Coronavirus - Data Analysis Thread
Discussion
vaud said:
Agreed. With variants, relaxation and until we get to 90%(?) immunisation we are going to see a 3rd wave.
Now that 3rd wave won't have the same mortality rate, but it will place an increased demand on the health service and increase the sickness rate for the 18-30 group.
Most people are still not fully aware of the extent to which COVID outcomes are driven by age. Now that 3rd wave won't have the same mortality rate, but it will place an increased demand on the health service and increase the sickness rate for the 18-30 group.
This shows case fatality rates for differing age groups:
An unvaccinated 80 year old is 2,000 times more likely to die than an unvaccinated 20 year old. Fully vaccinated the 80 year old is still 200 times more likely to die than the unvaccinated 20 year old.
This gets quite interesting at the current limit of vaccine roll out.
A fully vaccinated 55 year old ends up at about the same the risk as an unvaccinated 35 year old.
If there is a third wave, which will depend on the efficacy of the vaccines, it will mostly affect older vaccinated people. Their risk will still be orders of magnitude greater than that of the under 30s
Elysium said:
Most people are still not fully aware of the extent to which COVID outcomes are driven by age.
This shows case fatality rates for differing age groups:
An unvaccinated 80 year old is 2,000 times more likely to die than an unvaccinated 20 year old. Fully vaccinated the 80 year old is still 200 times more likely to die than the unvaccinated 20 year old.
This gets quite interesting at the current limit of vaccine roll out.
A fully vaccinated 55 year old ends up at about the same the risk as an unvaccinated 35 year old.
If there is a third wave, which will depend on the efficacy of the vaccines, it will mostly affect older vaccinated people. Their risk will still be orders of magnitude greater than that of the under 30s
That's true for fatalities. Do you have the data to compare hospital admissions.This shows case fatality rates for differing age groups:
An unvaccinated 80 year old is 2,000 times more likely to die than an unvaccinated 20 year old. Fully vaccinated the 80 year old is still 200 times more likely to die than the unvaccinated 20 year old.
This gets quite interesting at the current limit of vaccine roll out.
A fully vaccinated 55 year old ends up at about the same the risk as an unvaccinated 35 year old.
If there is a third wave, which will depend on the efficacy of the vaccines, it will mostly affect older vaccinated people. Their risk will still be orders of magnitude greater than that of the under 30s
spikeyhead said:
Elysium said:
Most people are still not fully aware of the extent to which COVID outcomes are driven by age.
This shows case fatality rates for differing age groups:
An unvaccinated 80 year old is 2,000 times more likely to die than an unvaccinated 20 year old. Fully vaccinated the 80 year old is still 200 times more likely to die than the unvaccinated 20 year old.
This gets quite interesting at the current limit of vaccine roll out.
A fully vaccinated 55 year old ends up at about the same the risk as an unvaccinated 35 year old.
If there is a third wave, which will depend on the efficacy of the vaccines, it will mostly affect older vaccinated people. Their risk will still be orders of magnitude greater than that of the under 30s
That's true for fatalities. Do you have the data to compare hospital admissions.This shows case fatality rates for differing age groups:
An unvaccinated 80 year old is 2,000 times more likely to die than an unvaccinated 20 year old. Fully vaccinated the 80 year old is still 200 times more likely to die than the unvaccinated 20 year old.
This gets quite interesting at the current limit of vaccine roll out.
A fully vaccinated 55 year old ends up at about the same the risk as an unvaccinated 35 year old.
If there is a third wave, which will depend on the efficacy of the vaccines, it will mostly affect older vaccinated people. Their risk will still be orders of magnitude greater than that of the under 30s
Under 40s are half the population, but less than 10% of admissions. That would level out in a third wave, but it’s still likely that most admissions will be older vaccinated people.
I think seasonality is strong enough to delay that until winter and hope the vaccines are good enough to avoid it altogether.
Striking how much more men are at risk than women.
Elysium said:
This is for ICU, which is where the biggest pinch point is.
Under 40s are half the population, but less than 10% of admissions. That would level out in a third wave, but it’s still likely that most admissions will be older vaccinated people.
I think seasonality is strong enough to delay that until winter and hope the vaccines are good enough to avoid it altogether.
Striking how much more men are at risk than women.
And yet:Under 40s are half the population, but less than 10% of admissions. That would level out in a third wave, but it’s still likely that most admissions will be older vaccinated people.
I think seasonality is strong enough to delay that until winter and hope the vaccines are good enough to avoid it altogether.
Striking how much more men are at risk than women.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/08/uk-g...
spikeyhead said:
That's true for fatalities. Do you have the data to compare hospital admissions.
Or Long Covid.I think most on this thread would agree that, once vaccinated, we're statistically very unlikely to get more than flu-ish response if we did catch it.
...but I don't think there are any stats out there on whether Long Covid could be an issue for those who catch Covid post-vaccine. You'd EXPECT it to follow a similar trend and tail right off...but that doesn't always follow. One of the key front-runners for a Long Covid cause is an adverse auto-immune response*, and they don't always behave how you expect. I've also heard from 2 different sources (one medical in the relevant department treating the a-i condition I've got) that "the vaccine" (no idea whether one or more than one) has led to reactions in numerous patients attending the relevant a-i clinic, including me.
* I'll declare a vested interest here - I have two minor auto-immune conditions so my body has already shown its ability to be a turncoat.
Edited by havoc on Sunday 9th May 22:29
havoc said:
spikeyhead said:
That's true for fatalities. Do you have the data to compare hospital admissions.
Or Long Covid.I think most on this thread would agree that, once vaccinated, we're statistically very unlikely to get more than flu-ish response if we did catch it.
...but I don't think there are any stats out there on Long Covid post-vaccine. You'd EXPECT it to follow a similar trend and tail right off...but that doesn't always follow. One of the key front-runners for a Long Covid cause is an adverse auto-immune response*, and they don't always behave how you expect. I've also heard from 2 different sources (one medical in the relevant department treating the a-i condition I've got) that "the vaccine" (no idea whether one or more than one) has led to reactions in numerous patients attending the relevant a-i clinic, including me.
* I'll declare a vested interest here - I have two minor auto-immune conditions so my body has already shown its ability to be a turncoat.
I think I'll take my chances with Covid, which seems more of a known quantity in terms of what happens, rather than risk the vaccine, which has such a vast array of adverse reactions reported as to be almost unbelievable! lol
And in the spirit of the thread title, hopefully we might have some conclusive data on 'LongCovid' at some point, rather than the constant fearmongering conjecture we've seen so far in the
stitched said:
Looking longer range it is even worse.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/transparencyandgove...
Over the last 20 years our deaths per 100000 weren't even high in 2020.
Boils my piss.
Why stop at 20yrs?https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/transparencyandgove...
Over the last 20 years our deaths per 100000 weren't even high in 2020.
Boils my piss.
I'm sure if you went back 200yrs we'd be having a walk in the park now
RSTurboPaul said:
So get vaccinated 'because LongCovid' but don't get vaccinated because it might **** you up?
Not what I meant at all...have just re-written my post to avoid mis-interpretation.- I was trying to point out there are more consequences to this than just a binary "die / don't die", yet all the stats are focusing on that one point - Long Covid has had very little coverage in the mainstream press until the last week or so, despite best estimates from before then implying over 1m people in the UK either have it or HAVE had it (& recovered)
- I was also trying to point out that the vaccine (and AZ is I believe a neutered form of the virus) appears (too little evidence to be 100% certain) to be triggering auto-immune responses in those with a-i conditions...which could be a corollary to the identified potential that Long Covid is an auto-immune response in the body.
I've had the vaccine. I don't regret it. I'll be taking the second. I'll just have to live with the consequences.
havoc said:
RSTurboPaul said:
So get vaccinated 'because LongCovid' but don't get vaccinated because it might **** you up?
Not what I meant at all...have just re-written my post to avoid mis-interpretation.- I was trying to point out there are more consequences to this than just a binary "die / don't die", yet all the stats are focusing on that one point - Long Covid has had very little coverage in the mainstream press until the last week or so, despite best estimates from before then implying over 1m people in the UK either have it or HAVE had it (& recovered)
- I was also trying to point out that the vaccine (and AZ is I believe a neutered form of the virus) appears (too little evidence to be 100% certain) to be triggering auto-immune responses in those with a-i conditions...which could be a corollary to the identified potential that Long Covid is an auto-immune response in the body.
I've had the vaccine. I don't regret it. I'll be taking the second. I'll just have to live with the consequences.
The Press / media have been on an absolute mission to fearmonger their way to higher clicks (and/or follow the Govt diktat they receive behind closed doors... /TinFoil) and have run several articles about marathon runners now unable to walk up stairs (for example).
If one million people have had, or still have, 'LongCovid', they would be all over it like the proverbial rash.
The fact they aren't just seems to suggest that it's not really that much of an issue.
I'm sure it is an issue for those who get it, of course, but I recall reading that by 12 weeks the vast majority are back on form again - so 'LongCovid' past that point must be a very rare event. The lack of analysis and comparison to other post-viral fatigue events is just one more thing that has not been done (properly or at all) to understand Covid (see also: actual hard evidence of how it spreads / asymptomatic transmission / effectiveness of mask wearing in a real world environment / effectiveness of Vitamin D / effectiveness of Ivermectin / etc.) which I find most odd, given that it is apparently the end of the world such that we must vaccinate eight billion people with a novel, still-in-the-trials-phase mRNA treatment and install an inescapable Digital ID system with a guilty-until-proven-innocent basis.
