Coronavirus - the killer flu that will wipe us out? (Vol. 8)
Discussion
MOTORVATOR said:
markyb_lcy said:
I’m not “bragging” about anything. You’re misrepresenting me to say that I am.
Perhaps though if you want to occupy the moral high ground and criticise people who break laws, you should set your speed limiter to 70 the next time you’re on the motorway?
There's plenty of speed cameras out there to ensure that happens whether I agree with the imposition of speed limits or not, now be a good chap and try to comply with the law yourself without whining quite so much about it. Perhaps though if you want to occupy the moral high ground and criticise people who break laws, you should set your speed limiter to 70 the next time you’re on the motorway?
I’m just defending myself.I’ll take that that olive branch disguised as a cricket bat though :cheers:
survivalist said:
Sadly I doubt the vaccine changes things significantly until April 2021.
It’ll take a while to vaccinate enough people, but in April the weather will improve and the fearful people will get more comfortable again.
No doubt put incompetent government will have a few issues along the way, which is why they are still urging caution.
But hey, it’s some good news to convince us that the sacrifices have been worth it and that the sacrifices we make in Jan/Feb/March will be the last ones.
I don't think it was a coincidence that furlough was extended to March. We will sadly not be free until then.It’ll take a while to vaccinate enough people, but in April the weather will improve and the fearful people will get more comfortable again.
No doubt put incompetent government will have a few issues along the way, which is why they are still urging caution.
But hey, it’s some good news to convince us that the sacrifices have been worth it and that the sacrifices we make in Jan/Feb/March will be the last ones.
I think the best we can hope for is a few months of summer with relative freedom (but not "normal") before being put back under some restrictions heading into autumn-winter 2021 with the threat of lockdown again if covid or influenza "cases" "surge".
Would not be surprised if we have another 2-3 winters like that.
The bar by which the govt and the wider public go into hysteria mode will get lower, and lower. Mass testing will be inflicted (expected and propgandised over but not quite mandated) on the population that are waiting for the vaccine.
Would not be surprised if we have another 2-3 winters like that.
The bar by which the govt and the wider public go into hysteria mode will get lower, and lower. Mass testing will be inflicted (expected and propgandised over but not quite mandated) on the population that are waiting for the vaccine.
Edited by markyb_lcy on Wednesday 2nd December 21:38
markyb_lcy said:
MOTORVATOR said:
markyb_lcy said:
I’m not “bragging” about anything. You’re misrepresenting me to say that I am.
Perhaps though if you want to occupy the moral high ground and criticise people who break laws, you should set your speed limiter to 70 the next time you’re on the motorway?
There's plenty of speed cameras out there to ensure that happens whether I agree with the imposition of speed limits or not, now be a good chap and try to comply with the law yourself without whining quite so much about it. Perhaps though if you want to occupy the moral high ground and criticise people who break laws, you should set your speed limiter to 70 the next time you’re on the motorway?
I’m just defending myself.I’ll take that that olive branch disguised as a cricket bat though :cheers:
All this on a day where you would expect rational discussion of the impact we may see from the announcement of vaccine approval and rollout but I can see even that has to be laced with pops at government etc above so may be pointless even attempting rationality.
The parallels with engaging with thick as mince remainers after Brexit has already happened are incredible.
We've spent the money, by law you need a face covering, democracy has decreed that you will be in a tiered part of the country for the coming weeks.
There's plenty of other threads where you can b
h about that to your hearts content. I personally avoid them as I don't care, it's history already!I am solely interested in looking forward, that we have one of a possible number of vaccines now, we still have a high level of hospitalised and a substantial daily death toll occurring and would like to consider where that all may go over the next few months so I can get my s
t togetherAnd I swear if you come back with yeah but PCR errors I will hunt you down with said cricket bat and not use it as you may imagine, but rather insert it vertically in a place you would rather I didn't.
survivalist said:
Sadly I doubt the vaccine changes things significantly until April 2021.
It’ll take a while to vaccinate enough people, but in April the weather will improve and the fearful people will get more comfortable again.
No doubt put incompetent government will have a few issues along the way, which is why they are still urging caution.
But hey, it’s some good news to convince us that the sacrifices have been worth it and that the sacrifices we make in Jan/Feb/March will be the last ones.
Agree, spring 2021 then the virus naturally has less impact as people get outdoors more so the dimwits in government have the rest of the year till autumn to stick needles into enough people to feel that they can change the bloody messaging about not crapping themselves about any infection increases. It’ll take a while to vaccinate enough people, but in April the weather will improve and the fearful people will get more comfortable again.
No doubt put incompetent government will have a few issues along the way, which is why they are still urging caution.
But hey, it’s some good news to convince us that the sacrifices have been worth it and that the sacrifices we make in Jan/Feb/March will be the last ones.
Probably can count on the govt chucking in one more semi lockdown in jan to try to keep blame off for increases in deaths after though so we'll have to endure that but hopefully the last of that crap.
isaldiri said:
survivalist said:
Sadly I doubt the vaccine changes things significantly until April 2021.
It’ll take a while to vaccinate enough people, but in April the weather will improve and the fearful people will get more comfortable again.
No doubt put incompetent government will have a few issues along the way, which is why they are still urging caution.
But hey, it’s some good news to convince us that the sacrifices have been worth it and that the sacrifices we make in Jan/Feb/March will be the last ones.
Agree, spring 2021 then the virus naturally has less impact as people get outdoors more so the dimwits in government have the rest of the year till autumn to stick needles into enough people to feel that they can change the bloody messaging about not crapping themselves about any infection increases. It’ll take a while to vaccinate enough people, but in April the weather will improve and the fearful people will get more comfortable again.
No doubt put incompetent government will have a few issues along the way, which is why they are still urging caution.
But hey, it’s some good news to convince us that the sacrifices have been worth it and that the sacrifices we make in Jan/Feb/March will be the last ones.
Probably can count on the govt chucking in one more semi lockdown in jan to try to keep blame off for increases in deaths after though so we'll have to endure that but hopefully the last of that crap.
MOTORVATOR said:
If you take just the population down to age 65 I think that is around 13 million to deal a vaccine out to (26m doses). Assuming the supply chain can keep up with it, which hopefully it will if the other vaccines get approval soon, how quickly can we get that done and dusted?
Assuming 1 million doses a week, that would be 6 months on the dot.MOTORVATOR said:
markyb_lcy said:
MOTORVATOR said:
markyb_lcy said:
I’m not “bragging” about anything. You’re misrepresenting me to say that I am.
Perhaps though if you want to occupy the moral high ground and criticise people who break laws, you should set your speed limiter to 70 the next time you’re on the motorway?
There's plenty of speed cameras out there to ensure that happens whether I agree with the imposition of speed limits or not, now be a good chap and try to comply with the law yourself without whining quite so much about it. Perhaps though if you want to occupy the moral high ground and criticise people who break laws, you should set your speed limiter to 70 the next time you’re on the motorway?
I’m just defending myself.I’ll take that that olive branch disguised as a cricket bat though :cheers:
All this on a day where you would expect rational discussion of the impact we may see from the announcement of vaccine approval and rollout but I can see even that has to be laced with pops at government etc above so may be pointless even attempting rationality.
The parallels with engaging with thick as mince remainers after Brexit has already happened are incredible.
We've spent the money, by law you need a face covering, democracy has decreed that you will be in a tiered part of the country for the coming weeks.
There's plenty of other threads where you can b
h about that to your hearts content. I personally avoid them as I don't care, it's history already!I am solely interested in looking forward, that we have one of a possible number of vaccines now, we still have a high level of hospitalised and a substantial daily death toll occurring and would like to consider where that all may go over the next few months so I can get my s
t togetherAnd I swear if you come back with yeah but PCR errors I will hunt you down with said cricket bat and not use it as you may imagine, but rather insert it vertically in a place you would rather I didn't.
The conditions were there for us to extract from a ungentlemanly chat in which you've made yourself look a little silly, in probably the most gentlemanly way we could, and you've instead come back with little sly digs.
LimJim said:
MOTORVATOR said:
If you take just the population down to age 65 I think that is around 13 million to deal a vaccine out to (26m doses). Assuming the supply chain can keep up with it, which hopefully it will if the other vaccines get approval soon, how quickly can we get that done and dusted?
Assuming 1 million doses a week, that would be 6 months on the dot.So flu jabs are doled out each year to 14m but I don't know over what timescale. You would assume they can upscale from that capability quite dramatically if they wanted to. Three months as a target?
MOTORVATOR said:
Might be a bit pessimistic.
So flu jabs are doled out each year to 14m but I don't know over what timescale. You would assume they can upscale from that capability quite dramatically if they wanted to. Three months as a target?
Flu is one shot not two so 14m flu would be 7m CV19. So flu jabs are doled out each year to 14m but I don't know over what timescale. You would assume they can upscale from that capability quite dramatically if they wanted to. Three months as a target?
However the NHS winter flu programme starts in Sept and aims to complete by end of Nov. October is the key month in terms number of doses administered, which from last years data NHSE managed 7.2m doses via GP’s by end of Oct with the end of Feb figure being 7.4m doses.
So the existing GP network can deliver approx 3.5m doses of flu vaccine per month. Then throw in pharmacies and actually there is an existing infrastructure to deliver a lot of vaccinations per month, before any additional means.
I’d expect that priority 1 to 5 groups (age 65+) could have received both shots in four months without needing mass vaccination centres. So just using primary care.
Getting down to group 9 (age 55 and all vulnerable), would need a scaled up programme.
Rolling it out to all adults more challenging and would need a simpler to administer vaccine than Pfizer. So AZN/Oxford or J&J basically, with real focus I can’t see why this couldn’t complete in time for winter 21.
However the DHSC guidance states that only going as far as group 9 would cover 99% of preventable deaths.
Vaccinating the general well population aged below 55 is a big programme that unless the vaccine used stops transmission has little, possibly no benefit. The little benefit is in covering previously unknown vulnerabilities.
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/priorit...
MOTORVATOR said:
Might be a bit pessimistic.
So flu jabs are doled out each year to 14m but I don't know over what timescale. You would assume they can upscale from that capability quite dramatically if they wanted to. Three months as a target?
They're hiring people to administer covid vaccines for 3-6 months. That could just be a default initial contract length, but I suspect it fits neatly with hoping to see the infection drop off by the summer again and then demand for the vaccine to have dropped off to the point it can be done via the usual routes after the summer.So flu jabs are doled out each year to 14m but I don't know over what timescale. You would assume they can upscale from that capability quite dramatically if they wanted to. Three months as a target?
https://vaccine-jobs.nhsp.uk/index.html
Hub said:
It may have already been discussed, but do they have any idea how long the vaccines will provide immunity for? We could be in a position of constant rolling immunisation with booster jabs etc!
Antibodies for it's cousin SARS have been shown to be long lastinghttps://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.12...
The pharmaceuticals will want annual jabs though and at the moment "science" has a sale on, so who knows what the "science" will say next year.
MX5Biologist said:
Disease surveillance won't halt, so the requirement for a booster will depend on if Sars-Cov-2 is still in circulation.
Isn't it also possible the impact of sars-cov2 simply reduces to something far more like one of the hcovs over time after the first round of vaccinations/infections that should leave some immune memory?Gassing Station | News, Politics & Economics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff