CV19 - Cure worse than the disease? (Vol 5)
Discussion
Newc said:
I’ve said here here in the past I don’t think anyone has done proper mask research use in the general public ,only in clinical settings where they work. 
You can imagine it now,no one likes a mask,it’s not comfortable or natural,it itches,you fiddle with it,take it on and off, poor fabric ones that don’t get washed, touch the wet bit,touch a can of coke,tin of beans Then touch your mouth,nose or eyes etc
Now can you see the cross contamination?
Boringvolvodriver said:
egor110 said:
Because what's the alternative ?
You've been babbling on since march writting and emailing your mp who doesn't give a f
k about you .
You and the rest of the noisy anti maskers are easy to ignore because your unwilling to do anything that demands the governments attention.
The anti gulf war protest , the countryside allowance the only way they got noticed was to shut down the capital and none of you lot on here are willing to do anything like that , and that's why you get ignored.
Not all of us are anti maskers - we just want a sensible approach to tackling the virus in a balanced way without causing undue suffering in every area. You've been babbling on since march writting and emailing your mp who doesn't give a f
k about you .You and the rest of the noisy anti maskers are easy to ignore because your unwilling to do anything that demands the governments attention.
The anti gulf war protest , the countryside allowance the only way they got noticed was to shut down the capital and none of you lot on here are willing to do anything like that , and that's why you get ignored.
Would be great to organize a protest but some of the restrictions put in place by our dictatorial government might make that a bit difficult........
chrisgtx said:
I’ve said here here in the past I don’t think anyone has done proper mask research use in the general public ,only in clinical settings where they work.
You can imagine it now,no one likes a mask,it’s not comfortable or natural,it itches,you fiddle with it,take it on and off, poor fabric ones that don’t get washed, touch the wet bit,touch a can of coke,tin of beans Then touch your mouth,nose or eyes etc
Now can you see the cross contamination?
To be fair, stupid as the mask nonsense is, it likely isn't making things any worse but simply just not effective in what it's supposed to be doing. You can imagine it now,no one likes a mask,it’s not comfortable or natural,it itches,you fiddle with it,take it on and off, poor fabric ones that don’t get washed, touch the wet bit,touch a can of coke,tin of beans Then touch your mouth,nose or eyes etc
Now can you see the cross contamination?
The settings we seem to keep on getting outbreaks are hospitals, schools, care homes and residential homes. End up in a (very) extended period of time then mask or no mask you'll get it. If that's not the case of being together in an enclosed space for a long period of time then it utterly doesn't seem to make the blind bit of difference as you're pretty bloody unlikely to get it anyway.
Newc said:
Herd immunity seen in the North Italian areas that had the biggest spread of cases in the spring.
Not my words Lynn, the words of the Economist.
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/10/3...
The valleys of the shadow of death
Italian towns hit hardest by covid-19 are doing better now
Municipal data reveal signs of partial population-level immunity
Graphic detail
Oct 31st 2020 edition
So per your post we need 0.6% population fatality rate to start showing some sign of herd immunity....? Not my words Lynn, the words of the Economist.
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/10/3...
The valleys of the shadow of death
Italian towns hit hardest by covid-19 are doing better now
Municipal data reveal signs of partial population-level immunity
Graphic detail
Oct 31st 2020 edition
I thought we were supposed to all mostly be immune with hardly anyone susceptible anymore with <0.1% population fatality rate...
chrisgtx said:
Newc said:
I’ve said here here in the past I don’t think anyone has done proper mask research use in the general public ,only in clinical settings where they work. You can imagine it now,no one likes a mask,it’s not comfortable or natural,it itches,you fiddle with it,take it on and off, poor fabric ones that don’t get washed, touch the wet bit,touch a can of coke,tin of beans Then touch your mouth,nose or eyes etc
Now can you see the cross contamination?
FlabbyMidgets said:
Pupp said:
See Google through a UK ISP now seem to be suppressing search results on that new lobby group. (a la the GBD); that, to me, is very concerning
Can't find it on Google myself at all, tried a few different search termsRSTurboPaul said:
I wonder if it would be possible to increase the capacity of medical facilities temporarily to deal with a wave of infections?
Perhaps some temporary facilities could be built?
Perhaps they could be located at large venues that will be unused thanks to being closed 'because Covid'?
Perhaps we could name them after a medical figure from history in order to give them a catchy and memorable name that implies we care?
Of course, it would be totally stupid to build such facilities at vast cost, then not use them and mothball them / close them down during a summer period where infections are lower generally...
In fairness, they have re-opened the Manchester one as hospital beds are filling up. Perhaps some temporary facilities could be built?
Perhaps they could be located at large venues that will be unused thanks to being closed 'because Covid'?
Perhaps we could name them after a medical figure from history in order to give them a catchy and memorable name that implies we care?
Of course, it would be totally stupid to build such facilities at vast cost, then not use them and mothball them / close them down during a summer period where infections are lower generally...
isaldiri said:
It's simply scenario modelling. The assumption that underpins it are some measures taken (whatever they might be don't really matter) are able to hold R at around 1 for a period of time before not being able to do so anymore and R increases to 1.5 for the rest of the winter.
it's not modelled as a prediction of what might actually happens but simply if R is X then Y, what is likely to happen. We haven't seen R hold at 1 but hold at around 1 2-1.5 probably for well over a month for example so you could argue so far they have underestimated what happens. It's not to say it necessarily continues to hold as per their scenario either.
Aren't we far into arguing semantics on this now? it's not modelled as a prediction of what might actually happens but simply if R is X then Y, what is likely to happen. We haven't seen R hold at 1 but hold at around 1 2-1.5 probably for well over a month for example so you could argue so far they have underestimated what happens. It's not to say it necessarily continues to hold as per their scenario either.
Edited by isaldiri on Thursday 29th October 23:15
For a scenario to be reasonable as a tool to guide planning don't the assumptions within the scenario have to be realistic, else the output isn't reasonable and thus not complaint with the brief?
If your assumptions are not possible or practical then as tool for planning the scenario isn't usable.
Sure it's not a prediction as scenario modelling can't predict but is it provided contextually a reasonable worst case planning brief. Which the document notes and states Cabinet Office Civil Contingencies Secretariat and COVID-19 Taskforce are advising should be used by HMG departments for planning.
I would expect there to be a separate document outlining what package of NPI's are modelled as resulting in an R rate that with reasonable level of confidence enables the RWCS to be achieved.
CrutyRammers said:
isaldiri said:
To be fair, stupid as the mask nonsense is, it likely isn't making things any worse but simply just not effective in what it's supposed to be doing.
Well, I think it is making things worse actually. It's causing plenty of societal division which isn't a good thing.I am just resigned to anything and everything the govt throws at me now. I hope for the best but genuinely expect the worst.
The only thing left I am angry about is what we are doing to our children.
It is inexcusable and bordering on evil.
I think this argument is the only one that is going to gain any traction with the herd and bring about any change.
The only thing left I am angry about is what we are doing to our children.
It is inexcusable and bordering on evil.
I think this argument is the only one that is going to gain any traction with the herd and bring about any change.
isaldiri said:
CrutyRammers said:
isaldiri said:
To be fair, stupid as the mask nonsense is, it likely isn't making things any worse but simply just not effective in what it's supposed to be doing.
Well, I think it is making things worse actually. It's causing plenty of societal division which isn't a good thing.CrutyRammers said:
RSTurboPaul said:
I wonder if it would be possible to increase the capacity of medical facilities temporarily to deal with a wave of infections?
Perhaps some temporary facilities could be built?
Perhaps they could be located at large venues that will be unused thanks to being closed 'because Covid'?
Perhaps we could name them after a medical figure from history in order to give them a catchy and memorable name that implies we care?
Of course, it would be totally stupid to build such facilities at vast cost, then not use them and mothball them / close them down during a summer period where infections are lower generally...
In fairness, they have re-opened the Manchester one as hospital beds are filling up. Perhaps some temporary facilities could be built?
Perhaps they could be located at large venues that will be unused thanks to being closed 'because Covid'?
Perhaps we could name them after a medical figure from history in order to give them a catchy and memorable name that implies we care?
Of course, it would be totally stupid to build such facilities at vast cost, then not use them and mothball them / close them down during a summer period where infections are lower generally...
I'm not sure why they are still talking about 'we can't overwhelm the NHS' when there are, what, 30,000 extra beds in the nightingale facilities?!
NHS App to be made more sensitive, so that more people have to isolate:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/30/nhs-co...
And that's a 'tweak'??
Interesting to note also that...:
"The Telegraph understands that the Government is considering allowing a Christmas window in which families can meet, with lockdowns on either side of the festive period."
and
"It came as health officials told The Telegraph they are concerned that not enough people are coming forward for testing, meaning that the spread of transmission is not being tracked."
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/30/nhs-co...
Telegraph said:
The NHS contact tracing app will force more people into self-isolation after the algorithm was tweaked, officials have announced.
...
However, the technical changes to the NHS app – now downloaded by more than 19 million people, [19 million people!!] approximately 40 per cent of those with eligible phones – could send significantly enhanced numbers into de facto lockdown with no ministerial announcement.
...
On top of improvements to the app’s ability to judge proximity, officials have lowered the risk threshold which determines whether an alert is sent from a score of 900 to one of 120.
Reduced from 900 to 120?...
However, the technical changes to the NHS app – now downloaded by more than 19 million people, [19 million people!!] approximately 40 per cent of those with eligible phones – could send significantly enhanced numbers into de facto lockdown with no ministerial announcement.
...
On top of improvements to the app’s ability to judge proximity, officials have lowered the risk threshold which determines whether an alert is sent from a score of 900 to one of 120.
And that's a 'tweak'??
Interesting to note also that...:
"The Telegraph understands that the Government is considering allowing a Christmas window in which families can meet, with lockdowns on either side of the festive period."
and
"It came as health officials told The Telegraph they are concerned that not enough people are coming forward for testing, meaning that the spread of transmission is not being tracked."
haha! 
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/29/man-pa...
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/29/man-pa...
Telegraph said:
Man pays £6 to set up business so he can employ family and avoid 'rule of six'
A financial adviser has paid £6 to register as a business, meaning he can employ his family to avoid the "rule of six" restriction.
Fenn Settle, 28, has registered a consultancy business under his name so he can exploit exemptions which mean that gatherings for work are permitted even in areas under the highest tier of Covid restrictions.
It is the latest loophole to emerge after business lunches were found to be exempt from the restrictions on meeting indoors in hospitality venues.
...
He has registered "Fenn Settle Ltd" with Companies House and could "hire" family and friends on zero-hours contracts and invite them for gatherings at his home, the registered address of the business, which would be exempt from the restrictions.
Genius A financial adviser has paid £6 to register as a business, meaning he can employ his family to avoid the "rule of six" restriction.
Fenn Settle, 28, has registered a consultancy business under his name so he can exploit exemptions which mean that gatherings for work are permitted even in areas under the highest tier of Covid restrictions.
It is the latest loophole to emerge after business lunches were found to be exempt from the restrictions on meeting indoors in hospitality venues.
...
He has registered "Fenn Settle Ltd" with Companies House and could "hire" family and friends on zero-hours contracts and invite them for gatherings at his home, the registered address of the business, which would be exempt from the restrictions.
Interesting story on one variant of SARS-CoV-2 'unlike any other':
https://www.ft.com/content/2782655a-0441-4d38-bb03...
(from here:
https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/157EB/... )
https://www.ft.com/content/2782655a-0441-4d38-bb03...
(from here:
https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/157EB/... )
Record traffic out of Paris as second French lockdown begins
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-54742795
https://twitter.com/MichaelEWebber/status/13218786...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-54742795
BBC said:
Traffic around Paris hit record levels just hours before a new national lockdown came into force across France.
Jams stretched to a cumulative 430 miles (700 km) in the Ile-de-France region early on Thursday evening, local media reported.
Lockdown measures came into force at midnight on Friday (23:00 GMT) to tackle spiralling Covid infections.
And some video!Jams stretched to a cumulative 430 miles (700 km) in the Ile-de-France region early on Thursday evening, local media reported.
Lockdown measures came into force at midnight on Friday (23:00 GMT) to tackle spiralling Covid infections.
https://twitter.com/MichaelEWebber/status/13218786...
RSTurboPaul said:
NHS App to be made more sensitive, so that more people have to isolate:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/30/nhs-co...
And that's a 'tweak'??
Interesting to note also that...:
"The Telegraph understands that the Government is considering allowing a Christmas window in which families can meet, with lockdowns on either side of the festive period."
and
"It came as health officials told The Telegraph they are concerned that not enough people are coming forward for testing, meaning that the spread of transmission is not being tracked."
Just push that thin end of the wedge in a bit more...https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/30/nhs-co...
Telegraph said:
The NHS contact tracing app will force more people into self-isolation after the algorithm was tweaked, officials have announced.
...
However, the technical changes to the NHS app – now downloaded by more than 19 million people, [19 million people!!] approximately 40 per cent of those with eligible phones – could send significantly enhanced numbers into de facto lockdown with no ministerial announcement.
...
On top of improvements to the app’s ability to judge proximity, officials have lowered the risk threshold which determines whether an alert is sent from a score of 900 to one of 120.
Reduced from 900 to 120?...
However, the technical changes to the NHS app – now downloaded by more than 19 million people, [19 million people!!] approximately 40 per cent of those with eligible phones – could send significantly enhanced numbers into de facto lockdown with no ministerial announcement.
...
On top of improvements to the app’s ability to judge proximity, officials have lowered the risk threshold which determines whether an alert is sent from a score of 900 to one of 120.
And that's a 'tweak'??
Interesting to note also that...:
"The Telegraph understands that the Government is considering allowing a Christmas window in which families can meet, with lockdowns on either side of the festive period."
and
"It came as health officials told The Telegraph they are concerned that not enough people are coming forward for testing, meaning that the spread of transmission is not being tracked."
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