How many have been vaccinated so far?

[MiniMan64]

EddieSteadyGo said:

Exactly!

And so unless Whitty and Vallance, who I think are still pretty well respected and trusted by most people, start making public arguments on this matter soon, it will be too late and an extension will be the only realistic political option.

It doesn't matter if Javid and Sunak's instincts are all gun-ho for July. The arguments need to be carefully constructed well before then, and they need to address the nuances you refer to.

Or they’ll start leaking to the press in a week or so so that everyone knows what’s coming before it annonced

[EddieSteadyGo]

MiniMan64 said:

EddieSteadyGo said:

Exactly!

And so unless Whitty and Vallance, who I think are still pretty well respected and trusted by most people, start making public arguments on this matter soon, it will be too late and an extension will be the only realistic political option.

It doesn't matter if Javid and Sunak's instincts are all gun-ho for July. The arguments need to be carefully constructed well before then, and they need to address the nuances you refer to.

Or they’ll start leaking to the press in a week or so so that everyone knows what’s coming before it annonced

If we are getting an extension to stage 4, we can be sure to read on via Peston first....

[b0rk]

EddieSteadyGo said:

Exactly!

And so unless Whitty and Vallance, who I think are still pretty well respected and trusted by most people, start making public arguments on this matter soon, it will be too late and an extension will be the only realistic political option.

It doesn't matter if Javid and Sunak's instincts are all gun-ho for July. The arguments need to be carefully constructed well before then, and they need to address the nuances you refer to.

The midpoint "review" today was the opportune moment to change the narrative, yet we get sodding leaks about changes to school bubbles isolation coming in September. To live with covid long term means scrapping bubbles and isolation in the main not tweaking the rules a bit.
Unlocking on the 19th if it happens against rising cases as you highlighted going to be a giant WTF moment in the mainstream.

Still curious why if the leaks from the last few weeks that JCVI recommended against routine covid vaccination of 12-15 year olds where correct the recommendation hasn't been formally announced or for that matter the leaks denied as untrue. I guess DHSC do really want to jab everything that's human(ish).

[RiseUp]

Three billion doses have been administered in total from checking the covidvax.live website. Mainly driven by China's seemingly impossible feat of averaging 22,000,000 doses a day which accounts for more than 50% of all doses per day.

Australia still lagging behind and ridiculous rules being used as knee-jerk reactions to cases. Two week lockdown for Sydney with 5, yes 5 people in hospital.

New mask mandate for most of southern Queensland for 2 cases.

[dmahon]

MOTORVATOR said:

In fact we will likely see record levels of prevalence hit given we aren't bringing any interventions back in and I doubt it will be peaking and dropping off that quick either.

This does make the assumption that the interventions make a blind bit of difference. Look at India where they had the big peak and then the fall off, despite no potential for a credible lockdown. Even as a massive skeptic to the restrictions, I’m surprised just how ineffective they seem to be.

[MOTORVATOR]

dmahon said:

MOTORVATOR said:

In fact we will likely see record levels of prevalence hit given we aren't bringing any interventions back in and I doubt it will be peaking and dropping off that quick either.

This does make the assumption that the interventions make a blind bit of difference. Look at India where they had the big peak and then the fall off, despite no potential for a credible lockdown. Even as a massive skeptic to the restrictions, I’m surprised just how ineffective they seem to be.

I'm not sure 'India' is a good example of where we want to go.

Removed their relaxation plans and retaining restrictions in place

https://www.hindustantimes.com/cities/mumbai-news/...

Scotland appears to be showing what may happen with near vertical growth rates in cases and I'm really not sure what the natural saturation level of prevalence will be going forward with all social distancing removed to pre 16/3/20 standard. Come to that I've not got a clue what the background level of prevalence will be once endemic equilibrium is finally reached.

And high prevalence of course raises the risk of a breakout variant. Not sure if we will all laugh or cry if we see a killer Krankie variant.

[dmahon]

MOTORVATOR said:

I'm not sure 'India' is a good example of where we want to go.

They don’t have a chance at any realistic social distancing or lockdowns in India, yet it came and reversed as a massive spike. These waves rather than exponential growth seem to be the norm regardless of the NPIs. See also Florida and Texas vs California where restrictions barely move the needle.

The next few weeks will hopefully be another nail in the coffin of NPIs. As we open up further we will see cases in the UK decline. I guess they’ll give the credit to vaccines.

[Sixpackpert]

thepeoplespal said:

V8 Stang said:

Considering the massive push to get people to get vaccinated, its a bit surprising at how few vaccination places there are.

I live in Dursley/Stroud, and the nearest vax is in either Bath or centre of bristol, both a 40 min drive away!!

Think i will pass...


You would think they would have drive through locations all over the place...

You'll probably get an invite from the primary care network your GP surgery is affiliated to, just make sure you have your mobile number registered at your GP surgery.

I live in Gloucester and had a call from my local GP for my first jab, that was done in Churchdown community centre.

Went to book my second jab the other day and a chemist in Stroud was listed.

Keep checking the booking website daily and you will find a local place eventually, or just wait for your gp to call.

[MOTORVATOR]

dmahon said:

MOTORVATOR said:

I'm not sure 'India' is a good example of where we want to go.

They don’t have a chance at any realistic social distancing or lockdowns in India, yet it came and reversed as a massive spike. These waves rather than exponential growth seem to be the norm regardless of the NPIs. See also Florida and Texas vs California where restrictions barely move the needle.

The next few weeks will hopefully be another nail in the coffin of NPIs. As we open up further we will see cases in the UK decline. I guess they’ll give the credit to vaccines.

The more severe NPI's though have been introduced after the start of exponential rise in cases as they have been focussed on hospitalisations etc.

Not sure how you think cases will decline in UK as we open up further as we are already on a rising trajectory at present. The question in my head is what level of prevalence will now be reached given we aren't going to introduce any restrictions and in fact remove all?

Its not necessarily important, as I think we can be confident that we aren't going to overwhelm health services, other than a gauge for how we are viewed by the rest of the world and the risk of variants.

[NRS]

RiseUp said:

Three billion doses have been administered in total from checking the covidvax.live website. Mainly driven by China's seemingly impossible feat of averaging 22,000,000 doses a day which accounts for more than 50% of all doses per day.

Australia still lagging behind and ridiculous rules being used as knee-jerk reactions to cases. Two week lockdown for Sydney with 5, yes 5 people in hospital.

New mask mandate for most of southern Queensland for 2 cases.

It makes sense for Australia if they can get rid of this outbreak again. They've basically lived as normal compared to Europe so far, so a 2 week lockdown if it works to get rid of this outbreak makes a lot of sense. It's worked before on previous outbreaks, and has meant overall far less restrictions in their lives. So it's a bit silly to say it's a stupid strategy.

The big 2 issues are their vaccine program. Super slow to start with it was basically all relying on AZ for the most part. That's now restricted to over 60's last I saw. So they're a bit stuck on slow jabbing, and a pretty anti-vaxx stance from many. Many don't care about closed borders so are happy for things to continue as they are.

The second issue is we'll see more and more evolutions in the virus, which will likely increase it's infection rate. So what worked before to break infection spreads may not work with Delta or future even more evolved strains. If one of those gets out they basically have very few people vaccinated, and effectively no natural immunity from previous outbreaks. So they'd have far more people being rushed to hospital at the same time as it spreads more quickly, and it's much harder to stop as it's more infectious. You could end up with a very rapid wave that overwhelms the health service as it happens much faster than say the early UK waves. So perhaps we got "lucky" in the UK with having our waves early on with strains that were less rapid (although of course the Kent one was already improved, hence some of the issues).

[98elise]

V8 Stang said:

Considering the massive push to get people to get vaccinated, its a bit surprising at how few vaccination places there are.

I live in Dursley/Stroud, and the nearest vax is in either Bath or centre of bristol, both a 40 min drive away!!

Think i will pass...


You would think they would have drive through locations all over the place...

Is your GP not doing vaccinations? Two seconds on Google shows multiple GP's in your area operating vaccination clinics.

My family have all had jabs, and we used 3 different vaccination clinics. Furthest distance driven was 3 miles.

Edited to add...

Just checked a vaccination center map and you have a mass vaccination center in Stroud in a pharmacy + the GP ones.

Edited by 98elise on Tuesday 29th June 09:30

[joestifff]

MiniMan64 said:

EddieSteadyGo said:

Exactly!

And so unless Whitty and Vallance, who I think are still pretty well respected and trusted by most people, start making public arguments on this matter soon, it will be too late and an extension will be the only realistic political option.

It doesn't matter if Javid and Sunak's instincts are all gun-ho for July. The arguments need to be carefully constructed well before then, and they need to address the nuances you refer to.

Or they’ll start leaking to the press in a week or so so that everyone knows what’s coming before it annonced

I was hoping this, nearest is over 2 hour roundtrip for me. Still waiting for GP to get in touch, I am 37 for reference, so that age range has been done and dusted. Plenty of people around me who are waiting.

[johnboy1975]

EddieSteadyGo said:

Not-The-Messiah said:

If 90% are vaccinated we will have a level of heard immunity yes we could see numbers being infected in the younger non vaccinated groups but its not and has not been a problem within itself. The problem was that it would then usually spared the older groups if the vaccines this is not going to happen.

Wales is already at 90% adults 1st dose vaccinated. So we can probably look to see where they get to by mid July in terms of the rate of change to get an indication for the rest of the UK will be in early August.

But we also need to take account that stage 4 will see another step up in terms of close mixing, as all social distancing etc would be removed.

Aren't the majority of the cases, and the vast majority of the testing, in the 12-18 cohort? (My supposition: a good chunk of the remainder come from hospital procedure testing before admittal)

In which case vaccinating every last 18-100 person won't meaningfully change the daily positive count.

The crucial thing is that this time, it won't spill over into the older cohorts, which cause the hospitilisarions and deaths.

Bork is spot on. We need to stop testing. Particularly the kids. 19th July would be a good end point. We can't do this all winter, surely? (With symptoms including a runny nose - although this is causing enough problems in summer, due to hay-fever symptoms being similar)

BTW, I see the review said no to the 5th of July. Do we know what they were looking for, and what conditions weren't met? If it's that we didn't do 4 weeks of jabs in 2 weeks (no st sherlock) then there wasn't much point in having the review at all, was there? AFAIK, the initial data wrt 24th June was all better than forecast. So I'm at a bit of a loss as to why terminus day has been delayed twice now. Third times a charm?

[sim72]

johnboy1975 said:

Aren't the majority of the cases, and the vast majority of the testing, in the 12-18 cohort? (My supposition: a good chunk of the remainder come from hospital procedure testing before admittal)

In which case vaccinating every last 18-100 person won't meaningfully change the daily positive count.

Our PHE contact said that around 60% of their local cases were in schoolkids.

[EddieSteadyGo]

sim72 said:

johnboy1975 said:

Aren't the majority of the cases, and the vast majority of the testing, in the 12-18 cohort? (My supposition: a good chunk of the remainder come from hospital procedure testing before admittal)

In which case vaccinating every last 18-100 person won't meaningfully change the daily positive count.

Our PHE contact said that around 60% of their local cases were in schoolkids.

This chart is from the Zoe app data showing estimated covid prevalence by age. The group in the 20-29 looks to be the main driver of new infections.


https://twitter.com/Anapecalleddave/status/1409477...

[EddieSteadyGo]

Vanden Saab said:

Not sure what figures you are looking at but admittances to hospital have been the same for the last 2 weeks. people in hospital for a week and deaths also. Allowing for a two or 3 week delay cases quadrupled over that time scale. Even with another doubling of cases to 20,000+ it seems unlikely that hospitalization or deaths will rise much above the present levels. Numbers of cases are not relevant if they are in the under 30s as they do not relate to hospitalization or death.

This chart shows quite neatly the changing relationship between cases and hospitalisation - it is a log scale and the relationship is far different to what it was. But I wouldn't be confident to say hospitalization or deaths will not rise much above the present levels. I suspect they will increase somewhat in August if we do stage 4.



https://twitter.com/statto/status/1409590572583555...

[Desiderata]

OK, I haven't got a clue about these things (as is probably obvious), but my understanding is that vaccines work by triggering production of antibodies and some of the testing works by determining whether antibodies are present.

Can someone explain to me (in simple terms) why people getting vaccinated (and therefore now producing antibodies) then getting tested aren't screwing with the figures for positive tests.

It can't be as simple as :-
1 vaccinate everyone possible
2 vaccinated people produce antibodies
3 encourage people to get tested
4 all those vaccinated people have antibodies so show up as positive tests even though they aren't getting ill.
5 'positive' rates go up but hospitalisation/death rates don't.

Educate me please?

[otolith]

Lateral flow test tests for the presence of antigens (the viral proteins that the antibodies bind to).

PCR test tests for the presence of viral genetic material.

Neither test will be affected by the person being tested having antibodies from vaccination.

The only test you might see affected is tests for the presence of antibodies against covid, which are used to establish whether people have been previously exposed to the pathogen.

[sim72]

Desiderata said:

OK, I haven't got a clue about these things (as is probably obvious), but my understanding is that vaccines work by triggering production of antibodies and some of the testing works by determining whether antibodies are present.

Can someone explain to me (in simple terms) why people getting vaccinated (and therefore now producing antibodies) then getting tested aren't screwing with the figures for positive tests.

The tests look for various parts of the genetic makeup of the virus, not for antibodies.

The vaccine only contains a very small part of that genetic structure, and therefore you will not test positive simply because you are vaccinated.

[Desiderata]

otolith said:

Lateral flow test tests for the presence of antigens (the viral proteins that the antibodies bind to).

PCR test tests for the presence of viral genetic material.

Neither test will be affected by the person being tested having antibodies from vaccination.

The only test you might see affected is tests for the presence of antibodies against covid, which are used to establish whether people have been previously exposed to the pathogen.

Cheers, that make sense. I was mistakenly conflating antigens with antibodies.