CV19 - Cure worse than the disease? (Vol 5)

[Boringvolvodriver]

Lotobear said:

They need to get Sumption on board!

I read somewhere that he is....... hopefully will be very vocal

[markyb_lcy]

Alucidnation said:

To be honest, (and i am sure i am not the only one), I just don't know what to think anymore.

If i get CV19 - there is a high probability that I won't survive it.

Would i have a vaccine if there was one available? - Yes, and I would hope there is less chance of that killing me than CV19.

However, having said all that, I am not staying home any more than I would normally, but when i do go out, I use hand sanitiser, and wear a mask etc.

Fair enough on that first point, I’m sure on all sides of this people are bewildered. I know I am.

If you have any level of fear of your safety with regard to the vaccine then I honestly can’t understand your logic. You’re not destined to be infected, and even if you are, given your age, unless you have a specific condition that increases your vulnerability, then the chances are it will be a sniffle for a few weeks. So maybe you’re carrying timber, smoked and drank for a portion of your life (just guessing) but so what. It’s an increased risk but nowhere near a death sentence.

For what it’s worth, I condemn the personal attacks on you. You’ve said some (what I would consider to be) stupid things and I think you’ve intentionally been antagonistic in the past but it’s all part of a debate and nothing is advanced from people being nasty to each other. I’ve got no issue with attacking people’s words and actions but rounding on them as an individual and name-calling over a forum when we all barely know each other is imo a step too far. I’m sure I’ve been guilty of it myself at one time or another. I think in people’s defence, frustration levels are high and it doesn’t take much to push someone over the edge.

[JagLover]

markyb_lcy said:

I’ve got no issue with attacking people’s words and actions but rounding on them as an individual and name-calling over a forum when we all barely know each other is imo a step too far. I’m sure I’ve been guilty of it myself at one time or another. I think in people’s defence, frustration levels are high and it doesn’t take much to push someone over the edge.

and true enough on that last point.

Very frustrating to hear it declared we are "certain to head into another lockdown". Why?, and on what basis?, as all the evidence points to it not being required.

[croyde]

Eff me! I have a 1 in a 100 chance of dying in the next 12 months. Those are not good odds in my book, but at least it'll be non-covid.

And there's me thinking that it's highly likely that I'll win the lottery at some point

[RSTurboPaul]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

How can the ranges on those R rates being taken even slightly seriously??

The Sun article said:

The R rate regional breakdown

The estimated reproduction number has risen to 1.6 during October from 1.2 in the prior round of the study, Imperial College London experts have warned.

Estimates for R are shown as a range, and the true values are likely to lie within this range. The R rate is shown in bold, while the range is in brackets.

South East: 2.34 (1.36-3.61)
North East: 0.57 (0.07 - 1.63)
North West: 1.21 (0.72 - 1.84)
Yorkshire and The Humber: 1.54 (0.84 - 2.47)
East Midlands: 1.4 (0.8 - 2.23)
West Midlands: 1.81 (0.96 - 2.98)
East of England: 2.18 (1.15 - 3.70)
London: 2.86 (1.47 - 4.87)
South West: 2.06 (0.89 - 3.79)

So using the North East range, 1,000 people with Covid could be passing it on to only 7 people, or they could be passing it on to 1,630 people?

That's just a joke.

[grumbledoak]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

Oh look, Imperial again. How is their vaccine coming along anyway? Needs a bit more time?

[Skyrocket21]

andy_s said:

ash73 said:

21st Century Man said:

This is from Spain, but I found it interesting, no idea as to the scientific accuracy, but it seems to be fairly obvious common sense.

https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-10-28/a-ro...

At what size does an aerosol become a droplet?

Do all size ranges transmit the virus?

I doubt homemade masks protect against <100?m particles.

Brownian motion.

I think this is a brilliant demonstration of how this virus spreads indoors. And why there should have been a huge push to install commercial HEPA filtered air purifiers in confined spaces, i.e. pubs cafes etc etc. It's why the "eat out to help out" was such a bad idea. And wearing a face shield instead of a mask is so ridiculous it's just laughable.

