Coronavirus - the killer flu that will wipe us out? (Vol. 8)
Discussion
FourWheelDrift said:
Probably old news but the USA was the first country to ever top 100k cases in one day yesterday, with 101,461 reported. Although I suspect a second wave in India will go higher if it happens.
Haven't heard much about S America/Brazil for a bit, they were supposed to be pretty bad.survivalist said:
What’s a comparable country? Some of the European ones are pretty grim.
This (not that robust) survey suggests brits were least likely to adopt hygiene standards during swine flu pandemic... vs US, Japan etc. not really comparable countries admittedly. https://www.nhs.uk/news/heart-and-lungs/dirty-brit...
Edited by lothianJim on Saturday 31st October 20:50
lothianJim said:
anonymous said:
[redacted]
I quite like the thai hose pipe thing. More seriously, UK does have a reputation for poor hygeine in general. Perhaps a factor in poor outcomes vs comparable countries?
https://www.grohe.co.uk/en_gb/shower-toilet.html
Not to sure what to make of the weekends England only hospital beds occupied.
People don't end up in a hospital bed the day they get infected so clearly there has been a significant fall in infections a week or more ago for the divergence from track seen and indeed a fall seen in the last day reported.
Deaths have followed exactly the same track through October and a 260 daily rate for 31/10 will almost certainly be accurate but we would now expect to see them peak at around 400/450 a day in 10? days time before falling if they follow the hospital beds occupied?
None of that seems anywhere near what was presented on Saturday as the tier interventions seem to have achieved what they set out to do?
Always wary of weekend reporting but by Thursday we could be in a very odd position?
Running out of question marks if anyone has some free!
People don't end up in a hospital bed the day they get infected so clearly there has been a significant fall in infections a week or more ago for the divergence from track seen and indeed a fall seen in the last day reported.
Deaths have followed exactly the same track through October and a 260 daily rate for 31/10 will almost certainly be accurate but we would now expect to see them peak at around 400/450 a day in 10? days time before falling if they follow the hospital beds occupied?
None of that seems anywhere near what was presented on Saturday as the tier interventions seem to have achieved what they set out to do?
Always wary of weekend reporting but by Thursday we could be in a very odd position?
Running out of question marks if anyone has some free!
MOTORVATOR said:
Not to sure what to make of the weekends England only hospital beds occupied.
People don't end up in a hospital bed the day they get infected so clearly there has been a significant fall in infections a week or more ago for the divergence from track seen and indeed a fall seen in the last day reported.
Deaths have followed exactly the same track through October and a 260 daily rate for 31/10 will almost certainly be accurate but we would now expect to see them peak at around 400/450 a day in 10? days time before falling if they follow the hospital beds occupied?
None of that seems anywhere near what was presented on Saturday as the tier interventions seem to have achieved what they set out to do?
Always wary of weekend reporting but by Thursday we could be in a very odd position?
Running out of question marks if anyone has some free!
Sorry I have another question mark;People don't end up in a hospital bed the day they get infected so clearly there has been a significant fall in infections a week or more ago for the divergence from track seen and indeed a fall seen in the last day reported.
Deaths have followed exactly the same track through October and a 260 daily rate for 31/10 will almost certainly be accurate but we would now expect to see them peak at around 400/450 a day in 10? days time before falling if they follow the hospital beds occupied?
None of that seems anywhere near what was presented on Saturday as the tier interventions seem to have achieved what they set out to do?
Always wary of weekend reporting but by Thursday we could be in a very odd position?
Running out of question marks if anyone has some free!
Are the projections without intervention by local or national restrictions i.e. worse case scenario?
MOTORVATOR said:
Not to sure what to make of the weekends England only hospital beds occupied.
People don't end up in a hospital bed the day they get infected so clearly there has been a significant fall in infections a week or more ago for the divergence from track seen and indeed a fall seen in the last day reported.
Deaths have followed exactly the same track through October and a 260 daily rate for 31/10 will almost certainly be accurate but we would now expect to see them peak at around 400/450 a day in 10? days time before falling if they follow the hospital beds occupied?
None of that seems anywhere near what was presented on Saturday as the tier interventions seem to have achieved what they set out to do?
Always wary of weekend reporting but by Thursday we could be in a very odd position?
Running out of question marks if anyone has some free!
R number also thought to have dropped to one (also reported in Telegraph but they have paywall)People don't end up in a hospital bed the day they get infected so clearly there has been a significant fall in infections a week or more ago for the divergence from track seen and indeed a fall seen in the last day reported.
Deaths have followed exactly the same track through October and a 260 daily rate for 31/10 will almost certainly be accurate but we would now expect to see them peak at around 400/450 a day in 10? days time before falling if they follow the hospital beds occupied?
None of that seems anywhere near what was presented on Saturday as the tier interventions seem to have achieved what they set out to do?
Always wary of weekend reporting but by Thursday we could be in a very odd position?
Running out of question marks if anyone has some free!
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/13094653/coronavirus...
I suspect the frantic rush to force a lockdown with misleading data was because new cases and hospitalisations were levelling out.
sherbertdip said:
MOTORVATOR said:
Not to sure what to make of the weekends England only hospital beds occupied.
People don't end up in a hospital bed the day they get infected so clearly there has been a significant fall in infections a week or more ago for the divergence from track seen and indeed a fall seen in the last day reported.
Deaths have followed exactly the same track through October and a 260 daily rate for 31/10 will almost certainly be accurate but we would now expect to see them peak at around 400/450 a day in 10? days time before falling if they follow the hospital beds occupied?
None of that seems anywhere near what was presented on Saturday as the tier interventions seem to have achieved what they set out to do?
Always wary of weekend reporting but by Thursday we could be in a very odd position?
Running out of question marks if anyone has some free!
Sorry I have another question mark;People don't end up in a hospital bed the day they get infected so clearly there has been a significant fall in infections a week or more ago for the divergence from track seen and indeed a fall seen in the last day reported.
Deaths have followed exactly the same track through October and a 260 daily rate for 31/10 will almost certainly be accurate but we would now expect to see them peak at around 400/450 a day in 10? days time before falling if they follow the hospital beds occupied?
None of that seems anywhere near what was presented on Saturday as the tier interventions seem to have achieved what they set out to do?
Always wary of weekend reporting but by Thursday we could be in a very odd position?
Running out of question marks if anyone has some free!
Are the projections without intervention by local or national restrictions i.e. worse case scenario?
MOTORVATOR said:
No the projections were my figures based on the growth rate that was factually showing at start of October. 5.5% daily increase - It continued to follow that right through the month and up until now no additional intervention had seemed to shift that.
One of the scientists said that the Tier restrictions took 21 days to have an effect on the reported numbers. JagLover said:
R number also thought to have dropped to one (also reported in Telegraph but they have paywall)
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/13094653/coronavirus...
I suspect the frantic rush to force a lockdown with misleading data was because new cases and hospitalisations were levelling out.
It does have the mark of that I would agree. Never paid much attention to case rates as they are only an indicator if you aren't testing a whole population but occupied beds should be a firm statistic as hopefully people aren't in them unless they are sick. https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/13094653/coronavirus...
I suspect the frantic rush to force a lockdown with misleading data was because new cases and hospitalisations were levelling out.
My red line was to show where we ended up if nothing changed and I'm not convinced Boris / cabinet was gifted that info when he was bounced?
I'm only a t
t on the internet and it's hard to think Sage can't do the same simple maths.JagLover said:
MOTORVATOR said:
No the projections were my figures based on the growth rate that was factually showing at start of October. 5.5% daily increase - It continued to follow that right through the month and up until now no additional intervention had seemed to shift that.
One of the scientists said that the Tier restrictions took 21 days to have an effect on the reported numbers. TTmonkey said:
Nearly 400 deaths today.....
...by date reported.https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths
grumbledoak said:
TTmonkey said:
Nearly 400 deaths today.....
...by date reported.https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths
scottyp123 said:
Where is the bit that tells you what days they actually died on and the various ages?
I think you have to dig into the daily announced deaths files, e.g. here for Englandhttps://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-...
ETA- those aren't quite the same values but it does show that the reported deaths are over a few days.
Edited by grumbledoak on Tuesday 3rd November 20:29
Professor Carl Heneghan discusses Covid 19 data on BBC R4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eE7dwkKxfyY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eE7dwkKxfyY
Oh well back to where we were. Seems NE/Yorks/Mids lost track of around 1350 patients for a couple of days.
Hospital beds England only
Deaths England only by date of death. Last five days at least will increase as data catches up.
Projection curve is just the exponential rate that it has been following for over six weeks now. At least there are signs the tiers have started to have an effect on Hospital beds which should reflect similarly on deaths after a lag of ten days or so.
Hospital beds England only
Deaths England only by date of death. Last five days at least will increase as data catches up.
Projection curve is just the exponential rate that it has been following for over six weeks now. At least there are signs the tiers have started to have an effect on Hospital beds which should reflect similarly on deaths after a lag of ten days or so.
V40TC said:
Professor Carl Heneghan discusses Covid 19 data on BBC R4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eE7dwkKxfyY
Very good explanations by Professor Carl Heneghan, thank you for the link.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eE7dwkKxfyY
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