Coronavirus - Data Analysis Thread
Discussion
Flu and pneumonia are now killing almost as many people as Covid as official fatality figures show four regions suffered NO deaths on at least one day last week
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9515923/F...
Some good graphs in there.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9515923/F...
Some good graphs in there.
RSTurboPaul said:
Flu and pneumonia are now killing almost as many people as Covid as official fatality figures show four regions suffered NO deaths on at least one day last week
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9515923/F...
Some good graphs in there.
Being the Daily Mail, do they show the value of the house that the coronavirus was living in? https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9515923/F...
Some good graphs in there.
Quick update on the numbers:
1. Cases and Testing. Cases still falling, but they have not returned to the 18 day doubling line. Testing has fallen from 1.8 million per day just before schools opened to a 1 million per day recent peak. That suggests to me that kids are getting bored of the surveillance testing and that the general public have not taken kindly to the 2 tests per week idea.
2. Cases Per 100k Tests. Still halving every 18 days, but the case fatality rate has fallen more quickly. From around 3% in late Jan to less than 0.5% in the second half of April.
3. Key Metrics Overlaid. This suggests to me that we are near the bottom. 54 deaths in the last week. Just over 7 per day on average. However, there is a slight note of caution on admissions which have stopped falling.
1. Cases and Testing. Cases still falling, but they have not returned to the 18 day doubling line. Testing has fallen from 1.8 million per day just before schools opened to a 1 million per day recent peak. That suggests to me that kids are getting bored of the surveillance testing and that the general public have not taken kindly to the 2 tests per week idea.
2. Cases Per 100k Tests. Still halving every 18 days, but the case fatality rate has fallen more quickly. From around 3% in late Jan to less than 0.5% in the second half of April.
3. Key Metrics Overlaid. This suggests to me that we are near the bottom. 54 deaths in the last week. Just over 7 per day on average. However, there is a slight note of caution on admissions which have stopped falling.
Elysium said:
2. Cases Per 100k Tests. Still halving every 18 days, but the case fatality rate has fallen more quickly. From around 3% in late Jan to less than 0.5% in the second half of April.
3. Key Metrics Overlaid. This suggests to me that we are near the bottom. 54 deaths in the last week. Just over 7 per day on average. However, there is a slight note of caution on admissions which have stopped falling.
2. - presumably the vaccine at work ensuring that those cases that are still out there are less severe / less fatal. Plus an NHS getting back to normal.3. Key Metrics Overlaid. This suggests to me that we are near the bottom. 54 deaths in the last week. Just over 7 per day on average. However, there is a slight note of caution on admissions which have stopped falling.
3. - Possibly an over-diagnosis? People otherwise terminally ill either getting Covid which finishes them off, or being assumed to have Covid as the symptoms look similar?
Considering that most people show few to no symptoms, how can they be sure that the vaccine actually does anything? The vaccine supposedly reduces symptoms, but if the majority of the test group would have had a sniffle at worst without the vaccine, how can they prove the efficacy of it?
Chile had vaccinated most of their country but is now seeing a few deaths again.
Chile had vaccinated most of their country but is now seeing a few deaths again.
BabySharkDooDooDooDooDooDoo said:
Considering that most people show few to no symptoms, how can they be sure that the vaccine actually does anything? The vaccine supposedly reduces symptoms, but if the majority of the test group would have had a sniffle at worst without the vaccine, how can they prove the efficacy of it?
Chile had vaccinated most of their country but is now seeing a few deaths again.
BMJ view:Chile had vaccinated most of their country but is now seeing a few deaths again.
https://www.bmj.com/content/373/bmj.n1023
vaud said:
BabySharkDooDooDooDooDooDoo said:
Considering that most people show few to no symptoms, how can they be sure that the vaccine actually does anything? The vaccine supposedly reduces symptoms, but if the majority of the test group would have had a sniffle at worst without the vaccine, how can they prove the efficacy of it?
Chile had vaccinated most of their country but is now seeing a few deaths again.
BMJ view:Chile had vaccinated most of their country but is now seeing a few deaths again.
https://www.bmj.com/content/373/bmj.n1023
So could be that the Chinese vaccine is useless
vaud said:
BabySharkDooDooDooDooDooDoo said:
Considering that most people show few to no symptoms, how can they be sure that the vaccine actually does anything? The vaccine supposedly reduces symptoms, but if the majority of the test group would have had a sniffle at worst without the vaccine, how can they prove the efficacy of it?
Chile had vaccinated most of their country but is now seeing a few deaths again.
BMJ view:Chile had vaccinated most of their country but is now seeing a few deaths again.
https://www.bmj.com/content/373/bmj.n1023
havoc said:
Elysium said:
2. Cases Per 100k Tests. Still halving every 18 days, but the case fatality rate has fallen more quickly. From around 3% in late Jan to less than 0.5% in the second half of April.
3. Key Metrics Overlaid. This suggests to me that we are near the bottom. 54 deaths in the last week. Just over 7 per day on average. However, there is a slight note of caution on admissions which have stopped falling.
2. - presumably the vaccine at work ensuring that those cases that are still out there are less severe / less fatal. Plus an NHS getting back to normal.3. Key Metrics Overlaid. This suggests to me that we are near the bottom. 54 deaths in the last week. Just over 7 per day on average. However, there is a slight note of caution on admissions which have stopped falling.
3. - Possibly an over-diagnosis? People otherwise terminally ill either getting Covid which finishes them off, or being assumed to have Covid as the symptoms look similar?
I wonder if admissions stalling suggests we have a baseline of hospital aquired infections. Difficult to know for sure as the data from the NHS is quite unclear.
Elysium said:
ONS deaths update published today:
1. Week 16 was the 8th consecutive week with deaths at or below the 5 year average:
2. There were 176 deaths 'due to COVID' in week 16. This is 1.7% of all deaths compared to the week 4 peak when COVID accounted for 41.25% of all deaths.
2 months straight of < average deaths (total deaths). I really do wonder how much time they need to figure out we're not in danger anymore.1. Week 16 was the 8th consecutive week with deaths at or below the 5 year average:
2. There were 176 deaths 'due to COVID' in week 16. This is 1.7% of all deaths compared to the week 4 peak when COVID accounted for 41.25% of all deaths.
I'm willing to bet very few people are aware of these two points.
BabySharkDooDooDooDooDooDoo said:
vaud said:
BabySharkDooDooDooDooDooDoo said:
Considering that most people show few to no symptoms, how can they be sure that the vaccine actually does anything? The vaccine supposedly reduces symptoms, but if the majority of the test group would have had a sniffle at worst without the vaccine, how can they prove the efficacy of it?
Chile had vaccinated most of their country but is now seeing a few deaths again.
BMJ view:Chile had vaccinated most of their country but is now seeing a few deaths again.
https://www.bmj.com/content/373/bmj.n1023
So could be that the Chinese vaccine is useless
Elysium said:
Thanks. I'm glad its of use. It keeps me sane to dig into the numbers and try to understand what is going on.
I'm not sure how digging into the numbers keeps you sane? I've had to step back from reviewing the numbers in detail as what the numbers say and what we are doing are so disconnected that it angers me that we are still under harsh restrictionsAshfordian said:
Elysium said:
Thanks. I'm glad its of use. It keeps me sane to dig into the numbers and try to understand what is going on.
I'm not sure how digging into the numbers keeps you sane? I've had to step back from reviewing the numbers in detail as what the numbers say and what we are doing are so disconnected that it angers me that we are still under harsh restrictionsjock mcsporran said:
I’ve wondered about this as places like Chile, UAE and others using predominantly Chinese vaccines haven’t really seen drops in cases like you would expect given the size of their rollout.
