How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 15)
Discussion
Biggy Stardust said:
BlackWidow13 said:
But he didn’t say that because that’s not the message he wanted to convey. He wanted to convey “easiest deal in history” as the headline, and to relegate the obvious, substantial and foreseeable problem to a footnote.
How do you know what someone else might have wanted to convey? Do they tell you or do you make things up?So yes, he did tell me, through his use of language. If that seems mysterious or magical to you, I’m sorry.
DeepEnd said:
Fittster said:
Chaos at the Port of Dover has left more than 900 trucks parked on the M20 (left) and lorry parks are filling (right, Ashford International Truckstop).
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/index.html
This is really harsh on the truck drivers - they are after all only keeping so many important supply chains running for the benefit of everyone in the UK, EU and beyond.https://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/index.html
It seems a complete overreaction by France.
UK sudden drop in fishing demand from 60 to 35% in one go (having started at 80%). Co-incidence? 35% may not even be the end point.
I read of two trucks stuck in Calais (coming to the UK), £thousands worth of perishable goods, likely to be ruined, + similar from NI/Scotland/England (going across the channel into France), stuck on the M20.
Still, who needs friends, after all, where did the new strain originate, and why wasn't it picked up earlier?
As for the rest, well that of course is your interpretation, tad wide of the mark, unsurprisingly.
They could use the testing kits that aren't good enough (50% effective) for care homes - they could well be good enough to provide some improved assurance here that the drivers are not a risk (50% test better than nothing, but 50% assurance is not really good enough to visit old folks).
Can't help feeling these drivers should be exempt as essential workers anyway. I'm sure they'll get fed and watered somehow, but must be so frustrating being stuck on the M20 just going nowhere with no end in sight.
If they are foreign drivers, will they really have mixed much when on a route in and out of here under extant covid precautions?
Can't help feeling these drivers should be exempt as essential workers anyway. I'm sure they'll get fed and watered somehow, but must be so frustrating being stuck on the M20 just going nowhere with no end in sight.
If they are foreign drivers, will they really have mixed much when on a route in and out of here under extant covid precautions?
DeepEnd said:
sim72 said:
Yes looks like it - what do you make of the “panel to decide if quota change has economic impact and hence levy tariffs?”In theory sounds like - change quota, sure, but if it costs either side (i.e. French fishermen), the impacted side can levy tariffs on goods. Can’t see the ERG liking that, but technically “we have taken control”.
5yr phase in? Meh.
Levying of tariffs - as per LPF, depends on the mechanism. Unilateral? No. Independently arbitrated and after arbitration? Maybe. The whole trade deal? No.
All sounds very like the LPF sticking points to me.
DeepEnd said:
If they are foreign drivers, will they really have mixed much when on a route in and out of here under extant covid precautions?
The increased risk of being stranded will just get priced into the trip cost, so import and export goods will increase in sale cost.There are tried and tested schemes to ensure drivers have access food, water and sanitation. I'd expect Highways England contractors to have dropped portable toilets off overnight tonight.
jsf said:
IforB said:
US "die hard remainers" washed our hands of it a long time ago, when it became obvious the lunatics were running the asylum.
It is amazing to see these serial losers in life protecting their "win" as if it was all their own work.
You could call it childish, but that would be an insult to children.
Murph7355 said:
Or could be the EU side over briefing. Wouldn't be the first time.
5yr phase in? Meh.
Levying of tariffs - as per LPF, depends on the mechanism. Unilateral? No. Independently arbitrated and after arbitration? Maybe. The whole trade deal? No.
All sounds very like the LPF sticking points to me.
I haven't seen it reported elsewhere so unclear if it's what is actually happening. The EU commentary was that 35% was still not enough so who knows. 5yr phase in? Meh.
Levying of tariffs - as per LPF, depends on the mechanism. Unilateral? No. Independently arbitrated and after arbitration? Maybe. The whole trade deal? No.
All sounds very like the LPF sticking points to me.
It's the first time I've seen any quota reduction being linked to a tariff mechanism that could neuter any desire on the UK's part to actually change them. It would give Boris the chance to claim victory and more control of fish, whilst playing down the fact that any use of that control and there would be impacts elsewhere in the deal on goods.
DeepEnd said:
They could use the testing kits that aren't good enough (50% effective) for care homes - they could well be good enough to provide some improved assurance here that the drivers are not a risk (50% test better than nothing, but 50% assurance is not really good enough to visit old folks).
Can't help feeling these drivers should be exempt as essential workers anyway. I'm sure they'll get fed and watered somehow, but must be so frustrating being stuck on the M20 just going nowhere with no end in sight.
If they are foreign drivers, will they really have mixed much when on a route in and out of here under extant covid precautions?
95% will be foreign drivers. Most of them will have plenty of food, they tend to cook what they bring and spend nothing in the UK and often nothing between UK and final destination. For those that aren't so setup, they will get the same support they get whenever the ports close for bad weather or strikes. This is not a new thing, just the reason is.Can't help feeling these drivers should be exempt as essential workers anyway. I'm sure they'll get fed and watered somehow, but must be so frustrating being stuck on the M20 just going nowhere with no end in sight.
If they are foreign drivers, will they really have mixed much when on a route in and out of here under extant covid precautions?
With regards to trucks, M20 has been closed since 8pm and they were told not to come all day. Those that are coming are being routed to a holding area on Manston Airfield. Those that are not going there are ignoring advice and direction.
https://highwaysengland.co.uk/travel-updates/trave...
"The M20 in Kent is closed between J7 and J12 coastbound and J9 to J8 London bound between 8pm on the 21st December and 8am on the 22nd December as part of Operation Brock following the suspension of accompanied freight and tourist traffic to France from midnight of 20th December.
All EU Freight destined for Dover Port and Eurotunnel Terminals will be no longer 'stacked' on the M20 coastbound between junctions 8 and 12 and is being directed to Manston Airfield.
EU freight travelling anti-clockwise on the M25 should use the M26, M20 and A249.
EU freight travelling clockwise on the M25 should use the M2 and A2.
Directions to Manston Airfield will be displayed on both hard signs and variable message boards on the motorway.
Click here for further information on our on-going work for Operation Brock."
It's a s
tty situation for all those stuck in the UK wanting to get home, based on what I have read the EU plans to come up with their response on Wednesday, so they are most likely here for another 2 days.sim72 said:
Who gives a flying fk about fishing?The Arcadia Group was worth more to GDP and employed more people than UK Fishing, yet no one cared. If Fatso fails again at this point its on him. He will always be the Lord Halifax when he tried to be Churchill.
DeepEnd said:
I haven't seen it reported elsewhere so unclear if it's what is actually happening. The EU commentary was that 35% was still not enough so who knows.
It's the first time I've seen any quota reduction being linked to a tariff mechanism that could neuter any desire on the UK's part to actually change them. It would give Boris the chance to claim victory and more control of fish, whilst playing down the fact that any use of that control and there would be impacts elsewhere in the deal on goods.
As I noted, however, it seems to play at the heart of the issues with LPF.It's the first time I've seen any quota reduction being linked to a tariff mechanism that could neuter any desire on the UK's part to actually change them. It would give Boris the chance to claim victory and more control of fish, whilst playing down the fact that any use of that control and there would be impacts elsewhere in the deal on goods.
Punitive tariffs on goods not impacted by the apparent "unfairness"? Who decides what is "unfair"? When are these punitive tariffs to be implemented?
Feels like another too previous release of "detail" that is nothing of the sort...pre-emptively by the EU....and something which has already irked the UK side of the negotiations.
We'll see.
IforB said:
jsf said:
IforB said:
US "die hard remainers" washed our hands of it a long time ago, when it became obvious the lunatics were running the asylum.
It is amazing to see these serial losers in life protecting their "win" as if it was all their own work.
You could call it childish, but that would be an insult to children.
Another kick in the sponge for you.
DeepEnd said:
Murph7355 said:
Or could be the EU side over briefing. Wouldn't be the first time.
5yr phase in? Meh.
Levying of tariffs - as per LPF, depends on the mechanism. Unilateral? No. Independently arbitrated and after arbitration? Maybe. The whole trade deal? No.
All sounds very like the LPF sticking points to me.
I haven't seen it reported elsewhere so unclear if it's what is actually happening. The EU commentary was that 35% was still not enough so who knows. 5yr phase in? Meh.
Levying of tariffs - as per LPF, depends on the mechanism. Unilateral? No. Independently arbitrated and after arbitration? Maybe. The whole trade deal? No.
All sounds very like the LPF sticking points to me.
It's the first time I've seen any quota reduction being linked to a tariff mechanism that could neuter any desire on the UK's part to actually change them. It would give Boris the chance to claim victory and more control of fish, whilst playing down the fact that any use of that control and there would be impacts elsewhere in the deal on goods.
Have you already seen Johnson’s eyes and his smile, or has Frost already tipped you the wink?
don'tbesilly said:
It’s remarkable that you think Johnson could claim a victory whilst everyone watching the negotiations would undoubtedly be able to see through such a claim, and very quickly, or is it your claim that it’s only you that can see Johnson’s endgame?
Have you already seen Johnson’s eyes and his smile, or has Frost already tipped you the wink?
Johnsons only tactic is to sit and wait on the fence untill it is too late, and then when faced with a binary option will he chose the least worst. All the while he will be claiming there was no other choice. Have you already seen Johnson’s eyes and his smile, or has Frost already tipped you the wink?
If you go to http://www.trafficengland.com/traffic-report you can select M20 J1 to J13 and then look at the cameras, it looks empty.
If you go on the interactive live map of the area, roads are all clear and normal speed apart from a section of the M2 between J5-J7.
If you go on the interactive live map of the area, roads are all clear and normal speed apart from a section of the M2 between J5-J7.
jsf said:
If you go to http://www.trafficengland.com/traffic-report you can select M20 J1 to J13 and then look at the cameras, it looks empty.
If you go on the interactive live map of the area, roads are all clear and normal speed apart from a section of the M2 between J5-J7.
That's because it's shut coastbound between J7 and J12. If you go on the interactive live map of the area, roads are all clear and normal speed apart from a section of the M2 between J5-J7.
jsf said:
IforB said:
jsf said:
IforB said:
US "die hard remainers" washed our hands of it a long time ago, when it became obvious the lunatics were running the asylum.
It is amazing to see these serial losers in life protecting their "win" as if it was all their own work.
You could call it childish, but that would be an insult to children.
Another kick in the sponge for you.
I "win" stuff at work everyday too.
1. Sarkiest comment in a zoom call that didn't get noticed by the other person 2019 AND 2020.
2. Most cups of tea drunk in a single meeting. (5 BTW.)
3. Best beard in my home office. (The Mrs didn't put up much of a challenge though to be fair.)
And the one that I am most proud of:
4. Best argument over signing off on the expense account with the auditors.
Absolutely nailed that last one. Properly nuked them from orbit. I got the extra 4 quid in VAT when I proved the customer I bought a drink for was from a non-UK based company. Honestly, it was amazing. I called my Mum and everything.
Can I have your autograph though? I am always really impressed with people who do stuff at work that they are paid to do. It's like reeeaaallly impressive.
IforB said:
jsf said:
IforB said:
jsf said:
IforB said:
US "die hard remainers" washed our hands of it a long time ago, when it became obvious the lunatics were running the asylum.
It is amazing to see these serial losers in life protecting their "win" as if it was all their own work.
You could call it childish, but that would be an insult to children.
Another kick in the sponge for you.
I "win" stuff at work everyday too.
1. Sarkiest comment in a zoom call that didn't get noticed by the other person 2019 AND 2020.
2. Most cups of tea drunk in a single meeting. (5 BTW.)
3. Best beard in my home office. (The Mrs didn't put up much of a challenge though to be fair.)
And the one that I am most proud of:
4. Best argument over signing off on the expense account with the auditors.
Absolutely nailed that last one. Properly nuked them from orbit. I got the extra 4 quid in VAT when I proved the customer I bought a drink for was from a non-UK based company. Honestly, it was amazing. I called my Mum and everything.
Can I have your autograph though? I am always really impressed with people who do stuff at work that they are paid to do. It's like reeeaaallly impressive.
jsf said:
If you go to http://www.trafficengland.com/traffic-report you can select M20 J1 to J13 and then look at the cameras, it looks empty.
If you go on the interactive live map of the area, roads are all clear and normal speed apart from a section of the M2 between J5-J7.
Around 900 lorries were stuck on the M20 on Monday evening - not the 174 that Boris Johnson claimed at a press conference just hours earlier.If you go on the interactive live map of the area, roads are all clear and normal speed apart from a section of the M2 between J5-J7.
https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/highways-england-confir...
Boris tell fibs shocker!
IforB said:
Ah yes. The combative rhetoric of those that have never "won" anything in their life prior to the referendum and so mistake Brexit for a football match that they feel like they are playing in rather than watching.
It is amazing to see these serial losers in life protecting their "win" as if it was all their own work.
You could call it childish, but that would be an insult to children.
TBF, there's definitely an element of truth in the fact that too many people felt completely ignored and alienated by the Islinton set style of politics.It is amazing to see these serial losers in life protecting their "win" as if it was all their own work.
You could call it childish, but that would be an insult to children.
They were supposed to suck up multiculturalism as the bien pensants saw it, when in fact, the reality on the ground - in the old Labour heartlands especially it seems - was far less attractive or desirable.
However, to tar everyone who voted leave with that brush is to make the same mistake, again, and again, and again, as the bewildered Remainers made in 2016.
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