How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 16)

[Scrump]

Continued from here:
https://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&...

[Stay in Bed Instead]

[paulrockliffe]

In before the lock.

[Tuna]

[Countdown]

Question for both Remainers and leavers...... regardless of the pros and cons of Brexit did anybody NOT envisage this happening ?

Being completely honest this is exactly what I assumed would happen (well, either a complete WTO-style break, or something not far off but with various fig-leaves that Boris can use to pretend everything is OK).

[Tuna]

Countdown said:

Question for both Remainers and leavers...... regardless of the pros and cons of Brexit did anybody NOT envisage this happening ?.

Define "this"?

Expected negotiations to go right up to the deadline and beyond, sure.

After May, was not confident we could negotiate competently - pleasantly surprised on that front.

Fully expected there would be disruption around the period of leaving, and that it would be seized upon by those opposed to Brexit as evidence that "it's all going wrong".

I've got no expectations as to our final arrangements with Europe, other than that once the dust has settled, life will continue on pretty much as normal. I think both sides will struggle to point to changes so profound that justify the hyperbole and hysteria. However, politically we will continue to diverge, and that will please/upset some more than others.

[Garvin]

Countdown said:

Question for both Remainers and leavers...... regardless of the pros and cons of Brexit did anybody NOT envisage this happening ?

Being completely honest this is exactly what I assumed would happen (well, either a complete WTO-style break, or something not far off but with various fig-leaves that Boris can use to pretend everything is OK).

If you go back to the very earliest volumes you will see posts where quite a number of Leavers predicted that it would come down to a bum’s rush at the last minute because that is how the EU always do business. So, yes, quite a few Leavers envisaged precisely this scenario.

[768]

I always thought it'd go WTO before getting an agreement.

If anything, this is the most I've been unsure of that. Guy Verhofstadt was quite clear that the EU would make things difficult because of the starting point being a union. It seemed the obvious answer was to break apart first to move the focus onto mutually beneficial agreements.

If we'd done that years ago this could have been a distant memory.

[Digga]

Garvin said:

Countdown said:

Question for both Remainers and leavers...... regardless of the pros and cons of Brexit did anybody NOT envisage this happening ?

Being completely honest this is exactly what I assumed would happen (well, either a complete WTO-style break, or something not far off but with various fig-leaves that Boris can use to pretend everything is OK).

If you go back to the very earliest volumes you will see posts where quite a number of Leavers predicted that it would come down to a bum’s rush at the last minute because that is how the EU always do business. So, yes, quite a few Leavers envisaged precisely this scenario.

I have always opined that this was the way I saw the EU dealing with most crises or negotiations - to take them to the 11th hour.

I have to admit, with the benefit of hindsight, I grossly understimated the sheer number of 11th hours they could engineer.

[Stay in Bed Instead]

Digga said:

I have always opined that this was the way I saw the EU dealing with most crises or negotiations - to take them to the 11th hour.

I have to admit, with the benefit of hindsight, I grossly understimated the sheer number of 11th hours they could engineer.

Quite. They should have kicked us out at the first opportunity. Bloody UK kept asking for an extension though.

[hutchst]

Countdown said:

Question for both Remainers and leavers...... regardless of the pros and cons of Brexit did anybody NOT envisage this happening ?

Being completely honest this is exactly what I assumed would happen (well, either a complete WTO-style break, or something not far off but with various fig-leaves that Boris can use to pretend everything is OK).

I posted 3-odd years ago (might have been on a different forum) that there would be no agreement, because the UK would never sign up to the ongoing jurisdiction of the CJEU, and the CJEU would never agree to give up its jurisdiction over the UK courts.

[Troubleatmill]

A no deal would be better.

Start with a clean sheet - and get deal(s) on what we can agree on at a later date.

[Helicopter123]

It's a very positive sign that both sides are still talking, I think this demonstrates a real determination to get it done. The gaps may be large, but if both sides are prepared to compromise, perhaps we van yet secure a FTA with the EU.

[Troubleatmill]

Helicopter123 said:

It's a very positive sign that both sides are still talking, I think this demonstrates a real determination to get it done. The gaps may be large, but if both sides are prepared to compromise, perhaps we van yet secure a FTA with the EU.

The clock is still ticking.... Until it almost stops - there will not be a deal. ( Read Karrass )

[anonymous-user]

Troubleatmill said:

The clock is still ticking.... Until it almost stops - there will not be a deal. ( Read Karrass )

Why would anyone agree a deal before the absolutely last moment possible?

[Troubleatmill]

catweasle said:

Troubleatmill said:

The clock is still ticking.... Until it almost stops - there will not be a deal. ( Read Karrass )

Why would anyone agree a deal before the absolutely last moment possible?

Exactly.

But - there are those amongst these forums who lack this basic understanding.
I was providing a source for one of them to read from



One of the oldest tricks in the book - is that the company arrange a car to pick you up at the airport.
On the drive to the hotel - the question innocuously comes up "When are you flying back?"

Always establish the real deadline for the other party.

Edited by Troubleatmill on Tuesday 22 December 13:52

[mjb1]

Countdown said:

Question for both Remainers and leavers...... regardless of the pros and cons of Brexit did anybody NOT envisage this happening ?

Being completely honest this is exactly what I assumed would happen (well, either a complete WTO-style break, or something not far off but with various fig-leaves that Boris can use to pretend everything is OK).

Yes, I couldn't ever see a reasonable deal happening - we'd either take a st deal or leave with no deal. I'm actually surprised Boris hasn't folded yet, but I still suspect he will. My preferred option was always to leave with no deal, and then start relationship with the EU from a blank canvas. It's the only fair way to unravel this entaglement.

[saaby93]

Even if a deal isnt made before the deadline, one can still be made afterwards.

Surprised that it's already been agreed to have a border in the Irish Sea. May wasnt allowed that option with the coalition.

[Troubleatmill]

Countdown said:

Question for both Remainers and leavers...... regardless of the pros and cons of Brexit did anybody NOT envisage this happening ?

Even Liam Fox called it. "....if politics doesn't get in the way."

It's the EU. Of course politics will get in the way.

Business will adapt.

[Stay in Bed Instead]

Troubleatmill said:

Even Liam Fox called it. "....if politics doesn't get in the way."

It's the EU. Of course politics will get in the way.

Business will adapt.

Because UK politics never gets in the way.