Coronavirus - Data Analysis Thread
Discussion
CarCrazyDad said:
rover 623gsi said:
This a cool site - includes an element of estimated figures but still gives a good, simple overview of vaccination progress across the world
https://covidvax.live/
Very interestinghttps://covidvax.live/
https://covidvax.live/location/gbr
So it appears we have 60% of the population vaccinated. (40m)
Plus we have 4.5 million "confirmed cases".
So 45 million people have either got natural immunity or the vaccination.
What point does "herd immunity" take into account?
I assume a percentage of people also do not get impacted by the virus so there's probably another 5 million who don't become infected anyway? So 50million people are safe.
simoid said:
ruggedscotty said:
https://www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavir...
https://www.travellingtabby.com/uk-coronavirus-tra...
found these.... wonder if they are useful
Love them - lots of different ways of displaying the info.https://www.travellingtabby.com/uk-coronavirus-tra...
found these.... wonder if they are useful
A question - Scotland’s health Secretary said today that 10 kids under the age of 10 were hospitalised in the last week because of covid. Is he talking s
te? Seems there were around that number admitted to hospital last week but it would be peculiar if, for example, none of them were in for a different ailment and happened to test positive, as the vast vast majority of kids are asymptotic.https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/news/scottish-new...
https://thumbsnap.com/f/NGDxDHvn
spikeyhead said:
The answer is "it depends."
If very few of us spend time with others then the answer is "not many."
If we all spend three two hour sessions in a small room with 50 other people each day, all singing loudly, and they're different people for each singing session, then the answer becomes "almost everyone."
In practice our behaviours are somewhere between the two extremes given above. I've repeatedly said that there is no bigger folly than trying to model human behaviour.
What's also true is that if you vaccinate 85% of the population then you've almost certainly done enough, but if you don't jab any of those that go clubbing and to gigs, and if they all live with their grandparents, who have been jabbed, but the jabs don't have perfect efficacy, then there's a chance of cases rising amongst the young and causing problems for the old, and whilst it generally won't kill the youngsters, a few will end up with significant suffering with it.
I suspect that's not the answer you were looking for, but it's as precise as anything that can reasonably be given. We're in a decent place and so long as take up is reasonable amongst the last group to be jabbed then that should be the end of it.
Thank you for your response.If very few of us spend time with others then the answer is "not many."
If we all spend three two hour sessions in a small room with 50 other people each day, all singing loudly, and they're different people for each singing session, then the answer becomes "almost everyone."
In practice our behaviours are somewhere between the two extremes given above. I've repeatedly said that there is no bigger folly than trying to model human behaviour.
What's also true is that if you vaccinate 85% of the population then you've almost certainly done enough, but if you don't jab any of those that go clubbing and to gigs, and if they all live with their grandparents, who have been jabbed, but the jabs don't have perfect efficacy, then there's a chance of cases rising amongst the young and causing problems for the old, and whilst it generally won't kill the youngsters, a few will end up with significant suffering with it.
I suspect that's not the answer you were looking for, but it's as precise as anything that can reasonably be given. We're in a decent place and so long as take up is reasonable amongst the last group to be jabbed then that should be the end of it.
I would suspect from the data (and I hope so for myself) that the jab is reasonably protecting even if someone else doesn't have the jab. My understanding is that the jab doesn't stop you transmitting the virus.
I must say for my own Son , I would hope he doesn't take the vaccine, I've read that apparently there are some potential side effects / risks compared to Covid which are a concern until you are Mid 40s (he is in his late 20s). Although I haven't and won't be saying anything about his decisions on the matter.
I personally think that at the 60% of the population vaccinated so far in total (I guess that's a significant majority of people over 50) so they should be fine in terms of a resurgence, with pre-existing infection and some natural immunity we must already be at 85% of people who are either "IMMUNE, VACCINATED OR PREVIOUSLY INFECTED".
I don't personally believe we should be vaccinating "everyone" with these jabs for the "greater good" so to speak and I absolutely draw the line at children in my book.
Bring back singing in a crowded room with 50 people!
I miss very much going to a pub for a few beers and watching the Boxing or Football, cheering along with everyone else. Although I guess that is a topic for another thread
Scotty2 said:
simoid said:
ruggedscotty said:
https://www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavir...
https://www.travellingtabby.com/uk-coronavirus-tra...
found these.... wonder if they are useful
Love them - lots of different ways of displaying the info.https://www.travellingtabby.com/uk-coronavirus-tra...
found these.... wonder if they are useful
A question - Scotland’s health Secretary said today that 10 kids under the age of 10 were hospitalised in the last week because of covid. Is he talking s
te? Seems there were around that number admitted to hospital last week but it would be peculiar if, for example, none of them were in for a different ailment and happened to test positive, as the vast vast majority of kids are asymptotic.https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/news/scottish-new...
https://thumbsnap.com/f/NGDxDHvn
CarCrazyDad said:
spikeyhead said:
The answer is "it depends."
If very few of us spend time with others then the answer is "not many."
If we all spend three two hour sessions in a small room with 50 other people each day, all singing loudly, and they're different people for each singing session, then the answer becomes "almost everyone."
In practice our behaviours are somewhere between the two extremes given above. I've repeatedly said that there is no bigger folly than trying to model human behaviour.
What's also true is that if you vaccinate 85% of the population then you've almost certainly done enough, but if you don't jab any of those that go clubbing and to gigs, and if they all live with their grandparents, who have been jabbed, but the jabs don't have perfect efficacy, then there's a chance of cases rising amongst the young and causing problems for the old, and whilst it generally won't kill the youngsters, a few will end up with significant suffering with it.
I suspect that's not the answer you were looking for, but it's as precise as anything that can reasonably be given. We're in a decent place and so long as take up is reasonable amongst the last group to be jabbed then that should be the end of it.
Thank you for your response.If very few of us spend time with others then the answer is "not many."
If we all spend three two hour sessions in a small room with 50 other people each day, all singing loudly, and they're different people for each singing session, then the answer becomes "almost everyone."
In practice our behaviours are somewhere between the two extremes given above. I've repeatedly said that there is no bigger folly than trying to model human behaviour.
What's also true is that if you vaccinate 85% of the population then you've almost certainly done enough, but if you don't jab any of those that go clubbing and to gigs, and if they all live with their grandparents, who have been jabbed, but the jabs don't have perfect efficacy, then there's a chance of cases rising amongst the young and causing problems for the old, and whilst it generally won't kill the youngsters, a few will end up with significant suffering with it.
I suspect that's not the answer you were looking for, but it's as precise as anything that can reasonably be given. We're in a decent place and so long as take up is reasonable amongst the last group to be jabbed then that should be the end of it.
I would suspect from the data (and I hope so for myself) that the jab is reasonably protecting even if someone else doesn't have the jab. My understanding is that the jab doesn't stop you transmitting the virus.
I must say for my own Son , I would hope he doesn't take the vaccine, I've read that apparently there are some potential side effects / risks compared to Covid which are a concern until you are Mid 40s (he is in his late 20s). Although I haven't and won't be saying anything about his decisions on the matter.
I personally think that at the 60% of the population vaccinated so far in total (I guess that's a significant majority of people over 50) so they should be fine in terms of a resurgence, with pre-existing infection and some natural immunity we must already be at 85% of people who are either "IMMUNE, VACCINATED OR PREVIOUSLY INFECTED".
I don't personally believe we should be vaccinating "everyone" with these jabs for the "greater good" so to speak and I absolutely draw the line at children in my book.
Bring back singing in a crowded room with 50 people!
I miss very much going to a pub for a few beers and watching the Boxing or Football, cheering along with everyone else. Although I guess that is a topic for another thread
Also agree with view on not vaccinating children, it might reduce overall infections rates but imo regardless if the science it's morally wrong to be vaccinating children when there are adults elsewhere at much greater risk. Elsewhere can be read to include anywhere in the world.
FiF said:
Thought this was interesting. Link
Essentially experiment Project S in Serrana town in Sao Paulo region. Split the town up into sections and progressively vaccinated the whole town using the Chinese developed Coronavac.
Essentially experiment Project S in Serrana town in Sao Paulo region. Split the town up into sections and progressively vaccinated the whole town using the Chinese developed Coronavac.
BBC said:
The city was divided into four areas to help determine the threshold for containing the virus. The team said this was achieved after three areas, or about 75% of the population over the age of 18, had been given both doses.
