Coronavirus - Data Analysis Thread

[Roderick Spode]

rovermorris999 said:

A well-qualified statistician had a look at the data and has presented it, here's what he thinks: (mods: the author states he's happy for the article to be shared verbatim)

https://jdee.substack.com/p/vaccines-and-death-par...

Make of it what you will.

Oh my. If this is even 10% valid, then it should be a cause of enormous concern for the many million jabees out there. I don't expect there will be an official analysis into this any time soon.

[Boringvolvodriver]

Roderick Spode said:

rovermorris999 said:

A well-qualified statistician had a look at the data and has presented it, here's what he thinks: (mods: the author states he's happy for the article to be shared verbatim)

https://jdee.substack.com/p/vaccines-and-death-par...

Make of it what you will.

Oh my. If this is even 10% valid, then it should be a cause of enormous concern for the many million jabees out there. I don't expect there will be an official analysis into this any time soon.

Mmm - not enough of an expert to make an informed comment - would be interested ti hear what those who understand the numbers better (Isaldiri and Elysium spring to mind) have to say.

Initial thought is that it doesn’t look good although there may be a valid explanation- I know John Campbell did a piece yesterday where he was asking the question as to what was causing the excess deaths along with the obvious one as to why they are not being investigated.

[spikeyhead]

It should be fairly easy to dig into the data to find out the proportion of the excess deaths that were jabbed. Just need access to the data.

[NWTony]

Roderick Spode said:

Oh my. If this is even 10% valid, then it should be a cause of enormous concern for the many million jabees out there. I don't expect there will be an official analysis into this any time soon.

I'm no expert statistician but if its only 10% valid that means its 90% invalid and therefore basically nonsense, so fingers crossed your prediction of 10% works out.

[Boringvolvodriver]

spikeyhead said:

It should be fairly easy to dig into the data to find out the proportion of the excess deaths that were jabbed. Just need access to the data.

Still nit going to prove anything either way though - if the excess deaths were all jabbed it could still be argued that the excess deaths were a coincidence or down to the poor NHS repsonse.

If (and for the sake of clarity I am not saying that the vaccine has anything to do with the excess deaths) it were the case that the vaccine was playing a part, do you really think that this would be made public? Can you imagine the outcry?

[rovermorris999]

The statistician, John Dee, has published several follow-ons from that piece, I think you can find them on Facebook. Look for 'John Dee's Almanac'.
I'm no statistician but my wife has a stats degree and says the analysis looks ok at a quick look. What inference can be taken from it is another thing. Correlation isn't necessarily causation, as Mr Dee points out, but something caused that peak. It could be non-related reasons that just happen to coincide producing the peak but certainly worth a closer look.

[sim72]

rovermorris999 said:

A well-qualified statistician had a look at the data and has presented it, here's what he thinks: (mods: the author states he's happy for the article to be shared verbatim)

https://jdee.substack.com/p/vaccines-and-death-par...

Make of it what you will.

First graph...

The first peak (on the left) is Beta (Kent).

The middle peak (2021-25 to 2021-50 approx) is Delta.

The right peak is the height of Omicron.

If you look at the excess deaths against ONS COVID case data, that matches for Delta nearly perfectly with the usual 3 week delay. It doesn't work so well for Omicron BA1, but we know that was less deadly anyway, so it should be expected.

[Elysium]

Biker 1 said:

My man maths isn't up to it on a Monday afternoon - what does the IFR look like for under 70s these days? I suspect its something similar to complications from the common cold(???)

A belated follow up to this specific question and the thread in general.

John P Ioannidis is one of the worlds most eminent epidemiologists. He faced a huge backlash early in the pandemic because he published a paper showing relatively low Infection Fatality Rates. However, his estimates do seem to have been borne out by the data.

This is his latest paper:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.10.11...

Ioannidis et al said:

Across 31 systematically identified national seroprevalence studies in the pre-vaccination era, the median infection fatality rate of COVID-19 was estimated to be 0.035% for people aged 0-59 years people and 0.095% for those aged 0-69 years.

• The median IFR was 0.0003% at 0-19 years, 0.003% at 20-29 years, 0.011% at 30-39 years, 0.035% at 40-49 years, 0.129% at 50-59 years, and 0.501% at 60-69 years.

• At a global level, pre-vaccination IFR may have been as low as 0.03% and 0.07% for 0-59 and 0-69 year old people, respectively.

I last updated this spreadsheet, which is based on ONS data, in January 2022. PFR is the 'Population Fatality Rate'



I calculated the PFR's for under 59's in England and Wales as 0.0279% and for under 69's as 0.059%

You might reasonably expect Population Fatality Rates to be 20-40% lower than Infection Fatality Rates depending on the proportion of each age group that had recovered from COVID at that point.

On that basis, Ioannidis' numbers check out very well. However, it remains unclear how much that IFR was dragged down by the following:

1. Herd immunity slowing transmission
2. Infection derived immunity
3. Vaccine derived immunity

We know the Case Fatality Rate fell over time, so it follows that this was probably also the case for the IFR. This graph covers the period from July 2020 to March 2022:



In any event, it seems likely that the current IFR's for those under 70 in the UK are somewhere in the region Ioannidis has reported.

[rover 623gsi]

so do I have my booster jab or not?

[B'stard Child]

rover 623gsi said:

so do I have my booster jab or not?

Up to you

[Otispunkmeyer]

rover 623gsi said:

so do I have my booster jab or not?

You can do what you like. Its entirely your Choice now (as it should have always been).

[Elysium]

I would say that it depends on two things:

1. Where you fit in here



2. If you have already recovered from COVID

A booster now is going to stimulate an antibody response that should provide a small reduction in the risk of infection for a brief period of 8-10 weeks.

The benefits and risk of that should be clearly demonstrated to ensure informed consent.

I have already decided that I will not be having one.

[johnboy1975]

Elysium said:

I would say that it depends on two things:

1. Where you fit in here



2. If you have already recovered from COVID

A booster now is going to stimulate an antibody response that should provide a small reduction in the risk of infection for a brief period of 8-10 weeks.

The benefits and risk of that should be clearly demonstrated to ensure informed consent.

I have already decided that I will not be having one.

What would be great is if we knew whether having a booster helped reduce your chances of hospitalisation / death. Which I can't help but feel is being sold as as a slam dunk - "of course it will" (I stand to be corrected if it's not being marketed as such). But - as Elysium says - if you've already had 2 / 3 / 4 jabs plus possibly covid once (or twice) I think it's far less clear cut.

Having had 2 jabs and 2 infections I won't be having one. Very glad not to be offered the choice at the tender age of 46. Far too late for a U turn now - although I suppose if take up is low the age might be lowered on a strictly voluntary basis.

[sim72]

johnboy1975 said:

What would be great is if we knew whether having a booster helped reduce your chances of hospitalisation / death. Which I can't help but feel is being sold as as a slam dunk - "of course it will" (I stand to be corrected if it's not being marketed as such). But - as Elysium says - if you've already had 2 / 3 / 4 jabs plus possibly covid once (or twice) I think it's far less clear cut.

Having had 2 jabs and 2 infections I won't be having one. Very glad not to be offered the choice at the tender age of 46. Far too late for a U turn now - although I suppose if take up is low the age might be lowered on a strictly voluntary basis.

I actually got the text inviting me for the booster today, having recently passed the big five-oh.

Not that I can have it for another month, because I've got Covid at the moment, for the second time in five months. Interestingly (and annoyingly) this one is worse than the first, which was like having a cold. Whether that's due to being further away from the last booster jab, I don't know.

Anecdotally, a lot of people have got it at the moment - we've got more staff off with it at the moment than we have since late 2020.

[Biker 1]

Not been jabbed even once. I've had covid at least once, maybe twice. First bout was the dreaded delta this time last year.
I don't intend to get jabbed as I'm more concerned about the potential side effects.
Incidentally, the poster above mentioned many of his staff off with covid. How do they know? Are they actually purchasing test kits?

[Carl_Manchester]

Biker 1 said:

Not been jabbed even once. I've had covid at least once, maybe twice. First bout was the dreaded delta this time last year.
I don't intend to get jabbed as I'm more concerned about the potential side effects.
Incidentally, the poster above mentioned many of his staff off with covid. How do they know? Are they actually purchasing test kits?

As an aside, I have spotted the test kits appearing in my local corner shops, in and amongst the counter paraphernalia, I bought a couple the other week when my little one came down with hand, foot and mouth.

As posted by various people in the forums, these new waves tend to start when the kids go back to school. I know for a fact that there's quite a large outbreak (of COVID) still happening in two hospitals in England, amongst staff and patients. My mum and dad caught it in one hospital, my mum survived it, my dad passed on Friday due to pneumonia caused by Covid.

They were both jabbed four/five times but as we know, these new variants go straight through the old jab formula, the new formula probably would have saved him and if the jabs caused heart problems, the ONS data would be more convincing.

[Terminator X]

Take up of the current booster is allegedly low so I predict many stories of doom in the news to "nudge" us.

TX.

[Elysium]

Carl_Manchester said:

Biker 1 said:

Not been jabbed even once. I've had covid at least once, maybe twice. First bout was the dreaded delta this time last year.
I don't intend to get jabbed as I'm more concerned about the potential side effects.
Incidentally, the poster above mentioned many of his staff off with covid. How do they know? Are they actually purchasing test kits?

As an aside, I have spotted the test kits appearing in my local corner shops, in and amongst the counter paraphernalia, I bought a couple the other week when my little one came down with hand, foot and mouth.

As posted by various people in the forums, these new waves tend to start when the kids go back to school. I know for a fact that there's quite a large outbreak (of COVID) still happening in two hospitals in England, amongst staff and patients. My mum and dad caught it in one hospital, my mum survived it, my dad passed on Friday due to pneumonia caused by Covid.

They were both jabbed four/five times but as we know, these new variants go straight through the old jab formula, the new formula probably would have saved him and if the jabs caused heart problems, the ONS data would be more convincing.

Sorry to hear about your dad.

I think the majority of people still have test kits knocking about having been given them by schools, work and vaccination clinics during the pandemic.

Unfortunately, the end result of it all is that we now have a new endemic disease, which will continue to cause problems for the elderly and vulnerable for a few more years at least.

Annual boosters, timed to coincide with the usual coronavirus season might help, but only a bit. The reality is that, as with any other virus, it was only ever about our immune systems.

[johnboy1975]

sim72 said:

I actually got the text inviting me for the booster today, having recently passed the big five-oh.

Not that I can have it for another month, because I've got Covid at the moment, for the second time in five months. Interestingly (and annoyingly) this one is worse than the first, which was like having a cold. Whether that's due to being further away from the last booster jab, I don't know.

Anecdotally, a lot of people have got it at the moment - we've got more staff off with it at the moment than we have since late 2020.

So you intend to get the booster in 30 days? I think you're infection will give you better, and longer, protection. I dont understand a mechanism whereby the vaccine would outperform the protection from your infection- AIUI the best that can be hoped for is an equal match (both in terms of length between bouts, and severity of symptoms once infected).

Whether your 4th or 5th jab lessens symptoms for your (inevitable) 3rd infection goes to the crux of the matter I suppose.

Also very interested in your 2nd infection being worse than your first. This isn't the CT thread so I wont suggest the vaccine is weakening your immune system (tbf I dont want to believe that, and actually I don't). But I do worry that the data - which should be abundant - seems to be lacking. I want to see data for 1000 (say) repeat infections in the each of the unvaxxed, double vaxxed only, and boosted camps - age stratified.

My position is you are (broadly) "good to go" once you've had your first infection, which is borne out by my experience, but your experience counters. Although at a certain age, every infection is potentially dangerous / fatal (whether that be covid or something else)

Maybe it's just a more severe variant? (which doesn't bode well for the forthcoming winter)

Not sure if I've crossed into the "other thread" here, that wasnt my intention...

[RSTurboPaul]

Elysium said:

I would say that it depends on two things:

1. Where you fit in here



2. If you have already recovered from COVID

A booster now is going to stimulate an antibody response that should provide a small reduction in the risk of infection for a brief period of 8-10 weeks.

The benefits and risk of that should be clearly demonstrated to ensure informed consent.

I have already decided that I will not be having one.

Thanks as always for your data crunching, Elysium


Please may I check - this graph is showing somewhere around 1-2% Case Fatality Rate for the 60-69 age range, but the quoted info in your other post from Ioannidis is that the Infection Fatality Rate is around 0.5% for the 60-69.

Elysium said:

This is his latest paper:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.10.11...

Ioannidis et al said:

Across 31 systematically identified national seroprevalence studies in the pre-vaccination era, the median infection fatality rate of COVID-19 was estimated to be 0.035% for people aged 0-59 years people and 0.095% for those aged 0-69 years.

• The median IFR was 0.0003% at 0-19 years, 0.003% at 20-29 years, 0.011% at 30-39 years, 0.035% at 40-49 years, 0.129% at 50-59 years, and 0.501% at 60-69 years.

• At a global level, pre-vaccination IFR may have been as low as 0.03% and 0.07% for 0-59 and 0-69 year old people, respectively.

Is that down to confirmed cases (however that is defined...) being lower than actual infections, many of which won't get diagnosed?


I guess a lot then depends on how many cases are getting confirmed through testing, ergo the level of testing affects the CFRs?

So it would seem ironic if 'Project Moonshot' and similar actually make the illness look less serious, contrary to their 'narrative', because the massive amount of unnecessary testing effectively 'dilutes' the case rates that would normally have been seen?

Edited by RSTurboPaul on Wednesday 19th October 12:09