CV19 - Cure worse than the disease? (Vol 5)

[isaldiri]

320d is all you need said:

When will ANYONE realise that SAGE are no good for anyone?

And do we think there is ANY way out of the current situation?

I genuinely don't see any way out within the next 5 years. I think the last 8 months is only the start of it.

There's nothing too outlandish in the sage spi-m report. The assumptions are all fairly reasonable (although I'd argue behaviour would change more as enough people start dying which isn't being accounted for).

It's called a 'reasonable worst case scenario' after all. It is supposed to show an overly pessimistic view of what might happen.

And I'd point out their prediction if anything so far has not been pessimistic enough as they predicted October would hold at R~1 with some mild extra social distancing rules and we are probably seeing the November phase of their graph early with over 100 deaths a day already.

The way out is for the government messaging to change. Until that does nothing will be different. As I keep.on saying they can't expect people/media clamouring for more restrictions when cases/deaths increase having constantly been droning on about defeating the deadly disease. They (and us) need to simply accept a good number of people, potentially a fair few even will die and manage that as best as possible without wrecking everyone else life/future.

[wobert]

So, I’m currently under ‘house arrest’ as I’m living in Wales.....

This is the latest headline in the BBC:



Further down the feed is this graphic, the horizontal lines are at 100, 200 and 300 people:



Is it me, or are the two completely mismatched?

[320d is all you need]

wobert said:

So, I’m currently under ‘house arrest’ as I’m living in Wales.....

This is the latest headline in the BBC:



Further down the feed is this graphic, the horizontal lines are at 100, 200 and 300 people:



Is it me, or are the two completely mismatched?

Also, they are making it sound like all of these people are in Hospital because of their Covid symptoms when the fact of the matter is, that many of these people are in hospital for other things (operations, procedures and the like), and simply have a positive test. doesn't mean they are a Covid admission!!! (or rather, it shouldn't!)

[df76]

Pupbelly said:

Thanks for the replies to my posts - So the reality is then that a vaccine which is truly effective is very much unlikely and in the meantime the UK & world limps on in a state of fluff and nonsense!

I wouldn't give up on the vaccine.. there are several different options being tested and being led by the best teams in the world. There's a decent chance that they will have something that's effective.

[grumbledoak]

320d is all you need said:

I genuinely don't see any way out within the next 5 years. I think the last 8 months is only the start of it.

2025 is my prediction too.

[df76]

wobert said:

So, I’m currently under ‘house arrest’ as I’m living in Wales.....

This is the latest headline in the BBC:



Further down the feed is this graphic, the horizontal lines are at 100, 200 and 300 people:



Is it me, or are the two completely mismatched?

Are you comparing occupancy levels against new admissions?? How many of those in the lower graph have now left hospital??

[king arthur]

grumbledoak said:

320d is all you need said:

I genuinely don't see any way out within the next 5 years. I think the last 8 months is only the start of it.

2025 is my prediction too.

If it lasts that long there won't be any normal to go back to.

[alangla]

320d is all you need said:

Also, they are making it sound like all of these people are in Hospital because of their Covid symptoms when the fact of the matter is, that many of these people are in hospital for other things (operations, procedures and the like), and simply have a positive test. doesn't mean they are a Covid admission!!! (or rather, it shouldn't!)

How many of them caught it in hospital - that seems to be a recurring problem, especially in some of the bigger Welsh hospitals.

[MikeT66]

Vanden Saab said:

For the few who do not listen to talk radio, this mornings interview with Neil Oliver is well worth a listen. For full disclosure I also have to admit to enjoying listening to Richard Madeley.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TaErb5sOD4w

Just listened to/watched that. Excellent, grounded opinions from Mr. Oliver (as usual). But no-one in power is listening.

[grumbledoak]

king arthur said:

If it lasts that long there won't be any normal to go back to.

We aren't going back to old normal. It has been made pretty clear, but everyone is in denial.

[21st Century Man]

king arthur said:

grumbledoak said:

320d is all you need said:

I genuinely don't see any way out within the next 5 years. I think the last 8 months is only the start of it.

2025 is my prediction too.

If it lasts that long there won't be any normal to go back to.

Depressing. I think that at the very least next year is going to be a repeat of this year and possibly worse in terms of management and mitigation, even if the outright number of deaths are nothing like.

[B'stard Child]

monkfish1 said:

mondeoman said:

Alucidnation said:

Herd immunity is pie in the sky.

BOT BOT BOT

Consistent Bot.

I think trying to step in to sambuckets shoes but using less words.

I'm in favour of that

[anonymous-user]

grumbledoak said:

We aren't going back to old normal. It has been made pretty clear, but everyone is in denial.

Out of interest, which aspects of our current situation do you feel might be permanent?

[wobert]

df76 said:

wobert said:

So, I’m currently under ‘house arrest’ as I’m living in Wales.....

This is the latest headline in the BBC:



Further down the feed is this graphic, the horizontal lines are at 100, 200 and 300 people:



Is it me, or are the two completely mismatched?

Are you comparing occupancy levels against new admissions?? How many of those in the lower graph have now left hospital??

Your right, but even so the two should correlate, even allowing for a slight lag between a new case being admitted and then becoming counted as part of the occupancy level.

The two don’t correlate to the headline though....

[TheJimi]

Lord Marylebone said:

grumbledoak said:

We aren't going back to old normal. It has been made pretty clear, but everyone is in denial.

Out of interest, which aspects of our current situation do you feel might be permanent?

I realise the question isn't directed at me, but I don't see any end in sight without a very successful and effective vaccine and that's not looking hugely likely, so it's kinda easy to see how you could conclude that the old normal is gone.

[Ntv]

The Spruce Goose said:

mondeoman said:

Shhhh, you'll scare the Swedes

T and T is part of the armoury but not infallible.

it is similar to a lockdown only really works with a good t and t.

If we accept that most positives or would be positives - were they to be tested - are asymptomatic ... how can T&T ever be really effective

To make matters worse the penalty for being positive (esp for parents, certain workers etc) is so high that many with symptoms won’t bother to get tested. I know I wouldn’t

It can never work

[Ntv]

TheJimi said:

Lord Marylebone said:

grumbledoak said:

We aren't going back to old normal. It has been made pretty clear, but everyone is in denial.

Out of interest, which aspects of our current situation do you feel might be permanent?

I realise the question isn't directed at me, but I don't see any end in sight without a very successful and effective vaccine and that's not looking hugely likely, so it's kinda easy to see how you could conclude that the old normal is gone.

I think changed patterns of behaviour and consumption will stick to some degree, the longer this goes on

And a more authoritarian state. Unless authoritarianism is strongly resisted (which it hasn’t been) why would one believe we won’t shift in that direction for many years to come?

[worsy]

TheJimi said:

Lord Marylebone said:

grumbledoak said:

We aren't going back to old normal. It has been made pretty clear, but everyone is in denial.

Out of interest, which aspects of our current situation do you feel might be permanent?

I realise the question isn't directed at me, but I don't see any end in sight without a very successful and effective vaccine and that's not looking hugely likely, so it's kinda easy to see how you could conclude that the old normal is gone.

Football Crowds ( Manchester United have proposed 23000 capacity socially distanced)
Standing at Musical Concerts
Festivals
Propping up the bar at the local
Cheap air travel
Nightclubs

All gone I fear.

[GroundEffect]

Elysium said:

The Spectator have published SAGES reasonable worst case scenario for the winter:

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/classified-cov...

Use Google incognito if it appears paywalled.

This is dated July 2020, which implies it has been deliberately withheld from publication with the other papers due to its sensitivity.

The interesting points for me are:

1. They are adding in 30% non-COVID excess deaths
2. The assumption is that we have some sort of further measures at the end of Nov, which are kept in place until March.

This seems to be the document that has been controlling our freedoms for months and is likely to do so for many more.

They talk about 2.4% of cases requiring hospitalisation, which is more reasonable than the original 4% assumption, but still a bit high. They also mention 359k cases in hospital implying that the anticipate 14.9 million people will be infected between July and March.

This graph is interesting:



The flat spot is presumably the modelling of a ‘circuit breaker’, which we know did not work in NI or Scotland and we will find out soon if it worked in Wales.

In fairness, If you factor out the flat spot, then our current scenario of 1000 admissions and 200 deaths per day is not far off their thinking. However, they saw this happening at 30,000 infections per week, whereas we are have 153k positive tests reported in the last 7 days.

So the Govt knew for months that this was going to happen, the circuit breaker idea has been kicking around since the summer and they deliberately kept it from us

The thing that give me hope here is the discrepancy between the severity of the impact they predicted and the comparably low level of infections. I think they could easily be out by a factor of 5.

Watch for the peak!

And just how many people would have been proclaiming it as some sort of fear mongering if they had? They cannot win.

[isaldiri]

TheJimi said:

I realise the question isn't directed at me, but I don't see any end in sight without a very successful and effective vaccine and that's not looking hugely likely, so it's kinda easy to see how you could conclude that the old normal is gone.

Really can't agree with that. By next summer most of it will be done either way whether by restriction fatigue or vaccine. I think it's far more damaging for the insistence that things will never return to normal whether by the virus karens or those constantly promoting the 'great reset' idea (who are equally karenic in their own way).