see a way out of this until summer next year at the earliest

[scrubchub]

JagLover said:

V1nce Fox said:

i’m going to take st for saying this but imho closing schools should be one of the last resorts. the damage there already is pretty bad.

You are completely correct.

A society that would sacrifice its children's future, in a foolish and futile attempt to prevent the very elderly from passing away naturally, has lost is bearings.

I'm a primary school teacher in year 6 and you're both absolutely correct. The things that I have had to cover this year to try and catch up...... I don't think people realise how far behind our children are.

[EddieSteadyGo]

the-photographer said:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/scientists-hope...

Oxford has lost its lead in the race, however great news if it happens

The government believes that a German vaccine backed by Pfizer could be ready to distribute before Christmas, with the first doses earmarked for the elderly and vulnerable.

Albert Bourla, the chief executive of Pfizer, said that the vaccine was in the “last mile” and that the pharmaceutical company expected results within a matter of weeks.

This is a more balanced article though

https://uk.reuters.com/article/pfizer-results/pfiz...

On the vaccine, I am wondering if there is a case to offer vaccinations to be over 70's before the Phase III trial is completed.

We know it should be safe, and we know it looks to be safe, so far. So I wouldn't advocate offering it to a healthy 30 year old, but considering the IFR is so high if you are over 80 for example, maybe the small risk of the vaccine is lower than the larger risk of catching covid?