How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 15)

[Helicopter123]

rigga said:

Helicopter123 said:

Post-Brexit trade talks extended, says No 10

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-54681400

Highly encouraging news, let's hope a FTA can still be done.

If it means compromise on fish and the 'level playing field' then I'm delighted that Boris is prepared to move.

Why do you think Boris has to move? If the EU were so far from reality, as it appeared they were expecting the status quo on fishing for example, then its not just Boris that needs to compromise is it?

Both sides need to move.

I think the EU will move on fish, if we move on the level playing field.

[Troubleatmill]

Helicopter123 said:

rigga said:

Helicopter123 said:

Post-Brexit trade talks extended, says No 10

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-54681400

Highly encouraging news, let's hope a FTA can still be done.

If it means compromise on fish and the 'level playing field' then I'm delighted that Boris is prepared to move.

Why do you think Boris has to move? If the EU were so far from reality, as it appeared they were expecting the status quo on fishing for example, then its not just Boris that needs to compromise is it?

Both sides need to move.

I think the EU will move on fish, if we move on the level playing field.

Given your 100% track record on getting every prediction you have made wrong - you have just hexed it - and no-deal beckons.

[Tuna]

Helicopter123 said:

If it means compromise on fish and the 'level playing field' then I'm delighted desperate that Boris is prepared to move.

FTFY.

The slightest concession from our side will be claimed to be a "tragic stand down" by those desperate to paint even a good deal as validation for the Remain position.

I'm assuming there will be some concessions - that's what negotiations are about - we'll see what those concessions are.

[loafer123]

Helicopter123 said:

rigga said:

Helicopter123 said:

Post-Brexit trade talks extended, says No 10

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-54681400

Highly encouraging news, let's hope a FTA can still be done.

If it means compromise on fish and the 'level playing field' then I'm delighted that Boris is prepared to move.

Why do you think Boris has to move? If the EU were so far from reality, as it appeared they were expecting the status quo on fishing for example, then its not just Boris that needs to compromise is it?

Both sides need to move.

I think the EU will move on fish, if we move on the level playing field.

Allegedly they have decided that the level playing field is a bit of a risk to them, as we can sue them when they breach their own state aid rules, for example, which they do regularly.

[Crackie]

Helicopter123 said:

rigga said:

Helicopter123 said:

Post-Brexit trade talks extended, says No 10

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-54681400

Highly encouraging news, let's hope a FTA can still be done.

If it means compromise on fish and the 'level playing field' then I'm delighted that Boris is prepared to move.

Why do you think Boris has to move? If the EU were so far from reality, as it appeared they were expecting the status quo on fishing for example, then its not just Boris that needs to compromise is it?

Both sides need to move.

I think the EU will move on fish, if we move on the level playing field.

How about the UK agrees to cap our annual state aid spending so as to not exceed French state aid spending during the past quarter of a century.

Qui serait raisonnable, non?

[Crackie]

roger.mellie said:

Crackie said:

With you 100% regarding the passage in bold.

Regarding the point you made about EU popularity. ...........The data here is 18 months old but I think the points raised, regarding citizens' opinion of the EU, are still pertinent. Who knows whether significant factors such as QMV, COVID response and debt mutualisation will have had a positive or negative impact? https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2019/03/19/euro...

The benefits of EU membership a clear but do tend to vary from country to country; it is hardly surprising that the net beneficiaries view membership so positively.

The following graph from the PEW report is interesting in relation to the point made earlier about wage suppression / stagnation. Particularly in the net contributing countries.

Agreed that the benefits are not shared equally (it’s in some ways the point), however, the implicit assumption that net contributors are not beneficiaries is not a cut and dry argument.

Wage suppression is a big issue. I don’t think brexit is the answer to that problem in a globalised economy. If I did I’d probably have more support for some brexit arguments. I agree the disaffection created by it motivated the brexit vote but I don’t see how it’ll fix anything.

I agree with all of that.

I was a leaver but was extremely close to voting remain........

I didn't feel disaffected or impacted by EU membership / wage suppression and I certainly don't expect Brexit to be some kind of panacea that fixes everything. I do think there are significant benefits to being able to trade independently of the protectionist EU and this will bring benefits; EU FTAs were a compromise designed to suit the disparate needs of 26 other nations rather than specifically tailored to suit the UK.... having the freedom to negotiate FTA's independently will become increasingly significant on the global stage.

I think Frost has been serving us well.............hope he keeps the same form.

Anyone know what Crawford Falconer has been up to recently?

Edited by Crackie on Sunday 25th October 13:41

[roger.mellie]

Crackie said:

How about the UK agrees to cap our annual state aid spending so as to not exceed French state aid spending during the past quarter of a century.

Qui serait raisonnable, non?

You’re being facetious but it could be argued that’s pretty much what they’re going to do if there’s to be a deal .

The UK would be quite happy with that as they’re not big on state aid (IMHO).

The bigger fight/prize is governance/arbitration.

[roger.mellie]

don'tbesilly said:

roger.mellie said:

don'tbesilly said:

Johnson wasn't in any position to agree the WA two years ago, Johnson didn't become PM until end of July 2019, which is some 15 months ago.

Johnson's involvement with the WA occurred some months after taking up his position as PM, so realistically a year ago.

You got in before/during my edit .

Feel free to address my point.

Theresa May was the PM at the point in time you referred to, it's rather an irrelevance now, so your point as to what information was available back then is also irrelevant.

You are increasingly looking like a character from 'Viz' Roger, have your parents had a word yet?

No, it isn’t. My point that you haven’t addressed is that I think the Irish gov have done a better job than the uk on brexit prep. The speed with which some took offence on such a simple comment is revealing.

I do enjoy an oul’ ad hom as it’s usually evidence of a lack of a strong argument. Since you’re fond of giving it I’ll retort. You’re increasingly failing to live up to your username

[Sway]

roger.mellie said:

rockin said:

roger.mellie said:

They were all from the other side of the border.

So from Northern Ireland, then?

No.

I’m not saying that I think the Irish gov are some sort of shining light to the uk gov’s shame. But I do think that in comparison they’ve done a better job w.r.t. being open and honest about potential implications and what prep should be done as a result. There are some obvious reasons why that is easier for them than it is for the UK.

The uk have got their finger out and are addressing this as some have indicated but it’s being done much later down the road in comparison as far as I can tell. I’m not oblivious here, my employer has offices and is registered both sides of the border, that’s not a particularly unique position.

Guidance has been being sent direct to those believed to be impacted for months. For some things, longer.

[anonymous-user]

Sway said:

Guidance has been being sent direct to those believed to be impacted for months. For some things, longer.

My company has been receiving that for years.

If you are involved in trading with the EU and you haven't got systems in place to trade using WTO by now you are useless.

[Murph7355]

roger.mellie said:

No we’re not. I’m saying I’m in a position to compare and contrast the two jurisdiction’s approach and I’ve a strong opinion on which has done the better job. Would all those google hits have been there two years ago when there was the real prospect of failing to agree the WA?, I don’t know but I doubt it. I do know the Irish gov we’re sending out warning signals to industry at the time.

Different times Rog'.

Who was in charge back then?

May/Robbins managed to convince themselves that they would get a "leaving but not really" deal sorted. Cameron before them explicitly told the civil service not to prepare for an outcome he didn't think would happen either. Numpties the lot of them.

[Murph7355]

roger.mellie said:

Crackie said:

How about the UK agrees to cap our annual state aid spending so as to not exceed French state aid spending during the past quarter of a century.

Qui serait raisonnable, non?

You’re being facetious but it could be argued that’s pretty much what they’re going to do if there’s to be a deal .

The UK would be quite happy with that as they’re not big on state aid (IMHO).

The bigger fight/prize is governance/arbitration.

There is no way we should be agreeing to any ties like this at all.

No need for it. And making assumptions on what the EU member states will and won't do in the next couple of decades, and how open they will be about it, would be a big mistake.

[Murph7355]

jsf said:

....
If you are involved in trading with the EU and you haven't got systems in place to trade using WTO by now you are useless.

Exactly this.

"But it might be a waste of time an money" - indeed. But not doing might mean going out of business. Choices, choices.

(One might also suggest getting geared up that way might open up opportunities).

[Sway]

Murph7355 said:

jsf said:

....
If you are involved in trading with the EU and you haven't got systems in place to trade using WTO by now you are useless.

Exactly this.

"But it might be a waste of time an money" - indeed. But not doing might mean going out of business. Choices, choices.

(One might also suggest getting geared up that way might open up opportunities).

Point is, the prep is exactly the same whether there's a FTA or not.

The 'change' is the reintroduction of a customs border - which are entirely routine things for which every part of how to do it is well understood and done millions of times every single day.

[roger.mellie]

jsf said:

Sway said:

Guidance has been being sent direct to those believed to be impacted for months. For some things, longer.

My company has been receiving that for years.

If you are involved in trading with the EU and you haven't got systems in place to trade using WTO by now you are useless.

No. This is basically the blame business not the government argument. Not having it.

You might be alright jack, I will be too, many won’t. If your answer is that businesses should “suck it up” then don’t be surprised when they ask you to guess how many fingers they’re holding up.

It’s very obvious that many businesses that are struggling in the middle of a pandemic don’t have the additional bandwidth to deal with the governments failure to get a deal.

[roger.mellie]

Murph7355 said:

roger.mellie said:

No we’re not. I’m saying I’m in a position to compare and contrast the two jurisdiction’s approach and I’ve a strong opinion on which has done the better job. Would all those google hits have been there two years ago when there was the real prospect of failing to agree the WA?, I don’t know but I doubt it. I do know the Irish gov we’re sending out warning signals to industry at the time.

Different times Rog'.

Who was in charge back then?

May/Robbins managed to convince themselves that they would get a "leaving but not really" deal sorted. Cameron before them explicitly told the civil service not to prepare for an outcome he didn't think would happen either. Numpties the lot of them.

That’s a fair point and not one I’d dispute. But it doesn’t change my view that the current numpties have also done a poor job.

[Sway]

roger.mellie said:

jsf said:

Sway said:

Guidance has been being sent direct to those believed to be impacted for months. For some things, longer.

My company has been receiving that for years.

If you are involved in trading with the EU and you haven't got systems in place to trade using WTO by now you are useless.

No. This is basically the blame business not the government argument. Not having it.

You might be alright jack, I will be too, many won’t. If your answer is that businesses should “suck it up” then don’t be surprised when they ask you to guess how many fingers they’re holding up.

It’s very obvious that many businesses that are struggling in the middle of a pandemic don’t have the additional bandwidth to deal with the governments failure to get a deal.

FTA or not makes absolutely zero difference to the prep needed to maintain goods flows post Jan...

Processes that are exceptionally simple and used for the majority of our international trade.

All that information from the RoI government didn't explain that for you?

[anonymous-user]

roger.mellie said:

jsf said:

Sway said:

Guidance has been being sent direct to those believed to be impacted for months. For some things, longer.

My company has been receiving that for years.

If you are involved in trading with the EU and you haven't got systems in place to trade using WTO by now you are useless.

No. This is basically the blame business not the government argument. Not having it.

You might be alright jack, I will be too, many won’t. If your answer is that businesses should “suck it up” then don’t be surprised when they ask you to guess how many fingers they’re holding up.

It’s very obvious that many businesses that are struggling in the middle of a pandemic don’t have the additional bandwidth to deal with the governments failure to get a deal.

You think it's governments job to run a business? Most SME dont trade outside the UK SM, those that do have had 4 years to prepare.

If you trade with EU, as others have correctly stated, deal or no deal the requirements are the same, we are leaving a customs union in both circumstances.

Brexit should have driven companies to reassess their supply chain as it's levelled up ROW options and as FTA develop that will only accelerate.

[Borghetto]

roger.mellie said:

No we’re not. I’m saying I’m in a position to compare and contrast the two jurisdiction’s approach and I’ve a strong opinion on which has done the better job. Would all those google hits have been there two years ago when there was the real prospect of failing to agree the WA?, I don’t know but I doubt it. I do know the Irish gov we’re sending out warning signals to industry at the time.

Edited by roger.mellie on Sunday 25th October 10:17

If you are capable of setting up and running a business, you should be more than able to work out how to negotiate the expected changes in EU relationship as it might impact you.

[roger.mellie]

Sway said:

FTA or not makes absolutely zero difference to the prep needed to maintain goods flows post Jan...

Processes that are exceptionally simple and used for the majority of our international trade.

All that information from the RoI government didn't explain that for you?

You worded that carefully . FTA or not makes a hell of a lot of difference to businesses but you may be right on goods flow (I don’t pretend to be an expert).

The ROI proactively (the key word) helped me in getting some info, the uk didn’t, the movement of goods was not something I needed to know about.