When 95% of adults were fully vaccinated, they said the results showed that:
Deaths fell by 95%Hospitalisations fell by 86%Symptomatic cases fell by 80%
Ricardo Palacios, research director at Butantan, said the key figure was the 75%.
"The most important result is that we can control the pandemic without having to vaccinate the whole population," he said.
Mr Palacios also said there was a decline in the number of cases among children and teenagers, who had not been vaccinated. This could indicate that there was no need to vaccinate children for schools to reopen, he said.
When 95% of adults were fully vaccinated, they said the results showed that:
Deaths fell by 95%Hospitalisations fell by 86%Symptomatic cases fell by 80%
Ricardo Palacios, research director at Butantan, said the key figure was the 75%.
"The most important result is that we can control the pandemic without having to vaccinate the whole population," he said.
Mr Palacios also said there was a decline in the number of cases among children and teenagers, who had not been vaccinated. This could indicate that there was no need to vaccinate children for schools to reopen, he said.
the-photographer said:
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/governmen...
x2.5 more?
Edited by the-photographer on Friday 4th June 07:48
Edited by the-photographer on Friday 4th June 07:51
TX.
Terminator X said:
the-photographer said:
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/governmen...
x2.5 more?
Edited by the-photographer on Friday 4th June 07:48
Edited by the-photographer on Friday 4th June 07:51
TX.
The answer is "it depends."
If very few of us spend time with others then the answer is "not many."
If we all spend three two hour sessions in a small room with 50 other people each day, all singing loudly, and they're different people for each singing session, then the answer becomes "almost everyone."
In practice our behaviours are somewhere between the two extremes given above. I've repeatedly said that there is no bigger folly than trying to model human behaviour.
What's also true is that if you vaccinate 85% of the population then you've almost certainly done enough, but if you don't jab any of those that go clubbing and to gigs, and if they all live with their grandparents, who have been jabbed, but the jabs don't have perfect efficacy, then there's a chance of cases rising amongst the young and causing problems for the old, and whilst it generally won't kill the youngsters, a few will end up with significant suffering with it.
I suspect that's not the answer you were looking for, but it's as precise as anything that can reasonably be given. We're in a decent place and so long as take up is reasonable amongst the last group to be jabbed then that should be the end of it.
=================
It might be small impact or with "loads" of cases in population of 65million may mean a big impact because (1) efficacy (2) un-vaccinated (3) etc
Admissions are up, from a very low base and let's hope it stays that way.
I think we probably have enough data now to see the impact of the Step 3 'unlocking' on 17th May and the new Delta (Indian) variant.
1. Tests and Cases. Cases are definitely increasing. This is not being driven by overall testing volumes, but I think there is a shift to a greater proportion of PCR tests that I plan to look at in more detail. PCR has consistently higher positivity rates than LFD. The first graph shows a full year. The second focuses on the period from the 1st March 21. I have tried to do some curve fitting to figure out the growth rate, but its not easy. Ignoring the lag in the 7 day average the best I can come up with is 13 day doubling, which is faster than before:
2. The 13 day doubling still works for Cases per 100k tests. Admissions and deaths have clearly bottomed out and are slightly increasing:
3. This shows Cases per 100k Tests, admissions and deaths with a lag so the relationship between them becomes clear. So far the increase in cases has not driven a similar increase in admissions and deaths:
4. Finally, this graph shows 5 day growth rates for all three of the above metrics. I have added an average to approximate Rt. I think this is currently somewhere around 1.1-1.2
In summary, COVID prevalence is increasing again and I think we are in the start of the 'exit wave'. I think we might have got away with this without the Delta variant, which seems set to make it a bit worse. However, if Bolton is a forerunner then I am hopeful that this will stabilise rather than continue to grow exponentially.
