How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 15)
Discussion
Helicopter123 said:
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We shall see on both the LPF and Fish, but it does look like the UK has moved sufficiently for the EU to get comfortable.
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I guess ultimately it doesn't really matter who thinks who moved most, and I'm sure both Frost and Barnier will say the other did.We shall see on both the LPF and Fish, but it does look like the UK has moved sufficiently for the EU to get comfortable.
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But are you even remotely familiar with what the EU were insisting on in regards the LPF and what the Japan arrangement does?
There are plenty of links out there...but in essence (from one I read last week - will try and dig it out if you cannot find it) the UK were (IIRC) looking at WTO structures to cover the LPF with the EU. These assume that aid is allowed and then have mechanisms for counterparts to complain and take action if they feel the aid was unfair, without anything being unduly over-prescribed. This is what the Japan deal is effectively based upon, albeit with tighter limits in certain areas (which will likely be the source of "this is worse than the UK originally wanted).
The EU approach is that state aid is not allowed by default and you have to ask them for permission to provide it. They are the sole arbiters of what is allowed/not allowed and sanctions are heavy up front. This is what they wanted us to sign up to.
Yes, a "pure WTO state aid rules ask" is not what is in the Japan deal and would imply a degree of movement from the UK (I would suggest totally reasonably so. And would fully expect this is really where Frost wanted/expected to land). But it strikes me that the EU are the ones who have moved the most and that they may finally be accepting that they need to be treating this negotiation with us as a Third Nation rather than as an ex-member.
We will see.
Ultimately, if the "give" that happens is as described then we can all be happy (well, not all. Some on here, on both sides, will still have their panties in a bunch), no matter who really moved most.
Helicopter123 said:
Ridgemont said:
There was a report last week that the LPF shift was agreed post the Japan deal: the EU requested the same approach as the U.K. had agreed with the Japanese, which was apparently more rigorous than that the U.K. was prepared to offer the EU. The U.K. agreed.
On fishing the deal to be made will be on continued time boxed access, not continuation of existing arrangements.
My guess is that a deal is almost a certainty now.
I would agree, I believe that significant progress has now been made on the most difficult areas.On fishing the deal to be made will be on continued time boxed access, not continuation of existing arrangements.
My guess is that a deal is almost a certainty now.
We shall see on both the LPF and Fish, but it does look like the UK has moved sufficiently for the EU to get comfortable.
Let's hope so, a FTA is in everyone's best interest.
Ridgemont said:
Helicopter123 said:
Ridgemont said:
There was a report last week that the LPF shift was agreed post the Japan deal: the EU requested the same approach as the U.K. had agreed with the Japanese, which was apparently more rigorous than that the U.K. was prepared to offer the EU. The U.K. agreed.
On fishing the deal to be made will be on continued time boxed access, not continuation of existing arrangements.
My guess is that a deal is almost a certainty now.
I would agree, I believe that significant progress has now been made on the most difficult areas.On fishing the deal to be made will be on continued time boxed access, not continuation of existing arrangements.
My guess is that a deal is almost a certainty now.
We shall see on both the LPF and Fish, but it does look like the UK has moved sufficiently for the EU to get comfortable.
Let's hope so, a FTA is in everyone's best interest.
On a wider note, is 'who moved most...given a pro-EU biased view' all that remains of Remain? If so, how sad.
turbobloke said:
Ridgemont said:
Helicopter123 said:
Ridgemont said:
There was a report last week that the LPF shift was agreed post the Japan deal: the EU requested the same approach as the U.K. had agreed with the Japanese, which was apparently more rigorous than that the U.K. was prepared to offer the EU. The U.K. agreed.
On fishing the deal to be made will be on continued time boxed access, not continuation of existing arrangements.
My guess is that a deal is almost a certainty now.
I would agree, I believe that significant progress has now been made on the most difficult areas.On fishing the deal to be made will be on continued time boxed access, not continuation of existing arrangements.
My guess is that a deal is almost a certainty now.
We shall see on both the LPF and Fish, but it does look like the UK has moved sufficiently for the EU to get comfortable.
Let's hope so, a FTA is in everyone's best interest.
On a wider note, is 'who moved most...given a pro-EU biased view' all that remains of Remain? If so, how sad.
Well, we haven't, but at least the reasons for it have changed.
Ridgemont said:
There was a report last week that the LPF shift was agreed post the Japan deal: the EU requested the same approach as the U.K. had agreed with the Japanese, which was apparently more rigorous than that the U.K. was prepared to offer the EU. The U.K. agreed.
On fishing the deal to be made will be on continued time boxed access, not continuation of existing arrangements.
My guess is that a deal is almost a certainty now.
So the UK agreed not only to current Japanese standards/regulations but also all future changes to Japanese standards/regulations as determined by a Japanese court?On fishing the deal to be made will be on continued time boxed access, not continuation of existing arrangements.
My guess is that a deal is almost a certainty now.
i4got said:
Ridgemont said:
There was a report last week that the LPF shift was agreed post the Japan deal: the EU requested the same approach as the U.K. had agreed with the Japanese, which was apparently more rigorous than that the U.K. was prepared to offer the EU. The U.K. agreed.
On fishing the deal to be made will be on continued time boxed access, not continuation of existing arrangements.
My guess is that a deal is almost a certainty now.
So the UK agreed not only to current Japanese standards/regulations but also all future changes to Japanese standards/regulations as determined by a Japanese court?On fishing the deal to be made will be on continued time boxed access, not continuation of existing arrangements.
My guess is that a deal is almost a certainty now.
Biggy Stardust said:
Helicopter123 said:
Rumours are
1.A compromise on fishing effectively pushing the whole thing 5 years down the road, nothing significant changes in the meantime.
2.UK had largely agreed to the "level playing field".
These are coming from Irish source.
May I ask that you wait until you have something more substantial? Thank you.1.A compromise on fishing effectively pushing the whole thing 5 years down the road, nothing significant changes in the meantime.
2.UK had largely agreed to the "level playing field".
These are coming from Irish source.
Tuna said:
Is it me, or are there a lot of straws being grasped at the moment?
It's remarkable that some Remain-at-any-cost posters are determined to further weaken their already shaky cause by coming up with nonsense claims that don't stand scrutiny.
Let's see what we negotiate - and then we can push forward with economic and business decisions based on reality rather than fantasy outcomes.
Its the other way around.It's remarkable that some Remain-at-any-cost posters are determined to further weaken their already shaky cause by coming up with nonsense claims that don't stand scrutiny.
Let's see what we negotiate - and then we can push forward with economic and business decisions based on reality rather than fantasy outcomes.
Leave is grasping at anything to show a victory.
Exhibit A :
Projection with you is insane.
Jazzer77 said:
Tuna said:
Is it me, or are there a lot of straws being grasped at the moment?
It's remarkable that some Remain-at-any-cost posters are determined to further weaken their already shaky cause by coming up with nonsense claims that don't stand scrutiny.
Let's see what we negotiate - and then we can push forward with economic and business decisions based on reality rather than fantasy outcomes.
Its the other way around.It's remarkable that some Remain-at-any-cost posters are determined to further weaken their already shaky cause by coming up with nonsense claims that don't stand scrutiny.
Let's see what we negotiate - and then we can push forward with economic and business decisions based on reality rather than fantasy outcomes.
Leave is grasping at anything to show a victory.
Leavers are aware the UK is leaving, it's the reality of it, and aren't engaging in multi-year grief therapy including clutching at any passing straw(man).
Jazzer77 said:
Tuna said:
Is it me, or are there a lot of straws being grasped at the moment?
It's remarkable that some Remain-at-any-cost posters are determined to further weaken their already shaky cause by coming up with nonsense claims that don't stand scrutiny.
Let's see what we negotiate - and then we can push forward with economic and business decisions based on reality rather than fantasy outcomes.
Its the other way around.It's remarkable that some Remain-at-any-cost posters are determined to further weaken their already shaky cause by coming up with nonsense claims that don't stand scrutiny.
Let's see what we negotiate - and then we can push forward with economic and business decisions based on reality rather than fantasy outcomes.
Leave is grasping at anything to show a victory.
Exhibit A :
Projection with you is insane.
Of course you are perfectly at liberty to post any anti U.K. diatribe as you wish, but it really is an odd position given where the Country is now, imo.
Sway said:
Toaster said:
This is an interesting Video on You tube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qn4MMylSP5c
In 1970 we were the 3rd largest exporter in 2015 we were the fourth largest.......but wait for it.....post Brexit by 2017 we slipped to sixth place 2018 Ninth place and 2019 10th Place.......Couldnt be anything to do with manufacturers shifting production and other business going to a more stable haven?
This Brexit malarky is going well
When trying to associate correlation with causation, it might be worth double checking your logic... In 1970 we were the 3rd largest exporter in 2015 we were the fourth largest.......but wait for it.....post Brexit by 2017 we slipped to sixth place 2018 Ninth place and 2019 10th Place.......Couldnt be anything to do with manufacturers shifting production and other business going to a more stable haven?
This Brexit malarky is going well
You think Mexico is a "more stable haven"? Or that South Korea benefitted from Brexit?
I think my logic is intact thank you,
Toaster said:
Sway said:
Toaster said:
This is an interesting Video on You tube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qn4MMylSP5c
In 1970 we were the 3rd largest exporter in 2015 we were the fourth largest.......but wait for it.....post Brexit by 2017 we slipped to sixth place 2018 Ninth place and 2019 10th Place.......Couldnt be anything to do with manufacturers shifting production and other business going to a more stable haven?
This Brexit malarky is going well
When trying to associate correlation with causation, it might be worth double checking your logic... In 1970 we were the 3rd largest exporter in 2015 we were the fourth largest.......but wait for it.....post Brexit by 2017 we slipped to sixth place 2018 Ninth place and 2019 10th Place.......Couldnt be anything to do with manufacturers shifting production and other business going to a more stable haven?
This Brexit malarky is going well
You think Mexico is a "more stable haven"? Or that South Korea benefitted from Brexit?
I think my logic is intact thank you,
Where is Dyson manufacturing, and how long has it been there?
You really couldn't have picked a worse example to 'prove' your point!
Helicopter123 said:
don'tbesilly said:
Helicopter123 said:
don'tbesilly said:
Bloomberg is reporting positive news from the UK-EU future relationship discussion this afternoon as word leaks the two sides have begun working on the text of an agreement on level playing field issues, and are close to finalising a joint document covering state aid. It’s also reported both sides are closer to deciding essential aspects of how any deal will be enforced.
The soundings bode well for Thursday when negotiations will move to Brussels where attempts will be made to narrow the remaining difference sufficiently by November the 3rd when the ball will be thrown back to Boris and von der Leyen to finalise a final compromise. Macron yet to budge on fishing…
https://order-order.com/2020/10/28/negotiating-pro...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-28...
Yes, as I posted yesterday, some significant concessions made by the UK is the we rumour coming out of Ireland. Let’s hope a deal can be done.The soundings bode well for Thursday when negotiations will move to Brussels where attempts will be made to narrow the remaining difference sufficiently by November the 3rd when the ball will be thrown back to Boris and von der Leyen to finalise a final compromise. Macron yet to budge on fishing…
https://order-order.com/2020/10/28/negotiating-pro...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-28...
How did that work out? Where is Gove now?
What specific significant concessions are being/will be made by the UK negotiating team, and in what areas are those concessions being made?
Rumours are
1.A compromise on fishing effectively pushing the whole thing 5 years down the road, nothing significant changes in the meantime.
2.UK had largely agreed to the "level playing field".
These are coming from Irish source.
Post up your source for the 2 claims you've made please.
don'tbesilly said:
The Gove claim was one you made last Summer, I don't know why you've blatantly lied in denying it.
Post up your source for the 2 claims you've made please.
“ I have no news on Gove, or his drug usage - that one is nothing to do with me.“ Post up your source for the 2 claims you've made please.
Budgie getting his defence in before anyone has made any kind of accusation, now why would one do that?
Helicopter123 said:
I have no news on Gove, or his drug usage - that one is nothing to do with me.
Rumours are
1.A compromise on fishing effectively pushing the whole thing 5 years down the road, nothing significant changes in the meantime.
2.UK had largely agreed to the "level playing field".
These are coming fromIrish source several pints of Guinness.
Rumours are
1.A compromise on fishing effectively pushing the whole thing 5 years down the road, nothing significant changes in the meantime.
2.UK had largely agreed to the "level playing field".
These are coming from
jsf said:
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