How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 15)
Discussion
Unknown_User said:
stongle said:
Unknown_User said:
Do you mean Paul Icahn? (not)!
No, Carl Ichan (he's a activist investor / raider dependent on perspective). 61st wealthiest person in the world. Who the f
k is Paul Ichan?
In seriousness, I'd love someone to actually explain the ECs position on Fish and Finance (since Macron and historically Varadakar linked them). The current situation is, you can't deal EU shares from London (unless one of 60 odd that are GBP listed); but they need all the fish? I mean you can go into a negotiation and say "everything, mine"; but the optics of that look all wrong.
Of course, the EC have now linked fish and energy together; I'd suggest they are reaching; just not quite far enough for a rub & tug. Yet.
stongle said:
Heres one for all the EU maxamalists and budding Carl Icham's (not).
https://uk.reuters.com/article/UKNews1/idUKKBN27C0...
If you read the article, it talks about HSBC selling their French retail division at a loss. As I posted several pages back, you'd need your headtesting if you want to open up a retail bank at present; doublely so in the EUzone. Firms will not locate in the EU if the underlying economics don't make sense, and they don't.
Talk all you want about passporting, but you cannot make core banking work (or attractive to firms) if you have a long term negative rate expectation. The only reason there is a trickle into the zone is to advantage regulatory or prudential arbitrage.
Its just another example of false flag or poor technical understanding pushed by maxamalists and piss poor media reporting.
Of course the global outlook is pants, but selling out at a loss is a dire course of action. On a wider industry scale, it is signalling the start of the great FS job bloodbath that has been in the post for a while now. There isn't enough income to support costs, something is going to give...
Whats quite interesting or paradoxical is the ECs constant rhetoric that they need an FS system independent from London, but can't do without our fish. Perhaps we should be linking the 2 together NOT them.
You seem to believe FS is just retail banking and treasury. Not sure where you worked but did you ever wonder what all the other people in the building where doing? https://uk.reuters.com/article/UKNews1/idUKKBN27C0...
If you read the article, it talks about HSBC selling their French retail division at a loss. As I posted several pages back, you'd need your headtesting if you want to open up a retail bank at present; doublely so in the EUzone. Firms will not locate in the EU if the underlying economics don't make sense, and they don't.
Talk all you want about passporting, but you cannot make core banking work (or attractive to firms) if you have a long term negative rate expectation. The only reason there is a trickle into the zone is to advantage regulatory or prudential arbitrage.
Its just another example of false flag or poor technical understanding pushed by maxamalists and piss poor media reporting.
Of course the global outlook is pants, but selling out at a loss is a dire course of action. On a wider industry scale, it is signalling the start of the great FS job bloodbath that has been in the post for a while now. There isn't enough income to support costs, something is going to give...
Whats quite interesting or paradoxical is the ECs constant rhetoric that they need an FS system independent from London, but can't do without our fish. Perhaps we should be linking the 2 together NOT them.
Based on the article HSBC are selling the old CCF retail business. The fact is retail banking has never been very profitable. Its use was to sell add on products. Investments, insurance, etc, etc. With the Internet that use has deminished.
While the papers have reported banks closing EU customers accounts in the scheme of things thats small beer.
Passporting is about selling wholesale services to large institutions. A quick look at the large institutions in the EU (I can only find a list which included UK) shows why you need the business.
https://www.globaldatabase.com/amp/top-50-companie...
The services vary from the stars such as M&A and issuance, to the more mundain such as cash management, trade finance, my old beat custody, and lots more. You want to sell those services to EU institutions from end trans your sales team plus many of the key operational roles will be within the EU.
The fact is FS is not just banking its also about fund management, legal, accounting etc etc.
Edited by Mrr T on Tuesday 27th October 09:20
stongle said:
Of course, the EC have now linked fish and energy together; I'd suggest they are reaching; just not quite far enough for a rub & tug. Yet.
I would suggest by energy you mean electricity. The link is the UK has one and France wants access and the other France has and its likely the UK needs access. stongle said:
Unknown_User said:
stongle said:
Unknown_User said:
Do you mean Paul Icahn? (not)!
No, Carl Ichan (he's a activist investor / raider dependent on perspective). 61st wealthiest person in the world. Who the fk is Paul Ichan?In seriousness, I'd love someone to actually explain the ECs position on Fish and Finance (since Macron and historically Varadakar linked them). The current situation is, you can't deal EU shares from London (unless one of 60 odd that are GBP listed); but they need all the fish? I mean you can go into a negotiation and say "everything, mine"; but the optics of that look all wrong.
Of course, the EC have now linked fish and energy together; I'd suggest they are reaching; just not quite far enough for a rub & tug. Yet.
roger.mellie said:
...
There were always going to be some businesses more impacted no doubt. That's a different thing than saying there were always going to be some regions.
I agree it would be interesting to see some stats, but I suspect that those stats won't be available until we're doing post match analysis.
https://www.nisra.gov.uk/sites/nisra.gov.uk/files/publications/Overview-of-NI-Trade-Infographic-April-2020.pdfThere were always going to be some businesses more impacted no doubt. That's a different thing than saying there were always going to be some regions.
I agree it would be interesting to see some stats, but I suspect that those stats won't be available until we're doing post match analysis.
Regions are simply (very, and from an economic perspective) made up of businesses ...if businesses of a given type are more prevalent in one region than others then of course they were always going to get knobbled. Fortunately because of much procrastination they've had 4yrs to look at that.
However, I suspect the topic we're discussing might be being overplayed looking at the infographic above.
7% of NI trade goes to RoW. Of the top 5 export partners, only Canada and the US are outside of the EU. The EU doesn't have an FTA with the US and Canada only recently...which the UK are likely to be hot on the heels of anyway. So material impacts? Macro level they don't seem much. That will be scant consolation to the company who has 100% of their output going to Albania...but there were always going to be edge cases.
Murph7355 said:
roger.mellie said:
...
There were always going to be some businesses more impacted no doubt. That's a different thing than saying there were always going to be some regions.
I agree it would be interesting to see some stats, but I suspect that those stats won't be available until we're doing post match analysis.
https://www.nisra.gov.uk/sites/nisra.gov.uk/files/publications/Overview-of-NI-Trade-Infographic-April-2020.pdfThere were always going to be some businesses more impacted no doubt. That's a different thing than saying there were always going to be some regions.
I agree it would be interesting to see some stats, but I suspect that those stats won't be available until we're doing post match analysis.
Regions are simply (very, and from an economic perspective) made up of businesses ...if businesses of a given type are more prevalent in one region than others then of course they were always going to get knobbled. Fortunately because of much procrastination they've had 4yrs to look at that.
However, I suspect the topic we're discussing might be being overplayed looking at the infographic above.
7% of NI trade goes to RoW. Of the top 5 export partners, only Canada and the US are outside of the EU. The EU doesn't have an FTA with the US and Canada only recently...which the UK are likely to be hot on the heels of anyway. So material impacts? Macro level they don't seem much. That will be scant consolation to the company who has 100% of their output going to Albania...but there were always going to be edge cases.
Which, let's not forget, the EU decided they didn't want to accommodate CoO flexibility when the UK requested it in relation to electric vehicles...
Sway said:
Seems it's rather more to do with RoI exports being able to use NI materials as part of "EU content".
Which, let's not forget, the EU decided they didn't want to accommodate CoO flexibility when the UK requested it in relation to electric vehicles...
What goes around comes around. Which, let's not forget, the EU decided they didn't want to accommodate CoO flexibility when the UK requested it in relation to electric vehicles...
(For both sides, before anyone accuses me of putting my Union Jack underpants on and being too jingoistic
).Mrr T said:
You seem to believe FS is just retail banking and treasury. Not sure where you worked but did you ever wonder what all the other people in the building where doing?
Based on the article HSBC are selling the old CCF retail business. The fact is retail banking has never been very profitable. Its use was to sell add on products. Investments, insurance, etc, etc. With the Internet that use has deminished.
While the papers have reported banks closing EU customers accounts in the scheme of things thats small beer.
Passporting is about selling wholesale services to large institutions. A quick look at the large institutions in the EU (I can only find a list which included UK) shows why you need the business.
https://www.globaldatabase.com/amp/top-50-companie...
The services vary from the stars such as M&A and issuance, to the more mundain such as cash management, trade finance, my old beat custody, and lots more. You want to sell those services to EU institutions from end trans your sales team plus many of the key operational roles will be within the EU.
The fact is FS is not just banking its also about fund management, legal, accounting etc etc.
Absolutely not happening, the numbers have repeatedly proved you wrong. I've worked across the banking and client spectrum, and unfortunately have a very good grasp of where the money comes from. Particularly in the casino / IB end. The only time you speak to the retail guys is to rape their liquidity models and get free prolongation (quite difficult in the UK given the Vickers report and seperation, Europe hahaha, oooops). We also moved all our beta business / low margin activity back to Europe in 2015 and kept high value in London.Based on the article HSBC are selling the old CCF retail business. The fact is retail banking has never been very profitable. Its use was to sell add on products. Investments, insurance, etc, etc. With the Internet that use has deminished.
While the papers have reported banks closing EU customers accounts in the scheme of things thats small beer.
Passporting is about selling wholesale services to large institutions. A quick look at the large institutions in the EU (I can only find a list which included UK) shows why you need the business.
https://www.globaldatabase.com/amp/top-50-companie...
The services vary from the stars such as M&A and issuance, to the more mundain such as cash management, trade finance, my old beat custody, and lots more. You want to sell those services to EU institutions from end trans your sales team plus many of the key operational roles will be within the EU.
The fact is FS is not just banking its also about fund management, legal, accounting etc etc.
Edited by Mrr T on Tuesday 27th October 09:20
M&A activity, can be done from London.
Custody, makes mickey mouse money unless you can sell add on services such as Lending (which the biggest income streams come from yield enhancement or short covering borrows - both ethically debatable). I happen to know what the Fee splits Norges is on, and its a total loss leader for the service provider. Same I've been bent over by SAMA, ADIA and KIA in the past; these are not hugely profitable when you have to properly capitalise them (i.e. collateral gap risk).
As for selling to these Large Institutions - it simply doesn't work the way you think. Large Institutions set their own terms in many cases; but once in are not easily disintermediated from their primary bank or service provider. Many of the really large firms buy alpha.
And as for the comments on Legal, what language does FS document in and under which applicable law (give you a clue its not French)?
Accounting, again UK dominated. Fintech ditto, and that is a significant risk to the employees given the inability to generate profits. Even with Frances 8.5bn subsidy fund of fund investments - not going to move the needle from London.
Even if you look at fund management, where the servicing is quite centralised in Lux; investment making decision is not.....
The attrition to Europe is much exaggerated.
But the actual point is, the EC keep wanting a max across the board. And please stop being so pedantic energy / electricity; same thing.
Mrr T said:
stongle said:
Of course, the EC have now linked fish and energy together; I'd suggest they are reaching; just not quite far enough for a rub & tug. Yet.
I would suggest by energy you mean electricity. The link is the UK has one and France wants access and the other France has and its likely the UK needs access. Wonder how EU 'solidarity' will go when France has no fish and is plundering Irish waters and Ireland has no energy because Macron over reached?
stongle said:
And please stop being so pedantic energy / electricity; same thing.
He's not being pedantic, he wants to separate energy and electricity because it suits him to argue that Ireland is self sufficient in electricity. Which it is. When the wind blows. But it's not self sufficient at all when it come to the energy that is used to create the electricity.....
And it's imports aren't classes as UK imports, though they rely on the UK to get there.
Obviously even the EU call it the single market in ......energy.
The UK cost in losing access to French electricity is that we turn the wind off and the gas up. For Ireland it's game over.
paulrockliffe said:
Mrr T said:
stongle said:
Of course, the EC have now linked fish and energy together; I'd suggest they are reaching; just not quite far enough for a rub & tug. Yet.
I would suggest by energy you mean electricity. The link is the UK has one and France wants access and the other France has and its likely the UK needs access. Wonder how EU 'solidarity' will go when France has no fish and is plundering Irish waters and Ireland has no energy because Macron over reached?
Mrr T said:
paulrockliffe said:
Mrr T said:
stongle said:
Of course, the EC have now linked fish and energy together; I'd suggest they are reaching; just not quite far enough for a rub & tug. Yet.
I would suggest by energy you mean electricity. The link is the UK has one and France wants access and the other France has and its likely the UK needs access. Wonder how EU 'solidarity' will go when France has no fish and is plundering Irish waters and Ireland has no energy because Macron over reached?
Now that’s probably fine for Macron who switches off the interconnector from France to the U.K. .. no real hardship for him
But actions have unintended consequences and ROI relies on the interconnections from the U.K. for most of its power
Ireland only produces around 30% of the energy it needs ... the rest comes mostly from the U.K. and virtually all comes through the U.K.
Earthdweller said:
Mrr T said:
paulrockliffe said:
Mrr T said:
stongle said:
Of course, the EC have now linked fish and energy together; I'd suggest they are reaching; just not quite far enough for a rub & tug. Yet.
I would suggest by energy you mean electricity. The link is the UK has one and France wants access and the other France has and its likely the UK needs access. Wonder how EU 'solidarity' will go when France has no fish and is plundering Irish waters and Ireland has no energy because Macron over reached?
Now that’s probably fine for Macron who switches off the interconnector from France to the U.K. .. no real hardship for him
But actions have unintended consequences and ROI relies on the interconnections from the U.K. for most of its power
Ireland only produces around 30% of the energy it needs ... the rest comes mostly from the U.K. and virtually all comes through the U.K.
Mrr T said:
paulrockliffe said:
Mrr T said:
stongle said:
Of course, the EC have now linked fish and energy together; I'd suggest they are reaching; just not quite far enough for a rub & tug. Yet.
I would suggest by energy you mean electricity. The link is the UK has one and France wants access and the other France has and its likely the UK needs access. Wonder how EU 'solidarity' will go when France has no fish and is plundering Irish waters and Ireland has no energy because Macron over reached?
There's no good faith argument if you're linking fish and energy, so the WA is breached by the EU and we're free to look after our own interests.
So where does that leave things?
Robertj21a said:
Earthdweller said:
Mrr T said:
paulrockliffe said:
Mrr T said:
stongle said:
Of course, the EC have now linked fish and energy together; I'd suggest they are reaching; just not quite far enough for a rub & tug. Yet.
I would suggest by energy you mean electricity. The link is the UK has one and France wants access and the other France has and its likely the UK needs access. Wonder how EU 'solidarity' will go when France has no fish and is plundering Irish waters and Ireland has no energy because Macron over reached?
Now that’s probably fine for Macron who switches off the interconnector from France to the U.K. .. no real hardship for him
But actions have unintended consequences and ROI relies on the interconnections from the U.K. for most of its power
Ireland only produces around 30% of the energy it needs ... the rest comes mostly from the U.K. and virtually all comes through the U.K.
stongle said:
Custody, makes mickey mouse money unless you can sell add on services such as Lending (which the biggest income streams come from yield enhancement or short covering borrows - both ethically debatable). I happen to know what the Fee splits Norges is on, and its a total loss leader for the service provider. Same I've been bent over by SAMA, ADIA and KIA in the past; these are not hugely profitable when you have to properly capitalise them (i.e. collateral gap risk).
As for selling to these Large Institutions - it simply doesn't work the way you think. Large Institutions set their own terms in many cases; but once in are not easily disintermediated from their primary bank or service provider. Many of the really large firms buy alpha.
And as for the comments on Legal, what language does FS document in and under which applicable law (give you a clue its not French)?
Accounting, again UK dominated. Fintech ditto, and that is a significant risk to the employees given the inability to generate profits. Even with Frances 8.5bn subsidy fund of fund investments - not going to move the needle from London.
Even if you look at fund management, where the servicing is quite centralised in Lux; investment making decision is not.....
The attrition to Europe is much exaggerated.
It's clear we will never agree but I would suggest you follow my policy. You often comment on bank treasury matters. I do not reply because its some thing which has changed much since I was involved. As for selling to these Large Institutions - it simply doesn't work the way you think. Large Institutions set their own terms in many cases; but once in are not easily disintermediated from their primary bank or service provider. Many of the really large firms buy alpha.
And as for the comments on Legal, what language does FS document in and under which applicable law (give you a clue its not French)?
Accounting, again UK dominated. Fintech ditto, and that is a significant risk to the employees given the inability to generate profits. Even with Frances 8.5bn subsidy fund of fund investments - not going to move the needle from London.
Even if you look at fund management, where the servicing is quite centralised in Lux; investment making decision is not.....
The attrition to Europe is much exaggerated.
You may consider doing the same when commenting on custody because it clear your knowledge is limited. If custody is Mickley Mouse money you should tell banks like JPM, Citi, NT and SS since they employ lots of people doing just that. 2 of them only really do custody.
Add on are nice but that gets reflected in the overall price. Some companies run there own programs others do not lend. Last time I looked only about 15% of custody assets where lent. SL can be good but income is falling fast 15 years ago 70% of SL income was div arb. 2 years ago it was 30% of a much smaller figure. Strips and choice where almost as much.
Yes I know the fee split on Norges I worked on the RFP 3? years ago. They wanted SL performance attribution and my job was to write the spec. The ROA was not great but was above our business requirement. The real problem was credit line. I even know who won the business and that a number of their existing clients where not happy at the fall in income.
I have direct experience of the other wealth. (A lot now always include gross payment in the country tax agreement) . We made money on all of them. The place to lose money in custody are lift outs.
As for selling to the large EU institutions I know the M&A specialist may sit in London. However, to get onto the list is the job of the relationship manager. They will be in the EU and if an institution wants to talk M&A they will also be present when the specialist meets.
As for documentation you seem to think the world starts and ends with the ISDA, GMSLA and GMRA. It does not. Custody documents if applicable appointment of a SL agent will normally to based in the law of the service provider.
As for fund management you can put an investment team anywhere. Although I understand EU regulators want mangers of EU sold funds investing in EU assets within the EU. They also expect the management of the fund to also be EU resident.
Edited by Mrr T on Tuesday 27th October 13:01
Mrr T said:
Robertj21a said:
Earthdweller said:
Mrr T said:
paulrockliffe said:
Mrr T said:
stongle said:
Of course, the EC have now linked fish and energy together; I'd suggest they are reaching; just not quite far enough for a rub & tug. Yet.
I would suggest by energy you mean electricity. The link is the UK has one and France wants access and the other France has and its likely the UK needs access. Wonder how EU 'solidarity' will go when France has no fish and is plundering Irish waters and Ireland has no energy because Macron over reached?
Now that’s probably fine for Macron who switches off the interconnector from France to the U.K. .. no real hardship for him
But actions have unintended consequences and ROI relies on the interconnections from the U.K. for most of its power
Ireland only produces around 30% of the energy it needs ... the rest comes mostly from the U.K. and virtually all comes through the U.K.
See the IMB for some clues.
paulrockliffe said:
There will be not article 9 or annex 4 of any protocol if we end up in a situation where the French have turned off the interconnect.
See the IMB for some clues.
The WA will still exist whether the UK chooses to abide by it is a matter for UK and the courts.See the IMB for some clues.
France is not cutting off the interconnect the UK has chosen not to have access to them.
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