How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 15)

[roger.mellie]

jsf said:

You think it's governments job to run a business? Most SME dont trade outside the UK SM, those that do have had 4 years to prepare.

If you trade with EU, as others have correctly stated, deal or no deal the requirements are the same, we are leaving a customs union in both circumstances.

Brexit should have driven companies to reassess their supply chain as it's levelled up ROW options and as FTA develop that will only accelerate.

Yeah! fk business, their loss if they haven’t realised brexit is good for them! Am I doing this right?

[Helicopter123]

Tuna said:

Helicopter123 said:

If it means compromise on fish and the 'level playing field' then I'm delighted desperate that Boris is prepared to move.

FTFY.

The slightest concession from our side will be claimed to be a "tragic stand down" by those desperate to paint even a good deal as validation for the Remain position.

I'm assuming there will be some concessions - that's what negotiations are about - we'll see what those concessions are.

Of course we need to make concessions too if we want the FTA that we desperately need.

I don't think anyone still believes in the "cake and eat it it" nonsense being spouted previously.

Time to set politics to one side, and do a sensible, pragmatic FTA deal that preserves as many jobs possible, and minimises the economic shock of Brexit, especially with COVID still on the go.

[JNW1]

Murph7355 said:

roger.mellie said:

Crackie said:

How about the UK agrees to cap our annual state aid spending so as to not exceed French state aid spending during the past quarter of a century.

Qui serait raisonnable, non?

You’re being facetious but it could be argued that’s pretty much what they’re going to do if there’s to be a deal .

The UK would be quite happy with that as they’re not big on state aid (IMHO).

The bigger fight/prize is governance/arbitration.

There is no way we should be agreeing to any ties like this at all.

No need for it. And making assumptions on what the EU member states will and won't do in the next couple of decades, and how open they will be about it, would be a big mistake.

To be honest I see no reason why we shouldn't agree to something on state aid along similar lines to what's included in our recent FTA with Japan. Realistically I think it's difficult to enter an FTA whilst demanding an open-ended right to subsidise companies as in theory they are then able to undercut those of the other party as a consequence of the handouts they're receiving - we wouldn't be happy if UK companies were losing orders and contracts to EU companies who were being propped-up by government money and logically the same is going to apply in reverse!

However, IMO we do need to be clear about how any level playing field is enforced; in the event of a dispute there needs to be a mechanism for independent arbitration and that means final decisions cannot be a matter for EU institutions or courts.

[sunbeam alpine]

Borghetto said:

roger.mellie said:

No we’re not. I’m saying I’m in a position to compare and contrast the two jurisdiction’s approach and I’ve a strong opinion on which has done the better job. Would all those google hits have been there two years ago when there was the real prospect of failing to agree the WA?, I don’t know but I doubt it. I do know the Irish gov we’re sending out warning signals to industry at the time.

Edited by roger.mellie on Sunday 25th October 10:17

If you are capable of setting up and running a business, you should be more than able to work out how to negotiate the expected changes in EU relationship as it might impact you.

If only it were that simple. I import animal feed ingredients from the UK. There was quite a price rise as a result of the Brexit vote, but this was compensated by movements in Sterling so we weren't too badly affected.

If there's no FTA it will depend on whether tariffs are applied, and at what level. Depending on how the products are classified (there are 4 possibilities) the possible rates are 0%, 5%, 11% or 47%! We could live with 5%, 11% would be difficult, and 47% would kill it completely.

The only preparation I've been able to do is bring as much over this year as I can store. If I have to pay for storage it's not worth it.

[amusingduck]

sunbeam alpine said:

If there's no FTA it will depend on whether tariffs are applied, and at what level. Depending on how the products are classified (there are 4 possibilities) the possible rates are 0%, 5%, 11% or 47%! We could live with 5%, 11% would be difficult, and 47% would kill it completely.

Is that information not available now? What would be the change between now and no deal that provides the information, if not?

[sunbeam alpine]

amusingduck said:

sunbeam alpine said:

If there's no FTA it will depend on whether tariffs are applied, and at what level. Depending on how the products are classified (there are 4 possibilities) the possible rates are 0%, 5%, 11% or 47%! We could live with 5%, 11% would be difficult, and 47% would kill it completely.

Is that information not available now? What would be the change between now and no deal that provides the information, if not?

