CV19 - Cure worse than the disease? (Vol 5)
Discussion
ash73 said:
It's inevitable we'll continue to do lockdowns until the money runs out, no politician has the balls to do anything else and the public are scared out of their wits.
But eventually there'll be no money left, then we'll have to get real. I'm expecting a speech something like this in the Spring, just substitute vaccine for missiles...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oFYsgEjIDvs
More seriously, I think it's going to be a tough winter but we'll come out of it with herd immunity, then things will gradually get back to normal.
Which public are scared out of there wits ?But eventually there'll be no money left, then we'll have to get real. I'm expecting a speech something like this in the Spring, just substitute vaccine for missiles...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oFYsgEjIDvs
More seriously, I think it's going to be a tough winter but we'll come out of it with herd immunity, then things will gradually get back to normal.
The keyworkers who never worked from home ?
The public that flocked to the beaches when the weather was nice ?
The public who ate out to help out when asked to ?
The public who's children are back at school ?
The public who started uni ?
Elysium said:
The Spectator have published SAGES reasonable worst case scenario for the winter:
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/classified-cov...
Use Google incognito if it appears paywalled.
This is dated July 2020, which implies it has been deliberately withheld from publication with the other papers due to its sensitivity.
The interesting points for me are:
1. They are adding in 30% non-COVID excess deaths
2. The assumption is that we have some sort of further measures at the end of Nov, which are kept in place until March.
This seems to be the document that has been controlling our freedoms for months and is likely to do so for many more.
They talk about 2.4% of cases requiring hospitalisation, which is more reasonable than the original 4% assumption, but still a bit high. They also mention 359k cases in hospital implying that the anticipate 14.9 million people will be infected between July and March.
This graph is interesting:
The flat spot is presumably the modelling of a ‘circuit breaker’, which we know did not work in NI or Scotland and we will find out soon if it worked in Wales.
In fairness, If you factor out the flat spot, then our current scenario of 1000 admissions and 200 deaths per day is not far off their thinking. However, they saw this happening at 30,000 infections per week, whereas we are have 153k positive tests reported in the last 7 days.
So the Govt knew for months that this was going to happen, the circuit breaker idea has been kicking around since the summer and they deliberately kept it from us.
The thing that give me hope here is the discrepancy between the severity of the impact they predicted and the comparably low level of infections. I think they could easily be out by a factor of 5.
Watch for the peak!
Well what is more interesting is what is not stated in the assumptions behind the modelling, what measure holds R=1 Sept to Nov that then fails to hold R=1 from Nov onwards? The mooted short circuit break wouldn't hold R flat, if the measure worked R would drop below 1 due to restricted contacts then raise back above 1 once released. Maintaining it for 3 months should see a dropping infection curve not a flat one. This makes me suspect the numbers are not reasonable. https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/classified-cov...
Use Google incognito if it appears paywalled.
This is dated July 2020, which implies it has been deliberately withheld from publication with the other papers due to its sensitivity.
The interesting points for me are:
1. They are adding in 30% non-COVID excess deaths
2. The assumption is that we have some sort of further measures at the end of Nov, which are kept in place until March.
This seems to be the document that has been controlling our freedoms for months and is likely to do so for many more.
They talk about 2.4% of cases requiring hospitalisation, which is more reasonable than the original 4% assumption, but still a bit high. They also mention 359k cases in hospital implying that the anticipate 14.9 million people will be infected between July and March.
This graph is interesting:
The flat spot is presumably the modelling of a ‘circuit breaker’, which we know did not work in NI or Scotland and we will find out soon if it worked in Wales.
In fairness, If you factor out the flat spot, then our current scenario of 1000 admissions and 200 deaths per day is not far off their thinking. However, they saw this happening at 30,000 infections per week, whereas we are have 153k positive tests reported in the last 7 days.
So the Govt knew for months that this was going to happen, the circuit breaker idea has been kicking around since the summer and they deliberately kept it from us.
The thing that give me hope here is the discrepancy between the severity of the impact they predicted and the comparably low level of infections. I think they could easily be out by a factor of 5.
Watch for the peak!
Moreover why does the curve then take off in Nov? relaxation of restrictions or seasonality? The generally reduced number of social contacts (NPI's) if they work should severely reduce seasonal effects because each person has fewer opportunities for exposure.
Finally the analysis does not state a reason for the drop in infections in march onwards, either suddenly the restrictions start working after not for four months or the model is saying that HI does work and the threashold has been crossed. The noted assumption that immunity is persistent so each recovered person is removed from a susceptible pool is interesting and surely means that Hancock has flat out lied to electorate over HI. He can't have not seen and not been briefed on this document.
Maybe he is just a thick as s
t?Personally my money is on the ZOE app having a better handle on where CV19 is in country, the data certainly showed where the first peak was heading before the actual and so far hospital / death / found cases seem to have followed the ZOE data with a lag.
Elysium said:
markyb_lcy said:
Thin White Duke said:
I was going to come on here tonight and ask for opinions on forming a true anti lockdown movement, however I see that there is something called Time for Recovery.
Does anyone know who is behind this and does it include any heavy hitters? Will it achieve anything, given the Great Barrington Declaration seems to have fallen by the wayside?
I’m also looking for a movement to get behind, but I can’t offer my support, financial or otherwise, until I’m sure of the personalities in the background.Does anyone know who is behind this and does it include any heavy hitters? Will it achieve anything, given the Great Barrington Declaration seems to have fallen by the wayside?
This outfit publish nothing on their site about that.
One would have to dig through the directors names available from Companies House ...
https://find-and-update.company-information.servic...
A couple of them appear to have directorships of other companies related to marketing and management consultancy.
In terms of public figures, they have Lord Sumption, Harvey Goldsmith, Karol Sikora, Emma Kenny, Ann Brees. Retweets today by Sue Cook and Right Said Fred.
It doesn't seem to be political, beyond this current crisis.
I'll look into some of those names. I don't know Kenny or Brees.
egor110 said:
Which public are scared out of there wits ?
The keyworkers who never worked from home ?
The public that flocked to the beaches when the weather was nice ?
The public who ate out to help out when asked to ?
The public who's children are back at school ?
The public who started uni ?
It's a fair point. I would say the majority (and it could be a silent one) are not scared of the virus. But why are we/they still going happily along with the restrictions on our freedoms? The keyworkers who never worked from home ?
The public that flocked to the beaches when the weather was nice ?
The public who ate out to help out when asked to ?
The public who's children are back at school ?
The public who started uni ?
b0rk said:
Well what is more interesting is what is not stated in the assumptions behind the modelling, what measure holds R=1 Sept to Nov that then fails to hold R=1 from Nov onwards? The mooted short circuit break wouldn't hold R flat, if the measure worked R would drop below 1 due to restricted contacts then raise back above 1 once released. Maintaining it for 3 months should see a dropping infection curve not a flat one. This makes me suspect the numbers are not reasonable.
It didn't model a circuit breaker type full lockdown. Oct holds steady R~1 due to 'increased social guidance' ie extra social distancing stuff perhaps tier2/3 type restrictions or rule of 6. If it took that into account it would have assumed R<1.Deep Thought said:
We were told that the reasons behind the original lockdown were to give the NHS time to prepare and to understand more about the virus and how best to treat it.
We do now know better how to treat it but it seems the opportunity to prepare the NHS were otherwise squandered. We never really seem to have come with a "plan" as to how we'd deal with a second wave and low and behold now its here, its the economy and society thats having to suffer again.
Why are hospitals so close to capacity when we are supposed to have these Nightingale Hospitals stood up again? Why arent people being diverted directly to Nightingales to allow hospitals to otherwise function? Why am i seeing warnings about how oxygen may have to be rationed in hospitals (Altnagelvin, Northern Ireland for one) even though oxygen seems to be one of the basic requirements for successful COVID hospital treatment?
If they're asking us to go in to lockdown again (and lets be honest, it does seem that the propaganda machine is moving us nicely that direction) then whats it for this time? From what i can see its just to get the number of "cases" down, with no other changes going to be made to prevent another lockdown when the infection rate goes back up again.
WHY have we so few ICU beds? Here in Northern Ireland we have something like 110 for the entire country - per capita thats among the worst in Europe and certainly in the lowest quartile of the developed world). Mainland UK isnt much better. In a typical winter we see maybe 90% occupancy of those. Did no think, "fk, we're going to run out of beds here lads very quickly during any sort of second wave"?
If they can say "we need to go in to lockdown but by the time we are out of lockdown and cases rise again we will have done X, Y, Z which will prevent our hospitals being overrun" fine. But a lockdown, then another lockdown again, then another lockdown again??
We're always a bit shafted for capacity in Northern Ireland hospitals in the winter months though. My wife every single winter gets funded to run "winter pressure surgeries" and for example, this time last year, the guy that works across the desk from me - his granny had to wait in a side ward off A&E in the Ulster for over a week until a bed came free in a normal ward. We do now know better how to treat it but it seems the opportunity to prepare the NHS were otherwise squandered. We never really seem to have come with a "plan" as to how we'd deal with a second wave and low and behold now its here, its the economy and society thats having to suffer again.
Why are hospitals so close to capacity when we are supposed to have these Nightingale Hospitals stood up again? Why arent people being diverted directly to Nightingales to allow hospitals to otherwise function? Why am i seeing warnings about how oxygen may have to be rationed in hospitals (Altnagelvin, Northern Ireland for one) even though oxygen seems to be one of the basic requirements for successful COVID hospital treatment?
If they're asking us to go in to lockdown again (and lets be honest, it does seem that the propaganda machine is moving us nicely that direction) then whats it for this time? From what i can see its just to get the number of "cases" down, with no other changes going to be made to prevent another lockdown when the infection rate goes back up again.
WHY have we so few ICU beds? Here in Northern Ireland we have something like 110 for the entire country - per capita thats among the worst in Europe and certainly in the lowest quartile of the developed world). Mainland UK isnt much better. In a typical winter we see maybe 90% occupancy of those. Did no
think, "fk, we're going to run out of beds here lads very quickly during any sort of second wave"?If they can say "we need to go in to lockdown but by the time we are out of lockdown and cases rise again we will have done X, Y, Z which will prevent our hospitals being overrun" fine. But a lockdown, then another lockdown again, then another lockdown again??
Saw that on the BBC news tonight about the oxygen shortages, but they did mention at the end of the news spiel that the Trust commented that oxygen capacity was fine and they weren't concerned. It felt to me like more BBC grim reaper reporting tbh.
Lockdowns are not the answer. Rebuilding some of the bed/treatment capacity that has been systematically removed over the years is surely a sensible thing.
Finally, thank god the schools are going back here on Monday. I was sure that they would extend the holidays. Would have been interesting to have been a fly on the wall of whatever conversations went on around that decision.
ORD said:
Schools remains the real test for me. Anyone saying they should be shut may as well just declare himself a moron or an evil st and be done with it. It’s beyond reasonable argument. The idea of harming children to protect the elderly is obscene.
Although, if case rates keep increasing (with the inevitable result of whole bubbles being sent home for two weeks each time) the end result is the same anyway. Secondary school attendance is down to 82% already. t and be done with it. It’s beyond reasonable argument. The idea of harming children to protect the elderly is obscene. sim72 said:
ORD said:
Schools remains the real test for me. Anyone saying they should be shut may as well just declare himself a moron or an evil st and be done with it. It’s beyond reasonable argument. The idea of harming children to protect the elderly is obscene.
Although, if case rates keep increasing (with the inevitable result of whole bubbles being sent home for two weeks each time) the end result is the same anyway. Secondary school attendance is down to 82% already. t and be done with it. It’s beyond reasonable argument. The idea of harming children to protect the elderly is obscene. smashing said:
sim72 said:
ORD said:
Schools remains the real test for me. Anyone saying they should be shut may as well just declare himself a moron or an evil st and be done with it. It’s beyond reasonable argument. The idea of harming children to protect the elderly is obscene.
Although, if case rates keep increasing (with the inevitable result of whole bubbles being sent home for two weeks each time) the end result is the same anyway. Secondary school attendance is down to 82% already. t and be done with it. It’s beyond reasonable argument. The idea of harming children to protect the elderly is obscene. skinnyman said:
Flip me, looks like a class movie!! Ironic that we can't even go the cinema to watch it!Elysium said:
markyb_lcy said:
Thin White Duke said:
I was going to come on here tonight and ask for opinions on forming a true anti lockdown movement, however I see that there is something called Time for Recovery.
Does anyone know who is behind this and does it include any heavy hitters? Will it achieve anything, given the Great Barrington Declaration seems to have fallen by the wayside?
I’m also looking for a movement to get behind, but I can’t offer my support, financial or otherwise, until I’m sure of the personalities in the background.Does anyone know who is behind this and does it include any heavy hitters? Will it achieve anything, given the Great Barrington Declaration seems to have fallen by the wayside?
This outfit publish nothing on their site about that.
One would have to dig through the directors names available from Companies House ...
https://find-and-update.company-information.servic...
A couple of them appear to have directorships of other companies related to marketing and management consultancy.
In terms of public figures, they have Lord Sumption, Harvey Goldsmith, Karol Sikora, Emma Kenny, Ann Brees. Retweets today by Sue Cook and Right Said Fred.
It doesn't seem to be political, beyond this current crisis.
It took me a while to find the link to the 'Time for Recovery’ campaign run by Restore the Balance Limited because it's buried several pages back in Elysium's original post made earlier this afternoon, so to those that missed it here's the link together with the Youtube video:
http://timeforrecovery.org/
Please forward this info onto anyone you feel might be interested
isaldiri said:
It didn't model a circuit breaker type full lockdown. Oct holds steady R~1 due to 'increased social guidance' ie extra social distancing stuff perhaps tier2/3 type restrictions or rule of 6. If it took that into account it would have assumed R<1.
Yes that's my point a circuit breaker wouldn't or shouldn't hold R~1. The document doesn't explain what package of measures is modelled as achieving R~1. My further point is that developing a package of NPI's that manages to practically hold R~1 doesn't seem possible. Indeed if it was possible then what external factot sees cases take off again in Nov requiring further measures. Moreover what is stopping said further measures from not seeing R<1.?
The reasonable, worst case assumption seems off mathematically unless the NPI's are basically magic which doesn't pass any reasonable sanity test.
sim72 said:
smashing said:
sim72 said:
ORD said:
Schools remains the real test for me. Anyone saying they should be shut may as well just declare himself a moron or an evil st and be done with it. It’s beyond reasonable argument. The idea of harming children to protect the elderly is obscene.
Although, if case rates keep increasing (with the inevitable result of whole bubbles being sent home for two weeks each time) the end result is the same anyway. Secondary school attendance is down to 82% already. t and be done with it. It’s beyond reasonable argument. The idea of harming children to protect the elderly is obscene. FT said:
In many communities it is no longer possible to do proper contact-tracing,” he said. “The infection numbers are just too high.
Officials in Berlin, one of the worst coronavirus hotspots in the country, said last week that they would now leave it up to infected individuals to self-isolate and inform all those they had come into contact with to get tested — the job that used to lie with the health authorities.
René Gottschalk, head of the health authority in Frankfurt, said he was taking a similar tack. His agency is now focusing on infected people who live with elderly relatives or sick partners, and ignoring outbreaks of the virus in young families, where it rarely leads to Covid-19. “Contact-tracing to the full extent is no longer possible,” he told ZDF TV last week.
But no, the UK is just crap... sighOfficials in Berlin, one of the worst coronavirus hotspots in the country, said last week that they would now leave it up to infected individuals to self-isolate and inform all those they had come into contact with to get tested — the job that used to lie with the health authorities.
René Gottschalk, head of the health authority in Frankfurt, said he was taking a similar tack. His agency is now focusing on infected people who live with elderly relatives or sick partners, and ignoring outbreaks of the virus in young families, where it rarely leads to Covid-19. “Contact-tracing to the full extent is no longer possible,” he told ZDF TV last week.
b0rk said:
Yes that's my point a circuit breaker wouldn't or shouldn't hold R~1.
The document doesn't explain what package of measures is modelled as achieving R~1. My further point is that developing a package of NPI's that manages to practically hold R~1 doesn't seem possible. Indeed if it was possible then what external factot sees cases take off again in Nov requiring further measures. Moreover what is stopping said further measures from not seeing R<1.?
The reasonable, worst case assumption seems off mathematically unless the NPI's are basically magic which doesn't pass any reasonable sanity test.
It's simply scenario modelling. The assumption that underpins it are some measures taken (whatever they might be don't really matter) are able to hold R at around 1 for a period of time before not being able to do so anymore and R increases to 1.5 for the rest of the winter.The document doesn't explain what package of measures is modelled as achieving R~1. My further point is that developing a package of NPI's that manages to practically hold R~1 doesn't seem possible. Indeed if it was possible then what external factot sees cases take off again in Nov requiring further measures. Moreover what is stopping said further measures from not seeing R<1.?
The reasonable, worst case assumption seems off mathematically unless the NPI's are basically magic which doesn't pass any reasonable sanity test.
it's not modelled as a prediction of what might actually happens but simply if R is X then Y, what is likely to happen. We haven't seen R hold at 1 but hold at around 1 2-1.5 probably for well over a month for example so you could argue so far they have underestimated what happens. It's not to say it necessarily continues to hold as per their scenario either.
Edited by isaldiri on Thursday 29th October 23:15
Thin White Duke said:
egor110 said:
Which public are scared out of there wits ?
The keyworkers who never worked from home ?
The public that flocked to the beaches when the weather was nice ?
The public who ate out to help out when asked to ?
The public who's children are back at school ?
The public who started uni ?
It's a fair point. I would say the majority (and it could be a silent one) are not scared of the virus. But why are we/they still going happily along with the restrictions on our freedoms? The keyworkers who never worked from home ?
The public that flocked to the beaches when the weather was nice ?
The public who ate out to help out when asked to ?
The public who's children are back at school ?
The public who started uni ?
You've been babbling on since march writting and emailing your mp who doesn't give a f
k about you .You and the rest of the noisy anti maskers are easy to ignore because your unwilling to do anything that demands the governments attention.
The anti gulf war protest , the countryside allowance the only way they got noticed was to shut down the capital and none of you lot on here are willing to do anything like that , and that's why you get ignored.
rich888 said:
Elysium said:
markyb_lcy said:
Thin White Duke said:
I was going to come on here tonight and ask for opinions on forming a true anti lockdown movement, however I see that there is something called Time for Recovery.
Does anyone know who is behind this and does it include any heavy hitters? Will it achieve anything, given the Great Barrington Declaration seems to have fallen by the wayside?
I’m also looking for a movement to get behind, but I can’t offer my support, financial or otherwise, until I’m sure of the personalities in the background.Does anyone know who is behind this and does it include any heavy hitters? Will it achieve anything, given the Great Barrington Declaration seems to have fallen by the wayside?
This outfit publish nothing on their site about that.
One would have to dig through the directors names available from Companies House ...
https://find-and-update.company-information.servic...
A couple of them appear to have directorships of other companies related to marketing and management consultancy.
In terms of public figures, they have Lord Sumption, Harvey Goldsmith, Karol Sikora, Emma Kenny, Ann Brees. Retweets today by Sue Cook and Right Said Fred.
It doesn't seem to be political, beyond this current crisis.
It took me a while to find the link to the 'Time for Recovery’ campaign run by Restore the Balance Limited because it's buried several pages back in Elysium's original post made earlier this afternoon, so to those that missed it here's the link together with the Youtube video:
http://timeforrecovery.org/
Please forward this info onto anyone you feel might be interested
Am sure that there are other people that might want to get involved in ending this sheer paranoia and madness, so please feel free to add to the list with a link if possible:
Dr Mike Yeadon - 1hr 48min podcast which has been uploaded onto Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sbMJoJ6i39k
Lord Sumption: - 1hr 21min (skip the first 5:20mins) 'Government by decree - Covid-19 and the Constitution' https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=amDv2gk8aa0
Ivor Cummins: - Oct 29th Crucial Viral Update: European Focus BUT Principles Universal! - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tq3AaceihtI
Prof John Lee - Amazing Debate on Lockdown Ideology versus Scientific Approach - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qgn4B2Iq2cg
egor110 said:
The anti gulf war protest , the countryside allowance the only way they got noticed was to shut down the capital and none of you lot on here are willing to do anything like that , and that's why you get ignored.
I didn't realise that the protests stopped the 2nd Iraq war or reinstated hunting.......egor110 said:
Because what's the alternative ?
You've been babbling on since march writting and emailing your mp who doesn't give a fk about you .
You and the rest of the noisy anti maskers are easy to ignore because your unwilling to do anything that demands the governments attention.
The anti gulf war protest , the countryside allowance the only way they got noticed was to shut down the capital and none of you lot on here are willing to do anything like that , and that's why you get ignored.
Not all of us are anti maskers - we just want a sensible approach to tackling the virus in a balanced way without causing undue suffering in every area. You've been babbling on since march writting and emailing your mp who doesn't give a f
k about you .You and the rest of the noisy anti maskers are easy to ignore because your unwilling to do anything that demands the governments attention.
The anti gulf war protest , the countryside allowance the only way they got noticed was to shut down the capital and none of you lot on here are willing to do anything like that , and that's why you get ignored.
Would be great to organize a protest but some of the restrictions put in place by our dictatorial government might make that a bit difficult........
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