CV19 - Cure worse than the disease? (Vol 5)

[isaldiri]

WindyCommon said:

I think it is good to have someone in any group/discussion that will question groupthink and “selective accuracy”, and I 100% agree that there is plenty of both here. You do a good job of highlighting it. But Elysium breaks a lot of heavy snow, and has brought more to this discussion than anyone else - even if he does at times pursue ideas to their limits as I’m sure he’ll acknowledge. The most effective questioning comes from those who are prepared to risk something of themselves by sharing their own thinking, otherwise it can be seen as negative. Perhaps as we see here. You are obviously highly engaged in this topic, and have a good grasp of detail across the many disciplines it spans. So you have more to offer, and I would welcome a chance to hear what YOU think is required. That is all!

btw - I think we once shared a pit garage as Silverstone. Is that possible?

Pit garage - entirely possible but I've sneaked into a lot of garages over the years as well so I can't guarantee it was me

You're right I agree, I tend to do a lot of picking out what I see as blatantly incorrect claims or those jumping to conclusions based on awfully selective data points but as I think I've made quite clear, I don't like thinking in terms of certainties when there quite obviously aren't many so I'm much less willing to make wide ranging proclamations about what will happen.

That said, I think you might be a little unfair to pointing out I'm always an ambush predator (and you have ambushed me here!) - I think I have repeatedly made my PoV wrt to covid pretty clear, I broadly agree with the general point of the thread but I strongly disagree with the implication that there will be little human cost to doing so as 'we are mostly immune/most people aren't susceptible'. There is imo very little reason to believe we are all as immune as has been repeatedly suggested (especially wrt to t cells given people with hcov antibodies have been shown to have had covid per earlier medrixv study posted here) and that I suppose is the crux of a lot of my issues with certain posts. Well that and the great conspiracy of extreme communist scientists in cahoots with evil pharma/mega capitalists to enable the great reset as there's a bit of a cognitive dissonance there I reckon....

[anonymous-user]

Alucidnation said:

Do you think this is more propaganda?

Well the VAST majority have minimal symptoms, where are their stories, because unfortunately the BBC has to stay balanced, that is in their charter...

[Boringvolvodriver]

Chicken Chaser said:

breakfan said:

That's really poignant

I wish these comparisons were on the 8 o'clock news rather than page 464 of a car forum

The saddest thing about it is that even if the media knew, they'd not report it in that way.

I know a lot of people who are experiencing the symptoms of mild depression, many who have never felt that way before. I'm trying to keep it at bay with exercise and getting outdoors even when it's not great weather but it doesn't take long before I'm feeling thoroughly deflated

Yup, know exactly how you feel. My wife and I are both normally upbeat and never get down but this mess is really getting us down. We were supposed to be enjoying our retirement with lots of travel........and to make it even worse the draconian laws will technically stop us meeting and holding our first grandchild when he/her finally makes an appearance in a couple of days.

Well the law may be broken..............otherwise we would be broken

[sim72]

Pesty said:

Doesn’t appear masks work

Masks are only useful where they are mandated in areas of high transmission - i.e. where people are indoors, in close proximity, for an extended period.

For example, in homes, workplaces, hospitality or schools

Certainly in the UK, they are currently not mandated in any of those places.

Therefore they are effectively pointless.

[Boringvolvodriver]

The Spruce Goose said:

Well the VAST majority have minimal symptoms, where are their stories, because unfortunately the BBC has to stay balanced, that is in their charter...

Not sure the BBC a has been balanced for quite some time.........

Trying to cozy up to the government to keep their public funding I suspect

[markyb_lcy]

Boringvolvodriver said:

markyb_lcy said:

I’m watching C4 news and having to pinch myself.

A huge conflation has just occurred between infections (estimated by ons survey) and “cases” (positive PCR tests) in order to say the Whitty and Valance “scenario” of 50k daily cases by mid October was “probably an understatement”.

Lord Jesus H Christ give me strength.

Just watched John Campbell on YouTube go through the Imperial figures v the Zoe figures. Basically saying the Imperial ones are a bit iffy at 96000 per day whilst Zoe at 43000 per day are more likely.

Tim Spector has said that there is no surge and no need to panic as no excess deaths being seen.

Also looked at some data that said the there is likely to be immunity through the T cells for quite a long time which again is positive.

Will this get reported - doubtful and I am with him in saying that the news media like bad news - only got to look at the Mail headlines......... if you dare.

It’s almost like each news source is trying to out-stupid each other.

[anonymous-user]

Boringvolvodriver said:

Not sure the BBC a has been balanced for quite some time.........

Trying to cozy up to the government to keep their public funding I suspect

Yes Boris did the licence law change, now the BBC is selling the Project Fear.

The thing that got me about the story was the bloke saying he didn't wear masks, well was this before they were mandatory and how long ago did he get it.

[Boringvolvodriver]

markyb_lcy said:

It’s almost like each news source is trying to out-stupid each other.

And the OFCom guidelines make it difficult for an alternative view to be broadcast. If only a broadcaster was prepared to go against them and actually give a balanced view. We are being misled on an industrial scale here but for whose benefit?

[isaldiri]

sim72 said:

Masks are only useful where they are mandated in areas of high transmission - i.e. where people are indoors, in close proximity, for an extended period.

For example, in homes, workplaces, hospitality or schools

Certainly in the UK, they are currently not mandated in any of those places.

Therefore they are effectively pointless.

Slight correction - If you are indoors, in close proximity for an extended period, you're going to get it if near an infected person short of wearing a proper N95 type mask and disposing of it properly. Which would be hardly ever outside of medical settings where you'd be in full bloody PPE on a covid ward.

And if you're not the chances of getting covid are negligible anyway such that the marginal difference to transmission a mask might make is irrelevant....

[markyb_lcy]

Boringvolvodriver said:

markyb_lcy said:

It’s almost like each news source is trying to out-stupid each other.

And the OFCom guidelines make it difficult for an alternative view to be broadcast. If only a broadcaster was prepared to go against them and actually give a balanced view. We are being misled on an industrial scale here but for whose benefit?

I honestly can’t see any winners in this whole stshow.

[Newc]

Saweep said:

I think Boris will stay strong, because of London.

London is doing just fine. Shutting down the whole country, including the engine which is London, would just be insane.

London tier 3 from next Thursday.

Though given the general air of ignoring the tier 2 rules I see around, I'm not sure it'll make any difference.

[johnboy1975]

sim72 said:

Pesty said:

Doesn’t appear masks work

Masks are only useful where they are mandated in areas of high transmission - i.e. where people are indoors, in close proximity, for an extended period.

For example, in homes, workplaces, hospitality or schools

Certainly in the UK, they are currently not mandated in any of those places.

Therefore they are effectively pointless.

I'd argue prolonged use makes them ineffective by default. Unless you are going to tell your students to change them (very carefully) after each lesson, so 5 masks a day, all in sealed bags. Take masks home, rinse and repeat. And that's IF cloth masks work. Which according to 20 plus years of evidence they don't (as per early guidance). And the new (unpublished) study would appear to be damning.

[Saweep]

Newc said:

Saweep said:

I think Boris will stay strong, because of London.

London is doing just fine. Shutting down the whole country, including the engine which is London, would just be insane.

London tier 3 from next Thursday.

Though given the general air of ignoring the tier 2 rules I see around, I'm not sure it'll make any difference.

I meant from the full, national, stay at home orders that the media are screaming for

[Alucidnation]

Pesty said:

Doesn’t appear masks work


























https://thefederalist.com/2020/10/29/these-12-grap...

Most of those increases are several months after masks were required.

[Zoobeef]

Alucidnation said:

Pesty said:

Doesn’t appear masks work


























https://thefederalist.com/2020/10/29/these-12-grap...

Most of those increases are several months after masks were required.

I dont think he's saying that masks cause infections.

[EddieSteadyGo]

Newc said:

London tier 3 from next Thursday.

Though given the general air of ignoring the tier 2 rules I see around, I'm not sure it'll make any difference.

I must admit, I thought that too, but the Spectator are putting together some stat in an easy to access format.

I've not checked the source of data, but it does seem to suggest at face value there might be some room for optimism regarding the effect of some of the Tier 3 restrictions.



https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/tier-3


ETA : And then I read this tweet from Sam Coates which suggest in fact the government are now thinking of implementing a "tier 4" in England i.e. lockdown...

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1322268151...

Edited by EddieSteadyGo on Friday 30th October 20:10

[alangla]

Carl Heneghan tweeted this out https://twitter.com/carlheneghan/status/1322206892...

The figure that struck me in the attached report is that daily community admissions in Liverpool have been *falling* for the last 3 weeks, but this has been masked by up to 13 admissions a day (27% of the total) caused by nosocomial infections. I’ve suspected for a while that crap infection control in the NHS is responsible for a lot of reported hospitalisations and deaths but this actually lays it out with stats.

[isaldiri]

johnboy1975 said:

Thanks, I'll have a look. (Looks a slam dunk from the graph). Coupled with a stat I've already mentioned, but pertinent, this year is the 8th worse for excess deaths in the last 27 years. EIGHTH.

My point being, you can only keep people alive so long. Having said that, they belive the first person to live to 150 may already have been born. I'll leave you to decide if that is universal good news

I have had a bit of a play with the data spreadsheet. I don't agree with your statement that this year will only be the 8th worse for excess deaths to be honest.

Assuming you define excess deaths as the average number of deaths for the prior 5 years, assuming current excess deaths stay at levels they are now (give or take another I don't know couple of thousand, probably going up than down let's face it) it is going to be an awfully long time back to get oer 50,000 excess deaths in a single year. Like er... 1951.

Making a slight adjustment for population size increasing over time (by way of a very crude adjustment admittedly by taking avg death rate x population, the same thing happens. 2015 was a bit of an oddity having a relatively high death rate but this year is going to be by quite a distance the worst year for excess deaths for a while.

[grumbledoak]

V1nce Fox said:

yeah that's really not helped. that entire thing reads like a fking power grab for our own good

Yes, it does.

[Elysium]

Graphs for today:


Cases per 100k tests slowing with todays numbers. Growth is equivalent to a 36 day doubling since 1st Oct. On the way up now out of the regular dip, so we will see if it punches above the orange line in next week. No test figures released over the weekend unfortunately:



Deaths are less positive. Todays numbers backfilled a bit and we have new peak of 242 deaths on the 26th Oct. This is now closer to a 13 day doubling since 1st Oct. At some point it should slow to match cases:



Finally, this is shows the percentage of all tests returning a positive result against the number of test processed. The trend of increased positivity with more tests is continuing. It should not correlate at all and definitely not this closely: