How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 15)
Discussion
I'm sure the EU do want a deal, as it's in their interests to have one. It just needs to look difficult to achieve and include some punitive bits to discourage others.
My hunch is Boris/Cummings don't (let's see what happens). If that were the case, I'd be looking east to see who's interest a weakening of Europe would be in and who is connected to the PM.
My hunch is Boris/Cummings don't (let's see what happens). If that were the case, I'd be looking east to see who's interest a weakening of Europe would be in and who is connected to the PM.
Sway said:
roger.mellie said:
Sway said:
Mortarboard said:
Sway said:
Nope. Regular FTA - it is the EU that's asking for cake by requiring control over a third nation's sovereign territory...
The government has been exceptionally clear on this.
And what is the UK offering for this FTA?The government has been exceptionally clear on this.
M.
FTAs are good in their own right - they're ultimately a selfish thing, not an altruistic extension of favourable trading conditions to a third party.
More generally I see where you’re coming from but trade deals don’t usually (ever?) involve a country leaving a block they were a member of in the full knowledge that they’ll end up with less favourable terms so prior art doesn’t necessarily apply. Expecting a cookie cut isn’t a gimme, if it was it would likely already have been done. It should be possible to get a non zero sum deal and I’ll consider it a failure by both if they don’t.
The premise of the EU not seeking to engage with a straightforward FTA is a rather petulant behaviour of viewing someone leaving the club negatively. If it's such a bad thing, leaving the EU - then why create the mechanism to do so?
I agree that in many areas it "should" be easy for them to agree. At present they're more aligned in many areas than any two negotiating parties in history. TBH, it looks like they have and we're down to the same areas of contention that have been discussed many times here - LPF, fishing and governance. (I'm ignoring Macron's recent outbursts here as I don't think anything he said has changed anything other than getting people's dander up).
Both sides are obviously politicking in addition to negotiating. You can't remove politics from the negotiations given the circumstances.
RonaldMcDonaldAteMyCat said:
I'm sure the EU do want a deal, as it's in their interests to have one. It just needs to look difficult to achieve and include some punitive bits to discourage others.
My hunch is Boris/Cummings don't (let's see what happens). If that were the case, I'd be looking east to see who's interest a weakening of Europe would be in and who is connected to the PM.
I think both want a deal but both are also prepared to walk away without one if it comes down to it.My hunch is Boris/Cummings don't (let's see what happens). If that were the case, I'd be looking east to see who's interest a weakening of Europe would be in and who is connected to the PM.
I'd say that right now they're looking west. The US election has only one week to go and the result will have a major impact on how likely a UK-US trade deal is in the near vs far future. Biden also has different views/attitudes towards the EU than Trump. It won't swing it but a Trump win would make no deal more likely than a Biden one.
roger.mellie said:
Sway said:
roger.mellie said:
Sway said:
Mortarboard said:
Sway said:
Nope. Regular FTA - it is the EU that's asking for cake by requiring control over a third nation's sovereign territory...
The government has been exceptionally clear on this.
And what is the UK offering for this FTA?The government has been exceptionally clear on this.
M.
FTAs are good in their own right - they're ultimately a selfish thing, not an altruistic extension of favourable trading conditions to a third party.
More generally I see where you’re coming from but trade deals don’t usually (ever?) involve a country leaving a block they were a member of in the full knowledge that they’ll end up with less favourable terms so prior art doesn’t necessarily apply. Expecting a cookie cut isn’t a gimme, if it was it would likely already have been done. It should be possible to get a non zero sum deal and I’ll consider it a failure by both if they don’t.
The premise of the EU not seeking to engage with a straightforward FTA is a rather petulant behaviour of viewing someone leaving the club negatively. If it's such a bad thing, leaving the EU - then why create the mechanism to do so?
