Coronavirus - Data Analysis Thread
Discussion
b0rk said:
I was pondering that but then there is Wales which has an autumn and spring curve not too dissimilar to England yet is far from flat post July. Harder and longer measures than England yet a worse situation (for cases) currently. Almost as if the restrictions aren't really that helpful long term. 
Well I am sure that when all this lockdown stuff was first mooted, that the idea behind it very much was that it wasn't going to stop the virus and that we're all going to get it at some point.But what the lockdown idea will do is stem the flow into hospitals for short period of time so that they don't get overwhelmed. Somewhere along the line, that sensible if perhaps fanciful idea, has been taken and twisted into lockdown for zero covid. Which for anyone not hard of thinking, clearly isn't feasible.
b0rk said:
I was pondering that but then there is Wales which has an autumn and spring curve not too dissimilar to England yet is far from flat post July. Harder and longer measures than England yet a worse situation (for cases) currently. Almost as if the restrictions aren't really that helpful long term.
Restrictions were used to reduce new case numbers, and hence pressure on the NHS, whilst people could get vaccinated. Now that almost all vulnerable people and most other people are vaccinated, restrictions have largely been lifted.It seems that restrictions have been extremely helpful long term.
Way above my head, but tweeted by Michael Levitt, Stanford Prof. of biophysics.
Hopefully someone can translate...
“The latest wave in the USA shows how J(t), the log exponential growth factor drops linearly since early July.
It proves yet again what I say since Apr-2020: COVID-19 spread is SELF-LIMITED & Gompertz.”
Data here https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VR3yFG7l1M...
Hopefully someone can translate...
“The latest wave in the USA shows how J(t), the log exponential growth factor drops linearly since early July.
It proves yet again what I say since Apr-2020: COVID-19 spread is SELF-LIMITED & Gompertz.”
Data here https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VR3yFG7l1M...
steveT350C said:
Way above my head, but tweeted by Michael Levitt, Stanford Prof. of biophysics.
Hopefully someone can translate...
“The latest wave in the USA shows how J(t), the log exponential growth factor drops linearly since early July.
It proves yet again what I say since Apr-2020: COVID-19 spread is SELF-LIMITED & Gompertz.”
Data here https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VR3yFG7l1M...
The Gompertz growth function is not exponential. It looks that way initially, but it is always reducing so the peak is inevitable. Hopefully someone can translate...
“The latest wave in the USA shows how J(t), the log exponential growth factor drops linearly since early July.
It proves yet again what I say since Apr-2020: COVID-19 spread is SELF-LIMITED & Gompertz.”
Data here https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VR3yFG7l1M...
Levitts observation is essentially the reason why we have epidemic curves. Something stops every virus eventually. Farrs law also covers this and shows us how to back calculate the peak of infections from the observed peak of deaths:
https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-19-william-far...
When we do this we can see that infections were slowing and had in fact already peaked before any of the lockdowns had an impact.
Some people were trying to flag this last June, but were shouted down:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8391141/D...
The most reasonable theory is that, as the epidemic grows, people become more concerned and take action voluntarily to limit their contracts.
This is echoed by the findings of John P Ioannidis:
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_i...
Ioannidis et al said:
While small benefits cannot be excluded, mandatory stay-at-home and business closure orders do not seem to have had substantial benefits on case growth in 8 countries in the early stages of the pandemic. Similar reductions in case growth may be achievable with behavior changes from less restrictive interventions
CarlosFandango11 said:
b0rk said:
I was pondering that but then there is Wales which has an autumn and spring curve not too dissimilar to England yet is far from flat post July. Harder and longer measures than England yet a worse situation (for cases) currently. Almost as if the restrictions aren't really that helpful long term.
Restrictions were used to reduce new case numbers, and hence pressure on the NHS, whilst people could get vaccinated. Now that almost all vulnerable people and most other people are vaccinated, restrictions have largely been lifted.It seems that restrictions have been extremely helpful long term.
Elysium said:
steveT350C said:
Way above my head, but tweeted by Michael Levitt, Stanford Prof. of biophysics.
Hopefully someone can translate...
“The latest wave in the USA shows how J(t), the log exponential growth factor drops linearly since early July.
It proves yet again what I say since Apr-2020: COVID-19 spread is SELF-LIMITED & Gompertz.”
Data here https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VR3yFG7l1M...
The Gompertz growth function is not exponential. It looks that way initially, but it is always reducing so the peak is inevitable. Hopefully someone can translate...
“The latest wave in the USA shows how J(t), the log exponential growth factor drops linearly since early July.
It proves yet again what I say since Apr-2020: COVID-19 spread is SELF-LIMITED & Gompertz.”
Data here https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VR3yFG7l1M...
Levitts observation is essentially the reason why we have epidemic curves. Something stops every virus eventually. Farrs law also covers this and shows us how to back calculate the peak of infections from the observed peak of deaths:
https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-19-william-far...
When we do this we can see that infections were slowing and had in fact already peaked before any of the lockdowns had an impact.
Some people were trying to flag this last June, but were shouted down:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8391141/D...
The most reasonable theory is that, as the epidemic grows, people become more concerned and take action voluntarily to limit their contracts.
This is echoed by the findings of John P Ioannidis:
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_i...
Ioannidis et al said:
While small benefits cannot be excluded, mandatory stay-at-home and business closure orders do not seem to have had substantial benefits on case growth in 8 countries in the early stages of the pandemic. Similar reductions in case growth may be achievable with behavior changes from less restrictive interventions
TL;DR - virus gonna virus.
CarlosFandango11 said:
Restrictions were used to reduce new case numbers, and hence pressure on the NHS, whilst people could get vaccinated. Now that almost all vulnerable people and most other people are vaccinated, restrictions have largely been lifted.
It seems that restrictions have been extremely helpful long term.
Indeed. The NHS is in a fantastic state and there is zero talk of further restrictions being needed over the winter.It seems that restrictions have been extremely helpful long term.
Oh, wait...
SWoll said:
CarlosFandango11 said:
Restrictions were used to reduce new case numbers, and hence pressure on the NHS, whilst people could get vaccinated. Now that almost all vulnerable people and most other people are vaccinated, restrictions have largely been lifted.
It seems that restrictions have been extremely helpful long term.
Indeed. The NHS is in a fantastic state and there is zero talk of further restrictions being needed over the winter.It seems that restrictions have been extremely helpful long term.
Oh, wait...
CarlosFandango11 said:
I didn’t imply that the NHS is in a fantastic statement neither did I imply that restrictions wouldn’t be needed over winter….
You did say that the restrictions have been extremely helpful in the long term. Some would argue that most weren't very helpful and they've simply delayed people catching it.
Personally, I think they helped protect some who now have increased resistance from vaccines available but I couldn't tell you if in protecting those lives, more lives haven't been damaged.
I suspect that they've saved a few people who will probably be dead from something else soon anyway but created a whole new load of s
t for lots of people who would have had years of quality life ahead had most or no restrictions been brought in.We seem obsessed with extending the life of those who are close to end of life.
Pistom said:
CarlosFandango11 said:
I didn’t imply that the NHS is in a fantastic statement neither did I imply that restrictions wouldn’t be needed over winter….
You did say that the restrictions have been extremely helpful in the long term. Some would argue that most weren't very helpful and they've simply delayed people catching it.
Personally, I think they helped protect some who now have increased resistance from vaccines available but I couldn't tell you if in protecting those lives, more lives haven't been damaged.
I suspect that they've saved a few people who will probably be dead from something else soon anyway but created a whole new load of s
t for lots of people who would have had years of quality life ahead had most or no restrictions been brought in.We seem obsessed with extending the life of those who are close to end of life.
spikeyhead said:
Pistom said:
CarlosFandango11 said:
I didn’t imply that the NHS is in a fantastic statement neither did I imply that restrictions wouldn’t be needed over winter….
You did say that the restrictions have been extremely helpful in the long term. Some would argue that most weren't very helpful and they've simply delayed people catching it.
Personally, I think they helped protect some who now have increased resistance from vaccines available but I couldn't tell you if in protecting those lives, more lives haven't been damaged.
I suspect that they've saved a few people who will probably be dead from something else soon anyway but created a whole new load of s
t for lots of people who would have had years of quality life ahead had most or no restrictions been brought in.We seem obsessed with extending the life of those who are close to end of life.
Data rich link from Professor Norman Fenton, Queen Mary University London
‘A comparison of age adjusted all-cause mortality rates in England between vaccinated and unvaccinated
It turns out that, even using this age adjusted mortality rate, the death rate is currently higher among the vaccinated than the unvaccinated.’
https://probabilityandlaw.blogspot.com/2021/09/all...
‘A comparison of age adjusted all-cause mortality rates in England between vaccinated and unvaccinated
It turns out that, even using this age adjusted mortality rate, the death rate is currently higher among the vaccinated than the unvaccinated.’
https://probabilityandlaw.blogspot.com/2021/09/all...
A quick update on the numbers:
1. Cases are rising again, but we are still within the envelope of previous mini-peaks in July and August.
2. Correcting for testing levels, Cases per 100k tests still looks flat and the CFR is trending down as cases trend up.
3. Admissions also looking flat
4. When you look at Cases per 100k tests, Admissions and Deaths with an appropriate lag you see its all still in close balance. It is simply that cases result in less admissions (2.27% in the last 2 weeks) and less deaths (0.3% in the last 2 weeks) than earlier in the pandemic. It seems highly likely to me that this is the impact of vaccines protecting the majority of vulnerable people and that cases are increasingly in younger groups who are not seeing serious illness.
1. Cases are rising again, but we are still within the envelope of previous mini-peaks in July and August.
2. Correcting for testing levels, Cases per 100k tests still looks flat and the CFR is trending down as cases trend up.
3. Admissions also looking flat
4. When you look at Cases per 100k tests, Admissions and Deaths with an appropriate lag you see its all still in close balance. It is simply that cases result in less admissions (2.27% in the last 2 weeks) and less deaths (0.3% in the last 2 weeks) than earlier in the pandemic. It seems highly likely to me that this is the impact of vaccines protecting the majority of vulnerable people and that cases are increasingly in younger groups who are not seeing serious illness.
steveT350C said:
Data rich link from Professor Norman Fenton, Queen Mary University London
‘A comparison of age adjusted all-cause mortality rates in England between vaccinated and unvaccinated
It turns out that, even using this age adjusted mortality rate, the death rate is currently higher among the vaccinated than the unvaccinated.’
https://probabilityandlaw.blogspot.com/2021/09/all...
Useful, thanks for that link ‘A comparison of age adjusted all-cause mortality rates in England between vaccinated and unvaccinated
It turns out that, even using this age adjusted mortality rate, the death rate is currently higher among the vaccinated than the unvaccinated.’
https://probabilityandlaw.blogspot.com/2021/09/all...
Cases per 100k tests and Deaths within 28 Days have been running at higher levels in summer 2021 than they did last year. Because of Delta and the 'exit wave' triggered by the removal of all domestic restrictions (at least in England).
However, we have now reached the point where seasonality began to drive growth in 2020
The dotted lines are 2020 and the solid ones are 2021. Right now 2020 looks worse. The big question is what happens next:
However, we have now reached the point where seasonality began to drive growth in 2020
The dotted lines are 2020 and the solid ones are 2021. Right now 2020 looks worse. The big question is what happens next:
Something interesting is kicking off in the South West:
https://coviddatashare.s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/...
Taking just a sample of LA's as an example to demonstrate the rate/100k case growth in the last 7 days:
Cheltenham - 155 --> 950
Stroud - 152 --> 930
Tewkesbury - 98 --> 825
These rates will move higher again tomorrow. I have not seen case growth like this so far in the pandemic. These 3 were in the bottom 10 of the 315 LA's 7 days ago and now they are in the top 10.
This case growth is not being seen in any other region, although the South East is starting to show strong case growth:
https://coviddatashare.s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/...
Something has changed!
https://coviddatashare.s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/...
Taking just a sample of LA's as an example to demonstrate the rate/100k case growth in the last 7 days:
Cheltenham - 155 --> 950
Stroud - 152 --> 930
Tewkesbury - 98 --> 825
These rates will move higher again tomorrow. I have not seen case growth like this so far in the pandemic. These 3 were in the bottom 10 of the 315 LA's 7 days ago and now they are in the top 10.
This case growth is not being seen in any other region, although the South East is starting to show strong case growth:
https://coviddatashare.s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/...
Something has changed!
Edited by Ashfordian on Tuesday 19th October 19:34
Ashfordian said:
Something interesting in kicking off in the South West:
https://coviddatashare.s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/...
Taking just a sample of LA's as an example to demonstrate the rate/100k case growth in the last 7 days:
Cheltenham - 155 --> 950
Stroud - 152 --> 930
Tewkesbury - 98 --> 825
These rates will move higher again tomorrow. I have not seen case growth like this so far in the pandemic. These 3 were in the bottom 10 of the 315 LA's 7 days ago and now they are in the top 10.
This case growth is not being seen in any other region, although the South East is starting to show strong case growth:
https://coviddatashare.s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/...
Something has changed!
It's covered by the lab where they've plugged the Covid testing machine back in after the cleaner unplugged it a few weeks ago.https://coviddatashare.s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/...
Taking just a sample of LA's as an example to demonstrate the rate/100k case growth in the last 7 days:
Cheltenham - 155 --> 950
Stroud - 152 --> 930
Tewkesbury - 98 --> 825
These rates will move higher again tomorrow. I have not seen case growth like this so far in the pandemic. These 3 were in the bottom 10 of the 315 LA's 7 days ago and now they are in the top 10.
This case growth is not being seen in any other region, although the South East is starting to show strong case growth:
https://coviddatashare.s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/...
Something has changed!
https://mobile.twitter.com/apsmunro/status/1450484...
Interesting thread, only thing I can think that obvious is reinfections which isnt as helpful as new infections to build immunity.
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