How many have been vaccinated so far?
Discussion
EddieSteadyGo said:
NRS said:
So by the time there is maybe 90% plus jabbed at least once they might consider allowing people to not quarantine IF they had been double jabbed already?
This is basically a 0 cases strategy in action....
It isn't. Israel has something like 90% adults vaccinated, and is starting to get small outbreaks again, one of which was linked to a person returning to the country. Singapore just had a recent outbreak - they managed to trace patient zero to an 88 year old who was double vaccinated. This is basically a 0 cases strategy in action....
So we need to stop thinking in absolute terms - vaccines reduce transmission, but they don't stop it entirely. Just as they reduce hospitalisation and deaths but without preventing them completely. Adapting the layers of risk we apply makes sense while we are in this transition phase before we reach herd immunity. And even then, they will be a *very* long tail of new cases which will likely continue forever.
High vaccination rates just help mitigate the scale of any outbreak - they don't and will never mean zero cases. A number of the main epidemiologists on Sage are saying this openly.
That's the point, they seem to be attempting it despite it almost certainly not being possible. Just look at the change in the media from deaths to hospitialisations. Due to the small numbers involved it looks bad as a percentage which gets brought up. And this will be in over a month's time that they will consider allowing only fully vaccinated people in...
NRS said:
EddieSteadyGo said:
NRS said:
So by the time there is maybe 90% plus jabbed at least once they might consider allowing people to not quarantine IF they had been double jabbed already?
This is basically a 0 cases strategy in action....
It isn't. Israel has something like 90% adults vaccinated, and is starting to get small outbreaks again, one of which was linked to a person returning to the country. Singapore just had a recent outbreak - they managed to trace patient zero to an 88 year old who was double vaccinated. This is basically a 0 cases strategy in action....
So we need to stop thinking in absolute terms - vaccines reduce transmission, but they don't stop it entirely. Just as they reduce hospitalisation and deaths but without preventing them completely. Adapting the layers of risk we apply makes sense while we are in this transition phase before we reach herd immunity. And even then, they will be a *very* long tail of new cases which will likely continue forever.
High vaccination rates just help mitigate the scale of any outbreak - they don't and will never mean zero cases. A number of the main epidemiologists on Sage are saying this openly.
That's the point, they seem to be attempting it despite it almost certainly not being possible. Just look at the change in the media from deaths to hospitialisations. Due to the small numbers involved it looks bad as a percentage which gets brought up. And this will be in over a month's time that they will consider allowing only fully vaccinated people in...
Firstly, there are lots of "zerocovid" advocates; fortunately they are on fringe. As nice as zerocovid might sound, unless you want to cut yourself off forever from the outside world, it isn't achievable.
Then we have the media, who own the mantra "if it bleeds, it leads". Frightening people equals eyeballs, or impressions in more modern terminology.
But we also have the main experts who realise covid is endemic, and now we have the vaccines, we can mitigate the worst of its effects. This I think is the prevailing expert opinion on SAGE.
I do think the government have been poor in explaining this to people - maybe I don't understand politics, but most sensible people I know want to know the truth, not being told something which might make them feel better in the short term but which isn't correct.
In terms of what this means for us, an exit wave was inevitable. Covid, not the delta variant, is the problem. And we need to complete the vaccine rollout asap. And even then, cases are not going to zero. Anyone who hasn't already been infected or had the vaccine will get covid. All we can do with the vaccine is minimise the scale of any new outbreaks. We can get to the herd immunity threshold during the summer, and then perhaps stop looking so hard for covid during the winter.
EddieSteadyGo said:
In terms of what this means for us, an exit wave was inevitable. Covid, not the delta variant, is the problem. And we need to complete the vaccine rollout asap. And even then, cases are not going to zero. Anyone who hasn't already been infected or had the vaccine will get covid. All we can do with the vaccine is minimise the scale of any new outbreaks. We can get to the herd immunity threshold during the summer, and then perhaps stop looking so hard for covid during the winter.
This. Claim the victory and move on. If it was about covid, this would have been done already.Any hint at all from anyone inside or around no10 that they will stop looking so hard? Or is project moonshot heading to its next stage? (To loud cheers from the "opposition"
If the latter, why???EddieSteadyGo said:
NRS said:
This is basically a 0 cases strategy in action....
It isn't. Israel has something like 90% adults vaccinated, and is starting to get small outbreaks again, one of which was linked to a person returning to the country..Judging what politicians do rather than say might just be more sensible perhaps....
EddieSteadyGo said:
NRS said:
EddieSteadyGo said:
NRS said:
So by the time there is maybe 90% plus jabbed at least once they might consider allowing people to not quarantine IF they had been double jabbed already?
This is basically a 0 cases strategy in action....
It isn't. Israel has something like 90% adults vaccinated, and is starting to get small outbreaks again, one of which was linked to a person returning to the country. Singapore just had a recent outbreak - they managed to trace patient zero to an 88 year old who was double vaccinated. This is basically a 0 cases strategy in action....
So we need to stop thinking in absolute terms - vaccines reduce transmission, but they don't stop it entirely. Just as they reduce hospitalisation and deaths but without preventing them completely. Adapting the layers of risk we apply makes sense while we are in this transition phase before we reach herd immunity. And even then, they will be a *very* long tail of new cases which will likely continue forever.
High vaccination rates just help mitigate the scale of any outbreak - they don't and will never mean zero cases. A number of the main epidemiologists on Sage are saying this openly.
That's the point, they seem to be attempting it despite it almost certainly not being possible. Just look at the change in the media from deaths to hospitialisations. Due to the small numbers involved it looks bad as a percentage which gets brought up. And this will be in over a month's time that they will consider allowing only fully vaccinated people in...
Firstly, there are lots of "zerocovid" advocates; fortunately they are on fringe. As nice as zerocovid might sound, unless you want to cut yourself off forever from the outside world, it isn't achievable.
Then we have the media, who own the mantra "if it bleeds, it leads". Frightening people equals eyeballs, or impressions in more modern terminology.
But we also have the main experts who realise covid is endemic, and now we have the vaccines, we can mitigate the worst of its effects. This I think is the prevailing expert opinion on SAGE.
I do think the government have been poor in explaining this to people - maybe I don't understand politics, but most sensible people I know want to know the truth, not being told something which might make them feel better in the short term but which isn't correct.
In terms of what this means for us, an exit wave was inevitable. Covid, not the delta variant, is the problem. And we need to complete the vaccine rollout asap. And even then, cases are not going to zero. Anyone who hasn't already been infected or had the vaccine will get covid. All we can do with the vaccine is minimise the scale of any new outbreaks. We can get to the herd immunity threshold during the summer, and then perhaps stop looking so hard for covid during the winter.
Problem is it isn't endemic yet as that would require a general steady state of infections without external interventions with simply isolated outbreaks occurring rather than country wide spread, a position we haven't quite achieved as yet. Tantalisingly close but not quite there.
Agreed we are looking for it harder than anywhere else but on the other hand there is a risk to be taken in infections possibly becoming exponential again, i.e. epidemic, with removal of all interventions today so the more information the better if used correctly.
Will another four weeks of rollout achieve the aim? Your crystal ball is as good as mine.
As for zerocovid that could never happen until the whole world achieves that endemic state, if indeed it ever does, but it also isn't impossible that the virus all but disappears sometime in the long future.
EddieSteadyGo said:
I do think the government have been poor in explaining this to people - maybe I don't understand politics, but most sensible people I know want to know the truth, not being told something which might make them feel better in the short term but which isn't correct.
I personally (and no fan of Boris) thought they had been quite clear; my takeaways in recent weeks have been:- We need to learn to live with covid; 0 covid is not achievable
- Maximising adult vaccinations is key to minimising the exit wave impact on the NHS (mainly hospitalisations rather than deaths)
- People don't like scenarios and forecasts
- We aren't really in any form of significant lockdown in the UK
vaud said:
EddieSteadyGo said:
I do think the government have been poor in explaining this to people - maybe I don't understand politics, but most sensible people I know want to know the truth, not being told something which might make them feel better in the short term but which isn't correct.
I personally (and no fan of Boris) thought they had been quite clear; my takeaways in recent weeks have been:- We need to learn to live with covid; 0 covid is not achievable
- Maximising adult vaccinations is key to minimising the exit wave impact on the NHS (mainly hospitalisations rather than deaths)
- People don't like scenarios and forecasts
- We aren't really in any form of significant lockdown in the UK
I could list off a series of errors on the communication. We could start with the famous, "three weeks to flatten the curve" which turned into three months of lockdown. Then back in January, when Hancock was asked about lockdown ending he said we should "cry freedom!" when the over 70's had been vaccinated, whereas in fact that wasn't what he thought. More recently, Boris said, "I see nothing in the data to delay stage 4" from June 21. And then promptly delayed stage 4 when literally nothing new had emerged in the data, apart from maybe he had actually looked at it.
More importantly for the future, little effort has been made formally by the government to explain why an exit wave can't be avoided and must be endured. We will be going into stage 4 next month with cases likely to be somewhere around 15-20k cases per day (and that is being optimistic). That will cause many to feel the people government is being reckless. But we have to get the exit wave completed before the end of the summer, else it will be much worse later in the year. LIttle effort has been made to help people understand it - and yet it has been the case the months (see my previous posts on the topic).
MOTORVATOR said:
....
Will another four weeks of rollout achieve the aim? Your crystal ball is as good as mine.
...
I'd say after another 4 weeks of rollout every adult in the UK who wants a jab will have received at least their first one. And we should be at around 70% of adults under 30 having received their 1st jab too. Combine that together with those who already have antibodies via being infected with covid, and we should be above 80% of adults under 30 years old with antibodies. Will another four weeks of rollout achieve the aim? Your crystal ball is as good as mine.
...
But even in that scenario, they will be something like 3-4 million adults plus a lot more younger teenagers susceptible to being infected. And those people will nearly all get infected, over the course of the next few years.
Another factor is that the herd immunity threshold relies upon vaccinated people being distributed evenly through society - in fact it won't be quite like that - there will be clusters of refuseniks which will allow clustered outbreaks.
But on the other hand, those either vaccinated or previously infected have all the protection they are realistically ever going to get against covid. And the proportion of the population with antibodies should prevent the scale of outbreak which could affect the healthcare system, at least on a national basis.
As to the point in the quote, I think mid July will be more than enough to achieve the aim of reopening fully. But it is going to be bumpy, particularly as schools will be closed at that point which is going to push some of the exit wave which could been endured now into September.
EddieSteadyGo said:
Quite clear? Interesting.
I could list off a series of errors on the communication. We could start with the famous, "three weeks to flatten the curve" which turned into three months of lockdown. Then back in January, when Hancock was asked about lockdown ending he said we should "cry freedom!" when the over 70's had been vaccinated, whereas in fact that wasn't what he thought. More recently, Boris said, "I see nothing in the data to delay stage 4" from June 21. And then promptly delayed stage 4 when literally nothing new had emerged in the data, apart from maybe he had actually looked at it.
I said "recent weeks"...I could list off a series of errors on the communication. We could start with the famous, "three weeks to flatten the curve" which turned into three months of lockdown. Then back in January, when Hancock was asked about lockdown ending he said we should "cry freedom!" when the over 70's had been vaccinated, whereas in fact that wasn't what he thought. More recently, Boris said, "I see nothing in the data to delay stage 4" from June 21. And then promptly delayed stage 4 when literally nothing new had emerged in the data, apart from maybe he had actually looked at it.
isaldiri said:
EddieSteadyGo said:
NRS said:
This is basically a 0 cases strategy in action....
It isn't. Israel has something like 90% adults vaccinated, and is starting to get small outbreaks again, one of which was linked to a person returning to the country..Judging what politicians do rather than say might just be more sensible perhaps....
Israel have stated specifically they will not and are not pursuing a zerocovid strategy. However, they left restrictions in place far longer than was necessary which artificially limited close contacts. So inevitably, as they reopen fully, you are going to get clustered outbreaks as the virus works to find its way to infect the last 10% of adults and a big chunk of the teenage population in Israel.
And already we are seeing today some influential scientists in Israel tweeting about the importance of dealing with "exponential curves" at the start of the curve, rather than when the problem "takes hold". Basically those people are actually trying to achieve zerocovid, and they will push the agenda in that direction unless the government there communicates honestly and clearly with the population.
EddieSteadyGo said:
Another factor is that the herd immunity threshold relies upon vaccinated people being distributed evenly through society - in fact it won't be quite like that - there will be clusters of refuseniks which will allow clustered outbreaks..
Classic herd immunity threshold also relies on infected people not being susceptible so once HIT is reached, the virus starts to stop circulating and effectively disappears.That isn't going to be the case because vaccinated people are still susceptible (albeit less so). outbreaks will still happen in the vaccinated population as well as the 'refuseniks'. Without getting through that exit wave (ever shoved closer to winter with attendant healthcare issues) through and having a steady (season affected) state of infections, transmission rate isn't going to hold around 1 as per an endemic virus. Like....the other 4 hcovs or any other number of respiratory viruses in the population.
EddieSteadyGo said:
That kind of relates to my point about frustration with government comms, which applies also in Israel.
Israel have stated specifically they will not and are not pursuing a zerocovid strategy. However, they left restrictions in place far longer than was necessary which artificially limited close contacts. So inevitably, as they reopen fully, you are going to get clustered outbreaks as the virus works to find its way to infect the last 10% of adults and a big chunk of the teenage population in Israel.
And already we are seeing today some influential scientists in Israel tweeting about the importance of dealing with "exponential curves" at the start of the curve, rather than when the problem "takes hold". Basically those people are actually trying to achieve zerocovid, and they will push the agenda in that direction unless the government there communicates honestly and clearly with the population.
But it's not just government comms that are the problem but how they are actually behaving. Saying no zerocovid is all and good but if politicians freak out every time there is a new outbreak and try 'something' to suppress cases, how is that not attempting what they are claiming they are not? Which I think was part of NRS's point earlier.Israel have stated specifically they will not and are not pursuing a zerocovid strategy. However, they left restrictions in place far longer than was necessary which artificially limited close contacts. So inevitably, as they reopen fully, you are going to get clustered outbreaks as the virus works to find its way to infect the last 10% of adults and a big chunk of the teenage population in Israel.
And already we are seeing today some influential scientists in Israel tweeting about the importance of dealing with "exponential curves" at the start of the curve, rather than when the problem "takes hold". Basically those people are actually trying to achieve zerocovid, and they will push the agenda in that direction unless the government there communicates honestly and clearly with the population.
Edited by isaldiri on Wednesday 23 June 08:23
vaud said:
EddieSteadyGo said:
Quite clear? Interesting.
I could list off a series of errors on the communication. We could start with the famous, "three weeks to flatten the curve" which turned into three months of lockdown. Then back in January, when Hancock was asked about lockdown ending he said we should "cry freedom!" when the over 70's had been vaccinated, whereas in fact that wasn't what he thought. More recently, Boris said, "I see nothing in the data to delay stage 4" from June 21. And then promptly delayed stage 4 when literally nothing new had emerged in the data, apart from maybe he had actually looked at it.
I said "recent weeks"...I could list off a series of errors on the communication. We could start with the famous, "three weeks to flatten the curve" which turned into three months of lockdown. Then back in January, when Hancock was asked about lockdown ending he said we should "cry freedom!" when the over 70's had been vaccinated, whereas in fact that wasn't what he thought. More recently, Boris said, "I see nothing in the data to delay stage 4" from June 21. And then promptly delayed stage 4 when literally nothing new had emerged in the data, apart from maybe he had actually looked at it.
vaud said:
OK, maybe I filtered it out.
Personally I have no issue with an evolving strategy and evolving data - and therefore evolving comms.
Personally I have no issue with an evolving strategy and evolving data - and therefore evolving comms.
The path we've followed has been largely about whether most everyone would go along with it.
If they'd locked down too early, who would have believed it was necessary?
All along it's been a game of how much can we shut down vs how many would do otherwise.
The figures would have been worse with poor compliance, and worse if lockdown wasnt so hard
It's a collective outcome, not brilliant but not too bad in the circumstances
I wonder if the double-jabbed, despite being allowed to avoid isolation, will still have to have the multiple £149 a time tests on departure/arrival. That one is a bloody disgrace; someone (mate of Boris no doubt) is making a pretty penny from that, and it’s putting foreign travel out the reach of many. Imagine test costs for a family of four 
Lockdown this winter. My prediction hasn’t changed - indeed I get the impression that the press are priming us for it.
Lockdown this winter. My prediction hasn’t changed - indeed I get the impression that the press are priming us for it.
Interesting that ONS are reporting that the % of people positive for antibodies is significantly higher than the modelling prediction which was behind the June 21 plan.
44.6% predicted (Imperial College) of the entire population including children, actual based on testing 80% adults over 16, almost 70% if you include children in the figures.
Certainly our recent tests have all come back positive incl daughter who has only had one jab so far.
Usual caveats, yes presence antibodies doesn't mean can't catch it, depends which population figures you're using as sources vary, via bla bla.
Locally in other news someone has just hacked down a new 5G mast which has also done collateral damage to nearby property. :shakeshead:
44.6% predicted (Imperial College) of the entire population including children, actual based on testing 80% adults over 16, almost 70% if you include children in the figures.
Certainly our recent tests have all come back positive incl daughter who has only had one jab so far.
Usual caveats, yes presence antibodies doesn't mean can't catch it, depends which population figures you're using as sources vary, via bla bla.
Locally in other news someone has just hacked down a new 5G mast which has also done collateral damage to nearby property. :shakeshead:
Dog Star said:
I wonder if the double-jabbed, despite being allowed to avoid isolation, will still have to have the multiple £149 a time tests on departure/arrival. That one is a bloody disgrace; someone (mate of Boris no doubt) is making a pretty penny from that, and it’s putting foreign travel out the reach of many. Imagine test costs for a family of four
Lockdown this winter. My prediction hasn’t changed - indeed I get the impression that the press are priming us for it.
I did not pay that much. It was £135 for 2 tests combined , the Day 2 and Day 8 and the Day 5 one was £75. In the Eu the test was €70Lockdown this winter. My prediction hasn’t changed - indeed I get the impression that the press are priming us for it.
The day 5 is not compulsory.
Is the testing for adults only?
In the context of a complete holiday package cost is it really that much?
FiF said:
Interesting that ONS are reporting that the % of people positive for antibodies is significantly higher than the modelling prediction which was behind the June 21 plan.
44.6% predicted (Imperial College) of the entire population including children, actual based on testing 80% adults over 16, almost 70% if you include children in the figures.
Imperial College got their predictions wrong, by a lot. Knock me down with a feather, that’s not happened before?44.6% predicted (Imperial College) of the entire population including children, actual based on testing 80% adults over 16, almost 70% if you include children in the figures.
But it’s ok because HMG policy is based on their woefully bad guesses, again.
EddieSteadyGo said:
The "cry freedom" comment was made in the (fairly) recent weeks. And the "I see nothing in the data" comment was made last week.
“Cry freedom” interview was in the first week of January, and Grant Shapps told Juliet Hartley Brewer on TalkRadio he’d join her on the baracades if we were not let out once the over 70s and vulnerable were done (February). Then the extremely long road map was released instead.And now we have another 4 weeks. Sorry the messaging from March onwards has been gaslight after gaslights and it’s working because people are simply still going along with it, and they are forgetting reality. That’s the very result of gaslighting.
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