I agree that in many areas it "should" be easy for them to agree. At present they're more aligned in many areas than any two negotiating parties in history. TBH, it looks like they have and we're down to the same areas of contention that have been discussed many times here - LPF, fishing and governance. (I'm ignoring Macron's recent outbursts here as I don't think anything he said has changed anything other than getting people's dander up).
Both sides are obviously politicking in addition to negotiating. You can't remove politics from the negotiations given the circumstances.
Sway said:
What are the UK asking for above a normal FTA?
One example off the top of my head - rules of origin, and authority to self certify products as complying to EU standards. No idea if the UK are still asking for it but it's the first example that came to mind in response to your question. If they're not asking now it doesn't change the fact it's one of several examples of things the EU don't "normally" agree as part of FTAs.loafer123 said:
The important issues are far closer to home, with a likely double dip recession across Europe incentivising politicians of all types to grow up and compromise.
Yip, but with the US result only a week away it's a strong incentive to play a waiting game before playing certain cards.roger.mellie said:
Sway said:
What are the UK asking for above a normal FTA?
One example off the top of my head - rules of origin, and authority to self certify products as complying to EU standards. No idea if the UK are still asking for it but it's the first example that came to mind in response to your question. If they're not asking now it doesn't change the fact it's one of several examples of things the EU don't "normally" agree as part of FTAs.There's also absolutely nothing unusual about certification of goods occurring in producing nation. My employer stamps goods made in the US with CE marks every single day...
So neither of those examples are atypical within a FTA, and one isn't atypical without a FTA!
roger.mellie said:
Sway said:
What are the UK asking for above a normal FTA?
One example off the top of my head - rules of origin, and authority to self certify products as complying to EU standards. No idea if the UK are still asking for it but it's the first example that came to mind in response to your question. If they're not asking now it doesn't change the fact it's one of several examples of things the EU don't "normally" agree as part of FTAs.s2art said:
roger.mellie said:
Sway said:
What are the UK asking for above a normal FTA?
One example off the top of my head - rules of origin, and authority to self certify products as complying to EU standards. No idea if the UK are still asking for it but it's the first example that came to mind in response to your question. If they're not asking now it doesn't change the fact it's one of several examples of things the EU don't "normally" agree as part of FTAs.jsf said:
Spain wants it's cake and to eat it.
Interesting article regarding Spain seeking a FOM deal with Gibraltar, independent of the EU/UK FTA.
https://www.ft.com/content/50fa05a3-80cc-4a7c-aa01...
15,000 people cross the Spanish border to work in Gibraltar every day, that's half of the regions Spanish citizens. The nearest Spanish town has a 40% unemployment rate currently.
It's also interesting that the EU were happy to leave the Gibraltar/Spain/UK terms outside of the FTA talks and deal with it separately, but they weren't prepared to do that for Ireland.
Ireland is a much bigger lever.Interesting article regarding Spain seeking a FOM deal with Gibraltar, independent of the EU/UK FTA.
https://www.ft.com/content/50fa05a3-80cc-4a7c-aa01...
15,000 people cross the Spanish border to work in Gibraltar every day, that's half of the regions Spanish citizens. The nearest Spanish town has a 40% unemployment rate currently.
It's also interesting that the EU were happy to leave the Gibraltar/Spain/UK terms outside of the FTA talks and deal with it separately, but they weren't prepared to do that for Ireland.
As for Gib, the position noted is ironic. I've only been there twice. Both times I had to cross into Spain (once because the weather was so bad we had to be bussed to a Spanish airport) and both times the Spanish made everyone go through checks (once piss wet through due to being made to get off the bus with nightmare weather),
RonaldMcDonaldAteMyCat said:
My hunch is Boris/Cummings don't (let's see what happens). If that were the case, I'd be looking east to see who's interest a weakening of Europe would be in and who is connected to the PM.
I really don't believe that's true - it's verging on tinfoil hat territory.An agreed FTA with the EU would be a massive political win for the Tories just when they need it most, and set our political project back on track.
However, it it turned out we had just swapped to "EU Lite" and the EU could still dictate things like regulations or tariffs, it would make them look weak and incompetent - and there's a large chunk of the electorate who would never forgive them. An AFT at any cost would not end well for them - as May found out. Economically it would also hurt us at a key point.
So called "no deal" would be harder to spin, but it comes baked in with the principle that we'd continue to negotiate, and agree various terms to keep the wheels turning ("Austrailia" style). Politically, it's what half of Remain think we have anyway, so it's not that toxic, and there's room to recover between now and the next election. Economically, we can make some significant changes to keep the wheels turning.
So my reading of the options are that from Johnson's point of view the leaderboard (most preferable to least) looks like:
- FTA with independence in essential areas
- Australia style "No Deal"
- FTA at any cost
Sway said:
roger.mellie said:
Sway said:
What are the UK asking for above a normal FTA?
One example off the top of my head - rules of origin, and authority to self certify products as complying to EU standards. No idea if the UK are still asking for it but it's the first example that came to mind in response to your question. If they're not asking now it doesn't change the fact it's one of several examples of things the EU don't "normally" agree as part of FTAs.There's also absolutely nothing unusual about certification of goods occurring in producing nation. My employer stamps goods made in the US with CE marks every single day...
So neither of those examples are atypical within a FTA, and one isn't atypical without a FTA!
An FTA is the sum of all of its components. Cherry picking clauses that have been agreed with another party is meaningless unless viewed from that perspective. Geography, history, politics and circumstances all mean that the UK are quite rightly pushing for a tailored deal. It would represent a sad lack of ambition if they weren't.
Mrr T said:
Sway said:
What are the UK asking for above a normal FTA?
I hope we are. Agreements on:Access to the EU electricity market.
An open sky agreement.
Data exchange.
Nuclear.
Haulage.
Acceptance of qualifications.
Sure there are quite a lot more needed.
To suggest that not agreeing tariff free trading of goods blocks those agreements, well, let's just say that it isn't the UK that's looking like it might breach the WA...
RonaldMcDonaldAteMyCat said:
My take was that the vote was 'in' or 'out'. If you voted out, you have to accept you voted for it on any terms, including no deal. There was no qualification of the question.
The EU don't want us to leave because Germany and France don't want to be left paying for the project on their own. They also fear agitation from other doubters if we are seen to leave and prosper. Hence they're making the whole process seem as difficult as possible.
France is already in financial difficulties, so it would likely be the German tax payer who has to make up the shortfall from what the UK was paying into EU coffers. Interesting times lay ahead.The EU don't want us to leave because Germany and France don't want to be left paying for the project on their own. They also fear agitation from other doubters if we are seen to leave and prosper. Hence they're making the whole process seem as difficult as possible.
roger.mellie said:
Sway said:
roger.mellie said:
Sway said:
What are the UK asking for above a normal FTA?
One example off the top of my head - rules of origin, and authority to self certify products as complying to EU standards. No idea if the UK are still asking for it but it's the first example that came to mind in response to your question. If they're not asking now it doesn't change the fact it's one of several examples of things the EU don't "normally" agree as part of FTAs.There's also absolutely nothing unusual about certification of goods occurring in producing nation. My employer stamps goods made in the US with CE marks every single day...
So neither of those examples are atypical within a FTA, and one isn't atypical without a FTA!
An FTA is the sum of all of its components. Cherry picking clauses that have been agreed with another party is meaningless unless viewed from that perspective. Geography, history, politics and circumstances all mean that the UK are quite rightly pushing for a tailored deal. It would represent a sad lack of ambition if they weren't.
You stated very clearly that we were asking for more than a typical FTA, hence we should be willing to give more than other countries with FTAs. Except now you can't point to any actual examples of this - other than to now state that it's unambitious to not ask for more!
Perhaps, the reason we're not asking for more, is because we don't want to offer more... That's not unambitious, it's pragmatic.
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