Coronavirus - Data Analysis Thread

[RSTurboPaul]

The Ethical Skeptic on Twitter has posted to state that the latest data has confirmed CDC are hiding a 9-sigma increase in cancer deaths by reclassifying them as Covid-related:

https://twitter.com/EthicalSkeptic/status/15823969...

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/158239692227885...

[sim72]

johnboy1975 said:

Also very interested in your 2nd infection being worse than your first. This isn't the CT thread so I wont suggest the vaccine is weakening your immune system (tbf I dont want to believe that, and actually I don't). But I do worry that the data - which should be abundant - seems to be lacking. I want to see data for 1000 (say) repeat infections in the each of the unvaxxed, double vaxxed only, and boosted camps - age stratified.

I'm guessing it's just a different version of Covid, since I have had both bouts of Covid since I had my last booster (Dec 2021). If the vaccine had been weakening my immune system I would have expected the first to be worse than the second.

[johnboy1975]

sim72 said:

I'm guessing it's just a different version of Covid, since I have had both bouts of Covid since I had my last booster (Dec 2021). If the vaccine had been weakening my immune system I would have expected the first to be worse than the second.

Sorry to take this off topic, but are you having much disruption due to covid / are you expecting much? Are kids expected to attend if positive? Guess most aren't testing though. Is zoom / online available for those off?

My lads school seems largely unaffected. Good job as his missed so much, and this is GCSE year...

[isaldiri]

sim72 said:

If the vaccine had been weakening my immune system I would have expected the first to be worse than the second.

Um....isn't it the other way round? Not that I believe there is anything at all in the vaccine weakens immune system thing outside of some self justifying nonsense by some but your statement above makes no sense tbh......

[sim72]

isaldiri said:

sim72 said:

If the vaccine had been weakening my immune system I would have expected the first to be worse than the second.

Um....isn't it the other way round? Not that I believe there is anything at all in the vaccine weakens immune system thing outside of some self justifying nonsense by some but your statement above makes no sense tbh......

Well yes - I had all 3 shots before catching Covid for the first time. Surely if the vaccine had been weakening my immune system, then the first infection would have been worse, and the second one weaker because of the antibody effect of the first infection? But it was the other way around.

Edited by sim72 on Wednesday 19th October 22:07

[sim72]

johnboy1975 said:

sim72 said:

I'm guessing it's just a different version of Covid, since I have had both bouts of Covid since I had my last booster (Dec 2021). If the vaccine had been weakening my immune system I would have expected the first to be worse than the second.

Sorry to take this off topic, but are you having much disruption due to covid / are you expecting much? Are kids expected to attend if positive? Guess most aren't testing though. Is zoom / online available for those off?

My lads school seems largely unaffected. Good job as his missed so much, and this is GCSE year...

Not a massive amount of disruption as regards students. but we've had a lot of staff off because of it (like I am at the moment!) Most kids who have it probably aren't testing - which means they're giving it to their teachers. Not a lot we can do about that, tbh.

[Elysium]

RSTurboPaul said:

Please may I check - this graph is showing somewhere around 1-2% Case Fatality Rate for the 60-69 age range, but the quoted info in your other post from Ioannidis is that the Infection Fatality Rate is around 0.5% for the 60-69.

Is that down to confirmed cases (however that is defined...) being lower than actual infections, many of which won't get diagnosed?

I guess a lot then depends on how many cases are getting confirmed through testing, ergo the level of testing affects the CFRs?

So it would seem ironic if 'Project Moonshot' and similar actually make the illness look less serious, contrary to their 'narrative', because the massive amount of unnecessary testing effectively 'dilutes' the case rates that would normally have been seen?

A 'case' in terms of COVID is a positive test result.

As you say the CFR should always be higher than the IFR, because you will never capture every case.

The proportion of cases identified is the Case Ascertainment Rate. Up to a certain point this is obviously influenced by testing capacity. So the early data, when we tested very few people is useless. The CFR is ridiculously high.

This shows that the CFR rose after Sept 2020 as testing ramped up, which is the opposite of what you might expect. Then, through the first half of 2021, during the period of mass vaccination, the CFR fell consistently, whilst tests remained high.

After this point, the CFR does not seem to be impacted by testing levels.





(edited to align end date on 2nd graph)

Edited by Elysium on Thursday 20th October 08:18

[isaldiri]

sim72 said:

Well yes - I had all 3 shots before catching Covid for the first time. Surely if the vaccine had been weakening my immune system, then the first infection would have been worse, and the second one weaker because of the antibody effect of the first infection? But it was the other way around.

That's one way of looking at it yes. I was thinking that if the vaccine was really weakening your immune system, subsequent infections would be steadily worse because said immune system was being weakened.... But anyway it's not a theory that I think has particular merit so not too bothered either way and I merely was curious how you would have thought it was the reverse.

[johnboy1975]

isaldiri said:

sim72 said:

Well yes - I had all 3 shots before catching Covid for the first time. Surely if the vaccine had been weakening my immune system, then the first infection would have been worse, and the second one weaker because of the antibody effect of the first infection? But it was the other way around.

That's one way of looking at it yes. I was thinking that if the vaccine was really weakening your immune system, subsequent infections would be steadily worse because said immune system was being weakened.... But anyway it's not a theory that I think has particular merit so not too bothered either way and I merely was curious how you would have thought it was the reverse.

Had a thought that we could put this to bed in a crude fashion by comparing the number of people in hospital prior to vaccination, and subsequently. If the vaccines were weakening the immune system, surely hospitalisations would be increasing? Which - I think it is fair to say - they are not

[rovermorris999]

johnboy1975 said:

Had a thought that we could put this to bed in a crude fashion by comparing the number of people in hospital prior to vaccination, and subsequently. If the vaccines were weakening the immune system, surely hospitalisations would be increasing? Which - I think it is fair to say - they are not

Excess non-covid deaths are high though. Seems to be the same in Europe too.

[RemarkLima]

rovermorris999 said:

johnboy1975 said:

Had a thought that we could put this to bed in a crude fashion by comparing the number of people in hospital prior to vaccination, and subsequently. If the vaccines were weakening the immune system, surely hospitalisations would be increasing? Which - I think it is fair to say - they are not

Excess non-covid deaths are high though. Seems to be the same in Europe too.

But stress, people being materially poorer, and a healthcare system that has been broken, along with a social care system now understaffed could easily be the cause - as without the same level of care and service, the outcomes are going to be worse.

[grumbledoak]

RemarkLima said:

But stress, people being materially poorer, and a healthcare system that has been broken, along with a social care system now understaffed could easily be the cause - as without the same level of care and service, the outcomes are going to be worse.

I don't think we should just shrug our shoulders and say "Yeah, sure, loads more people are dying. Stands to reason dunnit".

Someone should be analyzing these numbers and working out exactly what is killing these people.

[johnboy1975]

rovermorris999 said:

johnboy1975 said:

Had a thought that we could put this to bed in a crude fashion by comparing the number of people in hospital prior to vaccination, and subsequently. If the vaccines were weakening the immune system, surely hospitalisations would be increasing? Which - I think it is fair to say - they are not

Excess non-covid deaths are high though. Seems to be the same in Europe too.

Thats a different argument. Have we got a low vax country to compare to a high vaxxed one? Guess we could use China wrt the mRNA aspect, although their figures are likely to be highly suspect and they are still suppressing with lockdowns (as far as I'm aware) so you won't fully capture the "is it covid or the vaccine " element of the argument. (How many Chinese are still yet to catch covid as a %? Any reliable figures?)

Maajid Nawaz makes a bold claim

said:

Until Proven Otherwise, it is Likely Covid mRNA Vaccines Played a Significant Role in ALL Unexplained HEART ATTACKS Since 2021”

https://twitter.com/MaajidNawaz/status/1582393561646972930?t=8KscVO_5Dvp5OFALljvmgg&s=19

Except for those in the unvaccinated (obviously). So a comparison between the vaccinated and the unvaccinated wrt All Cause Mortality would clear this up (to an extent, if it was correctly age stratified)

[RemarkLima]

grumbledoak said:

RemarkLima said:

But stress, people being materially poorer, and a healthcare system that has been broken, along with a social care system now understaffed could easily be the cause - as without the same level of care and service, the outcomes are going to be worse.

I don't think we should just shrug our shoulders and say "Yeah, sure, loads more people are dying. Stands to reason dunnit".

Someone should be analyzing these numbers and working out exactly what is killing these people.

Oh, I do not disagree!

Having done some work for PHE in the past around their SQL databases, I'd be amazed if they can get, correlate and make sense of the data... It may end up being in the "too hard" pile more than likely!

[rovermorris999]

RemarkLima said:

Oh, I do not disagree!

Having done some work for PHE in the past around their SQL databases, I'd be amazed if they can get, correlate and make sense of the data... It may end up being in the "too hard" pile more than likely!

John Dee has done some good work on this, I think it's available on Facebook.

[RSTurboPaul]

The Ethical Skeptic has looked at the data, and it appears that the 'Our World In Data' data is over-counting Covid deaths?

https://twitter.com/EthicalSkeptic/status/15965537...

[CarCrazyDad]

RSTurboPaul said:

The Ethical Skeptic has looked at the data, and it appears that the 'Our World In Data' data is over-counting Covid deaths?

https://twitter.com/EthicalSkeptic/status/15965537...

No it's true. Conspiracy theorists! Stop.

Am I doing this right?

[RSTurboPaul]

Dr John Campbell discusses Absolute and Relative Risk Reduction with Prof Norman Fenton, with a very useful slide around the 8m50s mark:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fgVpVHL8nkY

[Terminator X]

It sounds like you have lies, damn lies and then stats / %ages.

TX.

[R Mutt]

RSTurboPaul said:

Dr John Campbell discusses Absolute and Relative Risk Reduction with Prof Norman Fenton, with a very useful slide around the 8m50s mark:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fgVpVHL8nkY

But this is the sort of thing that was 'fact checked' highlighting that RRR was the common methodology and that ARR obviously being a lower number was simply a result of this 'wrong' methodology.

https://www.reuters.com/article/factcheck-thelance...