[Elysium]

Lotobear said:

Boringvolvodriver said:

My thoughts exactly!

Going against the government

That said I have made a donation to the cause to try and change the balance

They need to get Sumption on board!

Sumption is a member and he spoke at the official launch.

[isaldiri]

RSTurboPaul said:

So using the North East range, 1,000 people with Covid could be passing it on to only 7 people, or they could be passing it on to 1,630 people?

That's just a joke.

It's just an accelerated interim report. A more precise final one will be published in a couple of weeks which should have much tighter confidence intervals and ranges.

Nevertheless, the react survey is roughly in line with everything else, the ons surveys, the Cambridge MRC unit's estimate and the govt own sage estimates. All are showing the same thing, a rise in prevalence.

[Elysium]

grumbledoak said:

anonymous said:

[redacted]

Oh look, Imperial again. How is their vaccine coming along anyway? Needs a bit more time?

"cases are doubling every 9 days"

No they are not. The orange line is 26 day doubling of cases after correction for the number of tests.

Edited by Elysium on Thursday 29th October 17:01

[Alucidnation]

markyb_lcy said:

Alucidnation said:

To be honest, (and i am sure i am not the only one), I just don't know what to think anymore.

If i get CV19 - there is a high probability that I won't survive it.

Would i have a vaccine if there was one available? - Yes, and I would hope there is less chance of that killing me than CV19.

However, having said all that, I am not staying home any more than I would normally, but when i do go out, I use hand sanitiser, and wear a mask etc.

Fair enough on that first point, I’m sure on all sides of this people are bewildered. I know I am.

If you have any level of fear of your safety with regard to the vaccine then I honestly can’t understand your logic. You’re not destined to be infected, and even if you are, given your age, unless you have a specific condition that increases your vulnerability, then the chances are it will be a sniffle for a few weeks. So maybe you’re carrying timber, smoked and drank for a portion of your life (just guessing) but so what. It’s an increased risk but nowhere near a death sentence.

For what it’s worth, I condemn the personal attacks on you. You’ve said some (what I would consider to be) stupid things and I think you’ve intentionally been antagonistic in the past but it’s all part of a debate and nothing is advanced from people being nasty to each other. I’ve got no issue with attacking people’s words and actions but rounding on them as an individual and name-calling over a forum when we all barely know each other is imo a step too far. I’m sure I’ve been guilty of it myself at one time or another. I think in people’s defence, frustration levels are high and it doesn’t take much to push someone over the edge.

Thanks all.


Mark, indeed, it is all very frustrating, and i don't pretend i am unaffected by it (family etc), but, as i have said before, unless people are going to carry out a serious protest and revolt, it is all hot air, bluster and internet big balls.

Many posters on here are very vocal about resisting and sticking it to da man, but at the end of the day they probably carry on and comply anyway when they are out and about.

Second lockdown? I fking hope not as i have younger members of my family who would be affected by it, with potential issues as a result.


So, whilst the likes of Gary and the like think i am troll etc etc, they haven't got a fking clue about me, or my life (except the bits i have posted about ).

[RSTurboPaul]

isaldiri said:

RSTurboPaul said:

So using the North East range, 1,000 people with Covid could be passing it on to only 7 people, or they could be passing it on to 1,630 people?

That's just a joke.

It's just an accelerated interim report. A more precise final one will be published in a couple of weeks which should have much tighter confidence intervals and ranges.

Nevertheless, the react survey is roughly in line with everything else, the ons surveys, the Cambridge MRC unit's estimate and the govt own sage estimates. All are showing the same thing, a rise in prevalence.

Thanks for the reply


I think this comes back to one of the issues at hand - in that decisions are being made based on data that is incomplete or shaky, decisions that have huge negative effects, and while I accept the possibility that 'something must be done' and 'we cannot wait', it seems as though any decisions being made cannot possible be backed-down from, and the data appears to be manipulated to suit the desired outcomes, so having any confidence in all of it is difficult.

