How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 15)

[Mrr T]

Crackie said:

roger.mellie said:

Thanks, obviously I haven’t had a chance to watch those links yet but I will give them a chance.

You could add Ireland to the list of countries the troika bullied and it’s one I’m much more familiar with. However, a quick google would indicate EU sentiment is still stronger than anti EU in those countries. Very much so in the case of Ireland. Largely as the populace recognise the benefits of membership.

To Paul and Murph’s point above. Heaven preserve us from governments that don’t enact the “will of the people” . As stated, brexit is done, it’s not the ball in play. Getting a good deal is. The level of public and industry support for no deal is extremely low so if you want a gov to honour “the will of the people” you’ll not support no deal.

With you 100% regarding the passage in bold.

Regarding the point you made about EU popularity. ...........The data here is 18 months old but I think the points raised, regarding citizens' opinion of the EU, are still pertinent. Who knows whether significant factors such as QMV, COVID response and debt mutualisation will have had a positive or negative impact? https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2019/03/19/euro...

The benefits of EU membership a clear but do tend to vary from country to country; it is hardly surprising that the net beneficiaries view membership so positively.

The following graph from the PEW report is interesting in relation to the point made earlier about wage suppression / stagnation. Particularly in the net contributing countries.

Never sure if surveys such as this mean much. You would need to compare to a similar survey from 10 years ago and see if opinion had changed.

To me this just shows lots of people have always believed life was better in the past.

[gooner1]

roger.mellie said:

Murph7355 said:

roger.mellie said:

My company is pretty well insulated from the potential impacts of brexit but I know many aren’t. Living in NI and regularly crossing the border it’s blatantly obvious how much more effort the Irish gov have put into preparing businesses vs the uk. I’m not saying they’ve done a perfect job but there’s a stark difference in the level of public campaigns etc, even things as simple as radio ads telling companies where to go for info. I’ve not checked but I’m reasonably sure some of that has been going on for at least 2 years.

I have little need for it in the line of work I'm in, but I've been hearing similar ads on UK radio for some time.

Literally 5secs searching on Google brings up loads of links, including a questionnaire type arrangement from the government website which provides plenty of detail (queue someone noting it doesn't cover their billion pound business exporting tie-dyed ostrich feathers to Bulgaria and how awful it all is).

Are we really saying that businesses who are critically dependent on EU trade cannot use Google? Visit the UK gov website? Or find other professional assistance if they really cannot self serve?

No we’re not. I’m saying I’m in a position to compare and contrast the two jurisdiction’s approach and I’ve a strong opinion on which has done the better job. Would all those google hits have been there two years ago when there was the real prospect of Boris failing to agree the WA?, I don’t know but I doubt it. I do know the Irish gov we’re sending out warning signals to industry at the time.

So you couldn’t be arsed to use Google to check. Oh dear.

[roger.mellie]

don'tbesilly said:

Johnson wasn't in any position to agree the WA two years ago, Johnson didn't become PM until end of July 2019, which is some 15 months ago.

Johnson's involvement with the WA occurred some months after taking up his position as PM, so realistically a year ago.

You got in before/during my edit .

Feel free to address my point.

[roger.mellie]

gooner1 said:

So you couldn’t be arsed to use Google to check. Oh dear.

And you have? And you have evidence that I’m wrong? Please do share.

I’m quite happy to let you google that for me.

Also, any gov who’s answer is “you should have googled that” is one that can FRO. As much as I hate the concept, I’ve been invited to multiple fat boy chamber of commerce lunches with presentations on things like the impact of brexit. They were all from the other side of the border.

[anonymous-user]

roger.mellie said:

They were all from the other side of the border.

So from Northern Ireland, then?

[Sway]

Murph7355 said:

I have little need for it in the line of work I'm in, but I've been hearing similar ads on UK radio for some time.

Literally 5secs searching on Google brings up loads of links, including a questionnaire type arrangement from the government website which provides plenty of detail (queue someone noting it doesn't cover their billion pound business exporting tie-dyed ostrich feathers to Bulgaria and how awful it all is).

Are we really saying that businesses who are critically dependent on EU trade cannot use Google? Visit the UK gov website? Or find other professional assistance if they really cannot self serve?

I do agree. The level of info and support is available for any normal business.

Sending goods to the EU is a doddle.

However, I will agree with Mike - he's in an industry I have some limited knowledge of, and it's one where there is no domestic competency. It was all managed via EU wide bodies.

The local body has gone into absolute paralysis. It simply doesn't have a clue what to do - as nothing is agreed until everything is agreed.

It'll be right down to the wire, although I'd suggest most have gone the route of dual certification.

[roger.mellie]

rockin said:

roger.mellie said:

They were all from the other side of the border.

So from Northern Ireland, then?

No.

I’m not saying that I think the Irish gov are some sort of shining light to the uk gov’s shame. But I do think that in comparison they’ve done a better job w.r.t. being open and honest about potential implications and what prep should be done as a result. There are some obvious reasons why that is easier for them than it is for the UK.

The uk have got their finger out and are addressing this as some have indicated but it’s being done much later down the road in comparison as far as I can tell. I’m not oblivious here, my employer has offices and is registered both sides of the border, that’s not a particularly unique position.

[anonymous-user]

Mrr T said:

Any connections between theses posts and reality is purely accidental.

Many brexiters seem unable to do much more than hate the EU.

You what mate?

You think professor Blyth is a fantasist?

[anonymous-user]

Crackie said:

MB is always interesting...........Here is a fairly recent, informal, commentary from him regarding the EU / Euro / Eurozone.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dIyYijA0h-8

I posted that to this thread when it went online. The anti brexit lot ignored it.

[Helicopter123]

Post-Brexit trade talks extended, says No 10

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-54681400

Highly encouraging news, let's hope a FTA can still be done.

If it means compromise on fish and the 'level playing field' then I'm delighted that Boris is prepared to move.

[don'tbesilly]

roger.mellie said:

don'tbesilly said:

Johnson wasn't in any position to agree the WA two years ago, Johnson didn't become PM until end of July 2019, which is some 15 months ago.

Johnson's involvement with the WA occurred some months after taking up his position as PM, so realistically a year ago.

You got in before/during my edit .

Feel free to address my point.

Theresa May was the PM at the point in time you referred to, it's rather an irrelevance now, so your point as to what information was available back then is also irrelevant.

You are increasingly looking like a character from 'Viz' Roger, have your parents had a word yet?

[anonymous-user]

Mrr T said:

Never sure if surveys such as this mean much. You would need to compare to a similar survey from 10 years ago and see if opinion had changed.

To me this just shows lots of people have always believed life was better in the past.

I am sure it does to you. You'd be wrong, as usual. 2008 onwards for lots of the working class of Europe has been a disaster, not all caused by EU policy but their screwups in the years that followed, especially until draghi gave his do whatever it takes speech, where the ECB started to act like a central bank (illegally under EU treaty) did huge damage.

[rigga]

Helicopter123 said:

Post-Brexit trade talks extended, says No 10

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-54681400

Highly encouraging news, let's hope a FTA can still be done.

If it means compromise on fish and the 'level playing field' then I'm delighted that Boris is prepared to move.

Why do you think Boris has to move? If the EU were so far from reality, as it appeared they were expecting the status quo on fishing for example, then its not just Boris that needs to compromise is it?

[loafer123]

Helicopter123 said:

Post-Brexit trade talks extended, says No 10

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-54681400

Highly encouraging news, let's hope a FTA can still be done.

If it means compromise on fish and the 'level playing field' then I'm delighted that Boris is prepared to move.

Epic trolling, Heli, but a little too obvious.

[hutchst]

rm163603 said:

I fear for my small business. Around 50% of sales are from the EU. Any delays at the border will be a disaster.

The webinars have been telling me stuff we don't need to know or already know but anything useful they don't know yet.

I wish someone could give me a tangible benefit of all this as it's looking like it's going to the end of many small businesses like mine who are also reeling from covid.

Anyone who thinks this is a good idea now is retarded

Shouldn't you be focusing on sweeping up the UK based consumers that are buying the same product (or service) from the EU, because your EU based competitors trading in the opposite direction will encounter exactly the same issues?

[PushedDover]

Helicopter123 said:

Post-Brexit trade talks extended, says No 10

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-54681400

Highly encouraging news, let's hope a FTA can still be done.

If it means compromise on fish and the 'level playing field' then I'm delighted that Boris is prepared to move.

The FTA is being held to ransom by stroppy French we have all seen, yet today :

Sunday times says : "Johnson is bluffing over ease of no-deal Brexit, says France
Sun says : "Macron ready to soften demands that Britain follows EU rules post-Brexit - as they could backfire on France"



Interesting that someone has had a word in Macrons ear

[Mrr T]

jsf said:

Mrr T said:

Never sure if surveys such as this mean much. You would need to compare to a similar survey from 10 years ago and see if opinion had changed.

To me this just shows lots of people have always believed life was better in the past.

I am sure it does to you. You'd be wrong, as usual. 2008 onwards for lots of the working class of Europe has been a disaster, not all caused by EU policy but their screwups in the years that followed, especially until draghi gave his do whatever it takes speech, where the ECB started to act like a central bank (illegally under EU treaty) did huge damage.

Brexiter says everything is the fault of the EU. Now that's a surprise.

[anonymous-user]

PushedDover said:

The FTA is being held to ransom by stroppy French we have all seen, yet today :

Sunday times says : "Johnson is bluffing over ease of no-deal Brexit, says France
Sun says : "Macron ready to soften demands that Britain follows EU rules post-Brexit - as they could backfire on France"



Interesting that someone has had a word in Macrons ear

If you watched the Committee meeting with Parliament and Gove and Frost you would have seen Frost say any state aid rules if written in normal FTA terms would see UK bringing disputes against the EU members regularly and would be of use to the UK.

[s2art]

Mrr T said:

jsf said:

Mrr T said:

Never sure if surveys such as this mean much. You would need to compare to a similar survey from 10 years ago and see if opinion had changed.

To me this just shows lots of people have always believed life was better in the past.

I am sure it does to you. You'd be wrong, as usual. 2008 onwards for lots of the working class of Europe has been a disaster, not all caused by EU policy but their screwups in the years that followed, especially until draghi gave his do whatever it takes speech, where the ECB started to act like a central bank (illegally under EU treaty) did huge damage.

Brexiter says everything is the fault of the EU. Now that's a surprise.

/quote]
Remoaner ignores the evidence. Now thats a surprise.

[anonymous-user]

Mrr T said:

jsf said:

Mrr T said:

Never sure if surveys such as this mean much. You would need to compare to a similar survey from 10 years ago and see if opinion had changed.

To me this just shows lots of people have always believed life was better in the past.

I am sure it does to you. You'd be wrong, as usual. 2008 onwards for lots of the working class of Europe has been a disaster, not all caused by EU policy but their screwups in the years that followed, especially until draghi gave his do whatever it takes speech, where the ECB started to act like a central bank (illegally under EU treaty) did huge damage.

Brexiter says everything is the fault of the EU. Now that's a surprise.

I literally said the oposite of that.