1. Tests and Cases. Cases are definitely increasing. This is not being driven by overall testing volumes, but I think there is a shift to a greater proportion of PCR tests that I plan to look at in more detail. PCR has consistently higher positivity rates than LFD. The first graph shows a full year. The second focuses on the period from the 1st March 21. I have tried to do some curve fitting to figure out the growth rate, but its not easy. Ignoring the lag in the 7 day average the best I can come up with is 13 day doubling, which is faster than before:
2. The 13 day doubling still works for Cases per 100k tests. Admissions and deaths have clearly bottomed out and are slightly increasing:
3. This shows Cases per 100k Tests, admissions and deaths with a lag so the relationship between them becomes clear. So far the increase in cases has not driven a similar increase in admissions and deaths:
4. Finally, this graph shows 5 day growth rates for all three of the above metrics. I have added an average to approximate Rt. I think this is currently somewhere around 1.1-1.2
In summary, COVID prevalence is increasing again and I think we are in the start of the 'exit wave'. I think we might have got away with this without the Delta variant, which seems set to make it a bit worse. However, if Bolton is a forerunner then I am hopeful that this will stabilise rather than continue to grow exponentially.
Elysium said:
4. Finally, this graph shows 5 day growth rates for all three of the above metrics. I have added an average to approximate Rt. I think this is currently somewhere around 1.1-1.2
Some simple sums to see how many more we need to jab to reduce R below 1.Assumptions, the jab takes three weeks to take effect and it's taken another week for the growth to show through. Let's go back about four weeks.
That those below 18 play no part in transmission.
That human behaviour doesn't change.
Date
10-05-2021 67.6% with one jab, so that leaves 32.3% unjabbed. If we wish to reduce R by 20% then we need to jab 20% of 32.3, which is another 6.46% of adults, which would take the total up to 74.1%
We hit that target on the 28-05-2021, with 74.2% so three weeks after that, about June 18th as the jab becomes effective then infection rates should fall, just about the time that we open up the rest of the economy.
Doesn't work like that.
- All children can be vectors for the virus (and indeed older ones often ARE, younger ones rarely so).
- Vaccination, even double-doses, aren't 100% effective at preventing infection, and indeed aren't 100% effective at preventing hospitalisation or death. They're a vaccine, not a cure.
Latest stats suggest the Pfizer and AZ vaccines are 60-70% effective against Strain-4 / Indian-variant (whatever it's called now)...but I've not seen a definition for whether that's preventing symtomatic contagion, preventing hospitalisation, or what?
So let's work on best-case and say they're 2/3 effective against symptomatic contagion. And all adults above 30* have had one dose at least. Then c.75% of the contagiable population have a vaccine which is 2/3 effective, so 50% of the population can't pass it on even if they do catch it. So that, ROUGHLY speaking, halves whatever the R-rate would be if no-one was vaccinated.
(...and significantly further reduces the burden on the NHS due to weaker average infections)
So if the R-rate is currently over 1, that means it IS still spreading and growing, but it's doing so at about half the rate (OK, a gross statistical simplification to keep it easy) it would if no-one had been vaccinated.
* Not true, but I'm trying to keep it simple. All of the above is very simplified to keep the numbers easy.
- All children can be vectors for the virus (and indeed older ones often ARE, younger ones rarely so).
- Vaccination, even double-doses, aren't 100% effective at preventing infection, and indeed aren't 100% effective at preventing hospitalisation or death. They're a vaccine, not a cure.
Latest stats suggest the Pfizer and AZ vaccines are 60-70% effective against Strain-4 / Indian-variant (whatever it's called now)...but I've not seen a definition for whether that's preventing symtomatic contagion, preventing hospitalisation, or what?
So let's work on best-case and say they're 2/3 effective against symptomatic contagion. And all adults above 30* have had one dose at least. Then c.75% of the contagiable population have a vaccine which is 2/3 effective, so 50% of the population can't pass it on even if they do catch it. So that, ROUGHLY speaking, halves whatever the R-rate would be if no-one was vaccinated.
(...and significantly further reduces the burden on the NHS due to weaker average infections)
So if the R-rate is currently over 1, that means it IS still spreading and growing, but it's doing so at about half the rate (OK, a gross statistical simplification to keep it easy) it would if no-one had been vaccinated.
* Not true, but I'm trying to keep it simple. All of the above is very simplified to keep the numbers easy.
Speaking of data, someone is using FOI requests in Council wards across the country to get burial/cremation numbers. They are then comparing with figures for deaths in the same areas. Guess what...massive delta between them with way more reported deaths than actual funerals. Where are the bodies?
jshell said:
My god, it's like the world cup of tin-foil-hatness!Gassing Station | News, Politics & Economics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff