Coronavirus - Data Analysis Thread
Discussion
Mr Whippy said:
RSTurboPaul said:
CarlosFandango11 said:
So, the correct answer is actually c) the Zoe Covid Symptom Survey's methodolody was wrong! They've updated their methodology yesterday and now have the following for vaccinated and unvaccinated cases:
Quite a big change.
Interesting.Quite a big change.
If one was a cynic, one would wonder if they were giving out 'the wrong answer' and someone 'had a word'... lol
Did they summarise the changes made?
Clearly unvaccinated are just taking a bit more care still, moderating their socialising and so on, and perhaps vaccinated are enjoying getting out.
What is the current expcted CFR for a 40 yr old?
This graphs splits out vaccinated into 1st and 2nd doses:
If you compare the new case numbers to their respective population numbers to get a rate, then the new cases on 17th roughly comprise of:
0.50% of the unvaccinated population
0.10% of the population with one dose
0.04% of the population with two doses
Equivalent figures for 1st July are very roughly:
0.23% of the unvaccinated population
0.05% of the population with one dose
0.02% of the population with two doses
Mr Whippy said:
In either case, it's surprising because the rates for vaccinated have proportionally caught up with unvaccinated quite significantly.
Clearly unvaccinated are just taking a bit more care still, moderating their socialising and so on, and perhaps vaccinated are enjoying getting out.
What is the current expcted CFR for a 40 yr old?
I think it is impossible to assert either way with confidence.Clearly unvaccinated are just taking a bit more care still, moderating their socialising and so on, and perhaps vaccinated are enjoying getting out.
What is the current expcted CFR for a 40 yr old?
What about the younger people (<50?) who don't watch the British Biased Corporation news and are just cracking on with life as normal?
What about those vaccinated who are petrified of catching it, still wearing masks and 'sanitising' their shopping trolley handles because the TV says Indonesia has seen a rise in cases?
What about the likely large and silent majority who went along with things at the start 'because unknown' but have gradually wondered what the point is when they see daily deaths in the low 10s and know cancer is killing more?
What about everyone who despite this 'world ending' virus have yet to know anyone who has died from it or really suffered with it, despite 16 months of fearmongering?
I and many other dirty unvaccinated lepers would be liiving life normally, like 2019, if we were allowed to.
CarlosFandango11 said:
Mr Whippy said:
RSTurboPaul said:
CarlosFandango11 said:
So, the correct answer is actually c) the Zoe Covid Symptom Survey's methodolody was wrong! They've updated their methodology yesterday and now have the following for vaccinated and unvaccinated cases:
Quite a big change.
Interesting.Quite a big change.
If one was a cynic, one would wonder if they were giving out 'the wrong answer' and someone 'had a word'... lol
Did they summarise the changes made?
Clearly unvaccinated are just taking a bit more care still, moderating their socialising and so on, and perhaps vaccinated are enjoying getting out.
What is the current expcted CFR for a 40 yr old?
This graphs splits out vaccinated into 1st and 2nd doses:
If you compare the new case numbers to their respective population numbers to get a rate, then the new cases on 17th roughly comprise of:
0.50% of the unvaccinated population
0.10% of the population with one dose
0.04% of the population with two doses
Equivalent figures for 1st July are very roughly:
0.23% of the unvaccinated population
0.05% of the population with one dose
0.02% of the population with two doses
I can't remember how that would compare to previous doubling rates that Elysium has calculated.
RSTurboPaul said:
Mr Whippy said:
In either case, it's surprising because the rates for vaccinated have proportionally caught up with unvaccinated quite significantly.
Clearly unvaccinated are just taking a bit more care still, moderating their socialising and so on, and perhaps vaccinated are enjoying getting out.
What is the current expcted CFR for a 40 yr old?
I think it is impossible to assert either way with confidence.Clearly unvaccinated are just taking a bit more care still, moderating their socialising and so on, and perhaps vaccinated are enjoying getting out.
What is the current expcted CFR for a 40 yr old?
What about the younger people (<50?) who don't watch the British Biased Corporation news and are just cracking on with life as normal?
What about those vaccinated who are petrified of catching it, still wearing masks and 'sanitising' their shopping trolley handles because the TV says Indonesia has seen a rise in cases?
What about the likely large and silent majority who went along with things at the start 'because unknown' but have gradually wondered what the point is when they see daily deaths in the low 10s and know cancer is killing more?
What about everyone who despite this 'world ending' virus have yet to know anyone who has died from it or really suffered with it, despite 16 months of fearmongering?
I and many other dirty unvaccinated lepers would be liiving life normally, like 2019, if we were allowed to.
Just curious what is going on because of the July 17th changes on rules.
I'm unvaccinated and throughout the pandemic, and even before it (from late Jan) was being a bit more careful.
It's amazing how we've suddenly turned from lockdowns and stuff to 'go wild' in one step... and that step will determine the efficiacy of the vaccines.
Yes it's the right time to test through summer. Yes a winter unwind would be more iffy in any case.
It's just a big gamble.
I see a lockdown again at this rate because the NHS will be swamped.
CarlosFandango11 said:
They were showing unvaccinated new cases decreasing by a lot since the start of July - perhaps someone challenged that, or perhaps they decided to review their methodology.
Changes made are here, plus a graph of their "before" and "after" new cases:
https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/covid-estimates-upd...
Thanks. The zoe app "sample" is of course self-selecting, and they've said the % of unvaccinated app users is significantly lower than the % of unvaccinated in the general population. I'd guess their unvaccinated sample size has got so low that the error margins became huge.Changes made are here, plus a graph of their "before" and "after" new cases:
https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/covid-estimates-upd...
RSTurboPaul said:
That looks like a 16-day doubling rate, then?
I can't remember how that would compare to previous doubling rates that Elysium has calculated.
The question is whether there will be another 'explosion' of cases in the real sense. We now know how this virus works, it bumbles along at a steady but slow increase for weeks or even months and then bang it takes off like a rocket. We will only know if the vaccine is doing its thing if we once again get that explosive growth or not. I would imagine that you could even pinpoint almost to the day that tipping point for the two previous waves and then project it onto the current wave to find the date it would be expected if you were a bit of a data nut... I can't remember how that would compare to previous doubling rates that Elysium has calculated.
Muncher said:
Assuming we do have 150,000 cases per day consistently, testing positive for 14 days, that's ~2.1M people at any point in time which is 3% of the population.
Based on the number of people who are admitted to hospital each day, on average you would expect 493 of those admitted to be "covid admissions" regardless of the reasons and around 48 of the deaths each day to be "covid deaths".
Exactly, this is the reasoning that most people don't understand (or don't want to understand)Based on the number of people who are admitted to hospital each day, on average you would expect 493 of those admitted to be "covid admissions" regardless of the reasons and around 48 of the deaths each day to be "covid deaths".
Steve vRS said:
I suspect a lot of it is the fact that almost all schools have broken up. So, lots of children with a slight cough and all their asymptotic buddies are not being tested and found to be positive. It really is the exemplification of if you look hard enough, you will find it.
It started to fall before the children broke uk.Muncher said:
Steve vRS said:
I suspect a lot of it is the fact that almost all schools have broken up. So, lots of children with a slight cough and all their asymptotic buddies are not being tested and found to be positive. It really is the exemplification of if you look hard enough, you will find it.
It started to fall before the children broke uk.Muncher said:
Steve vRS said:
I suspect a lot of it is the fact that almost all schools have broken up. So, lots of children with a slight cough and all their asymptotic buddies are not being tested and found to be positive. It really is the exemplification of if you look hard enough, you will find it.
It started to fall before the children broke uk.With thanks to J210 for posting the link in the 'cure is worse than the disease' thread originally 
J210 said:
Im sure this came up before and some said it was all a conspiracy:
Over half of Covid hospitalisations tested positive after admission
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/07/26/exclus...
Over half of Covid hospitalisations tested positive after admission
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/07/26/exclus...
Telegraph said:
The leaked data – covering all NHS trusts in England – show that, as of last Thursday, just 44 per cent of patients classed as being hospitalised with Covid had tested positive by the time they were admitted.
The majority of cases were not detected until patients underwent standard Covid tests, carried out on everyone admitted to hospital for any reason.
Overall, 56 per cent of Covid hospitalisations fell into this category, the data, seen by The Telegraph, show.
Crucially, this group does not distinguish between those admitted because of severe illness, later found to be caused by the virus, and those in hospital for different reasons who might otherwise never have known that they had picked it up.
...
The breakdown of daily Covid hospital diagnoses shows that of more than 780 hospitalisations dated last Thursday, 44 per cent involved people who tested positive in the 14 days before hospital entry.
A further 43 per cent were made within two days of admission, with 13 per cent made in the days and weeks that followed, including those likely to have caught the virus in hospital.
The majority of cases were not detected until patients underwent standard Covid tests, carried out on everyone admitted to hospital for any reason.
Overall, 56 per cent of Covid hospitalisations fell into this category, the data, seen by The Telegraph, show.
Crucially, this group does not distinguish between those admitted because of severe illness, later found to be caused by the virus, and those in hospital for different reasons who might otherwise never have known that they had picked it up.
...
The breakdown of daily Covid hospital diagnoses shows that of more than 780 hospitalisations dated last Thursday, 44 per cent involved people who tested positive in the 14 days before hospital entry.
A further 43 per cent were made within two days of admission, with 13 per cent made in the days and weeks that followed, including those likely to have caught the virus in hospital.
Edited by RSTurboPaul on Monday 26th July 23:04
Some interesting CDC figures here - small sample size but it appears to be showing that the jabbed (of all varieties - 1, 2, still not immune) are being hospitalised and dying at the same percentages as the unvaccinated:
https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1385214985...
https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1385214985...
RSTurboPaul said:
Some interesting CDC figures here - small sample size but it appears to be showing that the jabbed (of all varieties - 1, 2, still not immune) are being hospitalised and dying at the same percentages as the unvaccinated:
https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1385214985...
And you’re three times as likely to get symptoms if you’re double vaccinated compared to someone who is unvaccinated. https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1385214985...
Alternatively, the sample size is far too small to give meaningful results.
RSTurboPaul said:
With thanks to J210 for posting the link in the 'cure is worse than the disease' thread originally
I have said all along that I suspect Covid is mainly caught when "trapped" in a room with one or more persons that have Covid and for hours at a time^. It certainly isn't caught whilst walking past someone in the street masked or un-masked. Pretty much fJ210 said:
Im sure this came up before and some said it was all a conspiracy:
Over half of Covid hospitalisations tested positive after admission
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/07/26/exclus...
Over half of Covid hospitalisations tested positive after admission
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/07/26/exclus...
Telegraph said:
The leaked data – covering all NHS trusts in England – show that, as of last Thursday, just 44 per cent of patients classed as being hospitalised with Covid had tested positive by the time they were admitted.
The majority of cases were not detected until patients underwent standard Covid tests, carried out on everyone admitted to hospital for any reason.
Overall, 56 per cent of Covid hospitalisations fell into this category, the data, seen by The Telegraph, show.
Crucially, this group does not distinguish between those admitted because of severe illness, later found to be caused by the virus, and those in hospital for different reasons who might otherwise never have known that they had picked it up.
...
The breakdown of daily Covid hospital diagnoses shows that of more than 780 hospitalisations dated last Thursday, 44 per cent involved people who tested positive in the 14 days before hospital entry.
A further 43 per cent were made within two days of admission, with 13 per cent made in the days and weeks that followed, including those likely to have caught the virus in hospital.
The majority of cases were not detected until patients underwent standard Covid tests, carried out on everyone admitted to hospital for any reason.
Overall, 56 per cent of Covid hospitalisations fell into this category, the data, seen by The Telegraph, show.
Crucially, this group does not distinguish between those admitted because of severe illness, later found to be caused by the virus, and those in hospital for different reasons who might otherwise never have known that they had picked it up.
...
The breakdown of daily Covid hospital diagnoses shows that of more than 780 hospitalisations dated last Thursday, 44 per cent involved people who tested positive in the 14 days before hospital entry.
A further 43 per cent were made within two days of admission, with 13 per cent made in the days and weeks that followed, including those likely to have caught the virus in hospital.
Edited by RSTurboPaul on Monday 26th July 23:04
k all data released to say yay or nay though 
^Hospitals, care homes, schools, offices ...
TX.
It is possible that this is just a quirk of the imprecise language being used. Specifically that of those people admitted to hospital, they simply hadn't had a test prior to being admitted and hence the first test was done on being admitted, the result being 24 hours later. Their first positive test was in hospital, but they didn't actually catch it there. There needs to be clarity, to distinguish between those who already had the virus on entry to the hospital, and those who acquired it after admission.
Zad said:
It is possible that this is just a quirk of the imprecise language being used. Specifically that of those people admitted to hospital, they simply hadn't had a test prior to being admitted and hence the first test was done on being admitted, the result being 24 hours later. Their first positive test was in hospital, but they didn't actually catch it there. There needs to be clarity, to distinguish between those who already had the virus on entry to the hospital, and those who acquired it after admission.
That's neither here nor there.The government narrative would like you to believe that all these people are being rushed by paramedics spluttering and dying into hospital where they can finally be hooked up to to an oxygen tank. Whereas the reality is that it's likely that a sizeable proportion are just being admitted for a routine procedure etc and are returning positive results against the standard screening tests they perform at the hospital during their stay.
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