Laurence Fox - New Political Party
Discussion
Countdown said:
Could be a disaster for Shaun Bailey - that's several votes he's lost in one fell swoop.
Even as a Tory voter this is a very good thing. The Conservative Party need a harsh lesson from the electorate to show our disgust at the disastrous route they have taken the country in. A huge Conservative defeat is needed to see a return to Conservatism.Additionally, more Khan in London is the perfect punishment for Londoners that vote for him. It will be bad for London but you have to look into the abyss before admitting you are going in the wrong direction.
I do expect the Green extremist vote to eat into Khan's vote, although not enough to see him kicked out of office.
JuanCarlosFandango said:
Countdown
I think the last election was all about Brexit and you can't read too much more into the result. Johnson played a very simple strategy well and the country backed an unequivocal leave message after 4 years of political shenanigans. That Labour was a mess of antisemitism and confusion over Brexit itself made the decision all the easier.
My reading of it is that much of the country, especially the "red wall" which so enthusiastically turned blue in 2019 favours a much more robust conservative agenda which simply isn't on offer from the main parties. Farage tapped into this, and I hope Fox can.
I think I agree that Labour lost votes for sitting on the Brexit fence and being perceived as moving further Left. BoJo & the Tories won by moving to the centre ground. That's what Starmer is trying to get back and if BoJo/the Tories decide that "true" Conservatism is what the Country wants we'll get another Blairite PM.I think the last election was all about Brexit and you can't read too much more into the result. Johnson played a very simple strategy well and the country backed an unequivocal leave message after 4 years of political shenanigans. That Labour was a mess of antisemitism and confusion over Brexit itself made the decision all the easier.
My reading of it is that much of the country, especially the "red wall" which so enthusiastically turned blue in 2019 favours a much more robust conservative agenda which simply isn't on offer from the main parties. Farage tapped into this, and I hope Fox can.
The people who voted for Brexit came from across the political spectrum. Just because they voted Brexit doesn't mean they would vote for "True" Conservatism.
Countdown said:
I think I agree that Labour lost votes for sitting on the Brexit fence and being perceived as moving further Left. BoJo & the Tories won by moving to the centre ground. That's what Starmer is trying to get back and if BoJo/the Tories decide that "true" Conservatism is what the Country wants we'll get another Blairite PM.
The people who voted for Brexit came from across the political spectrum. Just because they voted Brexit doesn't mean they would vote for "True" Conservatism.
I'm not convinced about the idea of elections being won from the centre. It was probably more true in 1997 but I think today its more about getting your voters out. That 30 something percent who might not bother rather than the tiny number of people in marginal seats who might switch. And by the same token not doing a Corbyn and inspiring voters to stay at home.The people who voted for Brexit came from across the political spectrum. Just because they voted Brexit doesn't mean they would vote for "True" Conservatism.
JuanCarlosFandango said:
I'm not convinced about the idea of elections being won from the centre. It was probably more true in 1997 but I think today its more about getting your voters out. That 30 something percent who might not bother rather than the tiny number of people in marginal seats who might switch. And by the same token not doing a Corbyn and inspiring voters to stay at home.
I agree that getting out your core vote is important. However the "appeal to the centre" is also important dependent upon how many floating/undecided voters there are.If floating voters are minimal and nearly everybody is going to vote for the Party they've always voted for then you're absolutely correct. There's no point in tailoring your message to appeal to the middle ground or to the other side. However IMO there's always going to be a swing vote. Not everybody is a die hard Tory or Labour voter.
Countdown said:
I agree that getting out your core vote is important. However the "appeal to the centre" is also important dependent upon how many floating/undecided voters there are.
If floating voters are minimal and nearly everybody is going to vote for the Party they've always voted for then you're absolutely correct. There's no point in tailoring your message to appeal to the middle ground or to the other side. However IMO there's always going to be a swing vote. Not everybody is a die hard Tory or Labour voter.
Purely on my own observations few people are die hard Tory or Labour voters but many are die hard against Tory or Labour. I'll own that bias myself as well that however awful the Tories are I would rather stay home than vote Labour. If there's a candidate closer to my views then I'd vote for them.If floating voters are minimal and nearly everybody is going to vote for the Party they've always voted for then you're absolutely correct. There's no point in tailoring your message to appeal to the middle ground or to the other side. However IMO there's always going to be a swing vote. Not everybody is a die hard Tory or Labour voter.
Ashfordian said:
Countdown said:
Could be a disaster for Shaun Bailey - that's several votes he's lost in one fell swoop.
Even as a Tory voter this is a very good thing. The Conservative Party need a harsh lesson from the electorate to show our disgust at the disastrous route they have taken the country in. A huge Conservative defeat is needed to see a return to Conservatism.Additionally, more Khan in London is the perfect punishment for Londoners that vote for him. It will be bad for London but you have to look into the abyss before admitting you are going in the wrong direction.
I do expect the Green extremist vote to eat into Khan's vote, although not enough to see him kicked out of office.
We have the likes of Fox and Farage on Twitter, but it's largely dominated by extreme left wing types who push woke agendas and governments assume the whole of society is in tune with them. As a result, most of the UK voted for the Conservatives and has a party that's pandering to Momentum activists.
JuanCarlosFandango said:
I'm not convinced about the idea of elections being won from the centre. It was probably more true in 1997 but I think today its more about getting your voters out. That 30 something percent who might not bother rather than the tiny number of people in marginal seats who might switch. And by the same token not doing a Corbyn and inspiring voters to stay at home.
This. Boris's win in 2019 might have looked like a massive victory but he actually only got 1.2% more of the vote than May in 2017 which was a hung Parliament. Much of that was Labour losing 10%, a combination of people simply staying at home, Farage's BXP taking votes off Labour in the red wall seats, and people tactically voting for the Lib Dems where they were the second party. There are something like 20 current seats which the Tories gained in which the margin of victory was less than the BXP votes.
You can point to the fact that BXP "only" got 2% of the votes in the GE - but they only stood in Labour-controlled constituencies, which is less than half of them - so their actual influence in those seats was something like 5%.
But a "party" like Fox's is different. It may attract some Labour voters but it's also likely to attract a lot of Tories, especially if the Government isn't doing that well by that time.
Any RW party that stands in a GE and doesn't embarrass itself may find that its wish to provide an alternative for Tory voters may just provide an alternative Government which is the very thing those voters don't want.
Brexit won't be here in 2024, and nor will Corbyn. The lines are very fine.
sim72 said:
JuanCarlosFandango said:
I'm not convinced about the idea of elections being won from the centre. It was probably more true in 1997 but I think today its more about getting your voters out. That 30 something percent who might not bother rather than the tiny number of people in marginal seats who might switch. And by the same token not doing a Corbyn and inspiring voters to stay at home.
This. Boris's win in 2019 might have looked like a massive victory but he actually only got 1.2% more of the vote than May in 2017 which was a hung Parliament. Much of that was Labour losing 10%, a combination of people simply staying at home, Farage's BXP taking votes off Labour in the red wall seats, and people tactically voting for the Lib Dems where they were the second party. There are something like 20 current seats which the Tories gained in which the margin of victory was less than the BXP votes.
You can point to the fact that BXP "only" got 2% of the votes in the GE - but they only stood in Labour-controlled constituencies, which is less than half of them - so their actual influence in those seats was something like 5%.
But a "party" like Fox's is different. It may attract some Labour voters but it's also likely to attract a lot of Tories, especially if the Government isn't doing that well by that time.
Any RW party that stands in a GE and doesn't embarrass itself may find that its wish to provide an alternative for Tory voters may just provide an alternative Government which is the very thing those voters don't want.
Brexit won't be here in 2024, and nor will Corbyn. The lines are very fine.
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hstewie said:
hstewie said:
If masks and vaccine passports are legally required, then their pub will have to insist on masks and vaccine passports like everyone else.
If masks and vaccine passports are not legally required in pubs, then I am willing to bet that no pubs will be asking for them.
This just makes me think they are as thick as mince, or are trying to appeal to people who are as thick as mince.
Randy Winkman said:
smn159 said:
bhstewie said:
hstewie said:
scottyp123 said:
Randy Winkman said:
smn159 said:
bhstewie said:
hstewie said:
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