[RSTurboPaul]

Alucidnation said:

markyb_lcy said:

Alucidnation said:

To be honest, (and i am sure i am not the only one), I just don't know what to think anymore.

If i get CV19 - there is a high probability that I won't survive it.

Would i have a vaccine if there was one available? - Yes, and I would hope there is less chance of that killing me than CV19.

However, having said all that, I am not staying home any more than I would normally, but when i do go out, I use hand sanitiser, and wear a mask etc.

Fair enough on that first point, I’m sure on all sides of this people are bewildered. I know I am.

If you have any level of fear of your safety with regard to the vaccine then I honestly can’t understand your logic. You’re not destined to be infected, and even if you are, given your age, unless you have a specific condition that increases your vulnerability, then the chances are it will be a sniffle for a few weeks. So maybe you’re carrying timber, smoked and drank for a portion of your life (just guessing) but so what. It’s an increased risk but nowhere near a death sentence.

For what it’s worth, I condemn the personal attacks on you. You’ve said some (what I would consider to be) stupid things and I think you’ve intentionally been antagonistic in the past but it’s all part of a debate and nothing is advanced from people being nasty to each other. I’ve got no issue with attacking people’s words and actions but rounding on them as an individual and name-calling over a forum when we all barely know each other is imo a step too far. I’m sure I’ve been guilty of it myself at one time or another. I think in people’s defence, frustration levels are high and it doesn’t take much to push someone over the edge.

Thanks all.


Mark, indeed, it is all very frustrating, and i don't pretend i am unaffected by it (family etc), but, as i have said before, unless people are going to carry out a serious protest and revolt, it is all hot air, bluster and internet big balls.

Many posters on here are very vocal about resisting and sticking it to da man, but at the end of the day they probably carry on and comply anyway when they are out and about.

Second lockdown? I fking hope not as i have younger members of my family who would be affected by it, with potential issues as a result.


So, whilst the likes of Gary and the like think i am troll etc etc, they haven't got a fking clue about me, or my life (except the bits i have posted about ).

This sort of 'tone' / reply is much less combative than usual and therefore welcome


re: putting up any sort of fight, the general public are extremely averse to the risk of getting a criminal record for protesting, so I am not confident that we will see said people on the streets, and as the MPs seem to be totally useless bar a couple of vocal dissenters, I cannot see how 'the resistance' is going to be formed until Furlough tapers off further and unemployment rises and people start losing their homes, especially amongst the young, for whom life prospects now appear to be, to put it bluntly, fked.

Edited by RSTurboPaul on Thursday 29th October 17:16

[Taylor James]

Alucidnation said:

markyb_lcy said:

Alucidnation said:

To be honest, (and i am sure i am not the only one), I just don't know what to think anymore.

If i get CV19 - there is a high probability that I won't survive it.

Would i have a vaccine if there was one available? - Yes, and I would hope there is less chance of that killing me than CV19.

However, having said all that, I am not staying home any more than I would normally, but when i do go out, I use hand sanitiser, and wear a mask etc.

Fair enough on that first point, I’m sure on all sides of this people are bewildered. I know I am.

If you have any level of fear of your safety with regard to the vaccine then I honestly can’t understand your logic. You’re not destined to be infected, and even if you are, given your age, unless you have a specific condition that increases your vulnerability, then the chances are it will be a sniffle for a few weeks. So maybe you’re carrying timber, smoked and drank for a portion of your life (just guessing) but so what. It’s an increased risk but nowhere near a death sentence.

For what it’s worth, I condemn the personal attacks on you. You’ve said some (what I would consider to be) stupid things and I think you’ve intentionally been antagonistic in the past but it’s all part of a debate and nothing is advanced from people being nasty to each other. I’ve got no issue with attacking people’s words and actions but rounding on them as an individual and name-calling over a forum when we all barely know each other is imo a step too far. I’m sure I’ve been guilty of it myself at one time or another. I think in people’s defence, frustration levels are high and it doesn’t take much to push someone over the edge.

