CV19 - Cure worse than the disease? (Vol 5)
Discussion
snowen250 said:
Worryingly for those of us who enjoy getting out and about i feat that a big proportion of the UK populace would see that as heaven.
PJ's all day.
Netflix / Disney + all day.
Order a take away for dinner.
Watch some awful X factor / Britain's got no talent on TV in the evening.
Go to bed.
Wake up - Repeat.
For some, this is ideal. No work, no stress. No thinking.
That's my idea of hell. PJ's all day.
Netflix / Disney + all day.
Order a take away for dinner.
Watch some awful X factor / Britain's got no talent on TV in the evening.
Go to bed.
Wake up - Repeat.
For some, this is ideal. No work, no stress. No thinking.
OddCat said:
Yes, but I didn't want to quote my whole original long post (because I hate it when people do that !)
QE aside - the issue was one of GDP essentially being mostly churning the same old money round and round the UK. National wealth can really only be increased if we obtain net positive money from outside (ie a positive balance of payments). Otherwise we are just handing round the same money. It is a net neutral game (HMRC take ignored) where for every guy who gets a £1 someone else is down a £1. Some people are in much better financial fettle because of the Covid crisis (ie saving the money rather than pi$$ing it all up the wall). Others are up $hit creek because they don't have income any more.
I mused a hypothetical situation where everyone spent what they would have done regardless of not getting a service. Example: I go and give my local take away £20 even though I'm not having a take away type thing. So we all 'spend' the same amount we previously did. Therefore no businesses go bust because their income continues as it was / would have been. But instead the billions that aren't being spent are being saved.
I know this isn't the right thread for this discussion but you're completely ignoring the whole mechanics of wealth creation. The loss of wealth is in the loss of productivity, people not working because they are furloughed or their job doesn't exist any more. Wealth isn't created by passing money from one to another, it is created by adding value. That requires work. If no-one works, no value is added to anything therefore no wealth is created. What we are living on now is borrowed money which all seems great until it needs to be paid back somehow.QE aside - the issue was one of GDP essentially being mostly churning the same old money round and round the UK. National wealth can really only be increased if we obtain net positive money from outside (ie a positive balance of payments). Otherwise we are just handing round the same money. It is a net neutral game (HMRC take ignored) where for every guy who gets a £1 someone else is down a £1. Some people are in much better financial fettle because of the Covid crisis (ie saving the money rather than pi$$ing it all up the wall). Others are up $hit creek because they don't have income any more.
I mused a hypothetical situation where everyone spent what they would have done regardless of not getting a service. Example: I go and give my local take away £20 even though I'm not having a take away type thing. So we all 'spend' the same amount we previously did. Therefore no businesses go bust because their income continues as it was / would have been. But instead the billions that aren't being spent are being saved.
OddCat said:
Off on a slight tangent, I have been wondering about the mechanics of the economic implications, impact on GDP etc. Leaving aside the governments creation of imaginary money to pay for things, essentially economic activity is about the circulation of money?
I have £75 in the bank. I can stop at home and keep my £75 or I can go out and spend it on a meal. If I do the former it adds £0 to GDP. If I do the latter it adds £75 to GDP, the business then pays tax out of that and also pays staff who pay tax etc. So my £75 end up part with HMRC, part with the restaurant owner, part with the restaurant staff and part with the restaurants suppliers. Some of that money then gets spent by the restaurant owner / staff / suppliers and that is classed as more GDP as the cycle goes on again. My £75 end up fragmented all over the place and being counted as maybe £150 of GDP (ignoring that it was also classed as GDP to my employer before he passed it on to me).
Basically then, GDP is accelerated / multiplied by the same money changing hands with HMRC slicing a bit off each time. I can see why high transactional / money turnover is attractive to HMRC. I can also see how people not spending will mean that some people stop getting money (the restaurant staff). But it feels like a lot of the economic activity (especially hospitality) is just a money circulation device.
Of our £2tn GDP, a good chunk of it is money going round for the sake of it.
For the avoidance of doubt, I’m firmly in the “lockdown is insane – let’s just be a bit sensible but let this thing run its course” camp.
I read your post and have decided that Douglas Adams summed up the economy in a much simpler manner. I have £75 in the bank. I can stop at home and keep my £75 or I can go out and spend it on a meal. If I do the former it adds £0 to GDP. If I do the latter it adds £75 to GDP, the business then pays tax out of that and also pays staff who pay tax etc. So my £75 end up part with HMRC, part with the restaurant owner, part with the restaurant staff and part with the restaurants suppliers. Some of that money then gets spent by the restaurant owner / staff / suppliers and that is classed as more GDP as the cycle goes on again. My £75 end up fragmented all over the place and being counted as maybe £150 of GDP (ignoring that it was also classed as GDP to my employer before he passed it on to me).
Basically then, GDP is accelerated / multiplied by the same money changing hands with HMRC slicing a bit off each time. I can see why high transactional / money turnover is attractive to HMRC. I can also see how people not spending will mean that some people stop getting money (the restaurant staff). But it feels like a lot of the economic activity (especially hospitality) is just a money circulation device.
Of our £2tn GDP, a good chunk of it is money going round for the sake of it.
For the avoidance of doubt, I’m firmly in the “lockdown is insane – let’s just be a bit sensible but let this thing run its course” camp.
"This planet has - or rather had - a problem, which was this: most of the people living on it were unhappy for pretty much all of the time. Many solutions were suggested for this problem, but most of these were largely concerned with the movement of small green pieces of paper, which was odd because on the whole it wasn't the small green pieces of paper that were unhappy."
king arthur said:
OddCat said:
Yes, but I didn't want to quote my whole original long post (because I hate it when people do that !)
QE aside - the issue was one of GDP essentially being mostly churning the same old money round and round the UK. National wealth can really only be increased if we obtain net positive money from outside (ie a positive balance of payments). Otherwise we are just handing round the same money. It is a net neutral game (HMRC take ignored) where for every guy who gets a £1 someone else is down a £1. Some people are in much better financial fettle because of the Covid crisis (ie saving the money rather than pi$$ing it all up the wall). Others are up $hit creek because they don't have income any more.
I mused a hypothetical situation where everyone spent what they would have done regardless of not getting a service. Example: I go and give my local take away £20 even though I'm not having a take away type thing. So we all 'spend' the same amount we previously did. Therefore no businesses go bust because their income continues as it was / would have been. But instead the billions that aren't being spent are being saved.
I know this isn't the right thread for this discussion but you're completely ignoring the whole mechanics of wealth creation. The loss of wealth is in the loss of productivity, people not working because they are furloughed or their job doesn't exist any more. Wealth isn't created by passing money from one to another, it is created by adding value. That requires work. If no-one works, no value is added to anything therefore no wealth is created. What we are living on now is borrowed money which all seems great until it needs to be paid back somehow.QE aside - the issue was one of GDP essentially being mostly churning the same old money round and round the UK. National wealth can really only be increased if we obtain net positive money from outside (ie a positive balance of payments). Otherwise we are just handing round the same money. It is a net neutral game (HMRC take ignored) where for every guy who gets a £1 someone else is down a £1. Some people are in much better financial fettle because of the Covid crisis (ie saving the money rather than pi$$ing it all up the wall). Others are up $hit creek because they don't have income any more.
I mused a hypothetical situation where everyone spent what they would have done regardless of not getting a service. Example: I go and give my local take away £20 even though I'm not having a take away type thing. So we all 'spend' the same amount we previously did. Therefore no businesses go bust because their income continues as it was / would have been. But instead the billions that aren't being spent are being saved.
richardxjr said:
PeteinSQ said:
There will still be people who want to run pubs after this is all over and some of them will have access to capital to make it happen.
The WORST thing I have seen so far is a previously brilliant little country pub near me, landlord sadly died right at the start of this, son sold the lease quietly to some incomer who has used the Rona as an excuse to turf out the locals and turn it into a poxy restaurant. He literally moved down here from Surrey with a transit load of dark grey paint, slate plates and chalkboards, and ruined it overnight.Stroke of well timed genius by him, his previous was airport lounges!
It may well turn out to be a resounding financial success for him, but that village has lost its pub.
GMT13 said:
1974nc said:
gregs656 said:
Watching everything slide backwards is pretty depressing.
Between the seasonal effect of the weather changing and nights drawing in, the increasingly random and short notice restrictions, the end of furlough and the pressure a lot of families face to put on a good show at Christmas (perhaps without some of their family with them) - I expect the mental health for a great many individuals is about to nose dive.
It's a kind of insidious torture the government are deliberately inflicting on the population, yet they beg for more like one of those women that always goes back to her abuser.Between the seasonal effect of the weather changing and nights drawing in, the increasingly random and short notice restrictions, the end of furlough and the pressure a lot of families face to put on a good show at Christmas (perhaps without some of their family with them) - I expect the mental health for a great many individuals is about to nose dive.
Wait till its dark at 4pm and theres nothing to do on a weekend except sit in your house and watch TV, day in day out as everything else will have been either banned or made untenable
Some hospitalisation numbers in here I can't believe - https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-...
At 30th Sept in England:
Total beds occupied -112,228
Total beds occupied with Covid - 2,069 or 1.84% of capacity
Total mechanical ventilator beds occupied - 2,702
Total mechanical ventilator beds occupied with Covid - 285 or 10.55%
Number of patients admitted with Covid on that day - 59
Number of inpatients diagnosed with Covid (last 24 hours) - 231
Number of confirmed Covid cases discharged from hospital (last 24 hours) - 236
Entire month of September:
Number of patients admitted with Covid - 1152
Number of inpatients diagnosed with Covid (last 24 hours) - 4,206
Number of confirmed Covid cases discharged from hospital (last 24 hours) - 3,170
The full data is here - https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/wp-content/u...
Basically, either people are catching Covid in hospital or the vast majority of cases being reported in hospital are not actually being admitted for Covid and failing a PCR test when being treated for something else. Either way, not good.
At 30th Sept in England:
Total beds occupied -112,228
Total beds occupied with Covid - 2,069 or 1.84% of capacity
Total mechanical ventilator beds occupied - 2,702
Total mechanical ventilator beds occupied with Covid - 285 or 10.55%
Number of patients admitted with Covid on that day - 59
Number of inpatients diagnosed with Covid (last 24 hours) - 231
Number of confirmed Covid cases discharged from hospital (last 24 hours) - 236
Entire month of September:
Number of patients admitted with Covid - 1152
Number of inpatients diagnosed with Covid (last 24 hours) - 4,206
Number of confirmed Covid cases discharged from hospital (last 24 hours) - 3,170
The full data is here - https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/wp-content/u...
Basically, either people are catching Covid in hospital or the vast majority of cases being reported in hospital are not actually being admitted for Covid and failing a PCR test when being treated for something else. Either way, not good.
TV8 said:
Some hospitalisation numbers in here I can't believe - https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-...
At 30th Sept in England:
Total beds occupied -112,228
Total beds occupied with Covid - 2,069 or 1.84% of capacity
Total mechanical ventilator beds occupied - 2,702
Total mechanical ventilator beds occupied with Covid - 285 or 10.55%
Number of patients admitted with Covid on that day - 59
Number of inpatients diagnosed with Covid (last 24 hours) - 231
Number of confirmed Covid cases discharged from hospital (last 24 hours) - 236
Entire month of September:
Number of patients admitted with Covid - 1152
Number of inpatients diagnosed with Covid (last 24 hours) - 4,206
Number of confirmed Covid cases discharged from hospital (last 24 hours) - 3,170
The full data is here - https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/wp-content/u...
Basically, either people are catching Covid in hospital or the vast majority of cases being reported in hospital are not actually being admitted for Covid and failing a PCR test when being treated for something else. Either way, not good.
This is what I have thought for a while as I have been unable to reconcile some of the figures provided. At 30th Sept in England:
Total beds occupied -112,228
Total beds occupied with Covid - 2,069 or 1.84% of capacity
Total mechanical ventilator beds occupied - 2,702
Total mechanical ventilator beds occupied with Covid - 285 or 10.55%
Number of patients admitted with Covid on that day - 59
Number of inpatients diagnosed with Covid (last 24 hours) - 231
Number of confirmed Covid cases discharged from hospital (last 24 hours) - 236
Entire month of September:
Number of patients admitted with Covid - 1152
Number of inpatients diagnosed with Covid (last 24 hours) - 4,206
Number of confirmed Covid cases discharged from hospital (last 24 hours) - 3,170
The full data is here - https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/wp-content/u...
Basically, either people are catching Covid in hospital or the vast majority of cases being reported in hospital are not actually being admitted for Covid and failing a PCR test when being treated for something else. Either way, not good.
This and the revelation that someone has been economical with the figures in Liverpool doesn’t surprise me. The narrative of fear has to be kept up.
SS2. said:
Gecko1978 said:
Also fairly sure in worst year flu deaths were 25k. So not as bad as the Covid Death plague
That assumes more than 25k of the 'Covid deaths' represent deaths where folks genuinely died of Covid-19, not 28 days after a dubious test, not where their death certificate was rubber stamped CV-19 for convenience, etc.So if the COVID numbers are accurate (you can't say for sure as it is a new illness and dying with v dying off is not the same thing) but clearly it is not the same as flu. I suspect it kills more but only in cases where any illness could be fatal. So if you have aids but get covid do we say its a covid death, hit by a bus the day after a positive test etc.
Ntv said:
king arthur said:
OddCat said:
Yes, but I didn't want to quote my whole original long post (because I hate it when people do that !)
QE aside - the issue was one of GDP essentially being mostly churning the same old money round and round the UK. National wealth can really only be increased if we obtain net positive money from outside (ie a positive balance of payments). Otherwise we are just handing round the same money. It is a net neutral game (HMRC take ignored) where for every guy who gets a £1 someone else is down a £1. Some people are in much better financial fettle because of the Covid crisis (ie saving the money rather than pi$$ing it all up the wall). Others are up $hit creek because they don't have income any more.
I mused a hypothetical situation where everyone spent what they would have done regardless of not getting a service. Example: I go and give my local take away £20 even though I'm not having a take away type thing. So we all 'spend' the same amount we previously did. Therefore no businesses go bust because their income continues as it was / would have been. But instead the billions that aren't being spent are being saved.
But what if we are borrowing from ourselves. Indeed this would give us a low credit rating in world economics, but so what happens when all the other countries are doing the same.QE aside - the issue was one of GDP essentially being mostly churning the same old money round and round the UK. National wealth can really only be increased if we obtain net positive money from outside (ie a positive balance of payments). Otherwise we are just handing round the same money. It is a net neutral game (HMRC take ignored) where for every guy who gets a £1 someone else is down a £1. Some people are in much better financial fettle because of the Covid crisis (ie saving the money rather than pi$$ing it all up the wall). Others are up $hit creek because they don't have income any more.
I mused a hypothetical situation where everyone spent what they would have done regardless of not getting a service. Example: I go and give my local take away £20 even though I'm not having a take away type thing. So we all 'spend' the same amount we previously did. Therefore no businesses go bust because their income continues as it was / would have been. But instead the billions that aren't being spent are being saved.
Pocty
I know this isn't the right thread for this discussion but you're completely ignoring the whole mechanics of wealth creation. The loss of wealth is in the loss of productivity, people not working because they are furloughed or their job doesn't exist any more. Wealth isn't created by passing money from one to another, it is created by adding value. That requires work. If no-one works, no value is added to anything therefore no wealth is created. What we are living on now is borrowed money which all seems great until it needs to be paid back somehow.
Ntv said:
richardxjr said:
PeteinSQ said:
There will still be people who want to run pubs after this is all over and some of them will have access to capital to make it happen.
The WORST thing I have seen so far is a previously brilliant little country pub near me, landlord sadly died right at the start of this, son sold the lease quietly to some incomer who has used the Rona as an excuse to turf out the locals and turn it into a poxy restaurant. He literally moved down here from Surrey with a transit load of dark grey paint, slate plates and chalkboards, and ruined it overnight.Stroke of well timed genius by him, his previous was airport lounges!
It may well turn out to be a resounding financial success for him, but that village has lost its pub.
I can't see a working vaccine being released before 2023.
Johnson & Johnson has paused its Covid-19 vaccine trial due to an “unexplained illness” in a participant, the company confirmed.
The pharmaceutical giant was unclear if the patient was administered a placebo or the experimental vaccine, and it’s not remarkable for studies as large as the one Johnson & Johnson are conducting – involving 60,000 patients – to be temporarily paused.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/12/john...
Pocty
Johnson & Johnson has paused its Covid-19 vaccine trial due to an “unexplained illness” in a participant, the company confirmed.
The pharmaceutical giant was unclear if the patient was administered a placebo or the experimental vaccine, and it’s not remarkable for studies as large as the one Johnson & Johnson are conducting – involving 60,000 patients – to be temporarily paused.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/12/john...
Pocty
LeighW said:
snowen250 said:
Worryingly for those of us who enjoy getting out and about i feat that a big proportion of the UK populace would see that as heaven.
PJ's all day.
Netflix / Disney + all day.
Order a take away for dinner.
Watch some awful X factor / Britain's got no talent on TV in the evening.
Go to bed.
Wake up - Repeat.
For some, this is ideal. No work, no stress. No thinking.
That's my idea of hell. PJ's all day.
Netflix / Disney + all day.
Order a take away for dinner.
Watch some awful X factor / Britain's got no talent on TV in the evening.
Go to bed.
Wake up - Repeat.
For some, this is ideal. No work, no stress. No thinking.
Graveworm said:
Elysium said:
That is probably one of the worst analogies I have ever heard. Rosa Parks had no choice. She was not going to convince anyone that she was white.
She was sat in a black persons seat.. Your analogy remains terrible.
Elysium said:
Graveworm said:
Elysium said:
That is probably one of the worst analogies I have ever heard. Rosa Parks had no choice. She was not going to convince anyone that she was white.
She was sat in a black persons seat.. Your analogy remains terrible.
OK - here is the data for today.
1. Distribution of todays reported cases by specimen date is a little odd. Zero cases for yesterday, but loads for the 12th Oct. The variability in reporting makes it difficult to predict a trend:
2. Cases per 100k tests have doubled every 18 days since the 16th Sept, which Whitty and Vallance projected a 7 day doubling. I have dropped the 7 days as we all know it was wrong and am instead tracking the real rate of growth:
3. A similar graph for daily deaths, which have doubled every 20 days since the 16th Sept:
4. Finally, this shows cases per 100k tests vs hospital admissions (5 day lag) vs deaths (10 day lag). These are still tracking closely, so the new cases are resulting in deaths, but an an IFR which is likely to be below 0.49%:
In summary, the increase in cases, deaths and hospitalisations is real, but it is much slower than the scenario Whitty and Vallance presented and nowhere near the sort of growth we saw in March.
I think this is going to slow down as the situation in Universities calms down. In the last few weeks 2.5 million students formed new households at the exact time when respiratory viruses start to rise. That should be less of a factor in the coming weeks.
What worries me is that the Govt are likely to claim the restrictions caused the slowdown and a lot of stupid people are likely to believe them.
1. Distribution of todays reported cases by specimen date is a little odd. Zero cases for yesterday, but loads for the 12th Oct. The variability in reporting makes it difficult to predict a trend:
2. Cases per 100k tests have doubled every 18 days since the 16th Sept, which Whitty and Vallance projected a 7 day doubling. I have dropped the 7 days as we all know it was wrong and am instead tracking the real rate of growth:
3. A similar graph for daily deaths, which have doubled every 20 days since the 16th Sept:
4. Finally, this shows cases per 100k tests vs hospital admissions (5 day lag) vs deaths (10 day lag). These are still tracking closely, so the new cases are resulting in deaths, but an an IFR which is likely to be below 0.49%:
In summary, the increase in cases, deaths and hospitalisations is real, but it is much slower than the scenario Whitty and Vallance presented and nowhere near the sort of growth we saw in March.
I think this is going to slow down as the situation in Universities calms down. In the last few weeks 2.5 million students formed new households at the exact time when respiratory viruses start to rise. That should be less of a factor in the coming weeks.
What worries me is that the Govt are likely to claim the restrictions caused the slowdown and a lot of stupid people are likely to believe them.
Elysium said:
Which she refused to give up to a white man. A situation that would have not been remotely remarkable if she was white.
Your analogy remains terrible.
The lie I proposed would however have applied to a black person. "I'm sorry I didn't realise that I was supposed to give up my seat" Your analogy remains terrible.
But anyway you are doing far more than she, in lying to a restaurant owner to resist an unjust law which no one will ever know your are resisting.
In doing so you are minimising any impact of your rebellion, if you are right and it's pointless; whilst maximising any damage, if you are wrong and it matters. A law so objectively unjust that it's mirrored in most of the civilised world, voted on and passed by an elected parliament, supported by the majority of the public, the medical & scientific communities and subject to judicial review.
I think you mean a law you don't agree with.
Edited by Graveworm on Thursday 15th October 17:52
55palfers said:
Gecko1978 said:
Gym fined £1000 for staying open claiming it was for benefit of members mental and physical health.
Raised £31k in go fund me donations. Being healthy helps you fight covid. Its crazy we are not using this as an opportunity to get Britain healthy an not just back to working in factories and going to gregs and then getting sick.
Sky News: https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-merseyside-...
I suspect Plod were a bit thin on the ground here though........Raised £31k in go fund me donations. Being healthy helps you fight covid. Its crazy we are not using this as an opportunity to get Britain healthy an not just back to working in factories and going to gregs and then getting sick.
Sky News: https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-merseyside-...
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8809427/H...
Elysium said:
OK - here is the data for today.
1. Distribution of todays reported cases by specimen date is a little odd. Zero cases for yesterday, but loads for the 12th Oct. The variability in reporting makes it difficult to predict a trend:
2. Cases per 100k tests have doubled every 18 days since the 16th Sept, which Whitty and Vallance projected a 7 day doubling. I have dropped the 7 days as we all know it was wrong and am instead tracking the real rate of growth:
3. A similar graph for daily deaths, which have doubled every 20 days since the 16th Sept:
4. Finally, this shows cases per 100k tests vs hospital admissions (5 day lag) vs deaths (10 day lag). These are still tracking closely, so the new cases are resulting in deaths, but an an IFR which is likely to be below 0.49%:
In summary, the increase in cases, deaths and hospitalisations is real, but it is much slower than the scenario Whitty and Vallance presented and nowhere near the sort of growth we saw in March.
I think this is going to slow down as the situation in Universities calms down. In the last few weeks 2.5 million students formed new households at the exact time when respiratory viruses start to rise. That should be less of a factor in the coming weeks.
What worries me is that the Govt are likely to claim the restrictions caused the slowdown and a lot of stupid people are likely to believe them.
Thanks for your work on this - really appreciated and confirms more accurately than my quick back of a fag packet calculations.1. Distribution of todays reported cases by specimen date is a little odd. Zero cases for yesterday, but loads for the 12th Oct. The variability in reporting makes it difficult to predict a trend:
2. Cases per 100k tests have doubled every 18 days since the 16th Sept, which Whitty and Vallance projected a 7 day doubling. I have dropped the 7 days as we all know it was wrong and am instead tracking the real rate of growth:
3. A similar graph for daily deaths, which have doubled every 20 days since the 16th Sept:
4. Finally, this shows cases per 100k tests vs hospital admissions (5 day lag) vs deaths (10 day lag). These are still tracking closely, so the new cases are resulting in deaths, but an an IFR which is likely to be below 0.49%:
In summary, the increase in cases, deaths and hospitalisations is real, but it is much slower than the scenario Whitty and Vallance presented and nowhere near the sort of growth we saw in March.
I think this is going to slow down as the situation in Universities calms down. In the last few weeks 2.5 million students formed new households at the exact time when respiratory viruses start to rise. That should be less of a factor in the coming weeks.
What worries me is that the Govt are likely to claim the restrictions caused the slowdown and a lot of stupid people are likely to believe them.
Will the media ever pick up on this though? Doubtful as it doesn’t fit the fear narrative that is going on. Sadly, a lot of people have no grasp of statistics and numbers.
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