Coronavirus - the killer flu that will wipe us out? (Vol. 8)
Discussion
Dr Z said:
red_slr said:
Anyone been keeping an eye on the health data projections?
They have been pretty accurate so far.
Not looking promising from mid December through to Feb.
Looks like they are predicting lock down from mid December.
I'm looking at this one:They have been pretty accurate so far.
Not looking promising from mid December through to Feb.
Looks like they are predicting lock down from mid December.
The epidemic is tracking faster and at the worser range of the forecast at the moment. It's not sustainable.
From a report in July:
https://acmedsci.ac.uk/file-download/51353957
The problem is not just that they haven't got the epicentre back under control but that they have allowed it to migrate to other areas which are now seeing sustained growth as well. So when they do finally get the original epicentre flattened the other areas will just take it's place.
Far easier to contain it at low prevalence than high but we missed that opportunity.
Dr Z said:
I'm looking at this one:
The epidemic is tracking faster and at the worser range of the forecast at the moment. It's not sustainable.
From a report in July:
https://acmedsci.ac.uk/file-download/51353957
Figure 4? That assumes R = 1.7 from September 2020 to July 2021, which is quite a high claim.The epidemic is tracking faster and at the worser range of the forecast at the moment. It's not sustainable.
From a report in July:
https://acmedsci.ac.uk/file-download/51353957
Also, where is the clipped, overlayed data from, please?
England only Beds and Deaths updated with the 5.5% daily growth it has been following for six weeks now..
Red figures are the ones that will change dramatically as they are date of death not reported.
I'll leave it to others to forecast where it may reverse trend or top out as many seem to think I'm pushing an agenda rather than just genuinely interested in where this will go without the waffle.
Red figures are the ones that will change dramatically as they are date of death not reported.
I'll leave it to others to forecast where it may reverse trend or top out as many seem to think I'm pushing an agenda rather than just genuinely interested in where this will go without the waffle.
shakindog said:
Just to add my two penny
Needed ct scan wouldn’t let me have one till covid test results back.
Came back negative all good appointment for 12:00 happy days.
Returning to a&e 12 hours later down the covid route please.
I truly believe I picked it up at hospital as had been nowhere else except the local doctors not anywhere as you say I didn’t want it thanks
I have had 2 CT scans over the last 6 weeks, didn’t have a covid test for either.Needed ct scan wouldn’t let me have one till covid test results back.
Came back negative all good appointment for 12:00 happy days.
Returning to a&e 12 hours later down the covid route please.
I truly believe I picked it up at hospital as had been nowhere else except the local doctors not anywhere as you say I didn’t want it thanks
First was routine 6 monthly post chemo scan, 2nd was more focused scan after they noticed a problem from the first.
But the local hospital has a mobile scanner in the car park of a local private hospital.
MOTORVATOR said:
Exactly what I've been saying for the past month. The present interventions have managed to only hold the average rate of growth across the country at a consistent 105.5% of previous day on England only figures.
The problem is not just that they haven't got the epicentre back under control but that they have allowed it to migrate to other areas which are now seeing sustained growth as well. So when they do finally get the original epicentre flattened the other areas will just take it's place.
Far easier to contain it at low prevalence than high but we missed that opportunity.
Just like the rest of the world, other than those countries which sealed their borders, have been so successful at "containing it?.The problem is not just that they haven't got the epicentre back under control but that they have allowed it to migrate to other areas which are now seeing sustained growth as well. So when they do finally get the original epicentre flattened the other areas will just take it's place.
Far easier to contain it at low prevalence than high but we missed that opportunity.
Sounds like the present interventions are doing a good job at keeping new infections at a level that wont exceed health capacity. Suppression is a pipe dream, and an economically suicidal one.
markyb_lcy said:
I’m losing you? You were losing me, which is why I was trying to clarify whether your point was that a) people “taking the piss” or b) the loosening of restrictions was responsible for moving from decreasing prevalence to increasing prevalence. You appeared to originally assert a) but then quickly switched to b)
I haven’t accepted (in these few comments) that either one has.
You really need to come down off that fence mate. We are 8 months into this. You can’t go on supporting two opposing strategies forever. That said, I do agree that we have to pursue one or the other. The current balancing act of trying to do both appears to result in the worst of both worlds.
I'm not on any fence at all. I'm not running the show, the government is and I will support whichever way is decided upon as I don't want to see that worst of both worlds happening.I haven’t accepted (in these few comments) that either one has.
You really need to come down off that fence mate. We are 8 months into this. You can’t go on supporting two opposing strategies forever. That said, I do agree that we have to pursue one or the other. The current balancing act of trying to do both appears to result in the worst of both worlds.
Neither have I switched tack as I clearly said six weeks ago to the deriding muppets on here "be careful what you wish for".
On the other hand you appear to be now wanting to perch very precariously on that fence with whether restrictions have any effect on prevalence or not. Well do they or don't they?
BrundanBianchi said:
I think another full lockdown Is inevitable. Just about all of the SAGE medics wanted it to be in place already. Boris went against their advice.
Sorry the "SAGE Medics"?. Seven of them are mathematicians and they also have a sprinkling of social scientists. Hopefully Boris develops a backbone and keeps telling them to F*ck off.
All lockdown does is kick the can down the street. France had a strict lockdown and now they have 50K cases a day as it rebounds in the autumn.
MOTORVATOR said:
markyb_lcy said:
I’m losing you? You were losing me, which is why I was trying to clarify whether your point was that a) people “taking the piss” or b) the loosening of restrictions was responsible for moving from decreasing prevalence to increasing prevalence. You appeared to originally assert a) but then quickly switched to b)
I haven’t accepted (in these few comments) that either one has.
You really need to come down off that fence mate. We are 8 months into this. You can’t go on supporting two opposing strategies forever. That said, I do agree that we have to pursue one or the other. The current balancing act of trying to do both appears to result in the worst of both worlds.
I'm not on any fence at all. I'm not running the show, the government is and I will support whichever way is decided upon as I don't want to see that worst of both worlds happening.I haven’t accepted (in these few comments) that either one has.
You really need to come down off that fence mate. We are 8 months into this. You can’t go on supporting two opposing strategies forever. That said, I do agree that we have to pursue one or the other. The current balancing act of trying to do both appears to result in the worst of both worlds.
Neither have I switched tack as I clearly said six weeks ago to the deriding muppets on here "be careful what you wish for".
On the other hand you appear to be now wanting to perch very precariously on that fence with whether restrictions have any effect on prevalence or not. Well do they or don't they?
There are some measures which I’d sign up to without major complaint, such as not holding mass events (100 people or more) and criminalising anyone who knowingly puts older / vulnerable people at risk.
Other than that, I say let the virus do its thing, allow people to hide under their bed if they want, and the rest of us should get back to living our lives fully.
BrundanBianchi said:
I think another full lockdown Is inevitable. Just about all of the SAGE medics wanted it to be in place already. Boris went against their advice.
If he is proactive he'll get burned. Need to let it spread enough so he can heroically blame us for having to impose a lockdown.markyb_lcy said:
MOTORVATOR said:
markyb_lcy said:
I’m losing you? You were losing me, which is why I was trying to clarify whether your point was that a) people “taking the piss” or b) the loosening of restrictions was responsible for moving from decreasing prevalence to increasing prevalence. You appeared to originally assert a) but then quickly switched to b)
I haven’t accepted (in these few comments) that either one has.
You really need to come down off that fence mate. We are 8 months into this. You can’t go on supporting two opposing strategies forever. That said, I do agree that we have to pursue one or the other. The current balancing act of trying to do both appears to result in the worst of both worlds.
I'm not on any fence at all. I'm not running the show, the government is and I will support whichever way is decided upon as I don't want to see that worst of both worlds happening.I haven’t accepted (in these few comments) that either one has.
You really need to come down off that fence mate. We are 8 months into this. You can’t go on supporting two opposing strategies forever. That said, I do agree that we have to pursue one or the other. The current balancing act of trying to do both appears to result in the worst of both worlds.
Neither have I switched tack as I clearly said six weeks ago to the deriding muppets on here "be careful what you wish for".
On the other hand you appear to be now wanting to perch very precariously on that fence with whether restrictions have any effect on prevalence or not. Well do they or don't they?
There are some measures which I’d sign up to without major complaint, such as not holding mass events (100 people or more) and criminalising anyone who knowingly puts older / vulnerable people at risk.
Other than that, I say let the virus do its thing, allow people to hide under their bed if they want, and the rest of us should get back to living our lives fully.
“ criminalising anyone who knowingly puts older / vulnerable people at risk”
It’s the same nonsense non-essential items, travel etc . Very hard to quantify and even harder to police.
We should give the old and vulnerable the support and information to make their own decisions.
survivalist said:
I’m with you apart from
“ criminalising anyone who knowingly puts older / vulnerable people at risk”
It’s the same nonsense non-essential items, travel etc . Very hard to quantify and even harder to police.
We should give the old and vulnerable the support and information to make their own decisions.
Absolutely, I don’t disagree with that.“ criminalising anyone who knowingly puts older / vulnerable people at risk”
It’s the same nonsense non-essential items, travel etc . Very hard to quantify and even harder to police.
We should give the old and vulnerable the support and information to make their own decisions.
No older or vulnerable person should at any point be lawfully put under any extra restrictions than anyone else.
That said, I do think they should be afforded extra protection from potentially infected persons whilst there is a risk.
Someone waltzing into a care home after testing positive for example, would be a clear cut case for me.
JagLover said:
BrundanBianchi said:
I think another full lockdown Is inevitable. Just about all of the SAGE medics wanted it to be in place already. Boris went against their advice.
Sorry the "SAGE Medics"?. Seven of them are mathematicians and they also have a sprinkling of social scientists. Hopefully Boris develops a backbone and keeps telling them to F*ck off.
All lockdown does is kick the can down the street. France had a strict lockdown and now they have 50K cases a day as it rebounds in the autumn.
Turns out they are no longer fit for purpose now that we know more about the virus and we’ve now hit a time of year where the NHS is always stretched.
markyb_lcy said:
survivalist said:
I’m with you apart from
“ criminalising anyone who knowingly puts older / vulnerable people at risk”
It’s the same nonsense non-essential items, travel etc . Very hard to quantify and even harder to police.
We should give the old and vulnerable the support and information to make their own decisions.
Absolutely, I don’t disagree with that.“ criminalising anyone who knowingly puts older / vulnerable people at risk”
It’s the same nonsense non-essential items, travel etc . Very hard to quantify and even harder to police.
We should give the old and vulnerable the support and information to make their own decisions.
No older or vulnerable person should at any point be lawfully put under any extra restrictions than anyone else.
That said, I do think they should be afforded extra protection from potentially infected persons whilst there is a risk.
Someone waltzing into a care home after testing positive for example, would be a clear cut case for me.
Either way, sadly the nature of the vulnerable elderly is that they need to have interactions with others to ensure their needs are met.
Who would have thought last christmas that in a years time there the police would be threatening to enter homes and break up family christmas dinners?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/27/family...
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/27/family...
irc said:
Who would have thought last christmas that in a years time there the police would be threatening to enter homes and break up family christmas dinners?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/27/family...
Call their bluff I say and give them a long day of work. They can’t / won’t reach everyone.https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/27/family...
Hollow threats.
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