The product is a mixture of 4 ingredients. One of the ingredients (the largest by % inclusion) can be classified as "Animal Feed", "Fertiliser" or "Products of the chemical or allied industries" - all of which are rated differently. So long as they accept it's classification as "Animal Feed" we're OK.

In the great scale of things it's way too small to be worthy of anyone's attention - which worries me that they'll just lump it in with one of the other categories - but it could cost me €250.000 a year in sales.

[anonymous-user]

roger.mellie said:

Yeah! fk business, their loss if they haven’t realised brexit is good for them! Am I doing this right?

Only if you are a bit simple.

[don'tbesilly]

roger.mellie said:

don'tbesilly said:

roger.mellie said:

don'tbesilly said:

Johnson wasn't in any position to agree the WA two years ago, Johnson didn't become PM until end of July 2019, which is some 15 months ago.

Johnson's involvement with the WA occurred some months after taking up his position as PM, so realistically a year ago.

You got in before/during my edit .

Feel free to address my point.

Theresa May was the PM at the point in time you referred to, it's rather an irrelevance now, so your point as to what information was available back then is also irrelevant.

You are increasingly looking like a character from 'Viz' Roger, have your parents had a word yet?

No, it isn’t. My point that you haven’t addressed is that I think the Irish gov have done a better job than the uk on brexit prep. The speed with which some took offence on such a simple comment is revealing.

I do enjoy an oul’ ad hom as it’s usually evidence of a lack of a strong argument. Since you’re fond of giving it I’ll retort. You’re increasingly failing to live up to your username

You made this comment at 10.02:

roger.mellie said:

No we’re not. I’m saying I’m in a position to compare and contrast the two jurisdiction’s approach and I’ve a strong opinion on which has done the better job. Would all those google hits have been there two years ago when there was the real prospect of failing to agree the WA?, I don’t know but I doubt it. I do know the Irish gov we’re sending out warning signals to industry at the time.

Edited by roger.mellie on Sunday 25th October 10:17

With the exception of some making comments disagreeing with your comment/opinion, can you point out specifically which poster/s took offence at your comment, or perhaps you think you're opinion trumps anybody else's opinion, and a comment challenging your opinion is someone taking offence?

Does the opinion expressed based on what you thought two years ago and under an administration that ceased to exist 15 odd months ago still have any relevance today?

The amount/level of information available today in regards Brexit and the preparations required by UK businesses has been on the Govt website for months, some for years, (two at least).

I haven't looked at what's available for Irish businesses (not overly interested in honesty) so I can't comment on whether the info under either administration is better than the other, and I'm not sure how one could judge it, but if you think the Irish Govt have done a better job than the UK Govt, bully for you, would a chocolate teapot suffice as an award?

[Sway]

sunbeam alpine said:

amusingduck said:

sunbeam alpine said:

If there's no FTA it will depend on whether tariffs are applied, and at what level. Depending on how the products are classified (there are 4 possibilities) the possible rates are 0%, 5%, 11% or 47%! We could live with 5%, 11% would be difficult, and 47% would kill it completely.

Is that information not available now? What would be the change between now and no deal that provides the information, if not?

The product is a mixture of 4 ingredients. One of the ingredients (the largest by % inclusion) can be classified as "Animal Feed", "Fertiliser" or "Products of the chemical or allied industries" - all of which are rated differently. So long as they accept it's classification as "Animal Feed" we're OK.

In the great scale of things it's way too small to be worthy of anyone's attention - which worries me that they'll just lump it in with one of the other categories - but it could cost me €250.000 a year in sales.

If being brought in as a "finished good" it doesn't matter what the ingredients are - it's animal feed being imported, and classified as such.

These things aren't left open to interpretation.

[Sway]

roger.mellie said:

Sway said:

FTA or not makes absolutely zero difference to the prep needed to maintain goods flows post Jan...

Processes that are exceptionally simple and used for the majority of our international trade.

All that information from the RoI government didn't explain that for you?

You worded that carefully . FTA or not makes a hell of a lot of difference to businesses but you may be right on goods flow (I don’t pretend to be an expert).

The ROI proactively (the key word) helped me in getting some info, the uk didn’t, the movement of goods was not something I needed to know about.

The only difference FTA or not is tariffs. In terms of preparation, there's no difference. Tariffs are broadly meaningless in scale and impact. If they were materially important the flow wouldn't exist as fx shifts would kill it.

The UK has published it's new schedules - there's been plenty of opportunities to review against RoW landed prices.

[anonymous-user]

Sway said:

The only difference FTA or not is tariffs. In terms of preparation, there's no difference. Tariffs are broadly meaningless in scale and impact. If they were materially important the flow wouldn't exist as fx shifts would kill it.

The UK has published it's new schedules - there's been plenty of opportunities to review against RoW landed prices.

What is the nature and depth of your experience in global logistics?

As regards UK, track and trace sounds simple but look at the mess they've made of that.

[Sway]

rockin said:

Sway said:

The only difference FTA or not is tariffs. In terms of preparation, there's no difference. Tariffs are broadly meaningless in scale and impact. If they were materially important the flow wouldn't exist as fx shifts would kill it.

The UK has published it's new schedules - there's been plenty of opportunities to review against RoW landed prices.

What is the nature and depth of your experience in global logistics?

As regards UK, track and trace sounds simple but look at the mess they've made of that.

Design, implementation and refinement of global manufacturing and supply chains over two decades - current one being highly bespoke including restricted technologies and running at around half a billion a year in turnover and operating to AEO standards.

Prior experience includes FMCG, automotive, fresh produce, industrial electronics and a few service industries too (one being incredibly reliant on complex global replenishment).

Yours?

Edited by Sway on Sunday 25th October 20:52

[anonymous-user]

Sway said:

Yours?

Automotive, food & beverage, oil industry.

I would never suggest for one moment that the minefield of tariffs, regulations and practicalities is simple to navigate.

For instance, what do you do when your truck full of (a) perishable foodstuffs, or (b) just in time components for a car factory is stuck 136 trucks back in the queue for Calais?

[Sway]

rockin said:

Sway said:

Yours?

Automotive, food & beverage, oil industry.

I would never suggest for one moment that the minefield of tariffs, regulations and practicalities is simple to navigate.

For instance, what do you do when your truck full of (a) perishable foodstuffs, or (b) just in time components for a car factory is stuck 136 trucks back in the queue for Calais?

As a firm producing goods, importing materials and exporting finished goods - the "minefield" is significantly reduced and rarely changing. The vast majority of regs are irrespective of a customs border. Etc.

If you're running short life perishables or JIT components via Calais, you're an idiot. Irrespective of leaving the EU.

The fundamental key with JIT is to understand the variability in your resupply lead time. The higher the variability, the higher your base inventory holding requirements - and therefore the lower your efficiency in premises, handling and cash.

The route Calais/Dover has always had high variability.

[pilsdoughboy]

Sway said:

rockin said:

Sway said:

Yours?

Automotive, food & beverage, oil industry.

I would never suggest for one moment that the minefield of tariffs, regulations and practicalities is simple to navigate.

For instance, what do you do when your truck full of (a) perishable foodstuffs, or (b) just in time components for a car factory is stuck 136 trucks back in the queue for Calais?

As a firm producing goods, importing materials and exporting finished goods - the "minefield" is significantly reduced and rarely changing. The vast majority of regs are irrespective of a customs border. Etc.

If you're running short life perishables or JIT components via Calais, you're an idiot. Irrespective of leaving the EU.

The fundamental key with JIT is to understand the variability in your resupply lead time. The higher the variability, the higher your base inventory holding requirements - and therefore the lower your efficiency in premises, handling and cash.

The route Calais/Dover has always had high variability.

I do love this thread, I'm a simple painter and decorator that lives in Kent and worries about traffic jams. I don't take stock of what's on cross channel frieght but are there no transporters of perishables that use Dover - Calais or just idiot ones?

[Sway]

pilsdoughboy said:

Sway said:

rockin said:

Sway said:

Yours?

Automotive, food & beverage, oil industry.

I would never suggest for one moment that the minefield of tariffs, regulations and practicalities is simple to navigate.

For instance, what do you do when your truck full of (a) perishable foodstuffs, or (b) just in time components for a car factory is stuck 136 trucks back in the queue for Calais?

As a firm producing goods, importing materials and exporting finished goods - the "minefield" is significantly reduced and rarely changing. The vast majority of regs are irrespective of a customs border. Etc.

If you're running short life perishables or JIT components via Calais, you're an idiot. Irrespective of leaving the EU.

The fundamental key with JIT is to understand the variability in your resupply lead time. The higher the variability, the higher your base inventory holding requirements - and therefore the lower your efficiency in premises, handling and cash.

The route Calais/Dover has always had high variability.

I do love this thread, I'm a simple painter and decorator that lives in Kent and worries about traffic jams. I don't take stock of what's on cross channel frieght but are there no transporters of perishables that use Dover - Calais or just idiot ones?

There's a hell of a lot of "perishables" that have a rather longer shelf life under heavily controlled conditions than you'd think...

So, they do indeed travel Dover-Calais as RoRo. The cheap drivers make it worthwhile.

But, that's different to stuff that is really time critical. For that, especially if organising in advance, you'd be a bloody idiot to choose the least resilient and most likely to be disrupted route.

[pilsdoughboy]

Sway said:

There's a hell of a lot of "perishables" that have a rather longer shelf life under heavily controlled conditions than you'd think...

So, they do indeed travel Dover-Calais as RoRo. The cheap drivers make it worthwhile.

But, that's different to stuff that is really time critical. For that, especially if organising in advance, you'd be a bloody idiot to choose the least resilient and most likely to be disrupted route.

Fascinating info, thanks, so some perishables are not perishables and can last longer than people think? Like yogurts I guess, always seem to taste fine once the best before has long past, I'm still tucking into ones that have September dates on!

As for JIT, I thought the point was to be able to meet market demand, with enough advance planning would it still be just in time? How far ahead are the big boys in industry planning? And finally before I head to bed, if Dover - Calais is the least resilient and most likely to be disrupted route, which is the best cross channel route?

[Sway]

pilsdoughboy said:

Sway said:

There's a hell of a lot of "perishables" that have a rather longer shelf life under heavily controlled conditions than you'd think...

So, they do indeed travel Dover-Calais as RoRo. The cheap drivers make it worthwhile.

But, that's different to stuff that is really time critical. For that, especially if organising in advance, you'd be a bloody idiot to choose the least resilient and most likely to be disrupted route.

Fascinating info, thanks, so some perishables are not perishables and can last longer than people think? Like yogurts I guess, always seem to taste fine once the best before has long past, I'm still tucking into ones that have September dates on!

As for JIT, I thought the point was to be able to meet market demand, with enough advance planning would it still be just in time? How far ahead are the big boys in industry planning? And finally before I head to bed, if Dover - Calais is the least resilient and most likely to be disrupted route, which is the best cross channel route?

Some fresh produce you'd expect to last a few days at most can last weeks in a proper continuous environment that's tightly controlled. Modern varieties are very good at keeping fresh.

JIT is a broad topic - but in simple terms it's reducing the amount of inventory (of any kind) you hold by having the items you need arriving just as you need them. This can be broken down fractal like into structures which accommodate shipping movements across the globe that take several weeks which have huge volumes on board to supply a continent's worth of factories and are scheduled months in advance - through to micro replenishment of a production line that's geared towards single digit minutes if not seconds.

There are loads of cross channel routes. It's a long, long time since I've done a detailed analysis - but 'it depends' is a good answer. If cost is less of an issue, air freight is always quicker and smoother. The East Coast ports are pretty slick. It's a huge business in it's own right - and the ports are very competitive.

Dover-Calais is just crap - you'd never choose to place a major port where Dover is, hemmed in on all sides and barely enough room to swing (and reliant on a couple of roads). Calais is far too easy to blockade if you're a pissed off French farmer/fisherman/goat herder.

But, it's a short crossing time, and all being well reduced loading/unloading as the load stays on the lorry. It has it's place - but if you look at the volumes by port in the UK, you can see where wider business places it in the rankings...

[anonymous-user]

Sway said:

Dover-Calais is just crap - you'd never choose to place a major port where Dover is, hemmed in on all sides and barely enough room to swing (and reliant on a couple of roads).

Whatever next.

[B'stard Child]

Mrr T said:

jsf said:

Mrr T said:

Never sure if surveys such as this mean much. You would need to compare to a similar survey from 10 years ago and see if opinion had changed.

To me this just shows lots of people have always believed life was better in the past.

I am sure it does to you. You'd be wrong, as usual. 2008 onwards for lots of the working class of Europe has been a disaster, not all caused by EU policy but their screwups in the years that followed, especially until draghi gave his do whatever it takes speech, where the ECB started to act like a central bank (illegally under EU treaty) did huge damage.

Brexiter says everything is the fault of the EU. Now that's a surprise.

I’m still slightly irritated by the fact you were right about all the planes being grounded (as a result of brexit)

Still who could have predicted a virus could have a bigger impact than leaving a “club”