How many have been vaccinated so far?
Discussion
Maximus_Meridius101 said:
...That’s at or above the level believed to be required for the theoretical ‘herd immunity’ to kick in.
That's debatable. Firstly the percentages given above are for the proportion of adults vaccinated rather than the proportion of the population. Secondly, you need to account for the proportion of people in the vaccinated group for whom the vaccine doesn't generate a sufficient response. And the herd immunity threshold is based on vaccinated people been evenly spread across the population whereas the vaccine program is by age, which leaves some gaps where infection could in theory spread.
But on the other hand, you have quite a lot of natural infection which boost the numbers a bit. There are a couple of experts on twitter who have reviewed these factors together and it suggests the percentage of the population with effective immunity is currently around 57%.
Depending on which estimate of R0 you want to use, we probably need 67% - 75% to be home and dry (assuming normal behaviors).
EddieSteadyGo said:
And the herd immunity threshold is based on vaccinated people been evenly spread across the population whereas the vaccine program is by age, which leaves some gaps where infection could in theory spread.
The majority of the working age population haven’t been vaccinated yet - that must leave a big risk of COVID spreading in workplaces.CarlosFandango11 said:
The majority of the working age population haven’t been vaccinated yet - that must leave a big risk of COVID spreading in workplaces.
This is true.However, in Wales the numbers show that ~25% of people of working age are in the clinically vulnerable categories and therefore there are a fair number of people of working age that are vaccinated. It shocks me how high this number is really.
In parts of Wales vaccinations are happening for 18+ now (though rapidly happening for 30+).
HappyMidget said:
One of them me!As a very fit 47 yr old who had extremely mild Covid in early March 2020, I took a logical and numerical approach to my decision to have the vaccine.
It’s quite simple really - the odds are stacked in my favour of living longer or avoiding potentially debilitating symptoms by taking the vaccine. Looking at the stats, this continues to be the case down to about mid-20s. Below that it’s more finely balanced.
Plus I know from personal experience that antibodies don’t last forever. Mine had dissipated between June 2020 and January 2021.
MX5Biologist said:
oyster said:
Plus I know from personal experience that antibodies don’t last forever. Mine had dissipated between June 2020 and January 2021.
That's not how immunity works.There are lot of numbers bandied about, suggesting precision. There isn't. Its easy to forget that, essentially, 16 months ago, this virus was unknown.
A useful proxy for the extant of knowledge about a pathogen is through publications.
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/?term=influenza&am...
A graphical representation of the body of knowledge on Influenza; ~140,000 papers over the last 219 years,
Plague
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/?term=plague&t...
~12,000 papers since 1797
MRSA
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/?term=MRSA&tim...
~37,000 since 1948
Ebola
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/?term=ebola%20viru...
~7000 papers since 1977
Covid-19
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/?term=covid-19&...
~125,000 papers in 12 months
Of course, this is a crude search. I should for instance include Yersinia pestis as a term for plague, or CArs-Cov-2 when considering rhe illness COVID-19 etc.. But its astonishing, how probably the entire virology universe has been focused on tis one threat agent in a short perid. That means lots of data, lots of data fog, a lack of a settled view. The term "herd immunity" is a bit of a vague term, without a single definition (it originated as a term applied to the management of livestock that spontaneusly aborted, and later on, in the 1930s, used by the same people who liked to use terms such as Eugenics. The Royal Army Medical Corps, in a the 1930s, declared that England had achieved Herd Immunity from Malaria and Typhus. They didn't mean we had all been infected with these, and the survivors could mount a robust immune response. What they meant was that the efforts of the Army had succeeded in keeping out these "foreign" diseases from out lands).
A little history on the term:
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/...
It comes down to probability. When is the probability of someone who is infectious coming into contact with someone who is susceptible to infection so low as to be discounted. No one knows precisely when that is achieved. This is still an emerging infectious disease. There is still a LOT we know nothing about about this virus.
purplepenguin said:
MX5Biologist said:
oyster said:
Plus I know from personal experience that antibodies don’t last forever. Mine had dissipated between June 2020 and January 2021.
That's not how immunity works.There are lot of numbers bandied about, suggesting precision. There isn't. Its easy to forget that, essentially, 16 months ago, this virus was unknown.
A useful proxy for the extant of knowledge about a pathogen is through publications.
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/?term=influenza&am...
A graphical representation of the body of knowledge on Influenza; ~140,000 papers over the last 219 years,
Plague
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/?term=plague&t...
~12,000 papers since 1797
MRSA
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/?term=MRSA&tim...
~37,000 since 1948
Ebola
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/?term=ebola%20viru...
~7000 papers since 1977
Covid-19
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/?term=covid-19&...
~125,000 papers in 12 months
Of course, this is a crude search. I should for instance include Yersinia pestis as a term for plague, or CArs-Cov-2 when considering rhe illness COVID-19 etc.. But its astonishing, how probably the entire virology universe has been focused on tis one threat agent in a short perid. That means lots of data, lots of data fog, a lack of a settled view. The term "herd immunity" is a bit of a vague term, without a single definition (it originated as a term applied to the management of livestock that spontaneusly aborted, and later on, in the 1930s, used by the same people who liked to use terms such as Eugenics. The Royal Army Medical Corps, in a the 1930s, declared that England had achieved Herd Immunity from Malaria and Typhus. They didn't mean we had all been infected with these, and the survivors could mount a robust immune response. What they meant was that the efforts of the Army had succeeded in keeping out these "foreign" diseases from out lands).
A little history on the term:
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/...
It comes down to probability. When is the probability of someone who is infectious coming into contact with someone who is susceptible to infection so low as to be discounted. No one knows precisely when that is achieved. This is still an emerging infectious disease. There is still a LOT we know nothing about about this virus.
I had antibody tests in Jun 20 and Jan 21. They were detected in Jun 20 and not detectable in Jan 21.
Your comparisons between various diseases is utterly out of context - and a bit rude actually.
oyster said:
purplepenguin said:
MX5Biologist said:
oyster said:
Plus I know from personal experience that antibodies don’t last forever. Mine had dissipated between June 2020 and January 2021.
That's not how immunity works.There are lot of numbers bandied about, suggesting precision. There isn't. Its easy to forget that, essentially, 16 months ago, this virus was unknown.
A useful proxy for the extant of knowledge about a pathogen is through publications.
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/?term=influenza&am...
A graphical representation of the body of knowledge on Influenza; ~140,000 papers over the last 219 years,
Plague
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/?term=plague&t...
~12,000 papers since 1797
MRSA
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/?term=MRSA&tim...
~37,000 since 1948
Ebola
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/?term=ebola%20viru...
~7000 papers since 1977
Covid-19
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/?term=covid-19&...
~125,000 papers in 12 months
Of course, this is a crude search. I should for instance include Yersinia pestis as a term for plague, or CArs-Cov-2 when considering rhe illness COVID-19 etc.. But its astonishing, how probably the entire virology universe has been focused on tis one threat agent in a short perid. That means lots of data, lots of data fog, a lack of a settled view. The term "herd immunity" is a bit of a vague term, without a single definition (it originated as a term applied to the management of livestock that spontaneusly aborted, and later on, in the 1930s, used by the same people who liked to use terms such as Eugenics. The Royal Army Medical Corps, in a the 1930s, declared that England had achieved Herd Immunity from Malaria and Typhus. They didn't mean we had all been infected with these, and the survivors could mount a robust immune response. What they meant was that the efforts of the Army had succeeded in keeping out these "foreign" diseases from out lands).
A little history on the term:
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/...
It comes down to probability. When is the probability of someone who is infectious coming into contact with someone who is susceptible to infection so low as to be discounted. No one knows precisely when that is achieved. This is still an emerging infectious disease. There is still a LOT we know nothing about about this virus.
I had antibody tests in Jun 20 and Jan 21. They were detected in Jun 20 and not detectable in Jan 21.
Your comparisons between various diseases is utterly out of context - and a bit rude actually.
That’s how antibodies work, they don’t hang around after the infection has been dealt with.
purplepenguin said:
Don’t agree - so much money has been spent on this virus yet other diseases have had nowhere as much money and effort put into eradication of say, tb, hiv, malaria etc
That’s how antibodies work, they don’t hang around after the infection has been dealt with.
I think it's clear why lots of money has been spent on this virus, in comparison to other viruses. Thankfully, a direct consequence of this focused spending will be benefits seen in numerous other areas of scientific study; so the spending is not only helping the planet resolve it's Covid issue.That’s how antibodies work, they don’t hang around after the infection has been dealt with.
IgM abs dont hang around, but IgG abs can hang around for a long time. Those infected with Sars-cov1 typically had IgG ab's for 2-3yrs. And with luck (and more studies highlighting this), B & T-Cells might well end up providing the long term protection.
Had my 2nd jab last Thursday, 41 with COPD, 1st jab knocked me for six and ranked up there in the most ill I have ever been, but only for a few days.
2nd jab hurt going in and bled quite a bit, with almost instant pain across my shoulder towards my back. No illness this time although may have been a bit more tired but ongoing shoulder pain.
Was in and out in less than 5 mins probably more like 3 minutes.
2nd jab hurt going in and bled quite a bit, with almost instant pain across my shoulder towards my back. No illness this time although may have been a bit more tired but ongoing shoulder pain.
Was in and out in less than 5 mins probably more like 3 minutes.
ukwill said:
purplepenguin said:
Don’t agree - so much money has been spent on this virus yet other diseases have had nowhere as much money and effort put into eradication of say, tb, hiv, malaria etc
That’s how antibodies work, they don’t hang around after the infection has been dealt with.
I think it's clear why lots of money has been spent on this virus, in comparison to other viruses. Thankfully, a direct consequence of this focused spending will be benefits seen in numerous other areas of scientific study; so the spending is not only helping the planet resolve it's Covid issue.That’s how antibodies work, they don’t hang around after the infection has been dealt with.
IgM abs dont hang around, but IgG abs can hang around for a long time. Those infected with Sars-cov1 typically had IgG ab's for 2-3yrs. And with luck (and more studies highlighting this), B & T-Cells might well end up providing the long term protection.
krisdelta said:
Joey Deacon said:
About an hour after my last post on this thread I got a text telling me to book my jab online. I know it is seen as the wrong mentality but is anybody else just not interested in getting the vaccine?
Now it is my time to get it I just don't see the point. I am 47, not frightened of getting it and I only know of one person who has had a confirmed case in the last year. I don't know anybody who is vulnerable and both my parents who are under 70 and healthy have had both of their jabs.
At the moment I have literally no interest in getting the vaccine, anybody else feel the same?
I don't feel the same, my wife is treating people who are recovering from long covid, yes you may get little or no long term impact, or you maybe incredibly ill, for a long long time with a very tough recovery. You wont know until you get it and recover fully (or not) what the impact will be. I am very much looking forward to getting my vaccine. Now it is my time to get it I just don't see the point. I am 47, not frightened of getting it and I only know of one person who has had a confirmed case in the last year. I don't know anybody who is vulnerable and both my parents who are under 70 and healthy have had both of their jabs.
At the moment I have literally no interest in getting the vaccine, anybody else feel the same?
I'm convinced Ive had it and a year on Im still not 100%, minor issues with breathing and I am reasonably fit and lean, regularly exercising. Fatigue over the winter to the point I'd sleep at lunch. I think I got lucky when I see the raw deal some people got
krisdelta, I hope you get it, roll the dice and see what happens
Bathroom_Security said:
krisdelta said:
Joey Deacon said:
About an hour after my last post on this thread I got a text telling me to book my jab online. I know it is seen as the wrong mentality but is anybody else just not interested in getting the vaccine?
Now it is my time to get it I just don't see the point. I am 47, not frightened of getting it and I only know of one person who has had a confirmed case in the last year. I don't know anybody who is vulnerable and both my parents who are under 70 and healthy have had both of their jabs.
At the moment I have literally no interest in getting the vaccine, anybody else feel the same?
I don't feel the same, my wife is treating people who are recovering from long covid, yes you may get little or no long term impact, or you maybe incredibly ill, for a long long time with a very tough recovery. You wont know until you get it and recover fully (or not) what the impact will be. I am very much looking forward to getting my vaccine. Now it is my time to get it I just don't see the point. I am 47, not frightened of getting it and I only know of one person who has had a confirmed case in the last year. I don't know anybody who is vulnerable and both my parents who are under 70 and healthy have had both of their jabs.
At the moment I have literally no interest in getting the vaccine, anybody else feel the same?
I'm convinced Ive had it and a year on Im still not 100%, minor issues with breathing and I am reasonably fit and lean, regularly exercising. Fatigue over the winter to the point I'd sleep at lunch. I think I got lucky when I see the raw deal some people got
[-]krisdelta[-] Joey Deacon, I hope you get it, roll the dice and see what happens
HappyMidget said:
Bathroom_Security said:
krisdelta said:
Joey Deacon said:
About an hour after my last post on this thread I got a text telling me to book my jab online. I know it is seen as the wrong mentality but is anybody else just not interested in getting the vaccine?
Now it is my time to get it I just don't see the point. I am 47, not frightened of getting it and I only know of one person who has had a confirmed case in the last year. I don't know anybody who is vulnerable and both my parents who are under 70 and healthy have had both of their jabs.
At the moment I have literally no interest in getting the vaccine, anybody else feel the same?
I don't feel the same, my wife is treating people who are recovering from long covid, yes you may get little or no long term impact, or you maybe incredibly ill, for a long long time with a very tough recovery. You wont know until you get it and recover fully (or not) what the impact will be. I am very much looking forward to getting my vaccine. Now it is my time to get it I just don't see the point. I am 47, not frightened of getting it and I only know of one person who has had a confirmed case in the last year. I don't know anybody who is vulnerable and both my parents who are under 70 and healthy have had both of their jabs.
At the moment I have literally no interest in getting the vaccine, anybody else feel the same?
I'm convinced Ive had it and a year on Im still not 100%, minor issues with breathing and I am reasonably fit and lean, regularly exercising. Fatigue over the winter to the point I'd sleep at lunch. I think I got lucky when I see the raw deal some people got
[-]krisdelta[-] Joey Deacon, I hope you get it, roll the dice and see what happens
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