Lockdown Imminent (Vol. 2)
Discussion
Is anyone else surprised that Elmbridge in leafy Surrey is a Tier II region? It is mainly nice commuter towns like Esher, Weybridge and Cobham. As far as I’m aware there are no large colleges or student populations. Very few poor areas with crowded accommodation etc. Lots of independent schools and care homes..?
It just seems anomalous given experiences in similar areas. Does anyone have any idea what has driven this?
It just seems anomalous given experiences in similar areas. Does anyone have any idea what has driven this?
Ructions said:
Honestly? I don't know. I would hope that we have a lot less cases than we have now and the pressure would be eased somewhat on our already stretched hospitals and public services. The virus isn't going away, but we can help to stop the spread and if that means sitting in for a few weeks, then so be it.
I don't mean to sound rude, but your reasoning is crazy. You're saying "let's try to put things on hold so that we have the same problems as today, but in a few weeks time." Meanwhile destroying businesses, jobs and education. For what? You'll only be faced with the same problem further down the line.So in the long run a lockdown just defers the pain, but causes harm that could be avoided. In the long run, the lockdown has a harmful effect, and I'm amazed that so many people cannot see this.
WindyCommon said:
Is anyone else surprised that Elmbridge in leafy Surrey is a Tier II region? It is mainly nice commuter towns like Esher, Weybridge and Cobham. As far as I’m aware there are no large colleges or student populations. Very few poor areas with crowded accommodation etc. Lots of independent schools and care homes..?
It just seems anomalous given experiences in similar areas. Does anyone have any idea what has driven this?
There are a couple of areas here in the Midlands that are very similar and have seen huge rises in COVID rates. Our area (no university or college, not much deprivation) went from 40 to 140 per 100K in a couple of weeks, though it's dropped back to 109 now. It just seems anomalous given experiences in similar areas. Does anyone have any idea what has driven this?
WindyCommon said:
Is anyone else surprised that Elmbridge in leafy Surrey is a Tier II region? It is mainly nice commuter towns like Esher, Weybridge and Cobham. As far as I’m aware there are no large colleges or student populations. Very few poor areas with crowded accommodation etc. Lots of independent schools and care homes..?
It just seems anomalous given experiences in similar areas. Does anyone have any idea what has driven this?
Adjoining borough Richmond (officially part of London) has claimed that it's very high rate is largely driven by students who have tested positive after going to University elsewhere. The result comes back and counts as a positive in Richmond because the student is still registered as living at their parents address in the borough.It just seems anomalous given experiences in similar areas. Does anyone have any idea what has driven this?
That could be the same for Elmbridge although I don't think they have officially claimed that yet.
sim72 said:
There are a couple of areas here in the Midlands that are very similar and have seen huge rises in COVID rates. Our area (no university or college, not much deprivation) went from 40 to 140 per 100K in a couple of weeks, though it's dropped back to 109 now.
As already said (I think) could it be students not registering with gps near uni and keeping their home address testing positive and counting for that area rather than the one they live in?nigelpugh7 said:
interstellar said:
Yep it’s b
ks. My daughters school just decided to close with an hours notice for the rest of the week before half term as have several cases and are panicking.
No one reported as needed anything other than a hankie!!
Joke!
They sent my 14 year old Son home along with all the rest of his year on Thursday last week, it was due to one teacher in that year testing positive.ks. My daughters school just decided to close with an hours notice for the rest of the week before half term as have several cases and are panicking. No one reported as needed anything other than a hankie!!
Joke!
But my 11 year old daughter is still going to same school every day, well for now at least.
We are part expecting to get another notice shortly telling us that our daughter will have to stay home too, just in time for half term.
I assume, therefore, that anyone else telling you to self isolate doesn’t put you at risk of a fine.
survivalist said:
nigelpugh7 said:
interstellar said:
Yep it’s bks. My daughters school just decided to close with an hours notice for the rest of the week before half term as have several cases and are panicking.
No one reported as needed anything other than a hankie!!
Joke!
They sent my 14 year old Son home along with all the rest of his year on Thursday last week, it was due to one teacher in that year testing positive.ks. My daughters school just decided to close with an hours notice for the rest of the week before half term as have several cases and are panicking. No one reported as needed anything other than a hankie!!
Joke!
But my 11 year old daughter is still going to same school every day, well for now at least.
We are part expecting to get another notice shortly telling us that our daughter will have to stay home too, just in time for half term.
I assume, therefore, that anyone else telling you to self isolate doesn’t put you at risk of a fine.
WindyCommon said:
Is anyone else surprised that Elmbridge in leafy Surrey is a Tier II region? It is mainly nice commuter towns like Esher, Weybridge and Cobham. As far as I’m aware there are no large colleges or student populations. Very few poor areas with crowded accommodation etc. Lots of independent schools and care homes..?
It just seems anomalous given experiences in similar areas. Does anyone have any idea what has driven this?
I live in Elmbridge and there are a lot of students who resister their home address as well as campus and apparently PHE have admitted they’re used both addresses in their figures. So that could be one driver. Currently the infection rate is dropping but still about 130 for every 100k which is another reason for the Tier2. It just seems anomalous given experiences in similar areas. Does anyone have any idea what has driven this?
sim72 said:
survivalist said:
nigelpugh7 said:
interstellar said:
Yep it’s bks. My daughters school just decided to close with an hours notice for the rest of the week before half term as have several cases and are panicking.
No one reported as needed anything other than a hankie!!
Joke!
They sent my 14 year old Son home along with all the rest of his year on Thursday last week, it was due to one teacher in that year testing positive.ks. My daughters school just decided to close with an hours notice for the rest of the week before half term as have several cases and are panicking. No one reported as needed anything other than a hankie!!
Joke!
But my 11 year old daughter is still going to same school every day, well for now at least.
We are part expecting to get another notice shortly telling us that our daughter will have to stay home too, just in time for half term.
I assume, therefore, that anyone else telling you to self isolate doesn’t put you at risk of a fine.
Barring some monumentally stupid incident where a celebrity posts pictures of themselves on holiday etc
A Winner Is You said:
Definition of stupidity. Doing the same thing over again hoping for a different result. Clearly they don’t like what Ivor Cummins from Dublin Uni has said in his very detailed forensic blogs but prefer to listen to Gerry Killeen who said there are going to be 20-30k deaths with absolutely no credible science to back it up. Brave Fart said:
Ructions said:
Honestly? I don't know. I would hope that we have a lot less cases than we have now and the pressure would be eased somewhat on our already stretched hospitals and public services. The virus isn't going away, but we can help to stop the spread and if that means sitting in for a few weeks, then so be it.
I don't mean to sound rude, but your reasoning is crazy. You're saying "let's try to put things on hold so that we have the same problems as today, but in a few weeks time." Meanwhile destroying businesses, jobs and education. For what? You'll only be faced with the same problem further down the line.So in the long run a lockdown just defers the pain, but causes harm that could be avoided. In the long run, the lockdown has a harmful effect, and I'm amazed that so many people cannot see this.
Every year, tens of thousands of people die of flu each year because we cannot control it and do not always have the vaccine for every strain of flu going round every winter. We don't lockdown the country for half year due to this because it would wipe out the economy.
And yet here we are, wiping out the economy, wiping out family livelihoods, increasing mental stress and suicide rates. Many businesses which have taken years to build will be permanently written off.
The woman on the news yesterday who spent 500,000 building restaurant table pods to allow her business to operate and now told she has to shut. It's draconian.
sim72 said:
The Welsh lockdown is nonsense.
Apparently, despite the evidence showing that schools are a major vector of COVID, it's OK to send all primary schools and Years 7 and 8 back after a week.
That's like trying to let a bouncy castle down while someone's blowing it up from the other side.
Yes, it doesn’t make sense? Also the chap said work from home if you can otherwise you can still go to work. So that’s all factories and building sites carrying on. Not much of a lock down really.Apparently, despite the evidence showing that schools are a major vector of COVID, it's OK to send all primary schools and Years 7 and 8 back after a week.
That's like trying to let a bouncy castle down while someone's blowing it up from the other side.
Ructions said:
monkfish1 said:
Im not asking you to predict the future. Im asking you to explain what you think would happen to the virus, specifically, once the lockdown you crave ends?
Honestly? I don't know. I would hope that we have a lot less cases than we have now and the pressure would be eased somewhat on our already stretched hospitals and public services. The virus isn't going away, but we can help to stop the spread and if that means sitting in for a few weeks, then so be it.You DONT stop the spread. You have just DELAYED it. Not reduced it. In the meantime consigned a few more 10,000's to the dole queue.
To achieve precisly nothing.
Can you not see this? Seriously?
Brave Fart said:
Ructions said:
Honestly? I don't know. I would hope that we have a lot less cases than we have now and the pressure would be eased somewhat on our already stretched hospitals and public services. The virus isn't going away, but we can help to stop the spread and if that means sitting in for a few weeks, then so be it.
I don't mean to sound rude, but your reasoning is crazy. You're saying "let's try to put things on hold so that we have the same problems as today, but in a few weeks time." Meanwhile destroying businesses, jobs and education. For what? You'll only be faced with the same problem further down the line.So in the long run a lockdown just defers the pain, but causes harm that could be avoided. In the long run, the lockdown has a harmful effect, and I'm amazed that so many people cannot see this.
Actually, depressing is the word!
The total and utter destruction of our way of life. To get to the same end state we would get to without destroying everything. Ie, some 10,000,s of deaths.
I keep trying to convince myself that these people who think lockdowns achieve anything might change there mind when they are penniless, and homeless. But i doubt it somehow. It will be "someone elses fault".
As someone else said, trying to control this virus is akin to trying to control the weather. Futile.
A repost but a worthy read on the societal and impact to "R" of each kind of restriction:
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/governmen...
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/governmen...
The UK hasn’t had what I’d call a lockdown.
No where near it really.
Even during the toughest times you could go out every day, loads of shops open, most businesses still trading and customers visiting.
It was called a lockdown but it was nothing like it.
No where near it really.
Even during the toughest times you could go out every day, loads of shops open, most businesses still trading and customers visiting.
It was called a lockdown but it was nothing like it.
Edited by Thankyou4calling on Monday 19th October 21:17
Thankyou4calling said:
The UK hasn’t had what I’d call a lockdown.
No where near it really.
Even during the toughest times you could go out every day, loads of shops open, most businesses still trading and customers visiting.
It was called a lockdown but it was nothing like it.
Very true, compared to say France or Spain. No where near it really.
Even during the toughest times you could go out every day, loads of shops open, most businesses still trading and customers visiting.
It was called a lockdown but it was nothing like it.
Edited by Thankyou4calling on Monday 19th October 21:17
Under lock down I shopped twice a week. Went walking with my daughters. Went for a drive over the hills. etc
RammyMP said:
sim72 said:
The Welsh lockdown is nonsense.
Apparently, despite the evidence showing that schools are a major vector of COVID, it's OK to send all primary schools and Years 7 and 8 back after a week.
That's like trying to let a bouncy castle down while someone's blowing it up from the other side.
Yes, it doesn’t make sense? Also the chap said work from home if you can otherwise you can still go to work. So that’s all factories and building sites carrying on. Not much of a lock down really.Apparently, despite the evidence showing that schools are a major vector of COVID, it's OK to send all primary schools and Years 7 and 8 back after a week.
That's like trying to let a bouncy castle down while someone's blowing it up from the other side.
The Welsh should know better than most what happens when sectors of your economy disappear.
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