Edited by RSTurboPaul on Monday 10th May 00:21
vaud said:
Agreed. With variants, relaxation and until we get to 90%(?) immunisation we are going to see a 3rd wave.
Now that 3rd wave won't have the same mortality rate, but it will place an increased demand on the health service and increase the sickness rate for the 18-30 group.
This is where statistics makes you laugh, increased %age of the total yes although numbers of infected will not change Now that 3rd wave won't have the same mortality rate, but it will place an increased demand on the health service and increase the sickness rate for the 18-30 group.
this is infections to date by age group (latest I can find):
TX.
Terminator X said:
This is where statistics makes you laugh, increased %age of the total yes although numbers of infected will not change this is infections to date by age group (latest I can find):
Thanks. So a third wave is more likely to impact the younger demographic (while unvaccinated) and as restrictions are eased then the impact will be mild illness and loss of workforce productivity rather than severe impact to the health service. this is infections to date by age group (latest I can find):I'm not saying a 3rd wave would be as bad as the first 2, I'm just curious about the modelling for the number of people who will be infected while vaccination is still rolling out - accepting that the vast majority will be ok (as with flu, etc)
vaud said:
Terminator X said:
This is where statistics makes you laugh, increased %age of the total yes although numbers of infected will not change this is infections to date by age group (latest I can find):
Thanks. So a third wave is more likely to impact the younger demographic (while unvaccinated) and as restrictions are eased then the impact will be mild illness and loss of workforce productivity rather than severe impact to the health service. this is infections to date by age group (latest I can find):I'm not saying a 3rd wave would be as bad as the first 2, I'm just curious about the modelling for the number of people who will be infected while vaccination is still rolling out - accepting that the vast majority will be ok (as with flu, etc)
Update on todays data:
1. Cases and Tests. Some commentators are suggesting that cases have levelled off or slightly risen. I don't see that when you look by specimen date:
2. Cases per 100k tests are still following the 18 day halving line showing a steady decline since New Year. More interestingly the Case Fatality Rate which compares current deaths to cases 14 days ago is continuing to fall:
3. Metrics overlaid. I am not sure we can get these curves any flatter:
1. Cases and Tests. Some commentators are suggesting that cases have levelled off or slightly risen. I don't see that when you look by specimen date:
2. Cases per 100k tests are still following the 18 day halving line showing a steady decline since New Year. More interestingly the Case Fatality Rate which compares current deaths to cases 14 days ago is continuing to fall:
3. Metrics overlaid. I am not sure we can get these curves any flatter:
vaud said:
Terminator X said:
This is where statistics makes you laugh, increased %age of the total yes although numbers of infected will not change this is infections to date by age group (latest I can find):
Thanks. So a third wave is more likely to impact the younger demographic (while unvaccinated) and as restrictions are eased then the impact will be mild illness and loss of workforce productivity rather than severe impact to the health service. this is infections to date by age group (latest I can find):I'm not saying a 3rd wave would be as bad as the first 2, I'm just curious about the modelling for the number of people who will be infected while vaccination is still rolling out - accepting that the vast majority will be ok (as with flu, etc)
This compares ONS COVID deaths as of 9th April with projected deaths for an exit wave that is twice as large as waves 1 and 2 combined. I have assumed certain levels of vaccine efficacy by age group, with zero vaccine impact for the under 30's.
You can see that deaths continue to occur in the older group, despite higher vaccine protection, which reflects the reality that the fatality rate dramatically increases with age:
vaud said:
I was explicitly not referring to deaths but lost productivity due to people being "off sick" but not dying. So an increase in workload at the GP level and reduced number of people able to work due to voluntary isolation due to mild symptoms.
Apologies. I see what you mean now on reading back your post. You are exactly right. Young people will get sick, but not die. Being young is better than being vaccinated when it comes to protection from serious illness due to COVID
It will be interesting to see what happens by late-June / early-July. (From memory, 6-8 weeks was the 'spreading' lead-time to see a proper uptick in cases, admissions and subsequent fatalities the last two times they relaxed away from lockdown...might conceivably be a little longer this time given the near-zero baseline we're at now)
...if by then we're still not seeing much in the way of hospital cases or Long Covid, then we can call the vaccine programme a proper success*.
...but what will be equally interesting is what happens with all the powers, laws and restrictions that have been summarily put through over the last 12 months.
* The next step of course will be determining vaccine longevity, which sadly will require empirical data. And who will they then re-vaccinate e.g. this winter??? Another 30m people?!?
...if by then we're still not seeing much in the way of hospital cases or Long Covid, then we can call the vaccine programme a proper success*.
...but what will be equally interesting is what happens with all the powers, laws and restrictions that have been summarily put through over the last 12 months.
* The next step of course will be determining vaccine longevity, which sadly will require empirical data. And who will they then re-vaccinate e.g. this winter??? Another 30m people?!?
Gassing Station | News, Politics & Economics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff