How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 15)

[Murph7355]

roger.mellie said:

roger.mellie said:

It's been a slow couple of news days on brexit so here's a question I wondered about today. A few on this thread have stated reasons for movement of goods and point of origin being overplayed as issues. I don't claim to know enough on that so rarely bother getting involved in those technical discussions.

How right or wrong is Tony here? - https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1320634383...

See also the followup comment on a parliamentary question - https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1320716856...

Taking that thread at face value it would appear to be a worst of both worlds situation for some NI businesses.

I'm genuinely asking, I'm making no assertions on whether he's right or wrong.

For anyone that (understandably) doesn't like twitter - https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2020/1026/1173929-n...

AIUI the purpose of the protocol wasn't to give NI all the benefits of EU membership. It's unreasonable (IMO) to expect it to do so. To be fair to the EU I wouldn't want to be going through that sort of ball ache either.

I'm not entirely sure why its the "worst of both worlds" for them though.

There were always going to be some businesses more impacted than others. It would be interesting to see the stats on the number of businesses in NI who will be materially impacted by not having access to the EU's agreements with third nations.

[gooner1]

roger.mellie said:

gooner1 said:

Lovely, great and smashing but who actually took offence. Just the username(s) will suffice, we can supply our own ?? If required.

Is that a royal we or do you think you’re part of a gang?

I know this game, ignore my point and aim for internet brownie points by picking on one sentence. Still haven’t seen you post anything to refute the more relevant part of my post but that’s not the game you’re playing.

Picking on one blatantly incorrect sentence you mean roger?

Would you let a U.K. negotiator off in such a blasé manner? Would you bowlocks.

[Sway]

Legacywr said:

Just a quick note, I don’t know about other ports, but, Southampton isn’t a ferry port, so, there’ll be no lorries coming through there.

Roro is an awfully inefficient way of doing shipping...

It's ste for the environment to be shipping lorry tractor units around the place, and ships carry less goods for a given tonnage.

However, it's very handy when you can utilise exceptionally cheap (and whisper it, massively less regulated) continental drivers...

A great benefit of brexit will be shifting the percentage of goods even further away from Roro.

[Sway]

mike9009 said:

Legacywr said:

Just a quick note, I don’t know about other ports, but, Southampton isn’t a ferry port, so, there’ll be no lorries coming through there.

Red funnel?

I am sure Newhaven and Pompey are prepared though even though HMRC and BEIS are not aware.

Newhaven and Portsmouth are primarily ferry and cruise terminals.

Why would you use those for freight when you have 'proper' large cargo ports nearby to both?

Also, are you genuinely suggesting HMRC aren't aware of what ports and capacities there are? BEIS aren't the people to talk to either - look at the actual port companies for details of their expansions and capabilities.

[roger.mellie]

Murph7355 said:

AIUI the purpose of the protocol wasn't to give NI all the benefits of EU membership. It's unreasonable (IMO) to expect it to do so. To be fair to the EU I wouldn't want to be going through that sort of ball ache either.

I'm not entirely sure why its the "worst of both worlds" for them though.

There were always going to be some businesses more impacted than others. It would be interesting to see the stats on the number of businesses in NI who will be materially impacted by not having access to the EU's agreements with third nations.

Totally agreed that wasn't the purpose, I didn't mean to suggest it was. I think it was earthdweller that mentioned a while back that May's original deal (the one the DUP sunk) would have given NI something closer to that sort of status but it's long gone.

By worst of both worlds I mainly mean they're neither fully in nor fully out. Needing to comply with EU SM standards but having to trade as UK sourced produce for anything leaving the EU. I've zero knowledge of how many goods that will affect, but if you're the company producing them it will obviously matter.

There were always going to be some businesses more impacted no doubt. That's a different thing than saying there were always going to be some regions.

I agree it would be interesting to see some stats, but I suspect that those stats won't be available until we're doing post match analysis.

[Robertj21a]

Sway said:

Roro is an awfully inefficient way of doing shipping...