Less effective as a vaccine, requires 2nd dose (and then the gap for it to become effective), opened up earlier, etc. Multiple factors I think.Otispunkmeyer said:
Elysium said:
ONS deaths update published today:
1. Week 16 was the 8th consecutive week with deaths at or below the 5 year average:
2. There were 176 deaths 'due to COVID' in week 16. This is 1.7% of all deaths compared to the week 4 peak when COVID accounted for 41.25% of all deaths.
2 months straight of < average deaths (total deaths). I really do wonder how much time they need to figure out we're not in danger anymore.1. Week 16 was the 8th consecutive week with deaths at or below the 5 year average:
2. There were 176 deaths 'due to COVID' in week 16. This is 1.7% of all deaths compared to the week 4 peak when COVID accounted for 41.25% of all deaths.
I'm willing to bet very few people are aware of these two points.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/transparencyandgove...
Over the last 20 years our deaths per 100000 weren't even high in 2020.
Boils my piss.
You have both seen the similar plateau last Summer, yes? And what happened after the Summer...
The differences now are:-
- High % of adults, including (hopefully) all vulnerable adults having received 1 vaccine* if not 2.
- Going INTO the Summer, not coming out of it, which should (!) lead to higher UV levels and higher levels of outdoor activity**.
- Increased ennui with the whole s
t-show, leading to reduced compliance with rules intended for common good.
- A government that is both enjoying the increased powers it's claimed for itself, and doesn't want to relax things too quickly and lead to yet another spike.
- The increasing evidence around the wider prevalence of Long Covid, however without clinical conclusions yet (including whether the vaccines will prevent it or not), which will be giving those in medicine pause for thought...the thought of a million-plus with an equivalent to ME has serious economic and social consequences in addition to the health ones.
...which is a roundabout way of saying that I don't think it's over yet. India is as big a basket-case as we've seen anywhere in the last 12 months, and it could very easily lead to mutations (which could of course go any which way - more or less contagious, more or less fatal, more or less controlled by existing vaccines). What's worse, the Indian leadership really don't seem to care...unlike the Chinese, who at least gave the appearance of taking it seriously.
Meanwhile you've got
- populations who are desparate for their lives to go back to (old) normal, so much so that they'll stick their heads in the sand, convince themselves the vaccine is a cure, and completely ignore the surrounding and potential future risks.
- an NHS that is still using Covid as an excuse for not providing a full original service in some areas, most notably the first-line early-warning service that is GPs, which WILL have consequences, and an NHS that is apparently mis-diagnosing more serious issues as Covid-19, because that's all they've been looking for for 12mths+.
* Note this is NOT a cure, and may not protect you against a new variant, despite what many people seem to think.
** I'm willing to bet NOT though...people just want to do all the indoor activities that have been prohibited for 12 months.
The differences now are:-
- High % of adults, including (hopefully) all vulnerable adults having received 1 vaccine* if not 2.
- Going INTO the Summer, not coming out of it, which should (!) lead to higher UV levels and higher levels of outdoor activity**.
- Increased ennui with the whole s
t-show, leading to reduced compliance with rules intended for common good.- A government that is both enjoying the increased powers it's claimed for itself, and doesn't want to relax things too quickly and lead to yet another spike.
- The increasing evidence around the wider prevalence of Long Covid, however without clinical conclusions yet (including whether the vaccines will prevent it or not), which will be giving those in medicine pause for thought...the thought of a million-plus with an equivalent to ME has serious economic and social consequences in addition to the health ones.
...which is a roundabout way of saying that I don't think it's over yet. India is as big a basket-case as we've seen anywhere in the last 12 months, and it could very easily lead to mutations (which could of course go any which way - more or less contagious, more or less fatal, more or less controlled by existing vaccines). What's worse, the Indian leadership really don't seem to care...unlike the Chinese, who at least gave the appearance of taking it seriously.
Meanwhile you've got
- populations who are desparate for their lives to go back to (old) normal, so much so that they'll stick their heads in the sand, convince themselves the vaccine is a cure, and completely ignore the surrounding and potential future risks.
- an NHS that is still using Covid as an excuse for not providing a full original service in some areas, most notably the first-line early-warning service that is GPs, which WILL have consequences, and an NHS that is apparently mis-diagnosing more serious issues as Covid-19, because that's all they've been looking for for 12mths+.
* Note this is NOT a cure, and may not protect you against a new variant, despite what many people seem to think.
** I'm willing to bet NOT though...people just want to do all the indoor activities that have been prohibited for 12 months.
havoc said:
You have both seen the similar plateau last Summer, yes? And what happened after the Summer...
The differences now are:-
- High % of adults, including (hopefully) all vulnerable adults having received 1 vaccine* if not 2.
- Going INTO the Summer, not coming out of it, which should (!) lead to higher UV levels and higher levels of outdoor activity**.
- Increased ennui with the whole st-show, leading to reduced compliance with rules intended for common good.
- A government that is both enjoying the increased powers it's claimed for itself, and doesn't want to relax things too quickly and lead to yet another spike.
- The increasing evidence around the wider prevalence of Long Covid, however without clinical conclusions yet (including whether the vaccines will prevent it or not), which will be giving those in medicine pause for thought...the thought of a million-plus with an equivalent to ME has serious economic and social consequences in addition to the health ones.
...which is a roundabout way of saying that I don't think it's over yet. India is as big a basket-case as we've seen anywhere in the last 12 months, and it could very easily lead to mutations (which could of course go any which way - more or less contagious, more or less fatal, more or less controlled by existing vaccines). What's worse, the Indian leadership really don't seem to care...unlike the Chinese, who at least gave the appearance of taking it seriously.
Meanwhile you've got
- populations who are desparate for their lives to go back to (old) normal, so much so that they'll stick their heads in the sand, convince themselves the vaccine is a cure, and completely ignore the surrounding and potential future risks.
- an NHS that is still using Covid as an excuse for not providing a full original service in some areas, most notably the first-line early-warning service that is GPs, which WILL have consequences, and an NHS that is apparently mis-diagnosing more serious issues as Covid-19, because that's all they've been looking for for 12mths+.
* Note this is NOT a cure, and may not protect you against a new variant, despite what many people seem to think.
** I'm willing to bet NOT though...people just want to do all the indoor activities that have been prohibited for 12 months.
A well balanced post. A bit of a rarity on PHThe differences now are:-
- High % of adults, including (hopefully) all vulnerable adults having received 1 vaccine* if not 2.
- Going INTO the Summer, not coming out of it, which should (!) lead to higher UV levels and higher levels of outdoor activity**.
- Increased ennui with the whole s
t-show, leading to reduced compliance with rules intended for common good.- A government that is both enjoying the increased powers it's claimed for itself, and doesn't want to relax things too quickly and lead to yet another spike.
- The increasing evidence around the wider prevalence of Long Covid, however without clinical conclusions yet (including whether the vaccines will prevent it or not), which will be giving those in medicine pause for thought...the thought of a million-plus with an equivalent to ME has serious economic and social consequences in addition to the health ones.
...which is a roundabout way of saying that I don't think it's over yet. India is as big a basket-case as we've seen anywhere in the last 12 months, and it could very easily lead to mutations (which could of course go any which way - more or less contagious, more or less fatal, more or less controlled by existing vaccines). What's worse, the Indian leadership really don't seem to care...unlike the Chinese, who at least gave the appearance of taking it seriously.
Meanwhile you've got
- populations who are desparate for their lives to go back to (old) normal, so much so that they'll stick their heads in the sand, convince themselves the vaccine is a cure, and completely ignore the surrounding and potential future risks.
- an NHS that is still using Covid as an excuse for not providing a full original service in some areas, most notably the first-line early-warning service that is GPs, which WILL have consequences, and an NHS that is apparently mis-diagnosing more serious issues as Covid-19, because that's all they've been looking for for 12mths+.
* Note this is NOT a cure, and may not protect you against a new variant, despite what many people seem to think.
** I'm willing to bet NOT though...people just want to do all the indoor activities that have been prohibited for 12 months.
havoc said:
You have both seen the similar plateau last Summer, yes? And what happened after the Summer...
The differences now are:-
- High % of adults, including (hopefully) all vulnerable adults having received 1 vaccine* if not 2.
- Going INTO the Summer, not coming out of it, which should (!) lead to higher UV levels and higher levels of outdoor activity**.
- Increased ennui with the whole st-show, leading to reduced compliance with rules intended for common good.
- A government that is both enjoying the increased powers it's claimed for itself, and doesn't want to relax things too quickly and lead to yet another spike.
- The increasing evidence around the wider prevalence of Long Covid, however without clinical conclusions yet (including whether the vaccines will prevent it or not), which will be giving those in medicine pause for thought...the thought of a million-plus with an equivalent to ME has serious economic and social consequences in addition to the health ones.
...which is a roundabout way of saying that I don't think it's over yet. India is as big a basket-case as we've seen anywhere in the last 12 months, and it could very easily lead to mutations (which could of course go any which way - more or less contagious, more or less fatal, more or less controlled by existing vaccines). What's worse, the Indian leadership really don't seem to care...unlike the Chinese, who at least gave the appearance of taking it seriously.
Meanwhile you've got
- populations who are desparate for their lives to go back to (old) normal, so much so that they'll stick their heads in the sand, convince themselves the vaccine is a cure, and completely ignore the surrounding and potential future risks.
- an NHS that is still using Covid as an excuse for not providing a full original service in some areas, most notably the first-line early-warning service that is GPs, which WILL have consequences, and an NHS that is apparently mis-diagnosing more serious issues as Covid-19, because that's all they've been looking for for 12mths+.
* Note this is NOT a cure, and may not protect you against a new variant, despite what many people seem to think.
** I'm willing to bet NOT though...people just want to do all the indoor activities that have been prohibited for 12 months.
Agreed. With variants, relaxation and until we get to 90%(?) immunisation we are going to see a 3rd wave.The differences now are:-
- High % of adults, including (hopefully) all vulnerable adults having received 1 vaccine* if not 2.
- Going INTO the Summer, not coming out of it, which should (!) lead to higher UV levels and higher levels of outdoor activity**.
- Increased ennui with the whole s
t-show, leading to reduced compliance with rules intended for common good.- A government that is both enjoying the increased powers it's claimed for itself, and doesn't want to relax things too quickly and lead to yet another spike.
- The increasing evidence around the wider prevalence of Long Covid, however without clinical conclusions yet (including whether the vaccines will prevent it or not), which will be giving those in medicine pause for thought...the thought of a million-plus with an equivalent to ME has serious economic and social consequences in addition to the health ones.
...which is a roundabout way of saying that I don't think it's over yet. India is as big a basket-case as we've seen anywhere in the last 12 months, and it could very easily lead to mutations (which could of course go any which way - more or less contagious, more or less fatal, more or less controlled by existing vaccines). What's worse, the Indian leadership really don't seem to care...unlike the Chinese, who at least gave the appearance of taking it seriously.
Meanwhile you've got
- populations who are desparate for their lives to go back to (old) normal, so much so that they'll stick their heads in the sand, convince themselves the vaccine is a cure, and completely ignore the surrounding and potential future risks.
- an NHS that is still using Covid as an excuse for not providing a full original service in some areas, most notably the first-line early-warning service that is GPs, which WILL have consequences, and an NHS that is apparently mis-diagnosing more serious issues as Covid-19, because that's all they've been looking for for 12mths+.
* Note this is NOT a cure, and may not protect you against a new variant, despite what many people seem to think.
** I'm willing to bet NOT though...people just want to do all the indoor activities that have been prohibited for 12 months.
Now that 3rd wave won't have the same mortality rate, but it will place an increased demand on the health service and increase the sickness rate for the 18-30 group.
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