Thanks all.


Mark, indeed, it is all very frustrating, and i don't pretend i am unaffected by it (family etc), but, as i have said before, unless people are going to carry out a serious protest and revolt, it is all hot air, bluster and internet big balls.

Many posters on here are very vocal about resisting and sticking it to da man, but at the end of the day they probably carry on and comply anyway when they are out and about.

Second lockdown? I fking hope not as i have younger members of my family who would be affected by it, with potential issues as a result.


So, whilst the likes of Gary and the like think i am troll etc etc, they haven't got a fking clue about me, or my life (except the bits i have posted about ).

You really only have yourself to blame. When so many people regard you as a troll and when your posting style tends to be one liners, you can hardly be surprised at some of the feedback you've received. It's quite telling that one of the very few times I've seen you post more than one line or a few words, it's when you haven't liked being on the receiving end. My advice would be stop trying to provoke people if you can't handle the reactions.

Edited by Taylor James on Thursday 29th October 18:43

[Alucidnation]

Taylor James said:

Alucidnation said:

markyb_lcy said:

Alucidnation said:

To be honest, (and i am sure i am not the only one), I just don't know what to think anymore.

If i get CV19 - there is a high probability that I won't survive it.

Would i have a vaccine if there was one available? - Yes, and I would hope there is less chance of that killing me than CV19.

However, having said all that, I am not staying home any more than I would normally, but when i do go out, I use hand sanitiser, and wear a mask etc.

Fair enough on that first point, I’m sure on all sides of this people are bewildered. I know I am.

If you have any level of fear of your safety with regard to the vaccine then I honestly can’t understand your logic. You’re not destined to be infected, and even if you are, given your age, unless you have a specific condition that increases your vulnerability, then the chances are it will be a sniffle for a few weeks. So maybe you’re carrying timber, smoked and drank for a portion of your life (just guessing) but so what. It’s an increased risk but nowhere near a death sentence.

For what it’s worth, I condemn the personal attacks on you. You’ve said some (what I would consider to be) stupid things and I think you’ve intentionally been antagonistic in the past but it’s all part of a debate and nothing is advanced from people being nasty to each other. I’ve got no issue with attacking people’s words and actions but rounding on them as an individual and name-calling over a forum when we all barely know each other is imo a step too far. I’m sure I’ve been guilty of it myself at one time or another. I think in people’s defence, frustration levels are high and it doesn’t take much to push someone over the edge.

Thanks all.


Mark, indeed, it is all very frustrating, and i don't pretend i am unaffected by it (family etc), but, as i have said before, unless people are going to carry out a serious protest and revolt, it is all hot air, bluster and internet big balls.

Many posters on here are very vocal about resisting and sticking it to da man, but at the end of the day they probably carry on and comply anyway when they are out and about.

Second lockdown? I fking hope not as i have younger members of my family who would be affected by it, with potential issues as a result.


So, whilst the likes of Gary and the like think i am troll etc etc, they haven't got a fking clue about me, or my life (except the bits i have posted about ).

You really only have yourself to blame. When so many people regard you as a troll and when your posting style tends to be one liners, you can hardly be surprised at some of the feedback you've received. It's quite telling that one of the very times I've seen you post more than one line or a few words, it's when you haven't liked being on the receiving end. My advice would be stop trying to provoke people if you can't handle the reactions.

I can handle anything thrown at me and will continue to do so but when someone calls me a for saying something I never did (and i have certainly never labelled someone the same), I will say something about it.

Anyhoo,

As you were.

[powerstroke]

I suppose the most worrying thing for governments worldwide not just ours is people realising that this covid isn't really that serious for people under about sixty ,
they must be hoping for the" vaccine" before the cat is out of the bag , otherwise they will
look silly and get some heat for the massive overreaction ....

[CAH706]

Elysium said:

"cases are doubling every 9 days"

No they are not. The orange line is 26 day doubling of cases after correction for the number of tests.

Edited by Elysium on Thursday 29th October 17:01

I find your data insight really fascinating and very insightful. Thanks for posting

[ORD]

CAH706 said:

I find your data insight really fascinating and very insightful. Thanks for posting

The 9 day doubling thing is rank dishonest. But I’m not even surprised anymore.

[Lotobear]

RSTurboPaul said:

I really struggle to believe the graphics / information on that page.

One person breathing aerosols in a pub will infect basically the entire pub within 4 hours (or whatever)? The modelling might say it is true but it seems totally unrealistic.

Likewise, the scaremongering example at the end of one person at a choir rehearsal apparently infecting 60 others and two of those dying seems to fail to acknowledge that the people involved could easily already have had it in their system, have caught it before/after the event, caught it at home from family...

Edited by RSTurboPaul on Thursday 29th October 15:57

That is really interesting. I am in a position do a live test, and here's the true story:

My daughter is staying with us at the moment - she's a nurse. Her new boyfriend came to stay last Friday and we (wifey and I) entertained them that evening - made a nice meal, several bottles of wine nattered aorund the table then retired to the Lounge for drinks. We spent well over 4 hours together in a closed, unventilated, environment. Stuart gets up the following morning - can't taste or smell and he's really upset as he thinks he's brought the death virus into our house - books a test and off he goes back down south tail between his legs, a lovely lad and we both felt really sorry for him.

Sunday his test is positive - wifey is worried (she's NHS), so we are all 'isolating' (me taking it a bit less seriously but no MTB ing last night). So by that graphic we are dead meat, at least one of us is nailed on to get it. So far though absolutely ziltch, nadda, nowt right as rain.

We will see how things develop this week but we are now 6 days from very close contact with a CV19 case and we are all fine.

PS: we are all over 50

[RSTurboPaul]

Further to that link to The Sun earlier, they seem to be doing some remarkably empirical / data-driven reporting.

e.g.:

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/13051647/covid-2nd-w...

The Sun said:

THE SECOND wave of Covid-19 has claimed the lives of 17 victims under the age of 40 as the elderly face the greatest risk from the killer bug, new data has revealed.

The virus is now 100 times as deadly for the elderly as it is for the young and experts have stated that “age is overwhelmingly the most important factor”, when it comes to the illness.

..

The NHS data shows that including all deaths in private homes as well as hospitals, just 17 people under the age of 40 died between the end of August and the middle of October in England.

These deaths were seen in the period between July 25 and October 28 and were mainly across the 20-39 age group.

...

In contrast 1,425 patients over the age of 80 died while 1,093 died who were between the age of 60 and 79.

The elderly account for 94 per cent of hospital deaths.

...



Last week it was revealed that Covid was the 19th most common killer in September, accounting for just 1.7 per cent of all deaths.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/13005435/covid-19th-...

Of the 39,827 deaths registered in September in England, 1.7 per cent, or 690 deaths, involved coronavirus, and in Wales the figure was 1.3 per cent of the 2,610 deaths, or 35 fatalities.

Figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) also revealed that most causes of death were lower than the five year average.

Comparing ONS stats with NHS data and and the ONS states that there were just 247 deaths among working-age people since the end of summer - this in comparison to 2,026 among pensioners.

...

Despite an increase in infections the NHS data shows that of 2,677 people who died with the virus between September 1 and this week, 0.5 per cent were under the age of 40 and 52 per cent were over the age of 80.

The ONS states that with deaths in private homes as well as hospitals there were just 17 people under for those who died with Covid between August 28 and October 16.

This accounts for 0.8 per cent of 2,061 deaths across England and Wales.

In the over-70s group, there were 1,701 deaths, and those 80 to 84 had the highest with 404 deaths.

...


At the peak of the pandemic more than 3,000 people a day were being admitted to hospital in the UK.

At present this sits at around 1,150.

Admissions are nowhere near what they were at the peak, and are graduation rising - doubling every two weeks.

To put this in perspective, in normal times around 1,000 people are admitted to hospital a day due to respiratory issues.

The interactive maps using data from www.coronavirus.data.gov.uk are also very useful: