How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 15)

[Mortarboard]

Earthdweller said:

But actions have unintended consequences and ROI relies on the interconnections from the U.K. for most of its power

Ireland only produces around 30% of the energy it needs ... the rest comes mostly from the U.K. and virtually all comes through the U.K.

Citation needed there ED.

Ireland has been a net exporter of electricity the last couple of years. See www.seai.ie

And energy =/= electricity.

It becoming a regular trope with Brexit discussions- " the EU won't do X because ROI will be screwed"

ROI would prefer an FTA, but isn't worried about a hard/no deal secenario.

M.

Edited by Mortarboard on Tuesday 27th October 14:54

[anonymous-user]

Mortarboard said:

ROI would prefer an FTA, but isn't wprried about a hard/no deal secenario.

If you were ROI and not worried about no deal, frankly, you need your head testing.

Even with a deal it brings problems for ROI compared to UK being a member of the EU.

[paulrockliffe]

Mortarboard said:

Earthdweller said:

But actions have unintended consequences and ROI relies on the interconnections from the U.K. for most of its power

Ireland only produces around 30% of the energy it needs ... the rest comes mostly from the U.K. and virtually all comes through the U.K.

Citation needed there ED.

Ireland has been a net exporter of electricity the last couple of years. See www.seai.ie

And energy =/= electricity.

It becoming a regular trope with Brexit discussions- " the EU won't do X because ROI will be screwed"

ROI would prefer an FTA, but isn't wprried about a hard/no deal secenario.

M.

How does Ireland export electricity?

I don't know about 'most' but although Ireland produces it's own electricity, it does that by importing gas from the UK via Northern Ireland. It manages fluctuations in renewable supply by importing electricity from Europe via the UK.

I'm sure Ireland isn't worried, because the likelihood of the EU allowing Macron to insist that the only way any deal happens is for him to have all the fish is zero.

But if the Irish and the rest of the EU don't deal with Macron's silly idea of linking fish to electricity, which is the situation we're talking about, then Ireland won't be able to export electricity. It won't be able import electricity. And it won't be able to import Gas to make electricity. It's inarguable that these facts will have a massive effect in Ireland until they can be mitigated. Mitigation isn't going to happen in any sort of useful timeframe.

[Earthdweller]

Mortarboard said:

Earthdweller said:

But actions have unintended consequences and ROI relies on the interconnections from the U.K. for most of its power

Ireland only produces around 30% of the energy it needs ... the rest comes mostly from the U.K. and virtually all comes through the U.K.

Citation needed there ED.

Ireland has been a net exporter of electricity the last couple of years. See www.seai.ie

And energy =/= electricity.

It becoming a regular trope with Brexit discussions- " the EU won't do X because ROI will be screwed"

ROI would prefer an FTA, but isn't wprried about a hard/no deal secenario.

M.

Ireland produces roughly 1/3 of its electricity needs through wind/solar/peat .. homegrown/blown etc

The rest of the electricity is sourced through imported raw product, mostly natural gas from Scotland which makes up around 50% of the electricity produced

Edit to add .. there are two domestic gas fields coming on line now that have reduced the dependency on U.K. gas but not eliminated it

Then there’s coal/lng etc as well

http://ireland2050.ie/questions/where-does-ireland...

The fact the Ireland operates a “whole of island” energy system is where the export of electricity goes .. mostly to NI .. but what you are missing is that a majority of the energy needed to create that electricity that is exported is in fact imported

https://actionrenewables.co.uk/resources/blog-post...

“Ireland is heavily dependent on imports for our energy needs. About 85% of our energy came from imported sources in 2014, compared to an EU average of 50%.”

Where does Ireland get its electricity?

“Almost half (46%) of our electricity is generated from natural-gas fuelled power stations, and about one seventh comes from coal (14%). About a third of our power is generated from indigenous sources like wind (18%), peat (8.8%) and hydro-electricity (2.5%).”

Edited by Earthdweller on Tuesday 27th October 15:18

[anonymous-user]

paulrockliffe said:

How does Ireland export electricity?

I don't know about 'most' but although Ireland produces it's own electricity, it does that by importing gas from the UK via Northern Ireland. It manages fluctuations in renewable supply by importing electricity from Europe via the UK.

I'm sure Ireland isn't worried, because the likelihood of the EU allowing Macron to insist that the only way any deal happens is for him to have all the fish is zero.

But if the Irish and the rest of the EU don't deal with Macron's silly idea of linking fish to electricity, which is the situation we're talking about, then Ireland won't be able to export electricity. It won't be able import electricity. And it won't be able to import Gas to make electricity. It's inarguable that these facts will have a massive effect in Ireland until they can be mitigated. Mitigation isn't going to happen in any sort of useful timeframe.

They still have peat...........as ED notes above.

[Mortarboard]

jsf said:

If you were ROI and not worried about no deal, frankly, you need your head testing.

Even with a deal it brings problems for ROI compared to UK being a member of the EU.

The GFC hit ireland's economy for 8.5%. Was neutral a year later, then back to positive territory in 18 months.
Current forecast is a no deal Brexit will hit Irelands economy for 2%.
For a nation that "needs head testing", we do OK.
Whats the current forecasting on a no deal effect on the UK economy?
Seems forecasts are "project fear" if its the UK economy, "screwed" if its Ireland.
Of course, "easiest deal in history" is easy to achieve, so long as everyone does exactly what the UK wants.
The UK needs to sort out what it wants from Brexit, and what its willing to offer to get it.
M.

[Mrr T]

Earthdweller said:

Ireland produces roughly 1/3 of its electricity needs through wind/solar/peat .. homegrown/blown etc

The rest of the electricity is sourced through imported raw product, mostly natural gas from Scotland which makes up around 50% of the electricity produced

Edit to add .. there are two domestic gas fields coming on line now that have reduced the dependency on U.K. gas but not eliminated it

Then there’s coal/lng etc as well

http://ireland2050.ie/questions/where-does-ireland...

The fact the Ireland operates a “whole of island” energy system is where the export of electricity goes .. mostly to NI .. but what you are missing is that a majority of the energy needed to create that electricity that is exported is in fact imported

https://actionrenewables.co.uk/resources/blog-post...

“Ireland is heavily dependent on imports for our energy needs. About 85% of our energy came from imported sources in 2014, compared to an EU average of 50%.”

Where does Ireland get its electricity?

“Almost half (46%) of our electricity is generated from natural-gas fuelled power stations, and about one seventh comes from coal (14%). About a third of our power is generated from indigenous sources like wind (18%), peat (8.8%) and hydro-electricity (2.5%).”

Edited by Earthdweller on Tuesday 27th October 15:18

As I have said before. Are you really suggesting the UK government interferes with commercial contracts for gas between international companies and the Irish energy generators?

[Earthdweller]

Mrr T said:

As I have said before. Are you really suggesting the UK government interferes with commercial contracts for gas between international companies and the Irish energy generators?

No I’m not and I never have

Perhaps you might want to direct that question to the Elysee Palace

[Murph7355]

Mortarboard said:

...
It becoming a regular trope with Brexit discussions- " the EU won't do X because ROI will be screwed"
....

Citation needed there Mortarboard

I think what you'll find most people have said is that the EU don't give a flying fig about RoI and won't care if it's screwed by actions or not

[Murph7355]

Mortarboard said:

...
The UK needs to sort out what it wants from Brexit, and what its willing to offer to get it....

It has, many times over the last 10mths

[turbobloke]

Murph7355 said:

Mortarboard said:

...
The UK needs to sort out what it wants from Brexit, and what its willing to offer to get it....

It has, many times over the last 10mths

As well as what it won't give.

[Murph7355]

Mrr T said:

paulrockliffe said:

There will be not article 9 or annex 4 of any protocol if we end up in a situation where the French have turned off the interconnect.

See the IMB for some clues.

The WA will still exist whether the UK chooses to abide by it is a matter for UK and the courts.

France is not cutting off the interconnect the UK has chosen not to have access to them.

Has it?

[Mortarboard]

Murph7355 said:

Citation needed there Mortarboard

I think what you'll find most people have said is that the EU don't give a flying fig about RoI and won't care if it's screwed by actions or not

More than a few occasions in this thread )

And the view that the EU doesnt give a flying fig may well be true- but they very much do need to be seen to protect the interests of its members. Especiallly with more small members than large members, n'est pas?

M.

[anonymous-user]

Mrr T said:

As I have said before. Are you really suggesting the UK government interferes with commercial contracts for gas between international companies and the Irish energy generators?

If there is no legal means to carry out a transfer, the transfer can't happen, the agreements between commercial entities become obsolete.

UK or the EU doesn't have to do anything with regards to interfering with a commercial contract to destroy the market, it is within their power to end any market if they legislate to do so. See the slave trade and the opium trade for high profile examples.

This is the entire basis of how government power works, the market works within a framework created by governments, investments are placed on those frameworks being applied with logic, sometimes big changes occur which means your business model no longer works.

[anonymous-user]

Mortarboard said:

jsf said:

If you were ROI and not worried about no deal, frankly, you need your head testing.

Even with a deal it brings problems for ROI compared to UK being a member of the EU.

The GFC hit ireland's economy for 8.5%. Was neutral a year later, then back to positive territory in 18 months.
Current forecast is a no deal Brexit will hit Irelands economy for 2%.
For a nation that "needs head testing", we do OK.
Whats the current forecasting on a no deal effect on the UK economy?
Seems forecasts are "project fear" if its the UK economy, "screwed" if its Ireland.
Of course, "easiest deal in history" is easy to achieve, so long as everyone does exactly what the UK wants.
The UK needs to sort out what it wants from Brexit, and what its willing to offer to get it.
M.

I didn't say ROI needs its head testing, i said if you weren't worried about no deal, you need your head testing.
This is not a controversial statement, senior politicians in ROI see this as a real problem they wish to avoid.

The UK has been telling the EU what it wants for a very long time now, it even ended the talks because the EU wasn't prepared to discuss that.

[Earthdweller]

Mortarboard said:

The GFC hit ireland's economy for 8.5%. Was neutral a year later, then back to positive territory in 18 months.
Current forecast is a no deal Brexit will hit Irelands economy for 2%.
For a nation that "needs head testing", we do OK.
Whats the current forecasting on a no deal effect on the UK economy?
Seems forecasts are "project fear" if its the UK economy, "screwed" if its Ireland.
Of course, "easiest deal in history" is easy to achieve, so long as everyone does exactly what the UK wants.
The UK needs to sort out what it wants from Brexit, and what its willing to offer to get it.
M.

No it wasn’t .. the economy didn’t start to recover until late 2012 .. there was massive austerity and let’s not forget the imminent collapse of the entire Irish banking system in 2010 that had to be bailed out to the tune of billions by the Trouka

Unemployment in Ireland in 2012 was treble what it was in 2007 it went from 3% to 16% and would have been even higher if not for a wave of mass emigration

The Govt through NAMA bought up huge amounts of bad debt and still owns thousands of properties and domestic mortgages

It’s still a huge debt mountain

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/the-ba...

https://www.independent.ie/business/irish/hell-at-...

[paulrockliffe]

jsf said:

Mrr T said:

As I have said before. Are you really suggesting the UK government interferes with commercial contracts for gas between international companies and the Irish energy generators?

If there is no legal means to carry out a transfer, the transfer can't happen, the agreements between commercial entities become obsolete.

UK or the EU doesn't have to do anything with regards to interfering with a commercial contract to destroy the market, it is within their power to end any market if they legislate to do so. See the slave trade and the opium trade for high profile examples.

This is the entire basis of how government power works, the market works within a framework created by governments, investments are placed on those frameworks being applied with logic, sometimes big changes occur which means your business model no longer works.

On top of that, as I said earlier the first time Mr T made the same point, there will be no gas left to export as we'll have turned the wicks up across the board.

The idea that we'll deal with a loss of access to French nuclear in a way that does not halt exports of energy is utterly risible. Regardless of any contracts.

Is Boris the sort of guy to say, "Well I'm sorry that your lights are off, everything is shut and you're all starving, but a contract is a contract and for once the French are right on this."?

[Mortarboard]

Earthdweller said:

No it wasn’t .. the economy didn’t start to recover until late 2012 .. there was massive austerity and let’s not forget the imminent collapse of the entire Irish banking system in 2010 that had to be bailed out to the tune of billions by the Trouka

Unemployment in Ireland in 2012 was treble what it was in 2007 it went from 3% to 16% and would have been even higher if not for a wave of mass emigration

The Govt through NAMA bought up huge amounts of bad debt and still owns thousands of properties and domestic mortgages

It’s still a huge debt mountain

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/the-ba...

https://www.independent.ie/business/irish/hell-at-...

GNI per capita declined until 2012:
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GNP.PCAP.C...

But only took 3 years after that to return to pre-GFC levels.

GDP started recovering much earlier:
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.K...

The banking crisis happening was a blessing in disguise, as ballsed up as it was!

M.

[Mrr T]

Earthdweller said:

Mrr T said:

As I have said before. Are you really suggesting the UK government interferes with commercial contracts for gas between international companies and the Irish energy generators?

No I’m not and I never have

Perhaps you might want to direct that question to the Elysee Palace

Small differance the EU electricity market is part of the SM as are the interconnectors. Only EU and EEA members can trade in the market. At trans end the UK access stops unless the UK and EU agree a deal to allow the UK access. At the moment no none EU or EEA country has access. BJ say no deal is a great opportunity so he obvious is not worried by the odd power cut.

[Mortarboard]

jsf said:

I didn't say ROI needs its head testing, i said if you weren't worried about no deal, you need your head testing.
This is not a controversial statement, senior politicians in ROI see this as a real problem they wish to avoid.

Why worry? What steps would you see ROI taking to alleviate that worry?
Plans are already well under way to mitigate (as much as is practicable) the worst case scenario effects.

Ireland has been through much, much worse - and recovered. Brexit was always going to have a hit.

jsf said:

The UK has been telling the EU what it wants for a very long time now, it even ended the talks because the EU wasn't prepared to discuss that.

And if it's not agreeable to both sides, then no deal it is. Frankly, it's a bit of a persecution complex if the UK thinks that the EU is "punishing it". If what the UK is offering is not worth it to give the UK what it wants, then that's just it. Takes two side to make an agreement. All the language coming from various sectors in the UK is that the EU are big old meanies, and missing out on the great deal on offer..............

Do you really feel that what the UK is offering, is equitable for what the UK wants?

M.