It's ste for the environment to be shipping lorry tractor units around the place, and ships carry less goods for a given tonnage.

However, it's very handy when you can utilise exceptionally cheap (and whisper it, massively less regulated) continental drivers...

A great benefit of brexit will be shifting the percentage of goods even further away from Roro.

Good point. Thank you.

[Digga]

Robertj21a said:

Sway said:

Roro is an awfully inefficient way of doing shipping...

It's ste for the environment to be shipping lorry tractor units around the place, and ships carry less goods for a given tonnage.

However, it's very handy when you can utilise exceptionally cheap (and whisper it, massively less regulated) continental drivers...

A great benefit of brexit will be shifting the percentage of goods even further away from Roro.

Good point. Thank you.

Not a bad point at all. It's not something I'd considered until seeing how places like Immingham handle 'unaccompanied' trailer freight. Cuts down need for moving either tractor units or drivers and thereby smaller ships.

[Earthdweller]

Digga said:

Robertj21a said:

Sway said:

Roro is an awfully inefficient way of doing shipping...

It's ste for the environment to be shipping lorry tractor units around the place, and ships carry less goods for a given tonnage.

However, it's very handy when you can utilise exceptionally cheap (and whisper it, massively less regulated) continental drivers...

A great benefit of brexit will be shifting the percentage of goods even further away from Roro.

Good point. Thank you.

Not a bad point at all. It's not something I'd considered until seeing how places like Immingham handle 'unaccompanied' trailer freight. Cuts down need for moving either tractor units or drivers and thereby smaller ships.

As an aside I was at Belfast port the other night waiting for the ferry to Liverpool and whilst waiting to board was watching the loading/unloading of trailers and containers

It’s really pretty impressive how efficient it is

The highlight however was watching the brand new cars being unloaded from the inbound Liverpool ferry .. the cars were on the top open deck and were being handbrake turned on board then coming off the rear ramp and across the dock at warp speed

There was a battered old transit collecting the drivers and flying back up for them to do it again and again and again

They were being absolutely thrashed

[mike9009]

Sway said:

mike9009 said:

Legacywr said:

Just a quick note, I don’t know about other ports, but, Southampton isn’t a ferry port, so, there’ll be no lorries coming through there.

Red funnel?

I am sure Newhaven and Pompey are prepared though even though HMRC and BEIS are not aware.

Newhaven and Portsmouth are primarily ferry and cruise terminals.

Why would you use those for freight when you have 'proper' large cargo ports nearby to both?

Also, are you genuinely suggesting HMRC aren't aware of what ports and capacities there are? BEIS aren't the people to talk to either - look at the actual port companies for details of their expansions and capabilities.

I am suggesting that the only port setup for faster transit and customs clearance post Brexit is Dover or the five overspill sites all based in Kent. I am suggesting that HMRC are fully aware, but would not answer the question. AFAIK the customs clearances need to be completed by UK Gov agencies not port companies in order to ensure compliance with WTO regs.

Roros are used because they provide far faster transit between neighbouring countries than container shipments. If Kent becomes a bottleneck, other ports will be sought for HGV transit from the EU to the UK by many companies. I am suggesting there is no contingency at the other roro ports, unless a quick Google search reveals something I have not spotted.

Luckily, COVID has probably dampened trade, so the pre-planning will probably be okay......

Luckily Brexit won't impact our company as COVID has almost killed it.

[Earthdweller]

mike9009 said:

I am suggesting that the only port setup for faster transit and customs clearance post Brexit is Dover or the five overspill sites all based in Kent. I am suggesting that HMRC are fully aware, but would not answer the question. AFAIK the customs clearances need to be completed by UK Gov agencies not port companies in order to ensure compliance with WTO regs.

Roros are used because they provide far faster transit between neighbouring countries than container shipments. If Kent becomes a bottleneck, other ports will be sought for HGV transit from the EU to the UK by many companies. I am suggesting there is no contingency at the other roro ports, unless a quick Google search reveals something I have not spotted.

Luckily, COVID has probably dampened trade, so the pre-planning will probably be okay......

Luckily Brexit won't impact our company as COVID has almost killed it.

I’m forever getting on/off ferries

Yes there are lots of tractor/trailer units but an awful lot of trailers on there own on the ferries seems to me far more than there used to be

There’s always a long line of tractor units waiting at the port to hook up and go once the trailers are unloaded

Granted I don’t travel through Dover ( hardly ever ) but I’m back and over between Ireland and U.K.

[rigga]

Earthdweller said:

The highlight however was watching the brand new cars being unloaded from the inbound Liverpool ferry .. the cars were on the top open deck and were being handbrake turned on board then coming off the rear ramp and across the dock at warp speed

There was a battered old transit collecting the drivers and flying back up for them to do it again and again and again

They were being absolutely thrashed

Always been the case, made more laughable by those subsequent owners, who are then precious about running the car in.

[FiF]

Earthdweller said:

mike9009 said:

I am suggesting that the only port setup for faster transit and customs clearance post Brexit is Dover or the five overspill sites all based in Kent. I am suggesting that HMRC are fully aware, but would not answer the question. AFAIK the customs clearances need to be completed by UK Gov agencies not port companies in order to ensure compliance with WTO regs.

Roros are used because they provide far faster transit between neighbouring countries than container shipments. If Kent becomes a bottleneck, other ports will be sought for HGV transit from the EU to the UK by many companies. I am suggesting there is no contingency at the other roro ports, unless a quick Google search reveals something I have not spotted.

Luckily, COVID has probably dampened trade, so the pre-planning will probably be okay......

Luckily Brexit won't impact our company as COVID has almost killed it.

I’m forever getting on/off ferries

Yes there are lots of tractor/trailer units but an awful lot of trailers on there own on the ferries seems to me far more than there used to be

There’s always a long line of tractor units waiting at the port to hook up and go once the trailers are unloaded

Granted I don’t travel through Dover ( hardly ever ) but I’m back and over between Ireland and U.K.

It's the same at other ports, even services which do carry cars and Roro traffic there are always many more trailers than tractor/trailer units, eg Harwich ferries, rows and rows of reefers all hooked up with refrigeration units running.

[don'tbesilly]

mike9009 said:

Sway said:

mike9009 said:

Legacywr said:

Just a quick note, I don’t know about other ports, but, Southampton isn’t a ferry port, so, there’ll be no lorries coming through there.

Red funnel?

I am sure Newhaven and Pompey are prepared though even though HMRC and BEIS are not aware.

Newhaven and Portsmouth are primarily ferry and cruise terminals.

Why would you use those for freight when you have 'proper' large cargo ports nearby to both?

Also, are you genuinely suggesting HMRC aren't aware of what ports and capacities there are? BEIS aren't the people to talk to either - look at the actual port companies for details of their expansions and capabilities.

I am suggesting that the only port setup for faster transit and customs clearance post Brexit is Dover or the five overspill sites all based in Kent. I am suggesting that HMRC are fully aware, but would not answer the question. AFAIK the customs clearances need to be completed by UK Gov agencies not port companies in order to ensure compliance with WTO regs.

Roros are used because they provide far faster transit between neighbouring countries than container shipments. If Kent becomes a bottleneck, other ports will be sought for HGV transit from the EU to the UK by many companies. I am suggesting there is no contingency at the other roro ports, unless a quick Google search reveals something I have not spotted.

Luckily, COVID has probably dampened trade, so the pre-planning will probably be okay......

Luckily Brexit won't impact our company as COVID has almost killed it.

Sorry to hear that Mike, I do hope it works out for you and your colleagues

[Sway]

mike9009 said:

Sway said:

mike9009 said:

Legacywr said:

Just a quick note, I don’t know about other ports, but, Southampton isn’t a ferry port, so, there’ll be no lorries coming through there.

Red funnel?

I am sure Newhaven and Pompey are prepared though even though HMRC and BEIS are not aware.

Newhaven and Portsmouth are primarily ferry and cruise terminals.

Why would you use those for freight when you have 'proper' large cargo ports nearby to both?

Also, are you genuinely suggesting HMRC aren't aware of what ports and capacities there are? BEIS aren't the people to talk to either - look at the actual port companies for details of their expansions and capabilities.

I am suggesting that the only port setup for faster transit and customs clearance post Brexit is Dover or the five overspill sites all based in Kent. I am suggesting that HMRC are fully aware, but would not answer the question. AFAIK the customs clearances need to be completed by UK Gov agencies not port companies in order to ensure compliance with WTO regs.

Roros are used because they provide far faster transit between neighbouring countries than container shipments. If Kent becomes a bottleneck, other ports will be sought for HGV transit from the EU to the UK by many companies. I am suggesting there is no contingency at the other roro ports, unless a quick Google search reveals something I have not spotted.

Luckily, COVID has probably dampened trade, so the pre-planning will probably be okay......

Luckily Brexit won't impact our company as COVID has almost killed it.

As you know Mike, the place I'm at is under immense pressure too at the moment. Hope it all clears swiftly - certainly the RPKs seem to be bouncing back very swiftly once governments permit them to.

On ports - the only thing about Dover is that as it is so constrained physically, there are the satellite sites being setup. The processes there are going to be exactly the same as everywhere else.

Containerised freight is staggeringly efficient - and the transfers are rapid too. Especially where ports actually have space!

There are Roro facilities at some of our biggest ports, should it be absolutely necessary (I genuinely struggle to see why it would be...). Lots of those ports have been increasing capacity too, and investing in infrastructure and manpower.

I genuinely cannot foresee an issue come January for firms that have put in a little thought (and have good logistics partners - which I'll refrain from commenting on as last time someone got the hump when I compared qualities of British and German haulage firms!).

[anonymous-user]

roger.mellie said:

roger.mellie said:

It's been a slow couple of news days on brexit so here's a question I wondered about today. A few on this thread have stated reasons for movement of goods and point of origin being overplayed as issues. I don't claim to know enough on that so rarely bother getting involved in those technical discussions.

How right or wrong is Tony here? - https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1320634383...

See also the followup comment on a parliamentary question - https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1320716856...

Taking that thread at face value it would appear to be a worst of both worlds situation for some NI businesses.

I'm genuinely asking, I'm making no assertions on whether he's right or wrong.

For anyone that (understandably) doesn't like twitter - https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2020/1026/1173929-n...

Roger irrelevant is desperate to be heard, has nobody read this!?

[PushedDover]

digimeistter said:

Roger irrelevant is desperate to be heard, has nobody read this!?

No.

Boy cried wolf means CBA engaging anymore.

[pilsdoughboy]

Sway said:

As you know Mike, the place I'm at is under immense pressure too at the moment. Hope it all clears swiftly - certainly the RPKs seem to be bouncing back very swiftly once governments permit them to.

On ports - the only thing about Dover is that as it is so constrained physically, there are the satellite sites being setup. The processes there are going to be exactly the same as everywhere else.

Containerised freight is staggeringly efficient - and the transfers are rapid too. Especially where ports actually have space!

There are Roro facilities at some of our biggest ports, should it be absolutely necessary (I genuinely struggle to see why it would be...). Lots of those ports have been increasing capacity too, and investing in infrastructure and manpower.

I genuinely cannot foresee an issue come January for firms that have put in a little thought (and have good logistics partners - which I'll refrain from commenting on as last time someone got the hump when I compared qualities of British and German haulage firms!).

I would certainly love to share your optimism and would also love to see reduction in RoRo traffic but as you stated, it's very cheap and easy.
I also agree that Dover is a tiny little port and the tunnel hasn't got much space either. I've read news stories about funds being available for ports and ferry companies but are they ready? If Dover can't cope, are other ports ready to rock? can all ferries use the same ramps for example? is the manpower available to run another port?
Reading the gov.uk website talking about the permit system and Operation Brock fills me with sadness. Operation stack is a simple enough affair but it only takes one or two rogue drivers to bring Dover to a grinding stop. Brock is another level and requires drivers to have the correct permits pre filled and queue in the right place, I hope I'm wrong but I can only see it being a nightmare.

[mike9009]

Earthdweller said:

mike9009 said:

I am suggesting that the only port setup for faster transit and customs clearance post Brexit is Dover or the five overspill sites all based in Kent. I am suggesting that HMRC are fully aware, but would not answer the question. AFAIK the customs clearances need to be completed by UK Gov agencies not port companies in order to ensure compliance with WTO regs.

Roros are used because they provide far faster transit between neighbouring countries than container shipments. If Kent becomes a bottleneck, other ports will be sought for HGV transit from the EU to the UK by many companies. I am suggesting there is no contingency at the other roro ports, unless a quick Google search reveals something I have not spotted.

Luckily, COVID has probably dampened trade, so the pre-planning will probably be okay......

Luckily Brexit won't impact our company as COVID has almost killed it.

I’m forever getting on/off ferries

Yes there are lots of tractor/trailer units but an awful lot of trailers on there own on the ferries seems to me far more than there used to be

There’s always a long line of tractor units waiting at the port to hook up and go once the trailers are unloaded

Granted I don’t travel through Dover ( hardly ever ) but I’m back and over between Ireland and U.K.

I live on the Isle of Wight, I use ferries pretty frequently too plus trips over to France but that was ruined this year....

[stongle]

Heres one for all the EU maxamalists and budding Carl Icham's (not).

https://uk.reuters.com/article/UKNews1/idUKKBN27C0...

If you read the article, it talks about HSBC selling their French retail division at a loss. As I posted several pages back, you'd need your headtesting if you want to open up a retail bank at present; doublely so in the EUzone. Firms will not locate in the EU if the underlying economics don't make sense, and they don't.

Talk all you want about passporting, but you cannot make core banking work (or attractive to firms) if you have a long term negative rate expectation. The only reason there is a trickle into the zone is to advantage regulatory or prudential arbitrage.

Its just another example of false flag or poor technical understanding pushed by maxamalists and piss poor media reporting.

Of course the global outlook is pants, but selling out at a loss is a dire course of action. On a wider industry scale, it is signalling the start of the great FS job bloodbath that has been in the post for a while now. There isn't enough income to support costs, something is going to give...

Whats quite interesting or paradoxical is the ECs constant rhetoric that they need an FS system independent from London, but can't do without our fish. Perhaps we should be linking the 2 together NOT them.

[Unknown_User]

stongle said:

Heres one for all the EU maxamalists and budding Carl Icham's (not).

https://uk.reuters.com/article/UKNews1/idUKKBN27C0...

If you read the article, it talks about HSBC selling their French retail division at a loss. As I posted several pages back, you'd need your headtesting if you want to open up a retail bank at present; doublely so in the EUzone. Firms will not locate in the EU if the underlying economics don't make sense, and they don't.

Talk all you want about passporting, but you cannot make core banking work (or attractive to firms) if you have a long term negative rate expectation. The only reason there is a trickle into the zone is to advantage regulatory or prudential arbitrage.

Its just another example of false flag or poor technical understanding pushed by maxamalists and piss poor media reporting.

Of course the global outlook is pants, but selling out at a loss is a dire course of action. On a wider industry scale, it is signalling the start of the great FS job bloodbath that has been in the post for a while now. There isn't enough income to support costs, something is going to give...

Whats quite interesting or paradoxical is the ECs constant rhetoric that they need an FS system independent from London, but can't do without our fish. Perhaps we should be linking the 2 together NOT them.

Do you mean Paul Icahn? (not)!